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ave a comment the embarrassment that is the allianz climate change report posted by the diatribe guy on may 30 2012 i am an actuary in the insurance industry and so receive information of all sorts that are supposed to enlighten me and assist me in my job whether it is a better model to use in forecasting future experience based on current trends for the purpose of pricing products or accurate assessment of ultimate losses on current inforce products it is imperative that i understand new advancements in predictive modeling underlying trends and results of different studies to most benefit my company and the customers we serve in this capacity i recently came across a 97 page effort by allianz in partnership with get this the wwf world wide fund for nature entitled major tipping points in the earth s climate system and consequences of the insurance sector as someone who wants to base pricing considerations on observed experience and modeled trends i was curious about this paper and how it is implied that this is to be used by the insurance industry the report isn t a new one but it was the first i had run across it the very first line of the paper reads climate change resulting from emissions of co2 and other greenhouse gases ghgs is widely regarded to be the greatest environmental challenge facing the world today ominous page one teaches us some interesting details i learned that there is no global agreement or scientific consensus for delineating dangerous from acceptable climate change but 2 degrees celsius seems like a good number the origin of that 2 degree number is not clear but seems to be promoted based on the unfccc assessment report ar4 we then learn about tipping points the theory here is that while temperature may increase gradually there are points where a small change can make a big difference in the system the cited reference here is m gladwell the tipping point how little things can make a big difference it is unclear to me if this is a how to book on marriage or something spelling out the global catastrophes to come but apparently it s good enough for the reinsurance industry well anyway this is just the executive summary which includes examples of tipping points it appears we are talking about disasters such as effects of rise in sea levels a shift in monsoon seasons amazon drought and an overly arid southwest u s no mention of comets or alien attack so i guess we re sticking to things we can control there is then a touching take home message to conclude the executive summary we learn that past emissions have already committed us to at least 0 6 degrees of further warming because we re lazy and lackluster in our efforts to combat it the 2 3 degrees scenario is almost certain to happen ominous i must say as i read the actual body of the document i was pretty disappointed with my reinsurance brothers and sisters we start with simply references to other works clearly fed to them by wwf and other environmentalist groups un studies ipcc papers etc tell us there will not be a smooth transition into warmer temperatures this leads into the definitions and characteristics of tipping points which let s be honest insurance people will not know whether the studies they are reading are right or wrong they re insurance people but in any case it doesn t appear that there was a serious attempt to reach out to alternative opinons on the matter nobody called me which can be expected more importantly i don t think dr roy spencer got a call either i don t even think jeff from the air vent was consulted a travesty section 2 focuses on identifying tipping elements based on ipcc ar4 on a serious note from a reinsurance standpoint the things they are looking at need to be considered for the purpose of understanding exposure to risk what kind of storm activity tends to occur with changes in the enso amplitude what is the exposure in the event of differences in monsoon activity around the globe what are the insurance impacts to glaciers melting what are the impacts of this event or that event all legitimate questions to make sure the company can sustain viability should certain things occur that impact loss payouts the issue i have here is putting such study in a document that doesn t just use global warming theory as a what if scenario but presents it as a given we then get into all sorts of scenarios around different tipping points it s all the same stuff greenland arctic ice sea level rises the antarctic carbon stores in permafrost amplified global warming you know and so on then we get into tipping points that can tip other points or something like that section 3 highlights the greatest risks to our dismal future so what am i most disappointed in my disappointment is mainly that this is a piece of propaganda disguised as an insurance study if it is an insurance study it s a horrible one and i d fire anyone who resented it to me as a definitive assessment i see no industry experience and actual trends presented it is a study in the sense that it covers a lot of what if scenarios which is an entirely legitimate exercise but it provides them as a near certainty as opposed to a random probabilistic event oh sure there are a lot of graphs and charts that lead one to believe that this is a rigorous study but it is not it is a study that has at its basis a complete trust in the views and conclusions of a few un sponsored reports and other data that is derived in its entirety from the pro agw side it reeks of being a un lapdog in anticipation of taking advantage of climate change scenarios and scare tactics for a lining of the pockets and future power grab the study into the what ifs seems pretty sound this part is fine which is what i would expect from experts in the reinsurance industry because this is what they do they assess exposures risks and loss impacts given a scenario in which to estimate that impact this paper however assumes the scenario to be reality so what is my analysis on why allianz would release an otherwise legitimate exposure analysis in the form of a drivel packed politically correct report m o n e y suppose that allianz convinces regulators and customers alike of the need for a loss provision due to global warming impacts in their policies imagine tax advantages for surplus funds set aside for these events now imagine that every future weather event can be attributed to global warming wait i mean climate change so that a demonstrable drawdown on global warming reserves reinforces the idea of human cause impacts on the weather and storms the propaganda becomes self perpetuating and ever more profitable at some point it is likely that all weather risk can be transferred at a guaranteed margin to a global fund to cover all climate change related events more conspiratorial imagine a world of crony capitalism where those who were on the right side benefit disproportionately as the un wields more power and is able to give preferential treatment to its friends with the right message this is simply allianz seeing the future and hoping to profit from it and to help it along what better than to actually promote the entire idea yourself all in so to speak yeah color me skeptical i ve got news for everyone who wants to give reinsurers the benefit of the doubt i ve been in this business long enough to realize that despite all their fancy modeling and theories they are the least rational reactionaries to risk there is supposedly this price is based on long term history until something happens at which time your rates quadruple then as competitors enter the market they end up underpricing products so whatever sophistication they start with it goes out the window in a real hurry but i m sure this is different and i m sure they mean well for more fun with allianz and climate change tipping points check this out http knowledge allianz com climate_tipping_points climate_en html posted in actuarial topics allianz business climate change environmentalism global warming indoctrination information peer review politics united nations tagged actuarial review allianz climate change crony capitalism environmentalism global warming indoctrination reinsurance tipping points un united nations 3 comments april 2012 hadcrut anomaly posted by the diatribe guy on may 29 2012 i will not be updating the charts in the wake of the latest anomaly released but thought i d throw out the quick note that it came in at 0 482 which breaks the stretch of lower anomalies over the last number of months this is the highest the value has been since late 2010 posted in hadcrut temperature analysis updates tagged anomalies global temperature hadcrut temperature leave a comment random slope charts hadcrut posted by the diatribe guy on may 24 2012 i ll put these charts up without much comment i updated them so i thought i d post them each one represents the historical slope values for the different trend line lenghts 60 120 360 i just find it interesting to see how the best fit trend lines adjust over time and compare where we re at now to historical values 60 hc slopes history 120 hc slopes history 180 hc slopes history 240 hc slopes history 300 hc slopes history 360 hc slopes history posted in data global warming hadcrut information science temperature analysis updates tagged climate change global temperatures global warming hadcrut temperature temperature analysis temperature charts temperature stats temperature trends leave a comment temperature trends for the last 360 months hadcrut posted by the diatribe guy on may 23 2012 here are the latest charts for the hadcrut global temperature anomalies for the 30 year period ending march 2012 the data what is presented here is the trend over the last 360 months the slope of which has been in consistent decline over the last eight years the current slope itself is 1279 this puts the longer term trendline of 30 years at a higher slope level than the 20 or 25 year magnitude if one were to extrapolate this value forward as an expectation of continued warming it would represent a 1 53 celsius temperature increase per century this spurred the question to me as to what starting point in time to current represents the highest current slope the answer to that is using a starting point of january 1974 37 years 3 months which has a current slope value of 0 13735 cherry picking that data point would indicate warming at a rate of 1 65 degrees celsius per century all trend lines shorter than that starting at least 4 months ago or longer than than have a smaller slope value chart below trend line over last 360 months hadcrut the next chart is simply a point of comparison the highest slope value in recent years occurred with the 30 year period ending december 2003 at the height of global warming hysteria peak 360 month trend line finally i show what has transpired with the slopes in recent years with the 30 year trend line there has been a consistent decline in the slopes since november 2003 of the best fitted lines the decline itself is a very close linear fit though not quite as tight as some of the previous charts there are periods of deceleration and acceleration in the trend and even some periods where the slope value increases a bit for a time similar to the 25 year chart in the most recent few months you can see it accelerate in its declining value there is little indication that this decline will halt in the near term i should explain how i arrive at that statement i have a spreadsheet set up to emulate future periods so by simply typing in prospective anomaly values i can see what the level of the number needs to be in order to put an end to the declining slope values by way of exercise here are the anomaly values needed to keep the slope the same from the current value to some period in the near future 1 for the slope to remain level as of april 2012 month end the next anomaly value has to be 52 2 for the slope to remain level from april to may the may anomaly needs to be 51 3 for the slope to remain level from may to june the june anomaly needs to be 60 4 for the slope to remain level from june to july the july anomaly needs to be 57 none of these values are impossible however given the fact that last 20 anomaly readings are under 50 it would seem unlikely to expect such a series of values suddenly emerge trend in recent 360 month slopes posted in data global warming hadcrut information science temperature analysis updates tagged climate change global temperatures global warming hadcrut temperature temperature analysis temperature charts temperature stats temperature trends leave a comment temperature trends for the last 300 months hadcrut posted by the diatribe guy on may 22 2012 here are the latest charts for the hadcrut global temperature anomalies for the 25 year period ending march 2012 the data what is presented here is the trend over the last 300 months the slope of which has been in very consistent decline over the last five years the current slope itself is 113 actually a bit less than the 20 year slope so at this point the 25 year trend is still positive chart below trend line over last 300 months hadcrut the next chart is simply a point of comparison the highest slope value in recent years occurred with the 25 year period ending february 2007 peak 300 month trend line finally i show what has transpired with the slopes in recent years with the 25 year trend line there has been a consistent decline in the slopes of the best fitted lines the decline itself is a very close linear fit though in the most recent periods you can see it accelerate in its declining value there is little indication that this decline will halt in the near term if i plug the latest 12 month average anomalies the values continue to decline trend in recent 300 month slopes posted in data global warming hadcrut information science temperature analysis updates tagged climate change global temperatures global warming hadcrut temperature temperature analysis temperature charts temperature stats temperature trends 2 comments temperature trends for the last 240 months hadcrut posted by the diatribe guy on may 21 2012 here are the latest charts for the hadcrut global temperature anomalies for the 20 year period ending march 2012 the data what is presented here is the trend over the last 240 months the slope of which has been in very consistent decline over the last eight years the current slope itself is 1228 sp at this point the 20 year trend is still positive even though the last 15 year trend line is slightly negative this is due to the first five years of the period 1992 97 exhibiting lower anomalies than current averages that said the current slope is the lowest value for a 20 year trend line fitted since the period ending june 1998 chart below trend line over last 240 months hadcrut the next chart is simply a point of comparison the highest slope value in recent years occurred with the 20 year period ending june 2004 peak 240 month...
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