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description= 15 posts published by Lars Syll during September 2023;
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er the ultimate argument for a probability approach in econometrics consists of a mixture of metaphors metaphysics and a pinch of bluff as always if people do not give justifications for the validity of the assumptions they make well then those assumptions are nothing but assumptions just talking about as did haavelmo experimental design hoping that nature takes care of the necessary ceteris paribus conditions and believing it fruitful to treat economic data as if they were a set of truly random data does not take us very far treating observational data as if they were experimental is nothing but wishful thinking based on a totally unwarranted assumption bridging from econometric and statistical models to real world target systems demands much more most of all you have to not just rhetorically search for the real data generating mechanisms the assumptions of imaginary super populations or hypothetical infinite populations are some of the many dubious assumptions used in modern econometrics as social scientists and economists we have to confront the all important question of how to handle uncertainty and randomness should we define randomness with probability if we do we have to accept that to speak of randomness we also have to presuppose the existence of nomological probability machines since probabilities cannot be spoken of and actually to be strict do not at all exist without specifying such system contexts accepting a domain of probability theory and sample space of infinite populations also implies that judgments are made on the basis of observations that are actually never made infinitely repeated trials or samplings never take place in the real world so that cannot be a sound inductive basis for a science with aspirations of explaining real world socio economic processes structures or events it s not tenable and as if this wasn t enough one could as argued also seriously wonder what kind of populations these statistical and econometric models ultimately are based on why should we as social scientists and not as pure mathematicians working with formal axiomatic systems without the urge to confront our models with real target systems unquestioningly accept models based on concepts like the infinite superpopulations used in e g the potential outcome framework that has become so popular lately in social sciences of course one could treat observational or experimental data as random samples from real populations i have no problem with that at least not as long as one remembers that usually the random sampling assumptions do not apply to the kind of convenience samples that economic data standardly constitute and that the usual statistical inferences therefore can not be made however probabilistic econometrics does not content itself with that kind of population instead it creates imaginary populations of parallel universes and assumes that our data are random samples from that kind of infinite superpopulations but this is actually nothing else but hand waving and it is inadequate for real science in social sciences including economics it s always wise to ponder c s peirce s remark that universes are not as common as peanuts nowadays it has almost become a self evident truism among economists that you cannot expect people to take your arguments seriously unless they are based on or backed up by advanced econometric modelling so legions of mathematical statistical theorems are proved and heaps of fiction are being produced masquerading as science the rigour of the econometric modelling and the far reaching assumptions they are built on are frequently not supported by data modelling assumptions made in statistics and econometrics are more often than not made for mathematical tractability reasons rather than verisimilitude that is unfortunately also a reason why the methodological rigour encountered when taking part in statistical and econometric research to a large degree is nothing but a deceptive appearance the models constructed may seem technically advanced and very sophisticated but that s usually only because the problems here discussed have been swept under the carpet assuming that our data are generated by coin flips in an imaginary superpopulation only means that we get answers to questions that we are not asking share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky bankerna driver på klimatkrisen 19 sep 2023 at 13 07 posted in economics comments off on bankerna driver på klimatkrisen offentliga institutioner reglerar redan i dag bankernas penningskapande i allmänhetens intresse om än på ett mycket fragmentariskt sätt det tydligaste exemplet är kanske de strikta skyldigheter som bankerna har för att säkerställa att de pengar de skapar inte används för finansiering av terrorism och penningtvätt tidigare efter andra världskriget styrdes många banker att låna ut till sektorer som ansågs viktiga för den nationella utvecklingen ett annat alternativ vore att staten drar tillbaka bankernas privilegium att skapa pengar och tvingar dem att helt finansiera sin utlåning på egen hand genom att låna in pengar på marknaden i stället för att vår officiella valuta ska skapas automatiskt till vad helst bankerna finner lönsamt som ligger inom lagens ramar så innebär detta alternativ att centralbanken delar ut nyskapade pengar som e kronor eller kontanter exempelvis direkt till medborgarna eller till staten medborgarna eller staten kan då välja hur nya pengar ska användas och aktivt prioritera socialt ekonomiskt och ekologiskt önskvärda och hållbara projekt ska vi klara klimatkrisen så behövs en rejäl offentlig debatt om makten att skapa pengar vi måste erkänna att bankernas pengaskapande har avgörande betydelse för allas vår framtid och att staten som auktoriserat bankerna med denna makt har ett moraliskt ansvar att se till att penningsystemet organiseras för planetens och allmänhetens bästa steve keen lars syll samuel färdow katzen et al share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky radical universalism beyond identity 19 sep 2023 at 09 25 posted in politics society comments off on radical universalism beyond identity the universalist ideas of the enlightenment are still relevant despite the numerous criticisms that have been levelled against them the enlightenment was characterized by a spirit of exploration that led to new discoveries in both science and culture rather than promoting a narrow worldview it encouraged people to question assumptions and religious beliefs it still provides a framework for addressing some of the most pressing problems facing society such as climate change and social inequality enlightenment is man s emergence from his self imposed nonage nonage is the inability to use one s own understanding without another s guidance this nonage is self imposed if its cause lies not in lack of understanding but in indecision and lack of courage to use one s own mind without another s guidance sapere aude have the courage to use your own understanding is therefore the motto of the enlightenment enlightenment requires nothing but freedom and the most innocent of all that may be called freedom freedom to make public use of one s reason in all matters we find restrictions on freedom everywhere but which restriction is harmful to enlightenment which restriction is innocent and which advances enlightenment i reply the public use of one s reason must be free at all times and this alone can bring enlightenment to mankind immanuel kant share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky min vän den sorts människa som gud inte gjorde någon kopia av 18 sep 2023 at 13 02 posted in varia comments off on min vän den sorts människa som gud inte gjorde någon kopia av år 2018 var precis som de flesta år ett år med både glädje och sorg för mig kommer året ändå alltid att främst förknipppas med att det var året då min bäste vän sedan mer än trettio år bengt nilsson gick ur tiden inga ord kan riktigt beskriva vad man känner när en människa man älskat inte längre finns där man minns skratten glädjen omtanken den mäktiga intelligensen den drastiska humorn och det starka sociala patoset i dag är det fem år sedan du gick bort min vän livet går vidare men kommer alltid att vara lite gråare lite tristare utan dig även om det ofta känns som du brukade säga förtvivlat hjälper mig minnet av vår vänskap finna modet att leva vidare du var en vän av den sort som gud inte gjorde någon kopia av och som glömskan aldrig kommer att rå på share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky resisting the statistical significance testing temptation 18 sep 2023 at 10 22 posted in statistics econometrics 3 comments imagine a dictator game in which a mixed sex group of experimental subjects are used as first players who can decide which share of their initial endowment they give to a second player one person acts as second player for the whole group additionally assume that the experimental subjects are a convenience sample but not a random sample of a well defined broader population what kind of statistical inferences are possible neither one of the two chance mechanisms neither random sampling nor randomization applies consequently there is no role for the p value due to engrained disciplinary habits researchers might be tempted to implement statistical significance testing routines in our dictator game example even though there is no chance model upon which to base statistical inference while there is no random process implementing a two sample t test might be the spontaneous reflex to find out whether there is a statistically significant difference between the two sexes one should recognize however that doing so would require that some notion of a random mechanism is accepted in our case this would require imagining a randomization distribution that would result if money amounts were repeatedly assigned to sexes treatments at random our question would be whether the money amounts transferred to the second player differed more between the sexes than what would be expected in the case of such a random assignment we must realize however that there was no random assignment of subjects to treatments i e the sexes might not be independent of covariates therefore the p value based on a two sample t test for a difference in mean does not address the question of whether the difference in the average transferred money is caused by the subjects being male or female that could be the case but the difference could also be due to other reasons such as female subjects being less or more wealthy than male subjects as stated above it would therefore make sense to control for known confounders in a regression analysis ex post again without reference to a p value as long as the experimental subjects have not been recruited through random sampling norbert hirschauer et al as shown over and over again when significance tests are applied people have a tendency to read not disconfirmed as probably confirmed standard scientific methodology tells us that when there is only say a 10 probability that pure sampling error could account for the observed difference between the data and the null hypothesis it would be more reasonable to conclude that we have a case of disconfirmation especially if we perform many independent tests of our hypothesis and they all give about the same 10 result as our reported one i guess most researchers would count the hypothesis as even more disconfirmed we should never forget that the underlying parameters we use when performing significance tests are model constructions our p values mean nothing if the model is wrong and most importantly statistical significance tests do not validate models in journal articles a typical regression equation will have an intercept and several explanatory variables the regression output will usually include an f test with p 1 degrees of freedom in the numerator and n p in the denominator the null hypothesis will not be stated the missing null hypothesis is that all the coefficients vanish except the intercept if f is significant that is often thought to validate the model mistake the f test takes the model as given significance only means this if the model is right and the coefficients are 0 it is very unlikely to get such a big f statistic logically there are three possibilities on the table i an unlikely event occurred ii or the model is right and some of the coefficients differ from 0 iii or the model is wrong so share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky next page recent posts statistics and causality risksamhällets konturer arbetslöshetssiffran som styr den ekonomiska politiken 50 år efter studenten personal finding the late student stuff love s secret stein s paradox a lesson on precision and unbiasedness audioholic summer research ett välförtjänt bottenrekord arbetslösheten inte statsskulden är problemet how credible is the credibility revolution in econometrics randomness and representativeness are not the same lönebildning och arbetslöshet i sverige nancy cartwright s contributions to the philosophy of science what does randomisation guarantee nothing comments policy i like comments follow netiquette comments especially anonymous ones with pseudo argumentations abusive language or irrelevant links will not be posted and please remember being a full time professor leaves only limited time to respond to comments recent comments fredtorssander on arbetslöshetssiffran som styr jan wiklund on risksamhällets konturer jan wiklund on arbetslöshetssiffran som styr jan milch on arbetslöshetssiffran som styr jan 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