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roductive activities came with new economic power their assets became more difficult for the state to count and hence more difficult to tax because of this predation was no longer possible and the state had to negotiate with the new economic elites to extract revenue a sustainable bargain had to be reached because the state became more dependent on its citizens remaining loyal and with this citizens now had the leverage to be taken into account in the decision making process for the country 71 unreliable source 72 adam przeworski and fernando limongi argue that while economic development makes democracies less likely to turn authoritarian there is insufficient evidence to conclude that development causes democratization turning an authoritarian state into a democracy 73 economic development can boost public support for authoritarian regimes in the short to medium term 74 andrew j nathan argues that china is a problematic case for the thesis that economic development causes democratization 75 michael miller finds that development increases the likelihood of democratization in regimes that are fragile and unstable but makes this fragility less likely to begin with 76 there is research to suggest that greater urbanization through various pathways contributes to democratization 77 78 numerous scholars and political thinkers have linked a large middle class to the emergence and sustenance of democracy 65 79 whereas others have challenged this relationship 80 in non modernization 2022 daron acemoglu and james a robinson argue that modernization theory cannot account for various paths of political development because it posits a link between economics and politics that is not conditional on institutions and culture and that presumes a definite endpoint for example an end of history 81 a meta analysis by gerardo l munck of research on lipset s argument shows that a majority of studies do not support the thesis that higher levels of economic development leads to more democracy 82 a 2024 study linked industrialization to democratization arguing that large scale employment in manufacturing made mass mobilization easier to occur and harder to repress 83 capital mobility edit theories on causes to democratization such as economic development focuses on the aspect of gaining capital capital mobility focuses on the movement of money across borders of countries different financial instruments and the corresponding restrictions in the past there have been multiple theories as to what the relationship is between capital mobility and democratization 84 the doomsway view is that capital mobility is an inherent threat to underdeveloped democracies by the worsening of economic inequalities favoring the interests of powerful elites and external actors over the rest of society this might lead to depending on money from outside therefore affecting the economic situation in other countries sylvia maxfield argues that a bigger demand for transparency in both the private and public sectors by some investors can contribute to a strengthening of democratic institutions and can encourage democratic consolidation 85 a 2016 study found that preferential trade agreements can increase democratization of a country especially trading with other democracies 86 a 2020 study found increased trade between democracies reduces democratic backsliding while trade between democracies and autocracies reduces democratization of the autocracies 87 trade and capital mobility often involve international organizations such as the international monetary fund imf world bank and world trade organization wto which can condition financial assistance or trade agreements on democratic reforms 88 classes cleavages and alliances edit theorists such as barrington moore jr argued that the roots of democratization could be found in the relationship between lords and peasants in agrarian societies sociologist barrington moore jr in his influential social origins of dictatorship and democracy 1966 argues that the distribution of power among classes the peasantry the bourgeoisie and the landed aristocracy and the nature of alliances between classes determined whether democratic authoritarian or communist revolutions occurred 89 moore also argued there were at least three routes to the modern world the liberal democratic the fascist and the communist each deriving from the timing of industrialization and the social structure at the time of transition thus moore challenged modernization theory by stressing that there was not one path to the modern world and that economic development did not always bring about democracy 90 many authors have questioned parts of moore s arguments dietrich rueschemeyer evelyne stephens and john d stephens in capitalist development and democracy 1992 raise questions about moore s analysis of the role of the bourgeoisie in democratization 91 eva bellin argues that under certain circumstances the bourgeoisie and labor are more likely to favor democratization but less so under other circumstances 92 samuel valenzuela argues that counter to moore s view the landed elite supported democratization in chile 93 a comprehensive assessment conducted by james mahoney concludes that moore s specific hypotheses about democracy and authoritarianism receive only limited and highly conditional support 94 a 2020 study linked democratization to the mechanization of agriculture as landed elites became less reliant on the repression of agricultural workers they became less hostile to democracy 95 according to political scientist david stasavage representative government is more likely to occur when a society is divided across multiple political cleavages 96 a 2021 study found that constitutions that emerge through pluralism reflecting distinct segments of society are more likely to induce liberal democracy at least in the short term 97 political economic factors edit rulers need for taxation edit robert bates and donald lien as well as david stasavage have argued that rulers need for taxes gave asset owning elites the bargaining power to demand a say on public policy thus giving rise to democratic institutions 98 99 100 montesquieu argued that the mobility of commerce meant that rulers had to bargain with merchants in order to tax them otherwise they would leave the country or hide their commercial activities 101 98 stasavage argues that the small size and backwardness of european states as well as the weakness of european rulers after the fall of the roman empire meant that european rulers had to obtain consent from their population to govern effectively 100 99 according to clark golder and golder an application of albert o hirschman s exit voice and loyalty model is that if individuals have plausible exit options then a government may be more likely to democratize james c scott argues that governments may find it difficult to claim a sovereignty over a population when that population is in motion 102 scott additionally asserts that exit may not solely include physical exit from the territory of a coercive state but can include a number of adaptive responses to coercion that make it more difficult for states to claim sovereignty over a population these responses can include planting crops that are more difficult for states to count or tending livestock that are more mobile in fact the entire political arrangement of a state is a result of individuals adapting to the environment and making a choice as to whether or not to stay in a territory 102 if people are free to move then the exit voice and loyalty model predicts that a state will have to be of that population representative and appease the populace in order to prevent them from leaving 103 if individuals have plausible exit options then they are better able to constrain a government s arbitrary behaviour through threat of exit 103 inequality and democracy edit daron acemoglu and james a robinson argued that the relationship between social equality and democratic transition is complicated people have less incentive to revolt in an egalitarian society for example singapore so the likelihood of democratization is lower in a highly unequal society for example south africa under apartheid the redistribution of wealth and power in a democracy would be so harmful to elites that these would do everything to prevent democratization democratization is more likely to emerge somewhere in the middle in the countries whose elites offer concessions because 1 they consider the threat of a revolution credible and 2 the cost of the concessions is not too high 104 this expectation is in line with the empirical research showing that democracy is more stable in egalitarian societies 66 other approaches to the relationship between inequality and democracy have been presented by carles boix stephan haggard robert kaufman ben ansell and david samuels 105 106 in their 2019 book the narrow corridor and a 2022 study in the american political science review acemoglu and robinson argue that the nature of the relationship between elites and society determine whether stable democracy emerges when elites are overly dominant despotic states emerge when society is overly dominant weak states emerge when elites and society are evenly balance inclusive states emerge 107 108 natural resources edit the abundance of oil is sometimes seen as a curse research shows that oil wealth lowers levels of democracy and strengthens autocratic rule 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 according to michael ross petroleum is the sole resource that has been consistently correlated with less democracy and worse institutions and is the key variable in the vast majority of the studies identifying some type of resource curse effect 119 a 2014 meta analysis confirms the negative impact of oil wealth on democratization 120 thad dunning proposes a plausible explanation for ecuador s return to democracy that contradicts the conventional wisdom that natural resource rents encourage authoritarian governments dunning proposes that there are situations where natural resource rents such as those acquired through oil reduce the risk of distributive or social policies to the elite because the state has other sources of revenue to finance this kind of policies that is not the elite wealth or income 121 and in countries plagued with high inequality which was the case of ecuador in the 1970s the result would be a higher likelihood of democratization 122 in 1972 the military coup had overthrown the government in large part because of the fears of elites that redistribution would take place 123 that same year oil became an increasing financial source for the country 123 although the rents were used to finance the military the eventual second oil boom of 1979 ran parallel to the country s re democratization 123 ecuador s re democratization can then be attributed as argued by dunning to the large increase of oil rents which enabled not only a surge in public spending but placated the fears of redistribution that had grappled the elite circles 123 the exploitation of ecuador s resource rent enabled the government to implement price and wage policies that benefited citizens at no cost to the elite and allowed for a smooth transition and growth of democratic institutions 123 the thesis that oil and other natural resources have a negative impact on democracy has been challenged by historian stephen haber and political scientist victor menaldo in a widely cited article in the american political science review 2011 haber and menaldo argue that natural resource reliance is not an exogenous variable and find that when tests of the relationship between natural resources and democracy take this point into account increases in resource reliance are not associated with authoritarianism 124 cultural factors edit values and religion edit it is claimed by some that certain cultures are simply more conducive to democratic values than others this view is likely to be ethnocentric typically it is western culture which is cited as best suited to democracy with other cultures portrayed as containing values which make democracy difficult or undesirable this argument is sometimes used by undemocratic regimes to justify their failure to implement democratic reforms today however there are many non western democracies examples include india japan indonesia namibia botswana taiwan and south korea research finds that western educated leaders significantly and substantively improve a country s democratization prospects 125 huntington presented an influential but also controversial arguments about confucianism and islam huntington held that in practice confucian or confucian influenced societies have been inhospitable to democracy 126 he also held that islamic doctrine contains elements that may be both congenial and uncongenial to democracy but generally thought that islam was an obstacle to democratization 127 in contrast alfred stepan was more optimistic about the compatibility of different religions and democracy 128 the compatibility of islam and democracy continues to be a focus of discussion the image depicts a mosque in medina saudi arabia steven fish and robert barro have linked islam to undemocratic outcomes 129 130 however michael ross argues that the lack of democracies in some parts of the muslim world has more to do with the adverse effects of the resource curse than islam 131 lisa blaydes and eric chaney have linked the democratic divergence between the west and the middle east to the reliance on mamluks slave soldiers by muslim rulers whereas european rulers had to rely on local elites for military forces thus giving those elites bargaining power to push for representative government 132 robert dahl argued in on democracy that countries with a democratic political culture were more prone for democratization and democratic survival 65 he also argued that cultural homogeneity and smallness contribute to democratic survival 65 133 other scholars have however challenged the notion that small states and homogeneity strengthen democracy 134 a 2012 study found that areas in africa with protestant missionaries were more likely to become stable democracies 135 a 2020 study failed to replicate those findings 136 sirianne dahlum and carl henrik knutsen offer a test of the ronald inglehart and christian welzel revised version of modernization theory which focuses on cultural traits triggered by economic development that are presumed to be conducive to democratization 137 they find no empirical support for the inglehart and welzel thesis and conclude that self expression values do not enhance democracy levels or democratization chances and neither do they stabilize existing democracies 138 education edit it has long been theorized that education promotes stable and democratic societies 139 research shows that education leads to greater political tolerance increases the likelihood of political participation and...
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