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description= 10 posts published by moctavio during October 2008;
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the, in, venezuela, part, of, trial, to, blog, blogs, by, it, not, but, at, which, point, are, finances, trouble, oil, and, some, species, miami, venezuelan, maletagate, devil, excrement, archive, for, october, 2008, unknown, feed, subscribe, via, email, categories, all, miguel, octavio, blogroll, venezuelans, recent, posts, archives, pages, meta, stats, when, absolute, ignorance, reigns, 400, million, dollar, satellite, believe, or, ripley, revolution, from, blackouts, bytesout, ii, estimating, impact, low, prices, on, fiscal, picture, balance, payments, chavez, folly, he, owns, controls, everything, they, don, work, can, only, get, worse, special, eduardo, sends, great, pictures, xv, kauffman, gives, details, corruption, rackets, nothing, will, be, investigated, xiv, various, tidbits, as, wraps, up,
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the (301), and (98), that (68), this (42), has (41), for (41), #venezuela (34), billion (34), 000 (30), october (28), which (28), 2008 (27), was (27), with (26), oil (26), government (25), but (25), have (22), may (21), kauffmann (21), would (21), will (21), are (20), day (19), they (19), not (18), barrels (18), april (17), june (17), 2009 (17), all (17), had (17), you (17), country (17), million (17), march (16), venezuelan (16), been (16), november (15), january (15), february (15), 2007 (15), number (15), what (15), august (14), september (14), december (14), july (14), fonden (14), about (13), 2005 (13), said (13), thus (13), chavez (12), 2003 (12), 2004 (12), 2006 (12), 2010 (12), 2011 (12), 2012 (12), 2013 (12), 2014 (12), 2015 (12), mso (12), from (11), leave (11), there (11), duran (11), right (11), one (11), per (11), barrel (11), posted (10), comment (10), left (10), part (10), can (10), two (10), pdvsa (10), who (10), like (10), cattleya (10), because (9), trial (9), more 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e is certainly quite versatile if it will satisfy both needs it certainly has no remote sensing capabilities to complete the tour of ignorance and misleading statements we were told that it is the ministry of science and technology that runs the project another giant step for ignorance and false advertising in venezuela what s next self sufficiency in food by buying argentinean farms and importing their production posted in venezuela leave a comment believe it or not not ripley s but the revolution s october 28 2008 the general prosecutor called the maletagate trial in miami a media show with no relevance to venezuela according to her this trial has been going on for very long i guess all of the accusations against prominent government figures are irrelevant to this bastion of venezuelan justice and given the fact that the suitcase full of cash was taken to argentina about 15 months ago it may be good to remind her of the trial of the cops accused with deaths on april 11 th 2002 who have been detained for four years and have yet to be brought to trial and then just like that this same lady turns around and says the accusations against opposition leader manuel rosales brought up by president chavez and maracaiboâ s mayor di martino will be investigated in quick and expedite fashion this despite the fact that she has no clue what the accusation of corruption is about and no formal case has been presented yet what a difference between the two cases no and in the same case the venezuelan national assembly discussed today opening an investigation against manuel rosales since they are there the assembly will also investigate him for trying to kill chavez faster than a speeding bullet in the middle of an electoral campaign such nice people and then as a director of the electoral board says that the board should investigate chavez taking advantage of his position the head of the board says that the institution she presides has no accusations that the president is taking any advantage of his position funny i guess that director must be irrelevant or does not exist no posted in venezuela leave a comment from blackouts to bytesout in venezuela october 28 2008 after three large scale blackouts in the country so far in 2008 today venezuela had a huge bytesout when apparently an optical fiber was cut by an excavator the country was left with no connection to the internet outside of venezuela due to this and about four hours after it occurred the minister of telecommunications proudly reported that 80 of the service had been reestablished this all goes well with the revolution s slogan a paso de vencedores at the pace of winners except they seem to do it all backwards posted in venezuela leave a comment at which point are venezuela s finances in trouble part ii estimating the impact of low oil prices on the fiscal picture and the balance of payments october 27 2008 in order to see how well venezuela may deal with the crisis we have to quantify the assets the government has right now there are two aspects to this first one needs to quantify dollar based assets in order to be able to satisfy import needs and debt service second one needs to quantify local currency assets in order to quantify the fiscal picture it is not easy to know how much is out there by moving funds out of the central bank and into the development funds one does not have regular information as to the assets available thus we can only look back at most numbers as of june 1 st venezuela currently has us 39 billion in reserves which corresponds to roughly 9 months of imports i have never liked to use this number because panic begins way before the money looks like it is dwindling down i prefer to leave international reserves outside the calculation so that i can look at how much money the government has in bolivars as well otherwise i would be double counting because those bolivars came from the backing of those same reserves thus we look at the dollars and bolivars held by various institutions and later we add them up fonden as of june 30 th fonden had us 14 7 billion between cash and investments however us 7 7 of that has been committed to projects that are being executed and us 2 51 billion have been spent or are due leaving us 4 41 billion we know fonden has left about us 1 4 1 5 billion in argentinean boden 15 s purchase at 65 but which currently trade around 25 representing a loss of us 560 million additionally fonden had us 525 million in lehman brothers instruments which are simply unavailable for use thus fonden has no more than us 3 3 billion available some of which may be invested in sovereign debt which is at lower prices total fonden us 3 3 billion not all of it may be in us but given the law regulating fonden i would assume it all is bandes according to its financial statement bandes has more or less us 2 7 billion a number that has changed little in the last six months however other government funds different than fonden keep their foreign assets in us at bandes in june this amounted to us 7 9 billion pdvsa reportedly pdvsa has us 3 billion in cash and bs 3 billion in cash fiem fiem has us 0 8 billion banco del tesoro us 0 3 billion bs the government has in the banking system bs 18 billion bs the government has at the central bank bs 4 6 billion various bs bs 3 billion total assets in us fonden us 3 3 bil bandes us 10 6 pdvsa us 3 0 bil fiem us 0 8 bil tesoro us 0 3 billion total dollars us 18 0 bil total assets in bs pdvsa bs 3 0 bil banks bs 18 0 bil central bank bs 4 6 bil various bs 3 0 bil total bs 28 6 bil let s look first at the budget which is us 89 billion with no salary increases additional expenditures and the like local revenues us 38 billion oil revenues us 38 billion assuming average us 80 per barrel local debt issues us 5 billion deficit us 8 billion this can be compensated with bandes and fonden funds alternatively a 30 devaluation would yield us 10 billion thus the numbers don t look terrible at us 80 per barrel at us 60 there are problems because you need and extra us 10 billion thus you would deplete fonden and bandes and have to devalue it thus looks like we will see a devaluation use part of the bandes and fonden funds and i suspect there will be an increase in both the value added tax as well as the implementation of a debit tax before you think i am too optimistic for 2009 i really don t think the average price in 2009 will be below us 60 per barrel even if it looks that way right now oil prices are likely to overcompensate on the down side as much as they did on the upside given the uncertainty in the future of the world economy prices are acting right now like the worst case scenario is likely i am not sure that is going to be the case more worrisome is the balance of payments issue revenues from oil exports us 80 per barrel us 38 billion other exports us 6 billion total us 44 billion imports this year us 54 billion deficit us 10 billion thus this is really a problem because you would have to use all of fonden and bandes us in order to satisfy dollar needs or draw down international reserves the problem is that m2 is getting to be us 80 billion so if reserves drop people are going to get quite nervous note that this is the optimistic scenario of us 80 per barrel things would get really critical at us 60 per barrel even more worrisome note that the government would have no money to intervene the parallel swap market which could go to stratospheric levels and thus a devaluation looks inevitable finally i have not included in any of this chavez folly of nationalizating cemex petrozuata cerro negro sidor and banco de venezuela all of those add up to us 14 billion by late 2009 one may expect one of the two heavy oil arbitrations to come to a close and chavez is likely to pay banco de venezuela us 1 2 billion before the end of the year it certainly looks like things will get very complicated at these levels of oil prices for the venezuelan oil basket in both the ficsal and balance of payment scenarios a devaluation certainly looks like a sure thing in the first half of 2009 posted in venezuela leave a comment chavez folly he owns and controls everything but they don t work it can only get worse october 21 2008 on sunday venezuela had its third large scale blackout of the year blackouts occur daily all over the country but these large scale ones are a new phenomenon which coincidentally has occurred just a year after the government took over all of the private electricity companies in the country as has been the case in each one the word sabotage was mentioned immediately by a number of government officials but as usual there is no evidence of that yesterday the head of the government s power company admitted it was a bad adjustment in the protection system that led to the blackout while the usual fanatics such as the president of the electric power workers union who doubles as a pro chavez deputy of the national assembly continued talking about sabotage meanwhile the prosecutor detained the three workers responsible for the bad adjustment in fact the president himself praised the speed with which electricity was restored as evidence of the effectiveness of the state s electric power system unfortunately chavez said that it only took 15 minutes for power to be restored this must have been for the presidential palace because i certainly had no lights for over two hours and some parts of the country had to wait as much as six hours to see the light a government official actually said about four hours after the blackout that it had been restored in 80 of the country contradicting the president or those that suck up to him by hiding the truth so the pantomime continues while hugo chavez promises a refinery one day a pipeline the next and to solve the electricity problem before the end of the year nothing happens a government that does not believe in know how and expertise who thinks that anyone can do any job including being president is setting back the country a few decades the money that should have been used to improve the electric power infrastructure of the country was instead used to satisfy another whim by the autocrat he spent a couple of billion us dollars buying out perfectly functioning electric private companies while the rest of the power system own by the government deteriorated just look at the power generation plant planta centro a 2 gw plant owned and run by cadafe the stateâ s electric company so the government spent money on buying working companies when oil was high rather than invest in repairing or building new electrical infrastructure substitute electric power for oil telecom water services whatever you like and you know what may happen of course in chavez folly oil will stabilize around us 100 per barrel but guess what it ain t happening as the venezuelan oil basket hit us 68 last week down to the levels that gave the government so much problems in 2007 except that the cost of producing venezuelan oil is up from around us 21 per barrel to us 28 per barrel during that period posted in venezuela leave a comment some special species october 20 2008 this is my very special cattleya violacea not only is it free flowering but this time it sent up two shoots with ten flowers six and four as shown on the left this despite the fact that we crossed it in april with cattleya violacea muse and i removed the fruit two weeks ago on the right a close up of the six flowers above left you can see what good sahep and color thisf violacea has on the right a cattleya phalenopiss ever spring light on the left is the first flowering a cattleya jenmanii kathy x color which i bougth from xavier caballero on the right is the small flower which is large above is the second flower of the cattleya jenmanii above i have placed a brand new pencil behind it so people can see how large it is on the right is blc morning glory x lc bonansa two pictures of the same unidentified dendrobium i love these posted in orchids leave a comment eduardo sends some great pictures of species october 19 2008 eduardo m sends some very nice pictures of venezuelan and brazilian species spectacular specimen plant of cattleya percivaliana on the left and a very large overlapped cattleya percivaliana on the right nice cattleya jenmanii on the left cattleya walkeriana from brazil on the right another cattleya percivaliana on the left with a very nice lip and oncidium onustum on the right posted in orchids leave a comment the miami venezuelan maletagate trial part xv kauffman gives details of corruption rackets nothing will be investigated in venezuela october 19 2008 co conspirator carlos kauffmann who has pleaded guilty of being an agent for the venezuelan government in trying to cover up the origin of the 800 000 dollars in antoninis suitcase testified on friday without the jury being present as explained well by javier caceres in notiven the reason for this testimony is that the judge will allow the defense to tell the jury that duran was entrapped by the fbi into committing a crime which the prosecution wants to counteract by showing that duran had a long history of corruption and services with the chavez government and trying to fix the antonini problem was just a natural continuation of durans record what the prosecutor had the judge do was give details on the earlier statements by kauffmann on the many ways they made money off corrupt officials in the current venezuelan government this had been included in an earlier affidavit discussed here in this blog but this time kauffmann gave a lot more details including many names el nacional has made a diagram of all of the links and connections of the people involved with maletagate with government officials in venezuela and argentina kauffman began talking about the national guard he mentioned sic names including general victor jose molina who has denied doing â œbusiness with kauffmann but did admit knowing him he said these people handled the finances and purchasing within the national guard we were their bankers said kauffmann we handled millions of dollars for them charging them 10 which i would divide with duran we handled millions in cash said kauffmann with the governor of cojedes johnny yanez rangel kauffmann said he had a long history recall that yanez rangel was part of a protest in front of the us embassy when kauffmann was detained where he defended his entrepreneur friends and that local reporter leocenis garcia showed that it was kauffmann who paid yanez vacation at the luxurious llao llao hotel in bariloche argentina according to kauffmann they would direct the deposits from cojedes state to bancoro a regional bank charging 10 of which the governor would get a 30 kickback they would hold and manage that 30 for the governor and charge him 10 for it pr year which kauffmann would split with duran duran and kauffmann also got contracts for public works of the order of us 10 million of which they wou...
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