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description= 10 posts published by moctavio during June 2010;
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the (450), and (137), that (83), for (55), this (51), but (46), #government (42), was (42), food (42), have (40), they (39), you (37), not (37), with (36), chavez (35), from (34), has (33), all (32), which (32), venezuela (31), are (30), his (28), june (27), 2010 (27), will (25), may (24), much (21), can (19), year (19), how (19), 2009 (18), now (17), 2008 (17), who (17), more (17), years (17), about (16), october (16), march (16), 2004 (16), 2007 (16), than (16), november (15), january (15), february (15), april (15), 2005 (15), pdvsa (15), billion (15), pdval (15), comments (14), august (14), september (14), december (14), july (14), 2006 (14), new (14), what (14), country (14), does (14), some (14), oil (14), 000 (14), 2003 (13), into (13), these (13), like (13), even (13), market (13), imports (13), 2011 (12), 2012 (12), 2013 (12), 2014 (12), 2015 (12), would (12), were (12), money (12), last (12), tons (12), time (11), venezuelan (11), one (11), when (11), thus (11), there (11), less (11), only (11), then (11), where (11), report (10), posted (10), should (10), out (10), them (10), think (10), used (10), get (10), end (10), robolution (10), million (10), just (10), too (10), bad (10), other (9), their (9), swap (9), bonds (9), sector (9), after (9), 2016 (8), while (8), because (8), well (8), according (8), part (8), president (8), foreign (8), currency (8), been (8), going (8), total (8), things (8), over (8), want (8), news (8), imported (8), private (8), case (8), import (8), devil (7), those (7), any (7), its (7), price (7), had (7), graph (7), prices (7), per (7), first (7), work (7), people (7), workers (7), know (7), storage (7), jaua (7), street (7), excrement (6), create (6), another (6), something (6), why (6), course (6), back (6), uncategorized (6), opposition (6), fonden (6), natera (6), don (6), never (6), most (6), six (6), problems (6), needs (6), cadivi (6), dollars (6), could (6), look (6), amount (6), stuff (6), him (6), spoiled (6), right 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ame of the parliamentary elections or ask former vice president carrizales who stood up for the military in the face of a cuban invasion in key military positions and was quickly replaced by the quiet sociologist with the name that always seems short a consonant they are all gone for now but they may return like comets much like diosdado has reappeared whenever things were not working well ideology imports little food and feeds few mouths and every time chavez has shifted to the pol potians he has eventually found the need to bring back the right to straighten out the mess for now you can assume the worst case scenario think banks think globo think pol pot the total destruction of a system in the name of a nebulous idea which is still a work in progress eleven years after chavez ascension to power only a quick deterioration could shift the balance of power at this time and chavez needs a magician to stop the unraveling of the venezuelan economy which may lead to the resurgence of the radical right and the cycle would begin once again posted in uncategorized venezuela 20 comments not much news in the teflon robolution in venezuela june 23 2010 they want to shut our mouths off bit all they have managed is to shut our noses off yes not much stuff to blog about the way things are going in venezuela the word news requires something beyond imagination because the routine just does not cut it here in venezuela anymore chavez used to be a teflon president but we now seem to have a teflon government nothing sticks to it nothing scandalizes everything in the end is the opposition s fault and or absolutely irrelevant take the by now 120 000 tons of putrid food imported by the government it turns out that the word putrid is just an exaggeration it is just expired food or some socialist concept like that and by the way it is mostly the private sectors fault according to the chief mismanager the president of pdvsa rafael ramirez according to this genius who will go into history as the destroyer of pdvsa the private sector is responsible for their putrid food because they were in charge of the ships and the storage companies funny the storage companies were nationalized long ago and in any case if this were the problem the government would be finding lots of private sector spoiled food instead every time they raid the private sector companies they take the food away for hoarding but somehow it is never spoiled bad or whatever euphemism you want to find for a large fraction of what happens to the food brought in by the government oh how come the cubans who run the ports are exempt from fault oh yes they are cubans and then you wonder when the comptroller surfaces and says that he started looking into the rotten food two years ago are you kidding me clodosvaldo that was 120 000 tons ago what have you done since then of course leopoldo lopez used money for one purpose to pay a chavez ordered salary increase it only took you six months to ban him from running for office i guess the pdval or putrival guys can be elected for the next national assembly at least they will know where to look for the corruption which brings me then to the people s ombudswoman who always comes to the defense of the teflon guys but seems rather quiet on the subject of the possible poisoning of the population she should be concerned after all the spoiled food was not meant for the oligarchs but for those that vote for hugo or at least used to what morals does this woman have as diego arria told chavez i tell her see you in the hague and i include clodosvaldo and his double pension in this too and speaking of those pensioned off how about funny man norman puerta the former and retired anti drug czar of venezuela he was caught with a million dollars in that idyllic country but it has nothing to do with drugs or anything illegal it was just a misunderstanding over the money he saved just a million bucks of savings for a guy who made made maybe us 1 000 2 000 a month but you know the people who work for the chavez teflonic government particularly in the anti drug sector they lead spartan lives after 11 years in power they can save a million bucks i s just discipline even if you don t believe the math it would only take him 500 months to make that million and that is only 41 6 years chavez should last that much if things keep rolling along the way they are and in the middle of all these irrelevant news chavez issues a decree saying that nobody absolutely nobody can negotiate a collective contract agreement without his authorization never mind that this has been the silent rule of law for the last five years it is an intrinsic part of xxist century socialism that unions are out and chavez s party psuv is in thus no negotiations no salary increases no unions and some people still think this is a left wing revolution neither the workers nor the people can revolt in venezuela it is all about hugo but thanks god these are quiet times not much happening not much to write when something does happen you can be sure i will report back to you beyond the banalities of the robolution like those described above in the meantime i will do like the opposition leaders work on my stuff even if i don t want to get elected posted in venezuela 38 comments a look at the foreign currency that the venezuelan government may have in 2010t june 20 2010 one of the mysteries this year is why the government has been so stingy with the exchange control office cadivi as well as its decision not to supply more foreign currency to any alternative market despite higher oil prices that is why i was mesmerized by the following barclays graph which was published this week in this graph barclays plots for each of the last six years how much cadivi gave out to importers how much the parallel market traded and how much the government issued in bonds the first surprise because i had not looked at the totals for a while was that the swap market was larger than cadivi last year what this means is simply that pdvsa preferred to change at the highers swap market rate than at the bs 2 15 per rate which prevailed last year this is because in the end the government via the treasury fonden or whatever other mechanism was the main provider of foreign currency to the swap market thus in the end it is the government that provides both markets thus in some sense it is better to look at the total cadivi swap market bonds and subtract the bonds to get an idea of what the last few years were like i plot that in the next graph together with the price of venezuela s oil basket sort of assuming production is constant which it is not in the above graph the green line is the average price for the venezuelan oil basket for the year in us dollars while the blue line is the total amount of us dollars in billions given to importers by cadivi and or purchased in the swap market plus bonds issued which in the end measures the number of dollars to which the government had access on any given year the red line simply subtracts the issuance of bonds from that total it is a measure of the deficit of foreign currency the government had which forced it to resort to issue bonds let s look at this graph historically in 2004 the oil basket was us 31 85 and the government had some us 25 billion of which it had to issue us 5 billion in bonds the total amount for 2004 2005 and 2006 scaled reasonably with the oil price in all three years the government issued us 5 billion in bonds to complement its needs using us 25 billion 37 up 50 from 2004 billion and us 40 billion up 8 from 2005 as oil went from us 31 85 to us 48 36 up 51 8 from 2004 and us 52 31 up 8 from 2005 per barrel in the same years basically the increases were almost identical from year to year then in 2007 oil prices jumped by 64 but the government needed us 83 billion a 107 5 increase in foreign currency in 2007 over the previous year including us 19 billion in financing and here is where things get murky in 2008 with oil dropping 62 5 the government used up us 75 billion barely 9 6 below 2007 despite the dramatic drop in oil prices how could this be well the only possibility is that the government used funds from the development funds fonden taken from international reserves and other savings in foreign currency to fund part of the needs for 2008 and it did the same thing in 2009 thus from 2007 2009 the government used 75 more foreign currency than in 2006 but the average oil price in those three years was only up 29 and then we come to 2010 this year the average price of the oil basket is running roughly at the level of last year in 2009 it was 67 7 dollars on average so far this year it has been us 70 26 less than a 3 increase except that it is going to be quite difficult to issue new bonds subtract us 11 billion from last year and there will not be as much in fonden as there was in 2009 in fact fonden began 2009 with us 19 billion and this year at no point has it had more than us 9 or 10 billion thus the total in the graph for 2010 will have to be around us 50 billion once you subtract no new issues half the money likely more in fonden finally pdvsa has higher cash flow needs thus the number may be even smaller as international reserves have been dropping even with lower cadivi outflows which implies pdvsa is handing out less money to the central bank what this all means is that there will much less money for imports which will only be complicated by the banning of the swap market which used to provide an alternative to the official market for importers needing items to complete their manufacturing and or buying spare parts this will translate into shortages which i am surprised has not intensified as of yet most manufacturers importers say that they typically have about six weeks of inventory which means we should start seeing the impact of these foreign currency problems in less than a month note some of the money from the bond offerings flowed back into the swap market thus i may be double counting somewhat but this changes little the conclusions posted in uncategorized 37 comments when an opinion becomes close to a crime and the real crimes go unpunished in venezuela june 17 2010 i don t think and anyone that thinks differently than me is screwed in another displayed of intolerance hugo chavez reacted violently to the statements by the president of the medical federation douglas leon natera who was extremely critical of the graduates of the integral medical community program to whom chavez went personally to give them their diplomas natera says that this program does not create the replacement to medical doctors as chavez and the government would like you to believe according to natera and others these graduates are part of an improvised program with cuban teachers who are not even doctors and little practical experience the training is apparently done with movies and pictures an the trainees don t see real patients and practice as doctors usually are trained the government plans to now insert these improvised medical trainees into hospitals as if they were fully trained doctors of course chavez told them never to treat an oligarch in a new twist to the hippocratic oath that these graduates lack anyway chavez reaction oh very simple he qualified natera s well founded opinion based on technical elements as close to a crime as natera s statements according to the all powerful dictator are close to a crime because they create alarm in the population of course the deaths from mistreatment and improvisation in the country s government hospitals do not create alarm and nobody is responsible because no one in this government assumes any responsibility for its errors starting with the autocrat himself but mr natera should watch out for himself you can be sure the prosecutor already opened an investigation into his almost crime while those crimes committed by these fake doctors while illegally practicing medicine will go unnoticed and unpunished what else is new posted in uncategorized 31 comments older posts june 2010 m t w t f s s 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 may jul unknown feed an error has occurred the feed is probably down try again later subscribe to blog via email enter your email address to subscribe to this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email email address subscribe join 1 851 other subscribers categories digressions dissidentmilitary el excremento del diablo granmalies latinamerica maletagatetrial orchids pictures posters requena files rr models stanford bank tascon s fascist list technology the fable the fonden papers the opposition candidates uncategorized venezuela all blogs by miguel octavio el excremento del diablo miguel s charts miguel s orchids the devil s excrement blogroll alfredo caracas gringo daniel excremento del diablo gustavo coronel javier letter from venezuela liberal venezolano megaresistencia mi venezuela pedro mario quico y juan urru veneconomia blogs by venezuelans bruni the venezuelan libertarian recent posts hyper inflated arepa index reaches all time high again hyper inflated arepa index hits an all time high the devil is back with uii why doesn t the government change course something has to give archives march 2018 january 2018 november 2017 april 2017 march 2017 february 2017 october 2016 july 2016 june 2016 may 2016 april 2016 march 2016 february 2016 january 2016 december 2015 november 2015 october 2015 september 2015 august 2015 july 2015 june 2015 may 2015 april 2015 march 2015 february 2015 january 2015 december 2014 november 2014 october 2014 september 2014 august 2014 july 2014 june 2014 may 2014 april 2014 march 2014 february 2014 january 2014 december 2013 november 2013 october 2013 september 2013 august 2013 july 2013 june 2013 may 2013 april 2013 march 2013 february 2013 january 2013 december 2012 november 2012 october 2012 september 2012 august 2012 july 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