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description= Restricting tobacco marketing is a key element in the US Food and Drug Administration’s (FDA) public health framework for regulating tobacco. Given the dearth of empirical data on direct marketing, the objective of this study was to assess the reach ...;
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appendix, and, website, table, of, permalink, methods, results, to, phd, traffic, sales, other, promotions, snus, articles, figure, the, reach, impact, direct, marketing, via, brand, websites, moist, snuff, abstract, discussion, implications, for, tobacco, regulation, acknowledgments, footnotes, contributor, information, references, actions, resources, cite, add, collections, david, timberlake, tim, bruckner, vyvian, ngo, mph, dmitriy, nikitin, ba, objective, conclusions, selection, content, internet, time, series, analysis, coupons, sweepstakes, skoal, grizzly, copenhagen, red, man, timber, wolf, camel, general, similar, cited, by, links, ncbi, databases,
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motions on sales through snuff websites methods nine brands of snuff representing more than 90 of market share were monitored for content of coupons sweepstakes contests and other promotions on their respective websites monthly sales data and website traffic for the 9 brands corresponding to the 48 month period of january 2011 through december 2014 were obtained from proprietary sources a time series analysis based on the autoregressive integrated moving average arima method was employed for testing the relationships among sales website visits and promotions results website traffic increased substantially during the promotion periods for most brands time series analyses however revealed that promotion periods for 5 of 7 brands did not significantly correlate with monthly snuff sales conclusions the success in attracting tobacco consumers to website promotions demonstrates the marketing reach of snuff manufacturers this form of direct marketing should be monitored by the fda given evidence of adolescents exposure to cigarette brand websites keywords snuff direct marketing brand websites sweepstakes the rise in consumption of moist snuff illustrated by a 66 increase in sales between 2005 and 2011 1 is the likely function of a change in product design 2 targeted marketing 3 and differential taxation of tobacco products many of these changes which coincide with the decline in cigarette sales reflect the tobacco industry s efforts to market snuff to smokers and a broader demographic of consumers it is tempting to attribute the growth of snuff sales to the traditional media channels such as magazine advertising because traditional channels are easy to monitor and are well documented in the literature 4 6 the conwood company for example increased its expenditures for magazine advertising by tenfold from 1998 4 million to 2005 4 0 million 7 this increase in advertising expenditures is one factor that may have led to the unprecedented growth in popularity of the brand grizzly from 5 th in 2004 to 1 st in 2009 8 other factors such as low price the 2006 acquisition of conwood manufacturing company of grizzly by r j reynolds and use of other media channels may have contributed to the increase in grizzly s market share whereas the consumer magazine continues to be a prominent media channel for grizzly it is complemented by other forms of advertising 9 richardson et al reported that 1 5 million was spent on direct mail for the discount brand 27 mailings from june 2012 through august 2012 according to the federal trade commission 10 smokeless tobacco advertising expenditures on direct mail exceeded the advertising expenditures on consumer magazines in the year 2011 7 5 million vs 4 8 million respectively direct mail sent from the tobacco company to the tobacco consumer is one form of direct to consumer marketing referred to as direct marketing the 7 5 million spent on direct mail in 2011 underestimates total spending on direct marketing because the figure does not include expenditures on coupons sweepstakes entertainment events brand loyalty programs and other promotions 11 the intent of direct marketing is to build relationships with customers and maintain brand loyalty through a variety of promotional events disseminated through the mail and tobacco brand websites 12 the various forms of direct marketing are increasingly being propagated through tobacco brand websites this expansion is evidenced by the website marlboro com 13 which attracts over one million visitors each month visitors to the website provide product and brand preferences so that marketing can be customized to the individual consumer once a consumer enters identifying information on a brand website usually name birthdate and address the consumer is entered into a database and is subsequently mailed giveaways coupons and information about sweepstakes brock et al reported that upon registering for various tobacco websites they received over 600 marketing pieces by mail in one year 12 the dearth of empirical data on online tobacco marketing is a key research gap in the current era of tobacco regulation 14 ribisl noted the importance of surveying consumer exposure to online marketing and its potential impact on tobacco use 14 thus the first objective of this study was to track changes in website coupons and other promotions on brand websites of moist snuff the premise of the study is that consumers are drawn to the websites during sweepstakes that are advertised through direct mail and communicated via other sources eg social media if the coupons appear frequently on the websites then consumers may be enticed to download and redeem the coupons subsequently leading to greater snuff sales without data on coupon redemption we indirectly tested this hypothesis by examining the promotion periods of sweepstakes and contests with respect to website traffic and monthly snuff sales the study is intended to assess the reach and impact of website promotions for the purpose of monitoring and restricting tobacco marketing this objective is a key element in the us food and drug administration s fda public health framework for regulating tobacco 15 particularly in light of adolescents exposure to tobacco marketing on cigarette brand websites 16 methods website selection and content a convenience sample of 9 brand websites was selected to account for most of the market share of smokeless tobacco in the united states us 92 in 2014 17 the websites were skoal com mygrizzly com freshcope com timberwolfsnuff com longhornsnuff com redman com snus tobaccopleasure com goredseal com and generalsnus com the 9 websites were selected to represent premium snuff brands skoal copenhagen discount snuff brands grizzly timber wolf longhorn red man red seal and snus brands camel snus general snus these brand websites differ from corporate websites eg ussmokeless com because they engage in direct marketing and attempt to restrict website access to adult tobacco consumers five of the 9 websites state that a website visitor must be a tobacco user over the age of 20 whereas the remaining 4 websites state that a visitor must be a tobacco user over the age of 18 in an attempt to block entry to underage visitors the brand websites utilize age verification systems that vary in disclosure of personal identifiable information 18 all 9 websites require name mailing address and date of birth but only 2 websites ie mygrizzly com and snus tobaccopleasure com require the last 4 digits of an individual s social security number a research staff member logged in and tracked the websites weekly from november 2013 through december 2014 the adult staff member gained access to the websites by creating an account based on his her own personal information the weekly tracking of the websites entailed the creation of archival copies of coupons sweepstakes and other promotions that were entered into a database this process allowed the research team to document changes in the promotions that occurred throughout the observation period most of the promotions applied to all website visitors and were not customized to the individual consumer coupons for example indicated savings on a can tin tub or roll without restrictions on the type of tobacco leaf cut eg fine cut or flavoring searches on the websites trinketsandtrash org and online sweepstakes com were then conducted to document promotions excluding coupons from an earlier period january 2011 through october 2013 the starting date of january 2011 was chosen on the basis of cost and availability of data on sales and internet traffic the website online sweepstakes com is considered one of the largest online listings of sweepstakes 19 and includes expired sweepstakes dating back to 2002 trinketsandtrash org a website supported by the school of public health at rutgers university has an engine for searching for marketing materials from the tobacco industry by tobacco brand item date keywords etc searches from the online sources yielded descriptions start dates and expiration dates of the sweepstakes for each of the 9 brands the searches completed data collection for a time series analysis of promotions internet traffic and snuff sales from january 2011 through december 2014 internet traffic and sales unique visitors to the 9 websites aggregated monthly from 2011 through 2014 were estimated from the proprietary firm compete a kantar media company the estimates were derived from a multisource panel of more than 2 million internet users composing a nationally representative sample of adult internet users in the us 20 the weighted estimate for unique visitors represents the number of adult internet users who made one or more visits to a given snuff website within the month compete utilizes a sophisticated algorithm for integrating the data sources ie panel data clickstream data followed by normalization techniques for weighting and projecting metrics eg website visitation from the panel to the population of adult internet users in the us the sales data for this study were obtained from the nielsen company s convenience track system 17 this data source was chosen because snuff purchases assessed from barcode readings and in store audits were obtained from a nationally representative sample of us convenience stores these stores which account for 93 of smokeless tobacco sales nationwide 1 include independent stores chain and non chain stores the sales data were reported as sale units aggregated every 4 weeks from 2011 through 2014 because the sales data n 52 4 week periods did not exactly correspond to the website traffic n 48 months sales data from one 4 week period late december to mid to late january were excluded from each year this adjustment yielded a total of 48 data points with a slight lag between website traffic and sales data for the earlier part of a given year for example website traffic for january 1 through january 31 2011 preceded sales data for the 4 week period spanning january 22 through february 19 2011 time series analysis we applied autoregressive integrated moving average arima methods recommended in the epidemiologic literature 21 to test the relation among promotions excluding coupons website traffic and sales the 4 types of online promotions included in the time series analysis were games contests sweepstakes and giveaways coupons were excluded from the analysis because of their ever presence on the websites table 1 positive associations with monthly snuff sales or website traffic occur when the volume of sales measured in cans of snuff exceeds the volume expected from periods when promotions were not held snuff sales however may exhibit temporal patterns such as a rising or declining trend in sales seasonality or the tendency for low values to be followed similarly by low values these patterns collectively referred to as autocorrelation complicate correlational tests because the expected value of snuff sales is not the mean of sales from earlier months table 1 characteristics of online coupons for 9 snuff brands tracked weekly from november 2013 through december 2014 brand coupon s on 11 1 13 no coupon changes advertising phrase in coupon total c new d camel snus e 1 off one tin 0 0 coupon me copenhagen f 3 50 off roll a 2 2 weekly coupon to mobile phone general snus g 1 can 2 off any can 1 0 saving has never been so satisfying grizzly e 1 off one can 1 1 bag a buck or two longhorn g 2 50 off roll or tub 14 2 real dip real deal red man g 1 off 1 can 3 off 2 cans 17 2 fresh red man savings red seal f 1 off 1 can 3 75 off roll 3 0 the red seal monthly deal skoal f buy one get one free b 3 3 save some coin on your favorite can timber wolf g none 11 4 claim your timber wolf coupon open in a new tab note a contains 5 cans b applies to skoal classic also 1 off skoal xtra c total number of replacements for either a recycled coupon or a new coupon type or value from 11 1 13 through the period 11 6 13 12 31 14 d number of new coupons with a new coupon value e reynolds american parent company f altria group inc parent company g swedish match time series methods developed by box and jenkins 22 address the issue of autocorrelation by empirically identifying and removing patterns in the dependent variable the time series routines include autocorrelation parameters via an arima error term such that the residual sales exhibit no autocorrelation and have a monthly expected value of 0 the arima approach uses autoregressive ar and moving average ma parameters to model the tendency to remain elevated be depressed or oscillate ar parameters best describe patterns that persist for relatively long periods whereas ma parameters parsimoniously describe less persistent patterns the integrated i parameter serves as a differencing operator if a series exhibits a strong trend ie non stationary mean the 2 panels in figure 1 illustrate the arima process by plotting the sales of grizzly snuff before top panel and after bottom panel removal of autocorrelation the top panel shows strong trend and seasonality in sales by contrast the bottom panel shows no such patterns sales in each month are serially independent we use this residual data as the dependent variable series when examining the relation between promotions or web traffic and sales volume figure 1 open in a new tab plots of grizzly raw sales and residual sales across 48 months following the detection and removal of autocorrelation after applying time series routines to each of the 9 dependent variables ie sales of the 9 brands we inserted the promotions variable into the equation to determine whether it correlated positively with a concurrent rise in sales the variable had a binary response denoting the presence or absence of any promotion which most often was a contest or sweepstake contests and sweepstakes were treated the same in the analysis because there was no reason to believe that they differed regarding website traffic or snuff sales multiple promotions occurred concurrently for some brands but were too infrequent to model on a continuum furthermore unlike the coupons the contests and sweepstakes occurred intermittently throughout the observation period thereby facilitating analysis of the binary variable for most of the brands for example the brands skoal and grizzly held promotions for 13 and 24 months respectively of the 48 total months observed in the study we also examined the relationship between the promotions and website traffic in a separate set of models furthermore we repeated the analysis of snuff sales using website traffic as the independent variable to examine whether website activity more generally corresponded with an increase in snuff sales for all analyses we specified a concurrent relation ie lag of 0 months due to the slight lag already induced by the exclusion of 4 data points see section internet traffic and sales all analyses were conducted with software from scientific computing 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