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uration of military capabilities interests at stake and political constraints faced by a defending state in a given situation of attempted deterrence the argument of that school of thought is that potential attacking states are not likely to draw strong inferences about a defending states resolve from prior conflicts because potential attacking states do not believe that a defending state s past behaviour is a reliable predictor of future behavior the third approach is a middle ground between the first two approaches and argues that potential attacking states are likely to draw reputational inferences about resolve from the past behaviour of defending states only under certain conditions the insight is the expectation that decisionmakers use only certain types of information when drawing inferences about reputations and an attacking state updates and revises its beliefs when a defending state s unanticipated behavior cannot be explained by case specific variables an example shows that the problem extends to the perception of the third parties as well as main adversaries and underlies the way in which attempts at deterrence can fail and even backfire if the assumptions about the others perceptions are incorrect 40 interests at stake edit source although costly signaling and bargaining power are more well established arguments in rational deterrence theory the interests of defending states are not as well known attacking states may look beyond the short term bargaining tactics of a defending state and seek to determine what interests are at stake for the defending state that would justify the risks of a military conflict the argument is that defending states that have greater interests at stake in a dispute are more resolved to use force and more willing to endure military losses to secure those interests even less well established arguments are the specific interests that are more salient to state leaders such as military interests and economic interests furthermore huth 31 argues that both supporters and critics of rational deterrence theory agree that an unfavorable assessment of the domestic and international status quo by state leaders can undermine or severely test the success of deterrence in a rational choice approach if the expected utility of not using force is reduced by a declining status quo position deterrence failure is more likely since the alternative option of using force becomes relatively more attractive tripwires edit source tripwires entail that small forces are deployed abroad with the assumption that an attack on them will trigger a greater deployment of forces 41 dan reiter and paul poast have argued that tripwires do not deter aggression 41 42 dan altman has argued that tripwires do work to deter aggression citing the western deployment of forces to berlin in 1948 1949 to deter soviet aggression as a successful example 43 a 2022 study by brian blankenship and erik lin greenberg found that high resolve low capability signals such as tripwires were not viewed as more reassuring to allies than low resolve high capability alternatives such as forces stationed offshore their study cast doubt on the reassuring value of tripwires 44 nuclear deterrence theory edit source main articles nuclear strategy massive retaliation mutual assured destruction and flexible response nuclear weapons background nuclear explosion history warfare design testing delivery yield effects humanitarian workers ethics arsenals target selection arms race blackmail deterrence espionage no first use proliferation disarmament sharing strategy terrorism umbrella opposition winter pax atomica nuclear triad nuclear armed states npt recognized united states russia united kingdom france china others india israel undeclared pakistan north korea former south africa belarus kazakhstan ukraine v t e in 1966 schelling 38 is prescriptive in outlining the impact of the development of nuclear weapons in the analysis of military power and deterrence in his analysis before the widespread use of assured second strike capability or immediate reprisal in the form of ssbn submarines schelling argues that nuclear weapons give nations the potential to destroy their enemies but also the rest of humanity without drawing immediate reprisal because of the lack of a conceivable defense system and the speed with which nuclear weapons can be deployed a nation s credible threat of such severe damage empowers their deterrence policies and fuels political coercion and military deadlock which can produce proxy warfare according to kenneth waltz there are three requirements for successful nuclear deterrence 45 part of a state s nuclear arsenal must appear to be able to survive an attack by the adversary and be used for a retaliatory second strike the state must not respond to false alarms of a strike by the adversary the state must maintain command and control the stability instability paradox is a key concept in rational deterrence theory it states that when two countries each have nuclear weapons the probability of a direct war between them greatly decreases but the probability of minor or indirect conflicts between them increases 46 47 48 this occurs because rational actors want to avoid nuclear wars and thus they neither start major conflicts nor allow minor conflicts to escalate into major conflicts thus making it safe to engage in minor conflicts for instance during the cold war the united states and the soviet union never engaged each other in warfare but fought proxy wars in korea vietnam angola the middle east nicaragua and afghanistan and spent substantial amounts of money and manpower on gaining relative influence over the third world 49 bernard brodie wrote in 1959 that a credible nuclear deterrent must be always ready 50 a an extended nuclear deterrence guarantee is also called a nuclear umbrella 51 scholars have debated whether having a superior nuclear arsenal provides a deterrent against other nuclear armed states with smaller arsenals matthew kroenig has argued that states with nuclear superiority are more likely to win nuclear crises 52 53 whereas todd sechser matthew fuhrmann and david c logan have challenged this assertion 54 55 56 a 2023 study found that a state with nuclear weapons is less likely to be targeted by non nuclear states but that a state with nuclear weapons is not less likely to target other nuclear states in low level conflict 57 a 2022 study by kyungwon suh suggests that nuclear superiority may not reduce the likelihood that nuclear opponents will initiate nuclear crises 58 proponents of nuclear deterrence theory argue that newly nuclear armed states may pose a short or medium term risk but that nuclear learning occurs over time as states learn to live with new nuclear armed states 59 60 mark s bell and nicholas l miller have however argued that there is a weak theoretical and empirical basis for notions of nuclear learning 61 stages of us policy of deterrence edit source this section needs more citations please help improve this section by adding citations to reliable sources unsourced material may be challenged and removed may 2026 learn how and when to remove this message the us policy of deterrence during the cold war underwent significant variations containment edit source the early stages of the cold war were generally characterized by the containment of communism an aggressive stance on behalf of the us especially on developing nations under its sphere of influence the period was characterized by numerous proxy wars throughout most of the globe particularly africa asia central america and south america one notable conflict was the korean war george f kennan who is taken to be the founder of this policy in his long telegram asserted that he never advocated military intervention merely economic support and that his ideas were misinterpreted as espoused by the general public détente edit source with the us drawdown from vietnam the normalization of us relations with china and the sino soviet split the policy of containment was abandoned and a new policy of détente was established with peaceful co existence sought between the united states and the soviet union although all of those factors contributed to this shift the most important factor was probably the rough parity achieved in stockpiling nuclear weapons with the clear capability of mutual assured destruction mad therefore the period of détente was characterized by a general reduction in the tension between the soviet union and the united states and a thawing of the cold war which lasted from the late 1960s until the start of the 1980s the doctrine of mutual nuclear deterrence then characterized relations between the united states and the soviet union and relations with russia until the onset of the new cold war in the early 2010s since then relations have been less clear reagan era edit source a third shift occurred with us president ronald reagan s arms build up during the 1980s reagan attempted to justify the policy by concerns of growing soviet influence in latin america and the post 1979 revolutionary government of iran similar to the old policy of containment the us funded several proxy wars including support for saddam hussein of iraq during the iran iraq war 62 support for the mujahideen in afghanistan who were fighting for independence from the soviet union and several anticommunist movements in latin america such as the overthrow of the sandinista government in nicaragua the funding of the contras in nicaragua led to the iran contra affair while overt support led to a ruling from the international court of justice against the united states in nicaragua v united states the final expression of the full impact of deterrence during the cold war can be seen in the agreement between reagan and mikhail gorbachev in 1985 they agreed that a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought recognizing that any conflict between the ussr and the u s could have catastrophic consequences they emphasized the importance of preventing any war between them whether nuclear or conventional they will not seek to achieve military superiority while the army was dealing with the breakup of the soviet union and the spread of nuclear technology to other nations beyond the united states and russia the concept of deterrence took on a broader multinational dimension the us policy on deterrence after the cold war was outlined in 1995 in the document called essentials of post cold war deterrence 63 it explains that while relations with russia continue to follow the traditional characteristics of mad but the us policy of deterrence towards nations with minor nuclear capabilities should ensure by threats of immense retaliation or even pre emptive action not to threaten the united states its interests or allies the document explains that such threats must also be used to ensure that nations without nuclear technology refrain from developing nuclear weapons and that a universal ban precludes any nation from maintaining chemical or biological weapons the current tensions with iran and north korea over their nuclear programs are caused partly by the continuation of the policy of deterrence post cold war period edit source main article nuclear risk during the russian invasion of ukraine by the beginning of the 2022 russian invasion of ukraine many western hawks expressed the view that deterrence worked in that war but only in one way in favor of russia former us security advisor john bolton said deterrence is working in the ukraine crisis just not for the right side the united states and its allies failed to deter russia from invading the purpose of deterrence strategy is to prevent the conflict entirely and there washington failed badly on the other hand russian deterrence is enjoying spectacular success russia has convinced the west that even a whisper of nato military action in ukraine would bring disastrous consequences putin threatens blusters uses the word nuclear and the west wilts 64 when elon musk prevented ukraine from carrying drone attacks on the russian black sea fleet by denying to enable needed starlink communications in crimea 65 anne applebaum argued musk had been deterred by russia after the country s ambassador warned him an attack on crimea would be met with a nuclear response 66 later ukrainian attacks on the same fleet using a different communications system also caused deterrence this time to the russian navy 66 timo s koster who served at nato as director of defence policy capabilities similarly argued a massacre is taking place in europe and the strongest military alliance in the world is staying out of it we are deterred and russia is not 67 philip breedlove a retired four star u s air force general and a former saceur said that western fears about nuclear weapons and world war iii have left it fully deterred and putin completely undeterred the west have ceded the initiative to the enemy 68 no attempt was made by nato to deter moscow with the threat of military force wondered another expert to the contrary it was russia s deterrence that proved to be successful 69 cyber deterrence edit source main articles cyberwarfare and cyberweapon since the early 2000s there has been an increased focus on cyber deterrence cyber deterrence has two meanings 70 the use of cyber actions to deter other states the deterrence of an adversary s cyber operations scholars have debated how cyber capabilities alter traditional understandings of deterrence given that it may be harder to attribute responsibility for cyber attacks the barriers to entry may be lower the risks and costs may be lower for actors who conduct cyber attacks it may be harder to signal and interpret intentions the advantage of offense over defense and weak actors and non state actors can develop considerable cyber capabilities 70 71 72 73 scholars have also debated the feasibility of launching highly damaging cyber attacks and engaging in destructive cyber warfare with most scholars expressing skepticism that cyber capabilities have enhanced the ability of states to launch highly destructive attacks 74 75 76 the most prominent cyber attack to date is the stuxnet attack on iran s nuclear program 74 75 by 2019 the only publicly acknowledged case of a cyber attack causing a power outage was the 2015 ukraine power grid hack 77 there are various ways to engage in cyber deterrence 70 71 72 denial preventing adversaries from achieving military objectives by defending against them 73 punishment the imposition of costs on the adversary norms the establishment and maintenance of norms that establish appropriate standards of behavior 78 79 escalation raising the probability that costs will be imposed on the adversary 80 entanglement and interdependence interdependence between actors can have a deterrent effect 71 76 there is a risk of unintended escalation in cyberspace due to difficulties in discerning the intent of attacker...
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