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ing so much worse than any previous generation ever inherited are nothing new mortimer chambers in the introduction to the fall of rome the fall was foreseen and recorded by contemporaries at february 10 2020 no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest sunday february 9 2020 how the game is played the explanation of wage push inflation as i imagine it is simple we demand higher wages we get higher wages which increases costs to our employer so he raises his prices this increases the cost of living so we demand wages that are even higher we get another wage increase and the cycle continues there are two teams the employers and the employees the errs and the eees playing king of the hill whoever takes the hill receives an increase and whoever loses the hill will fight to take it back so as to receive another increase it s a good story but it s not the only story in town i tell the story of the king of the hill game with three teams the errs the eees and the fins the fins are a quiet bunch they don t even want to be king of the hill and they will help anyone who wants to make it to the top for a small fee they don t take sides either the fins if you stand back and watch the game you ll see fins helping errs up the hill you ll see fins helping eees up the hill and if you watch carefully you ll see fins making a little money no matter who gets to the top of the hill as the game progresses the errs and the eees come to realize how good it is to have fins helping them up the hill so they start using teams of fins to get them to the top of the hill of course using a team of fins costs more than using just one but both the errs and the eees think the extra cost is worth it as time goes by the teams get bigger and the cost of the fins increases everyone has lots of fins helping them up the hill and everyone realizes they need the fins everyone knows that if you give up your fins you ll never make it up the hill the fins have become indispensable even though they now cost more than we like if you have 10 fins to help you up the hill and your neighbor has 12 well you d better up your fin count to 14 and so it goes eventually we get to the point where our fins cost us so much that even when we get to the top of the hill and get our raise we fall behind because of the cost of the fins the funny thing is nobody likes that extra cost but everyone is willing to pay it because everybody knows how the game is played the widely accepted story of wage push inflation as i ve seen it is a two team game that story is wrong there are three teams two impatient teams the errs and the eees and one patient team the fins and somehow after all those struggles to make it to the top it turned out that the fins got to be the kings of the hill at february 09 2020 no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest saturday february 8 2020 a particular set of relative prices from money banking and the economy a monetarist view by barry n siegel under the heading high interest rates cause inflation myth 3 this myth is particularly popular in the business community and in congress members of this school sometimes called the interest cost push school insist that high interest rates are inflationary because they raise business costs that firms must recoup by raising their product prices interest cost push theorists rarely explore the reasons for higher interest rates they fail to note that a rise in interest rates unaccompanied by an increase in the ratio of aggregate demand to real aggregate output cannot be inflationary as a result they mistake a rise in a particular set of relative prices for a rise in the absolute price level what is the particular set of prices that are affected essentially all prices in an economy like ours before the crisis with extremely high reliance on credit a change in interest rates impacts almost everything additions to credit use compared to the quantity of money in the spending stream additions to credit in use came to about 10 of m1 in the late 1950s about 40 in the early 80s and were about equal to the quantity of m1 money shortly before the financial crisis it was different in the 1950s when siegel was in his 20s and presumably forming his view of the world it was different than it is now it was different in 1982 when his book was published more recently a change in interest rates affected just about everything after the crisis it dropped off but only because our additions to credit use dropped not because our accumulated reliance on credit dropped precipitously after all those years of adding to credit use and with no direct help from policy after the crisis we still carry a huge and costly debt that must be paid down the line on the graph runs low of late because we re not borrowing much these days that makes our economy slow but does little to get our existing debts paid down that line on the graph plummeted during the great recession because quantitative easing vastly increased the quantity of m1 money but conditions didn t improve because of it because that money didn t work its way out into the economy we know this because we didn t get the worrisome inflation that so many people were predicting ten or twelve years back it s all well and good to say a change in interest rates affects only a particular set of prices but the size of that particular set depends on how much we rely on credit at february 08 2020 4 comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest thursday february 6 2020 snippets the growth of financial cost from mine of 3 january financial profit rises as a share of total corporate profit before or during every recession shown on the graph except the 1974 and 1980 recessions which coincidentally can be attributed to rising oil prices financial profit rose from less than 6 of corporate profit in 1943 to more than 19 in 1970 and from 12 27 in 1981 to 42 in 2002 at february 06 2020 5 comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest labels the continuing cost problem wednesday february 5 2020 snippets finance is unique from mine of 3 january the growth of finance is not endlessly sustainable because it creates a gradually growing cost problem for those who pay the cost that is income to finance this growing cost problem at some point begins to reduce economic growth which creates a second problem declining income for those who pay the cost that is income to finance on the one hand the increasing cost of finance and on the other declining income growth in the non financial sector together they work like a vise squeezing the sector that is the source of income to finance the irony is that finance itself is the source of the cost problem at february 05 2020 no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest labels the continuing cost problem tuesday february 4 2020 snippets a cost problem from mine of 3 january could there be cost pressure that creates not recession but a continuing trend of decline it would have to be a long term continuing cost pressure one that even if resolved today returns tomorrow is it grasping at straws to say that there could be such a cost problem don t prices resolve that problem automatically when money growth is constrained isn t that what centuries of experience shows no prices can only resolve a continuing cost problem by rising that is by passing the problem on to the next guy note that a shock is a one time event rather than continuous relative price changes can resolve an imbalance created by a shock but when you have a continuing cost problem the price changes are endless and we call it inflation at february 04 2020 no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest labels the continuing cost problem monday february 3 2020 snippets volcker ignored the cost from mine of 3 january i have no problem with the idea that the price level cannot rise unless money allows it to happen but i do have a problem with volcker s assumption that rising cost does not matter when prices are rising because we have too much money cost is not likely to be a problem but when prices have to rise because costs are rising slowing the growth of money and credit does not solve the cost problem it may reduce inflation but it does not solve the problem volcker chose to ignore the cost problem economic growth slowed as a result in a cost push economy inflation is a solution to the cost problem putting extra money into the economy reduces the problem of problematic cost i think it s the wrong solution but restricting money growth makes the cost problem worse and that was volcker s solution at february 03 2020 no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest labels the continuing cost problem sunday february 2 2020 no valid ngrams at february 02 2020 no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest labels the continuing cost problem saturday february 1 2020 about 7 results at february 01 2020 no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest labels the continuing cost problem newer posts older posts home subscribe to posts atom why economists must think in terms of the cycle of civilization i ve been hearing the phrase late capitalism for so long that i m forced to conclude that the very concept of late cap looks like vigor to me went to harbor freight the other day when i left there was so much traffic i had to fight my way out of the parking lot at one p m on let s see if this one gets me into trouble as i write this it is mid october in an even numbered year elections are weeks away yesterday i saw republican candidates heavily adver not the rate of interest but the cost of finance not inflation but the decline of growth it is surely true that the price level cannot rise without a corresponding increase in the quantity of money or velocity or use of credit the most important difference between cost push and demand pull inflation i m not a fan of diagrams in economics but sometimes this is a screen capture of slide 36 from a slideshare presentatio federal debt is the measure of economic troubles in the private sector not the cause of them the cause is excessive private sector debt private debt is too big and too costly it slows the economy it slows income growth it makes decent jobs scarce we lost our greatness to excessive private sector debt we can regain american greatness by reducing private debt if we do so before china has all the greatness note that we have many policies to encourage the use of credit and no policies to encourage repayment of debt selected fred data free ebooks forever fadedpage levy institute publications art s old vigor page click folder tab to view contents quick quotes on debt sbt hover for the quote click for the source steve keen sbe thomas palley sbe palley again same source sbe arthurian spontaneous sbe arthurian sbe id a j toynbee a study of history unabridged vol 1 page 1 abridgement vol 1 thru 10 id mostly old cost push stuff 1937 the general theory of employment 1958 the phillips curve paper 1959 charles schultze recent inflation in the united states 1960 richard lipsey on the phillips curve 1960 samuelson and solow problem of achieving and maintaining a stable price level 1962 arthur okun potential gdp its measurement and significance 1968 friedman s presidential address the role of monetary policy or alt link 1970 milton friedman the counter revolution in monetary theory 1974 f a hayek prize lecture the pretense of knowledge 1977 thomas m humphrey on cost push theories of inflation in the pre war monetary literature id papers by johannes a schwarzer sbt samuelson and solow on the phillips curve and the menu of choice a retrospective 2013 sbe growth as an objective of economic policy in the early 1960s the role of aggregate demand 2014 sbe price stability versus full employment the phillips curve dilemma reconsidered 2016 sbe retrospectives cost push and demand pull inflation milton friedman and the cruel dilemma 2018 sbe id papers by norikazu takami 1950s cost push sbt baffling inflation cost push inflation theories in the late 1950s united states 2014 sbe the baffling new inflation how cost push inflation theories influenced policy debate in the late 1950s united states 2015 sbe id archive org links sbt archive org home sbe note at archive org the upper right corner search is for all of archive org to search the open book click the search icon on the left side of the window and use quotes around search phrases sbe historical statistics thru 1970 part 1 arrighi g the long twentieth century dalio r economic principles how the economic machine works delong h a profile of mathematical logic r c k ensor england 1870 1914 finley m i the ancient economy friedman m free to choose friedman m money mischief kissinger h the meaning of history reflections on spengler toynbee and kant leuchtenburg w franklin d roosevelt and the new deal leuchtenburg w the perils of prosperity lot ferdinand the end of the ancient world and the beginnings of the middle ages montagu a toynbee and history critical essays and reviews mullineux a w business cycles and financial crises quigley the evolution of civilizations rostovtzeff the social and economic history of the roman empire terborgh george the new economics tooke thomas an inquiry into the currency principle toynbee aj a study of history volumes i vi abridged wanniski jude the way the world works sbe id timelines industrial capitalism sbe mercantile capitalism sbe 10000 years of economy sbe id blog themes and on the pedestal these words appear my name is ozymandias king of kings look on my works ye mighty and despair nothing beside remains shelley toynbee maintained that the fate of civilizations is determined by their response to the challenges facing them stefan zenker the ideas of economists and political philosophers both when they are right and when they are wrong are more powerful than is commonly understood indeed the world is ruled by little else j m keynes economic policy encourages credit use and discourages the repayment of debt that s how we in the private sector got so indebted nathan becker attempts to describe complex interactions in the economy with overly simple adages can lead to incorrect conclusions meyer and tasci i remarked that a plurality of suffrages is no guarantee of truth where it is at all of difficult discovery as in such cases it is much more likely that it will be found by one than by many descartes i have thought it important not only to explain my own point of view but also to show in what respects it departs from the prevailing theory j m keynes blogthemes blog archive 2025 136 october 4 september 19 august 12 july 6 june 10 may 11 april 23 march 19 february 11 january 21 2024 100 december 15 november 9 october 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