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te health insurance market directly related to its dominance in the political arena is perhaps another negative effect of what i have called the curse of gm the hangover of state economy that heavily reliant on a single industry car making and that industry s too cozy past relations with its unions posted in uncategorized 13 comments government employee furloughs are obnoxious february 13 2010 by jmchugh4u government employee furloughs are obnoxious but not because these individuals get a day off and don t get paid for not working they re obnoxious because they demonstrate the stranglehold that unions have on the state and local governments because the state has allowed its own workers to engage in collective bargaining and mandated it for local governments this and other rigged rules result in so much inflexibility that governments are unable to adjust compensation to reflect fiscal reality the one thing they can do and even on this the state thinks it must run to the union bosses for permission is furloughs here s a better idea change the law and tell government employees who are already covered by civil service tenure protections this sorry we re not gonna bargain with you here s the salary we ll pay here s the bennies take it or leave it if you don t want it there are plenty behind you who will a lot of states do just that the states that don t are the ones that are imploding fiscally economically demographically posted in uncategorized 2 comments is this another bubble economy november 22 2009 by jmchugh4u i just quantified my 401k stock portfolio for the first time since the spring of 2007 my rule open statements when markets rising and toss them when falling bottom line damage done but not tragedy the question is this april 1930 or july 1932 after falling around a third in the 1929 crash stocks recovered almost half the loss over the next six months then they fell again hitting values in july 1933 barely 10 percent the 1929 high why shouldn t now be more like april 1930 look at the landscape looting power mad politicians are in control and are strangling the economy s animal spirits which suggests deflation the value of our currency is being wrecked which suggests inflation judy shelton below says we already have the latter with the funny money going into stocks bonds gold even real estate none of those should be rising given unemployment low capacity utilization savaged balance sheets and more it looks to me like big wheeler dealers are borrowing nearly free money and putting it into stocks and other financials the carry trade are there big earnings ahead for the companies they re buying notwithstanding the policy poison the pols are mainstreaming into the economy s lifeblood i don t see it instead this looks like a trap when rates start to climb the smart boys will exit and the market will crash unlike 1987 when the market popped right back today there s no virtuous policy mix and no big productivity gains percolating so what pops the bubble all the funny money creation tastes great and seems less filling at the moment and i do believe in tinkerbelle i do believe in tinkerbelle not see douglas holtz eakin below current asset allocation choices and the downside of each gold already has been a big run up despite deflationary real economy real estate it s steady to rising with exceptions despite deflationary real economy bonds they re strong rates low despite unprecedented government debt and funny money creation stocks we ve had a big run up from the low despite public policy poison and dubious future earnings prospects cash in dollars it s being eroded by dollar decline jeez what s left swiss francs the swiss have gone wobbly on some things too but still maybe a few eggs in energy stocks the havoc the pols are wreaking there may enrich select real energy providers who can still function oil services perhaps from the fed s woody allen policy efforts to stoke a recovery may be creating new asset bubbles in equities and elsewhere by judy shelton wsj 11 11 09 in the woody allen film annie hall the main character tries to explain irrational relationships by recounting an old joke this guy goes to a psychiatrist and says my brother s crazy he thinks he s a chicken the doctor says well why don t you turn him in and the guy says i would but i need the eggs it takes similar reasoning to reconcile the elation felt across america every time the stock market rises partially replenishing personal investment portfolios and 401 k retirement plans with the uneasy feeling that we are being set up for yet another big financial disappointment we dare to hope that the economy is growing solidly once more that the federal reserve has superior knowledge about providing liquidity and that the u s treasury knows what it s doing by guaranteeing money market fund assets but what if the fed s efforts to stoke a recovery are merely creating asset bubbles in equities and elsewhere what if government guarantees explicit and implicit are encouraging high risk investment behavior rather than restoring conditions for normal market returns what if excess dollars produced here are being channeled by speculators into foreign stock and bond markets as part of a currency play but wait a minute if unemployment is high doesn t that indicate a surplus of labor relative to the demand for labor wouldn t that cause the price of labor to come down if you throw in the fact that industrial capacity utilization at 70 is lower now than during any prior recession since the fed began tracking it in 1967 and that the housing vacancy rate is nearly 11 you begin to wonder why the price level should nevertheless continue to rise even by a little bit every month but the fed seems to think that prices should only go in one direction up no matter the circumstances it s this bias toward inflation that is revealed by the fomc s reference to stable inflation expectations which is less a paean to price stability than an inadvertent oxymoron the fed s asymmetrical thinking extends as well to its treatment of financial assets such as equity and debt instruments en route to a bubble as prices surge and markets soar the fed is reluctant to raise interest rates lest it be accused of hindering growth but when the bubble bursts and asset prices begin to tumble the fed quickly steps in with dramatic interest rate reductions to restore investor confidence in hopes of avoiding a meltdown the answer would seem to lie in whether the fed s money machine is fueling an illusory recovery that is only manifested in financial markets as opposed to the general economy sure we could be facing the latest fed induced bubble but so what we need the eggs from the coming deficit disaster by douglas holtz eakin wsj 11 20 09 at what point some financial analysts ask do rating agencies downgrade the united states when do lenders price additional risk to federal borrowing leading to a damaging spike in interest rates how quickly will international investors flee the dollar for a new reserve currency and how will the resulting higher interest rates diminished dollar higher inflation and economic distress manifest itself given the president s recent reception in china friendly but fruitless these answers may come sooner than any of us would like ben stein 1 20 2009 we have been fooled so much in the past 15 months about what real earnings are what real book value is that we cannot trust the data given to us yes by current price earnings measures stocks look fairly reasonable but we don t really know what true earnings are that is the vicious truth so if we are in the quicksand of not being able to rely on the data our companies give out then anything can happen yes we may be at a bottom or near it or we may not be anywhere near a bottom ben stein 1 6 2009 still i have learned a bit of a lesson i was wrong to have as little as i did in cash and treasuries i was wrong to be as sanguine as i was about my stocks and real estate in terms of their volatility it was in fact possible for almost everything to collapse at once and it did the market trades to cause maximum pain is a fine adage for investors then now and in the future toward the end of his life ben graham warren buffett s brilliant teacher on value investing told his friends that he had decided the stock market was simply too dangerous for him he would keep all of his money in treasuries he was much smarter than i am i am still foolish enough to think i should have a good chunk in stocks especially at the current marked down prices mr graham by the way died in the mid 1970s a terrible time to own either bonds or stocks but although i will keep money in stocks i will keep more than i did in insured cash and treasuries i will follow the advice of author and speaker raymond j lucia to keep many years worth of spending needs in cash or near cash i will in a word hedge myself more in us government bonds and cash than i previously did i shake when i think of this because i feel sure inflation will eventually come back in a big way but i am hedged on that i hope by my real estate which i did not cannot sell posted in uncategorized leave a comment why detroit has nothing to lose from bankruptcy september 10 2009 by jmchugh4u a person named lynndee kemmet opined in the detroit news that detroit should avoid bankruptcy because when municipalities receive bankruptcy protection or go into receivership unionized employees are not the only ones who stand to lose a city in bankruptcy becomes a far less attractive place to live and work residents with the resources to move elsewhere often do leaving behind those least able to pay the taxes needed to get the city out of its mess bankrupt cities have taken decades to recover a bankrupt city is not only less attractive to residents and good employees but it s also far less attractive to businesses that might help spur future economic growth and then there are future investors a bankrupt city is unlikely to find buyers for future bonds for roads sewer and water projects city buildings and parks hey babe relax those trains all left the michigan central station many moons ago posted in uncategorized leave a comment shikha dalmia on detroit s flashy projects september 9 2009 by jmchugh4u she won t be fooled again in her latest column for forbes reason foundation senior analyst shikha dalmia includes a poignant touching rendition of her immigrant s eye perceptions when she first arrived in detroit 21 years ago not long departed from her native new delhi what was surprising was that there was no sign that the looters of detroit s abandoned homes were doing anything constructive with their ill gotten gains in india the entire project of life can be conducted out of ramshackle structures erected on dirty sidewalks from scraps of discarded tarp pilfered corrugated metal bamboo poles and a few logs for fuel scavenged daily from trash heaps in these filthy exposed dwellings families are raised goods produced and sold tandoori roti dal sabzi services provided ironing shoe repair and even animals given shelter they are not ennobling or uplifting but they are testimony to the powerful human need to survive and flourish even in the direst circumstances it didn t seem plausible that this basic urge had somehow ceased to exist in detroit hence when mayor dennis archer started talking in the mid 90s about reviving the city by erecting new stadiums and casinos his message resonated with detroiters including me dalmia goes on the recap how these flashy projects from archer and his successor failed to revive the city and to express amazement at the latest credulous hype this time fueled by misplaced faith that a handful of artsy craftsy bohemian types buying some cheap houses will act as first stage gentrifiers paving the way for the return of doctors and lawyers and other bourgeois professionals this notwithstanding out of control crime a completely dysfunctional city government and a fiscal black hole that threatens to further diminish an already meager and alienated remainder of a city that once claimed 2 million thriving souls the mackinac center s michael lafaive has documented in more detail the rise and fall of some of those flashy projects dalmia refers to tags detroit economic development posted in uncategorized 3 comments is boone pickens history s boldest rent seeker august 23 2009 by jmchugh4u probably not there have been some real doozies over the centuries but he certainly is one of the boldest in the current era last year he made news with a cockamamie scheme to use government subsidies to build a zillion windmills out in the prairies with the absurdly expensive power backed up by wait for it generators fueled by the natural gas in which he has substantial investments this week he s proposing a slightly less byzantine but equally goofy scheme in the wall street journal adopting a cash for clunkers program in the utility sector can save money and reduce emissions right away by retiring the oldest least efficient and most polluting power plants in exchange for modern gas powered plants yep gas power plants powered by the fuel in which wait for it he himself has substantial investments you almost have to admire such gall almost posted in uncategorized leave a comment collectivists accuse opponents of what they themselves perpetrate august 10 2009 by jmchugh4u back during the cold war i was often struck by how many times the evil empire would accuse the u s and the west of doing things that were in fact sop for the communists themselves such as rigging elections quashing dissent manipulating statistics etc actually these things are characteristic of government itself but in the open societies of the west attempts to perptetrate them rarely escape public exposure and retribution while in police states they are business as usual so now we have the spectacle of the president democrats the left and their tools in the mainstream media accusing the right of whomping up bought and paid for opposition to a government run health care system here s hack columnist bill press reason hit run s characterization on the current opposition to obamacare taking a page right out of a nazi playbook organizers bus in professional protestors and arm them with instructions on how to take over meetings shut down discussion shout over any pro health care reform speakers and then post video of the resulting chaos on youtube it s mob rule pure and simple taking a page right out of a nazi playbook organizers bus in professional protestors and arm them with instructions on how to take over meetings shut down discussion shout over any pro health care reform speakers and then post video of the resulting chaos on youtube it s mob rule pure and simple gosh all that sounds so much like every right of center speaker on a college campus in the past 25 years getting shouted down for daring to voice dissent on minority preferences global warming socialism ...
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