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description= 15 posts published by Lars Syll during October 2016;
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economics, the, and, in, what, of, is, mainstream, econometrics, science, be, svensk, universitetsutbildning, fritt, fall, to, recent, comments, lars, syll, some, unsettled, questions, macroeconomic, theory, rabbits, principle, triumph, ideology, over, non, ideological, valuefree, ll, dipped, truth, perils, calling, your, pet, cat, dog, ii, it, takes, make, real, statistical, significance, tests, do, not, validate, models, why, values, cannot, taken, at, face, value, economists, dissing, people, that, want, rethink, bridge, between, model, reality, on, proper, use, mathematics, posts, policy, reading, list, categories, archives,
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avoid motivated reasoning that validates what you want to hear yours truly is to say the least far from convinced the alarm that sets off in my brain is that this rather than being helpful for understanding real world economic issues sounds more like an ill advised plaidoyer for voluntarily taking on a methodological straight jacket of unsubstantiated and known to be false assumptions modern expected utility theory is a good example of this leaving the specification of preferences without almost any restrictions whatsoever every imaginable evidence is safely made compatible with the all embracing theory and a theory without informational content never risks being empirically tested and found falsified used in mainstream economics thought experimental activities it may of course be very handy but totally void of any empirical value utility theory has like so many other economic theories morphed into an empty theory of everything and a theory of everything explains nothing just as gary becker s economics of everything it only makes nonsense out of economic science using false assumptions mainstream modelers can derive whatever conclusions they want wanting to show that all economists consider austerity to be the right policy just e g assume all economists are from chicago and all economists from chicago consider austerity to be the right policy the conclusions follows by deduction but is of course factually totally wrong models and theories building on that kind of reasoning is nothing but a pointless waste of time mainstream economics today is mainly an approach in which you think the goal is to be able to write down a set of empirically untested assumptions and then deductively infer conclusions from them when applying this deductivist thinking to economics economists usually set up as if models based on a set of tight axiomatic assumptions from which consistent and precise inferences are made the beauty of this procedure is of course that if the axiomatic premises are true the conclusions necessarily follow the snag is that if the models are to be relevant we also have to argue that their precision and rigour still holds when they are applied to real world situations they often don t do for the simple reason that empty theoretical exercises of this kind do not tell us anything about the world when addressing real economies the idealizations necessary for the deductivist machinery to work simply don t hold so how should we evaluate the search for ever greater precision and the concomitant arsenal of mathematical and formalist models to a large extent the answer hinges on what we want our models to perform and how we basically understand the world the world as we know it has limited scope for certainty and perfect knowledge its intrinsic and almost unlimited complexity and the interrelatedness of its parts prevent the possibility of treating it as constituted by atoms with discretely distinct separable and stable causal relations our knowledge accordingly has to be of a rather fallible kind to search for deductive precision and rigour in such a world is self defeating the only way to defend such an endeavour is to restrict oneself to prove things in closed model worlds why we should care about these and not ask questions of relevance is hard to see econometrics and the rabbits principle 29 oct 2016 at 19 03 posted in statistics econometrics comments off on econometrics and the rabbits principle in econometrics one often gets the feeling that many of its practitioners think of it as a kind of automatic inferential machine input data and out comes causal knowledge this is like pulling a rabbit from a hat great but first you have to put the rabbit in the hat and this is where assumptions come in to the picture the assumption of imaginary superpopulations is one of the many dubious assumptions used in modern econometrics and as clint ballinger has highlighted this is a particularly questionable rabbit pulling assumption inferential statistics are based on taking a random sample from a larger population and attempting to draw conclusions about a the larger population from that data and b the probability that the relations between measured variables are consistent or are artifacts of the sampling procedure however in political science economics development studies and related fields the data often represents as complete an amount of data as can be measured from the real world an apparent population it is not the result of a random sampling from a larger population nevertheless social scientists treat such data as the result of random sampling because there is no source of further cases a fiction is propagated the data is treated as if it were from a larger population a superpopulation where repeated realizations of the data are imagined imagine there could be more worlds with more cases and the problem is fixed what draw from this imaginary superpopulation does the real world set of cases we have in hand represent this is simply an unanswerable question the current set of cases could be representative of the superpopulation and it could be an extremely unrepresentative sample a one in a million chance selection from it the problem is not one of statistics that need to be fixed rather it is a problem of the misapplication of inferential statistics to non inferential situations economics the triumph of ideology over science 29 oct 2016 at 11 24 posted in economics comments off on economics the triumph of ideology over science research shows not only that individuals sometimes act differently than standard economic theories predict but that they do so regularly systematically and in ways that can be understood and interpreted through alternative hypotheses competing with those utilised by orthodox economists to most market participants and indeed ordinary observers this does not seem like big news in fact this irrationality is no news to the economics profession either john maynard keynes long ago described the stock market as based not on rational individuals struggling to uncover market fundamentals but as a beauty contest in which the winner is the one who guesses best what the judges will say adam smith s invisible hand the idea that free markets lead to efficiency as if guided by unseen forces is invisible at least in part because it is not there for more than 20 years economists were enthralled by so called rational expectations models which assumed that all participants have the same if not perfect information and act perfectly rationally that markets are perfectly efficient that unemployment never exists except when caused by greedy unions or government minimum wages and where there is never any credit rationing that such models prevailed especially in america s graduate schools despite evidence to the contrary bears testimony to a triumph of ideology over science unfortunately students of these graduate programmes now act as policymakers in many countries and are trying to implement programmes based on the ideas that have come to be called market fundamentalism good science recognises its limitations but the prophets of rational expectations have usually shown no such modesty joseph stiglitz share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky economics non ideological and valuefree i ll be dipped 27 oct 2016 at 21 29 posted in economics 3 comments i ve subsequently stayed away from the minimum wage literature for a number of reasons first it cost me a lot of friends people that i had known for many years for instance some of the ones i met at my first job at the university of chicago became very angry or disappointed they thought that in publishing our work we were being traitors to the cause of economics as a whole david card back in 1992 new jersey raised the minimum wage by 18 per cent while its neighbour state pennsylvania left its minimum wage unchanged unemployment in new jersey should according to mainstream economics textbooks have increased relative to pennsylvania however when economists david card and alan krueger gathered information on fast food restaurants in the two states it turned out that unemployment had actually decreased in new jersey relative to that in pennsylvania counter to mainstream demand theory we had an anomalous case of a backward sloping supply curve lo and behold but of course when facts and theory don t agree it s the facts that have to be wrong the inverse relationship between quantity demanded and price is the core proposition in economic science which embodies the pre supposition that human choice behavior is sufficiently rational to allow predictions to be made just as no physicist would claim that water runs uphill no self respecting economist would claim that increases in the minimum wage increase employment such a claim if seriously advanced becomes equivalent to a denial that there is even minimal scientific content in economics and that in consequence economists can do nothing but write as advocates for ideological interests fortunately only a handful of economists are willing to throw over the teaching of two centuries we have not yet become a bevy of camp following whores james m buchanan in wall street journal april 25 1996 economics non ideological and valuefree i ll be dipped what is truth in economics 27 oct 2016 at 15 11 posted in economics 3 comments in my view scientific theories are not to be considered true or false in constructing such a theory we are not trying to get at the truth or even to approximate to it rather we are trying to organize our thoughts and observations in a useful manner robert aumann what a handy view of science how reassuring for all of you who have always thought that believing in the tooth fairy make you understand what happens to kids teeth now a nobel prize winning economist tells you that if there are such things as tooth fairies or not doesn t really matter scientific theories are not about what is true or false but whether they enable us to organize and understand our observations what aumann and other defenders of scientific storytelling forgets is that potential explanatory power achieved in thought experimental models is not enough for attaining real explanations model explanations are at best conjectures and whether they do or do not explain things in the real world is something we have to test to just believe that you understand or explain things better with thought experiments is not enough without a warranted export certificate to the real world model explanations are pretty worthless proving things in models is not enough truth ought to be as important a concept in economics as it is in real science the perils of calling your pet cat a dog 27 oct 2016 at 11 05 posted in statistics econometrics 1 comment since econometrics doesn t content itself with only making optimal predictions but also aspires to explain things in terms of causes and effects econometricians need loads of assumptions most important of these are additivity and linearity important simply because if they are not true your model is invalid and descriptively incorrect and when the model is wrong well then it s wrong the assumption of additivity and linearity means that the outcome variable is in reality linearly related to any predictors and that if you have several predictors then their combined effect is best described by adding their effects together this assumption is the most important because if it is not true then even if all other assumptions are met your model is invalid because you have described it incorrectly it s a bit like calling your pet cat a dog you can try to get it to go in a kennel or to fetch sticks or to sit when you tell it to but don t be surprised when its behaviour isn t what you expect because even though you ve called it a dog it is in fact a cat similarly if you have described your statistical model inaccurately it won t behave itself and there s no point in interpreting its parameter estimates or worrying about significance tests of confidence intervals the model is wrong andy field svensk universitetsutbildning i fritt fall ii 26 oct 2016 at 18 02 posted in education school comments off on svensk universitetsutbildning i fritt fall ii jag sprang nyligen på en sammanställning av genusdoktorsavhandlingar från 2014 många godbitar men en av dem var särskilt anmärkningsvärd nämligen nummer 19 i uppräkningen det handlar om doktorsavhandlingen rum rytm och resande från linköpings universitet pdf sammanställningen sammanfattar avhandlingen undersöker järnvägstationer som fysiska platser och sociala rum ur könsperspektiv kimstad pendeltågsstation norrköpings järnvägsstation och stockholms centralstation ingår i studien resultaten visar att järnvägsstationerna reproducerar könsmaktsordningen och att detta påverkar både män som kvinnor som vistas där en doktorand har alltså ägnat minst 4 5 år och flera miljoner skattekronor åt att besöka järnvägsstationer och komma fram till att järnvägsstationerna reproducerar könsmaktsordningen doktorandens chef har planerat detta arbete och chefens chefer har godkänt det dessutom har en betygskommitté med externa granskare bedömt och skrivit under på att doktorsavhandlingen håller måttet det var katten men det blir värre doktorsavhandlingen sammanfattas på engelska det börjar med results from the study show that individuals in different ways are affected by gendered power relations that dwell in rhythms of collective believes and in shape of materialized objects that encounter the commuters when visiting the railway station while the rhythms of masculine seriality contains believes of males as potentially violent as defenders and as bread winners the rhythms of female seriality contains believes of women as primary mothers and housewives of women as primary victim of sexual violence and of objectification of women s bodies as either decent or as sexually available to heterosexual men rytmer av könsmaktsordningen poetiskt ekvalist ja inför sådant tyckmyckentrutat pseudo vetenskapligt blaj kan man inte annat än taga sig för pannan mitt eget favoritexempel på detta vetenskapliga skojeri är hämtat ur ett nummer av pedagogisk forskning i sverige 2 3 2014 där författaren till artikeln en pedagogisk relation mellan människa och häst på väg mot en pedagogisk filosofisk utforskning av mellanrummet ger följande intressanta programförklaring med en posthumanistisk ansats belyser och reflekterar jag över hur både människa och häst överskrider sina varanden och hur det öppnar upp ett mellanrum med dimensioner av subjektivitet kroppslighet och ömsesidighet och så säger man att svensk universitetsutbildning är i kris undrar varför what it takes to make economics a real science 26 oct 2016 at 09 23 posted in economics 1 comment what is science one brief definition runs a systematic knowledge of the physical or material world most definitions em...
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