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h yes no decisions on strategic things there are a few in the lifetime of a company most decisions are irrelevant to the success and they even out make a lot of decisions that make a small relative change and you will likely be where you started again law of large numbers but there are a few that can make or break a company given how many companies go bust clearly there are many many ceos making the wrong make or break decisions so just because you hired a ceo and he made a decision to focus on a certain product and drop everything else and you made it big does it mean your ceo was a genius flipping a coin then gives you 50 chance of success too same with stock traders look and you will find traders whose last 10 bets were huge successes does it mean that they are geniuses or does it simply there are lots of stock traders that make fairly random decisions and some of them thus must be successful if there are enough of them there will be some whose last 10 bets were good if it was 10 yes no decisions then you just need 1024 idiots for one of them to get all of them right they don t have to know anything let s take a different example suppose you find someone that out of a pool of 100 stocks has for the last 3 years picked the most successful one each year this person can be a total and complete idiot as long as there were a million people making those choices the chance of that person picking the right stock this year is most likely 1 in 100 don t believe people trying to sell you their surefire way to predict the stockmarket even if they are not lying about their past success ok more serious example of law of large numbers suppose your country does a military operation that has 99 chance of success and 1 chance of doom to your country suppose your country keeps doing this each time it seems it is completely safe yet eventually your country will lose you start enough wars even with overwhelming odds your luck will run out statistically that s a sure thing if you want your country to be around in 100 years do not do things that have even an ever so tiny chance of backfiring and dooming that country to failure you can probably guess which rather longish list of countries that i am thinking of which with good odds won t be here in 100 200 or 500 years let s end on a positive note with essentially 100 probability humankind will eventually destroy itself with nuclear or other similarly destructive weapons there seem to be conflicts arising every few decades that have a chance of deteriorating into nuclear war small chance but positive since that seems likely to me to repeat itself over and over eventually one of those nuclear wars will start it can t quite be 100 since there is a chance that we will all die in some apocalyptic natural disaster possibly of our own making rather than nuclear war since there is also a small chance that everybody on earth gets a heart attack at the same exact time even if we make sure we don t do anything else dangerous such as nuclear weapons civilization will end one day with a massive concurrent heart attack leave a comment august 9 2014 numbers again filed under politics jiri lebl 4 43 pm i like to get fake enraged when people get caught up in very silly misunderstanding of numbers and often this misunderstanding is used by politicians extremists and others to manipulate those people the most recent and prominent example is the israel gaza conflict the story is that hamas rockets are endangering israeli lives ok yes they do but you have to always look at the scale since 2001 so in the last 13 years there have been 40 deaths in israel from gaza cross border rocket and mortar fire 1 13 of those are soldiers and one could make the case that those were military targets but let s ignore that and count 40 of those fatalities 23 happened during one of the operations designed to remove the rocket threat one could argue though i won t there won t be a need that without those operations only 17 israelis would have died ok so 40 people in 13 years that s approximately 3 deaths per year when i recently read an article about toxicity of mushrooms 2 the person being interviewed the toxicologists made an argument that mushroom picking in czech is not dangerous only 2 3 deaths per year and vast majority of czechs will go mushroom picking every year even we do when we re over there it s a czech thing clearly it is not enough to worry the toxicologists and czech is about the same size as israel in terms of population when my granddad a nuclear physicist with his team computed the number of new cancers due to chernobyl in czech after the disaster they predicted 200 a year trouble was they couldn t verify it because 200 a year gets hidden in the noise in a country of 10 million if we take 80 year lifespan 125000 people will die every year of various causes a large proportion of them to cancer many of them preventable cancer that the state does not try to prevent since it would mean unpopular policies so 3 deaths a year is completely lost in the noise so if israel would spend the money it spends on fighting hamas even if we buy into the propaganda that this will defeat hamas if it would spend the money on an anti smoking campaign it would likely save far more israeli lives every year another statistic to look at is car accidents in israel approximately 263 people died on the road in one year so your chances of dying in a car accident are almost 100 times larger in fact death by lighting in the us average at 51 per year 4 rescaling to israel i could not find israel numbers you get about 1 4 a year that s only slightly less than what hamas kills in a year in fact it s about how many civilians they kill so your chances as an israeli civilian of being killed by a rocket or mortar are about the same as being killed by lightning not being struck by lightning by the way because only 1 in 5 approximately of those struck die so your chances of being struck by lightning are bigger let s say approx 6 7 people in israel will get struck by lightning every year an argument could be made that most israelis killed were in sderot i count 8 so your chances of being killed there are bigger and correspondingly your chances of being killed by a hamas rocket based on current data if you are in say tel aviv are zero anyway 8 in 13 years is about 0 6 a year in sderot rescaling based on population the car deaths to estimate the number of deaths per year in sderot we get approximately 0 8 deaths per year in sderot so your chances of dying in a car crash are higher even if you live in sderot your chances of dying from cancer are much much higher the politicians supporting israel s actions often don t worry about logical contradictions stemming from the above facts when bloomberg visited israel he lambasted the fact that some airlines stopped flying to tel aviv on rocket fears he said that he never felt safer there well if he never felt safer why is gaza being bombed none of this in any way is an apology for hamas hamas is a terrorist organization that aims to kill civilians but hamas is almost comically incompetent at doing so if it weren t a sad thing we ought to laugh at hamas anyway clearly an incompetent murderer is till a murderer if he manages to kill even one person the question is what lengths should you go to to apprehend him now the costs gaza has 1 8 million people one should expect about 20 30 thousand natural deaths per year this year israel kills 2000 gazans so very approximately about 1 in 10 to 1 in 15 gazans that dies this year will die at israel s hands now think what that does to the ability of hamas or even far more radical groups to recruit my grandmother grew up in the post wwii years so she has not lived through wwii as an adult yet she harbored deep hatred of all germans this was common in europe people used to hate each other and then every once in a while they would attempt to kill each other if you are on the receiving side of the killing and only your relatives get killed you are very likely to have this deep hatred that could very well be used by extremists think back to the balkans and especially bosnia it takes generations to get rid of it i don t resent the poles or the ukrainians even though i had galitian jewish ancestors that probably had no love for either but 70 years ago these three groups managed to literally destroy the whole region by killing each other well the germans and russians helped greatly in the endeavor there is probably very few people in the region whose family actually comes from there the point is that the cost of the operation besides the moral outrage of killing thousands of people is pushing back the date that israel can live in peace with its neighbors another cost to israel is the rise of anti semitism just like violent actions by muslim extremists created a wave of anti muslim sentiment in the west violent acts by israel will only strenghten anti semitic forces you are giving them perfect recruiting stories if they had any doubts they don t have them now maybe as a positive aspect it will justify israeli contention that hatred of israel is based on anti semitism since by creating anti semitic sentiment yes more of it will be the fact that the deputy speaker of parliament in israel calls for conquest of gaza are forcefully removing the gazans into tent camps and them out of israel 5 does not help maybe he should have called it final solution to the problem surely there would be no problem with that phrase another thing about numbers is that israel depends on america giving it cover and weapons israel does not realize that american opinion is shifting in part due to its own actions in part since these things always shift in time see 6 basically once the young of today will be the older folks of tomorrow israel won t be seen the way it is now it might be that us will also shift towards some other group as being important in american politics given the growth in the latino population it should be clear that israel will at some point stop being the priority for many politicians given that we will also approach the world oil peak and that us oil will once again start running out once we ve fracked out what we could frack out oil will become again more important and israel does not have oil israel is religiously important but recall that americans are mostly protestant christians not jews so it s not clear where that will go looking at history of that relationship is not very encouraging a large percentage of americans thinks the world is only a few thousand years old and the end of times will come within their lifetime and the battle of armageddon will come and blah blah blah who knows what that does to long term foreign policy remember i am talking about decades not years one should worry about what happens in 20 30 40 years you know many of us will still be around then so even from a very selfish perspective one should plan 40 years ahead let alone if one is not a selfish bastard then finally there is this moral thing about killing others let s not get into morals of the situation that s seriously f ked up 1 http mondoweiss net 2014 07 rocket deaths israel html 2 http www lidovky cz muchomurku cervenou fasovali vojaci v bitvach misto alkoholu p63 media aspx c a140807_154055_ln media_sho 3 http en wikipedia org wiki list_of_countries_by_traffic related_death_rate 4 http www lightningsafety noaa gov fatalities htm 5 http www dailymail co uk news article 2715466 israeli official calls concentration camps gaza conquest entire gaza strip annihilation fighting forces supporters html 6 http www mintpressnews com latest gallup poll shows young americans overwhelmingly support palestine 194856 leave a comment july 24 2014 news filed under politics jiri lebl 4 29 pm interesting reading and comparison of news regarding ukraine and gaza so apparently according to russian media people in the west have bad opinion of russia only because the west has had a long lived fascist hatred of russians according to israeli media the rest of the world except us has a low opinion of israel only because they are all anti semite it can t be because anything we do or say because we are perfect even our farts do not smell citation needed rather interestingly 1 fewer almost by half russians view israel negatively percentagewise than do americans so americans are almost twice as anti semitic as russians this might be news to jews living in russia if negative opinion of a country was purely based on racism then it means that racists are able to distinguish between for example north and south koreans also south koreans are really really racist and they really really irrationally hate the north koreans essentially as much as egyptians irrationally hate israelis by the way notice that the survey asked if the country not its people has a positive influence on the world but we are assuming i guess at least in russian and israeli media that nobody can tell the difference between the country and its citizens also the french and the germans seem to really really love each other i mean get a room you two i mean the french and the germans have always liked each other good thing the survey did not ask about belgians because those guys are terrible we all hate the belgians an interesting piece of information from that study is that nigerians pretty much have a positive view of the world most countries they overwhelmingly love and even israel and north korea manage to get over half of nigerians to like them they aren t too crazy about iranians and pakistanis but it s not too bad either it must be wonderful to live in the world of simple explanations that always seem to indicate that the group you belong to is somehow superior to others and others simply hate you because you are so good i think we had a word for that 1 http www globescan com images images pressreleases bbc2012_country_ratings 2012_bbc_country 20rating 20final 20080512 pdf leave a comment april 16 2014 putin vs godwin filed under politics jiri lebl 5 18 am i call godwin s law on russia so by the rules of usenet russia has lost the argument i think the security council should adopt godwin s law any time you call anyone a nazi during an argument you lose your veto power for that issue leave a comment february 27 2014 numbers filed under economics politics jiri lebl 12 43 am when reading news one should do some quick calculations to test for ridiculousness it really makes reading news far funnier let us look at the 19 billion dollar deal where facebook bought whatsapp it is especially hilarious if we interpret this as how much do we as a society value whatsapp versus some other things these are based on just quick googling but they are for just eyeballing the thing not to be taken exactly 1 minimum wage hike there are about 3 6 million people at or below mimimum wage 1 2012 data if we suppose that they would work 250 days a year for 8 hours a day the current...
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