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description= 15 posts published by Lars Syll during February 2021;
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in moving forward another way to say this is that all inference is about generalizing from sample to population to predicting the outcomes of hypothetical interventions on new cases you can t escape the leap of generalization even a perfectly clean randomized experiment is typically of interest only to the extent that it generalizes to new people not included in the original study i agree but that s also why we so often fail even when having the best intentions when it comes to making generalizations in social sciences what strikes me again and again when taking part of the results of randomized experiments is that they really are very similar to theoretical models they all have the same basic problem they are built on rather artificial conditions and have difficulties with the trade off between internal and external validity the more artificial conditions the more internal validity but also less external validity the more we rig experiments models to avoid the confounding factors the less the conditions are reminiscent of the real target system the nodal issue is basically about how scientists using different isolation strategies in different nomological machines attempt to learn about causal relationships i doubt the generalizability of the randomized or not experiment strategy because the probability is high that causal mechanisms are different in different contexts and that lack of homogeneity stability invariance don t give us warranted export licenses to the real societies evidence based theories and policies are highly valued nowadays randomization is supposed to best control for bias from unknown confounders the received opinion including rubin and gelman is that evidence based on randomized experiments therefore is the best more and more economists have also lately come to advocate randomization as the principal method for ensuring being able to make valid causal inferences especially when it comes to questions of causality randomization is nowadays considered some kind of gold standard everything has to be evidence based and the evidence has to come from randomized experiments but just as econometrics randomization is basically a deductive method given the assumptions such as manipulability transitivity reichenbach probability principles separability additivity linearity etc etc these methods deliver deductive inferences the problem of course is that we will never completely know when the assumptions are right and although randomization may contribute to controlling for confounding it does not guarantee it since genuine ramdomness presupposes infinite experimentation and we know all real experimentation is finite and even if randomization may help to establish average causal effects it says nothing of individual effects unless homogeneity is added to the list of assumptions real target systems are seldom epistemically isomorphic to our axiomatic deductive models systems and even if they were we still have to argue for the external validity of the conclusions reached from within these epistemically convenient models systems causal evidence generated by randomization procedures may be valid in closed models but what we usually are interested in is causal evidence in the real target system we happen to live in many advocates of randomization want to have deductively automated answers to fundamental causal questions but to apply thin methods we have to have thick background knowledge of what s going on in the real world and not in ideally controlled experiments conclusions can only be as certain as their premises and that also goes for methods based on randomized experiments so yours truly agrees with gelman that all inference is about generalizing from sample to population but i don t think randomized experiments ideal or not take us very far on that road randomized experiments in social sciences are far from being the gold standard they so often are depicted as share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky agni parthene 24 feb 2021 at 15 39 posted in varia comments off on agni parthene share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky frank hahn on the value of equilibrium economics 22 feb 2021 at 10 16 posted in economics comments off on frank hahn on the value of equilibrium economics it cannot be denied that there is something scandalous in the spectacle of so many people refining the analyses of economic states which they give no reason to suppose will ever or have ever come about it probably is also dangerous equilibrium economics is easily convertible into an apologia for existing economic arrangements and it is frequently so converted frank hahn share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky keynes on the methodology of econometrics 21 feb 2021 at 20 39 posted in statistics econometrics comments off on keynes on the methodology of econometrics there is first of all the central question of methodology the logic of applying the method of multiple correlation to unanalysed economic material which we know to be non homogeneous through time if we are dealing with the action of numerically measurable independent forces adequately analysed so that we were dealing with independent atomic factors and between them completely comprehensive acting with fluctuating relative strength on material constant and homogeneous through time we might be able to use the method of multiple correlation with some confidence for disentangling the laws of their action in fact we know that every one of these conditions is far from being satisfied by the economic material under investigation letter from john maynard keynes to royall tyler 1938 share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky on the irrelevance of mainstream economics 20 feb 2021 at 12 06 posted in economics comments off on on the irrelevance of mainstream economics there is something about the way mainstream economists construct their models nowadays that obviously doesn t sit right one might have hoped that humbled by the manifest failure of its theoretical pretences during the latest economic financial crises the one sided almost religious insistence on axiomatic deductivist modelling as the only scientific activity worthy of pursuing in economics would give way to methodological pluralism based on ontological considerations rather than formalistic tractability but empirical evidence still only plays a minor role in mainstream economic theory where models largely function as a substitute for empirical evidence the dominant ideology in the economics academy i am maintaining is precisely the extraordinarily wide spread and long lasting belief that mathematical modelling is somehow neutral at the level of content or form but an essential method for science underpinning any proper or serious economics the scandal of modern economics is not that it gets so many things wrong but that it is so largely irrelevant however in being irrelevant the mainstream modelling orientation cannot but serve to deflect criticism from the nature of status quo at the level of the economy and thereby work to sustain it in truth few people take any mainstream analysis seriously except in economics faculties promotion exercises if macroeconomic models no matter of what ilk build on microfoundational assumptions of representative actors rational expectations market clearing and equilibrium and we know that real people and markets cannot be expected to obey these assumptions the warrants for supposing that conclusions or hypotheses of causally relevant mechanisms or regularities can be bridged are obviously non justifiable incompatibility between actual behaviour and the behaviour in macroeconomic models building on representative actors and rational expectations microfoundations is not a symptom of irrationality it rather shows the futility of trying to represent real world target systems with models flagrantly at odds with reality a gadget is just a gadget and no matter how many brilliantly silly mathematical models you come up with they do not help us working with the fundamental issues of modern economies the mainstream economics project is mostly because of its irrelevance seriously harmful to most people but also seriously harmless for those who benefit from the present status quo of our societies share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky ekonomi vetenskap eller gissningslek 19 feb 2021 at 11 15 posted in economics comments off on ekonomi vetenskap eller gissningslek är nationalekonomi vetenskapligt baserad kunskap kan man förutspå hur enskilda individer eller hela samhällen kommer att agera ekonomiskt till exempel om miljonbonusar gör toppchefer mer lojala mot de företag som anställt dom kan ekonomiska analytiker verkligen se in i framtiden och förutspå kommande kriser eller handlar ekonomernas prognoser mer om en kvalificerad gissningslek yours truly tore ellingsen och daniel waldenström ger sina svar i det här avsnittet av p1 s vetandets värld share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky economics where does it lead us 19 feb 2021 at 09 51 posted in economics 2 comments the issue of interpreting economic theory is in my opinion the most serious problem now facing economic theorists the feeling among many of us can be summarized as follows economic theory should deal with the real world it is not a branch of abstract mathematics even though it utilizes mathematical tools since it is about the real world people expect the theory to prove useful in achieving practical goals but economic theory has not delivered the goods predictions from economic theory are not nearly as accurate as those offered by the natural sciences and the link between economic theory and practical problems is tenuous at best economic theory lacks a consensus as to its purpose and interpretation again and again we find ourselves asking the question where does it lead ariel rubinstein share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky adorno on pop culture 19 feb 2021 at 09 39 posted in politics society 1 comment when adorno issued his own analyses of pop culture though he went off the beam he was too irritated by the new olympus of celebrities and even more by the enthusiasm they inspired in younger intellectuals to give a measured view in the wake of the work of art adorno published two essays on jazz and on the fetish character of music and the regression of listening that ignored the particulars of pop sounds and instead resorted to crude generalizations notoriously adorno compares jitterbugging to st vitus dance or the reflexes of mutilated animals he shows no sympathy for the african american experience which was finding a new platform through jazz and popular song the writing is polemical and not remotely dialectical alex ross the new yorker share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky next page recent posts arbetslöshetsiffran som styr den ekonomiska politiken 50 år efter studenten personal finding the late student stuff love s secret stein s paradox a lesson on precision and unbiasedness audioholic summer research ett välförtjänt bottenrekord arbetslösheten inte statsskulden är problemet how credible is the credibility revolution in econometrics randomness and representativeness are not the same lönebildning och arbetslöshet i sverige nancy cartwright s contributions to the philosophy of science what does randomisation 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