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globe what are the insurance impacts to glaciers melting what are the impacts of this event or that event all legitimate questions to make sure the company can sustain viability should certain things occur that impact loss payouts the issue i have here is putting such study in a document that doesn t just use global warming theory as a what if scenario but presents it as a given we then get into all sorts of scenarios around different tipping points it s all the same stuff greenland arctic ice sea level rises the antarctic carbon stores in permafrost amplified global warming you know and so on then we get into tipping points that can tip other points or something like that section 3 highlights the greatest risks to our dismal future so what am i most disappointed in my disappointment is mainly that this is a piece of propaganda disguised as an insurance study if it is an insurance study it s a horrible one and i d fire anyone who resented it to me as a definitive assessment i see no industry experience and actual trends presented it is a study in the sense that it covers a lot of what if scenarios which is an entirely legitimate exercise but it provides them as a near certainty as opposed to a random probabilistic event oh sure there are a lot of graphs and charts that lead one to believe that this is a rigorous study but it is not it is a study that has at its basis a complete trust in the views and conclusions of a few un sponsored reports and other data that is derived in its entirety from the pro agw side it reeks of being a un lapdog in anticipation of taking advantage of climate change scenarios and scare tactics for a lining of the pockets and future power grab the study into the what ifs seems pretty sound this part is fine which is what i would expect from experts in the reinsurance industry because this is what they do they assess exposures risks and loss impacts given a scenario in which to estimate that impact this paper however assumes the scenario to be reality so what is my analysis on why allianz would release an otherwise legitimate exposure analysis in the form of a drivel packed politically correct report m o n e y suppose that allianz convinces regulators and customers alike of the need for a loss provision due to global warming impacts in their policies imagine tax advantages for surplus funds set aside for these events now imagine that every future weather event can be attributed to global warming wait i mean climate change so that a demonstrable drawdown on global warming reserves reinforces the idea of human cause impacts on the weather and storms the propaganda becomes self perpetuating and ever more profitable at some point it is likely that all weather risk can be transferred at a guaranteed margin to a global fund to cover all climate change related events more conspiratorial imagine a world of crony capitalism where those who were on the right side benefit disproportionately as the un wields more power and is able to give preferential treatment to its friends with the right message this is simply allianz seeing the future and hoping to profit from it and to help it along what better than to actually promote the entire idea yourself all in so to speak yeah color me skeptical i ve got news for everyone who wants to give reinsurers the benefit of the doubt i ve been in this business long enough to realize that despite all their fancy modeling and theories they are the least rational reactionaries to risk there is supposedly this price is based on long term history until something happens at which time your rates quadruple then as competitors enter the market they end up underpricing products so whatever sophistication they start with it goes out the window in a real hurry but i m sure this is different and i m sure they mean well for more fun with allianz and climate change tipping points check this out http knowledge allianz com climate_tipping_points climate_en html posted in actuarial topics allianz business climate change environmentalism global warming indoctrination information peer review politics united nations tagged actuarial review allianz climate change crony capitalism environmentalism global warming indoctrination reinsurance tipping points un united nations 3 comments april 2012 hadcrut anomaly posted by the diatribe guy on may 29 2012 i will not be updating the charts in the wake of the latest anomaly released but thought i d throw out the quick note that it came in at 0 482 which breaks the stretch of lower anomalies over the last number of months this is the highest the value has been since late 2010 posted in hadcrut temperature analysis updates tagged anomalies global temperature hadcrut temperature leave a comment random slope charts hadcrut posted by the diatribe guy on may 24 2012 i ll put these charts up without much comment i updated them so i thought i d post them each one represents the historical slope values for the different trend line lenghts 60 120 360 i just find it interesting to see how the best fit trend lines adjust over time and compare where we re at now to historical values 60 hc slopes history 120 hc slopes history 180 hc slopes history 240 hc slopes history 300 hc slopes history 360 hc slopes history posted in data global warming hadcrut information science temperature analysis updates tagged climate change global temperatures global warming hadcrut temperature temperature analysis temperature charts temperature stats temperature trends leave a comment temperature trends for the last 360 months hadcrut posted by the diatribe guy on may 23 2012 here are the latest charts for the hadcrut global temperature anomalies for the 30 year period ending march 2012 the data what is presented here is the trend over the last 360 months the slope of which has been in consistent decline over the last eight years the current slope itself is 1279 this puts the longer term trendline of 30 years at a higher slope level than the 20 or 25 year magnitude if one were to extrapolate this value forward as an expectation of continued warming it would represent a 1 53 celsius temperature increase per century this spurred the question to me as to what starting point in time to current represents the highest current slope the answer to that is using a starting point of january 1974 37 years 3 months which has a current slope value of 0 13735 cherry picking that data point would indicate warming at a rate of 1 65 degrees celsius per century all trend lines shorter than that starting at least 4 months ago or longer than than have a smaller slope value chart below trend line over last 360 months hadcrut the next chart is simply a point of comparison the highest slope value in recent years occurred with the 30 year period ending december 2003 at the height of global warming hysteria peak 360 month trend line finally i show what has transpired with the slopes in recent years with the 30 year trend line there has been a consistent decline in the slopes since november 2003 of the best fitted lines the decline itself is a very close linear fit though not quite as tight as some of the previous charts there are periods of deceleration and acceleration in the trend and even some periods where the slope value increases a bit for a time similar to the 25 year chart in the most recent few months you can see it accelerate in its declining value there is little indication that this decline will halt in the near term i should explain how i arrive at that statement i have a spreadsheet set up to emulate future periods so by simply typing in prospective anomaly values i can see what the level of the number needs to be in order to put an end to the declining slope values by way of exercise here are the anomaly values needed to keep the slope the same from the current value to some period in the near future 1 for the slope to remain level as of april 2012 month end the next anomaly value has to be 52 2 for the slope to remain level from april to may the may anomaly needs to be 51 3 for the slope to remain level from may to june the june anomaly needs to be 60 4 for the slope to remain level from june to july the july anomaly needs to be 57 none of these values are impossible however given the fact that last 20 anomaly readings are under 50 it would seem unlikely to expect such a series of values suddenly emerge trend in recent 360 month slopes posted in data global warming hadcrut information science temperature analysis updates tagged climate change global temperatures global warming hadcrut temperature temperature analysis temperature charts temperature stats temperature trends leave a comment temperature trends for the last 300 months hadcrut posted by the diatribe guy on may 22 2012 here are the latest charts for the hadcrut global temperature anomalies for the 25 year period ending march 2012 the data what is presented here is the trend over the last 300 months the slope of which has been in very consistent decline over the last five years the current slope itself is 113 actually a bit less than the 20 year slope so at this point the 25 year trend is still positive chart below trend line over last 300 months hadcrut the next chart is simply a point of comparison the highest slope value in recent years occurred with the 25 year period ending february 2007 peak 300 month trend line finally i show what has transpired with the slopes in recent years with the 25 year trend line there has been a consistent decline in the slopes of the best fitted lines the decline itself is a very close linear fit though in the most recent periods you can see it accelerate in its declining value there is little indication that this decline will halt in the near term if i plug the latest 12 month average anomalies the values continue to decline trend in recent 300 month slopes posted in data global warming hadcrut information science temperature analysis updates tagged climate change global temperatures global warming hadcrut temperature temperature analysis temperature charts temperature stats temperature trends 2 comments temperature trends for the last 240 months hadcrut posted by the diatribe guy on may 21 2012 here are the latest charts for the hadcrut global temperature anomalies for the 20 year period ending march 2012 the data what is presented here is the trend over the last 240 months the slope of which has been in very consistent decline over the last eight years the current slope itself is 1228 sp at this point the 20 year trend is still positive even though the last 15 year trend line is slightly negative this is due to the first five years of the period 1992 97 exhibiting lower anomalies than current averages that said the current slope is the lowest value for a 20 year trend line fitted since the period ending june 1998 chart below trend line over last 240 months hadcrut the next chart is simply a point of comparison the highest slope value in recent years occurred with the 20 year period ending june 2004 peak 240 month trend line finally i show what has transpired with the slopes over the last number of years with the 20 year trend line there has been a consistent decline in the slopes of the best fitted lines the decline itself is a very close linear fit there is little indication that this decline will halt in the near term if i plug the latest 12 month average anomalies into each of the next 6 months we see this trend line dipping below the 0 10 mark in 6 7 months trend in recent 240 month slopes posted in data global warming hadcrut information science temperature analysis updates tagged climate change global temperatures global warming hadcrut temperature temperature analysis temperature charts temperature stats temperature trends leave a comment temperature trends for the last 180 months hadcrut posted by the diatribe guy on may 17 2012 here are the latest charts for the hadcrut global temperature anomalies for the 15 year period ending march 2012 the data what is presented here is the trend over the last 180 months the slope of which has been in very consistent decline over the last five years the current slope itself is 0106 and it is the second month in which the trend line is negative the current slope is the lowest value for a 15 year trend line fitted since february 1977 back when people were concerned about another ice age chart below trend line over last 180 months hadcrut the next chart is simply a point of comparison the highest slope value in recent years occurred with the 15 year period ending february 2007 peak 180 month trend line finally i show what has transpired with the slopes over the last number of years with the 15 year trend line there has been a consistent decline in the slopes of the best fitted lines the decline itself is a very close linear fit there is little indication that this decline will halt in the near term if i plug the latest 12 month average anomalies into each of the next 6 months we see this trend line dipping below the 0 03 mark trend in recent 180 month slopes posted in data global warming hadcrut information science temperature analysis updates tagged climate change global temperatures global warming hadcrut temperature temperature analysis temperature charts temperature stats temperature trends 1 comment temperature trends for the last 120 months hadcrut posted by the diatribe guy on may 16 2012 here are the latest charts for the hadcrut global temperature anomalies for the 10 year period ending march 2012 the data what is presented here is the trend over the last 120 months the slope of which has been in very consistent decline over the last decade the current slope itself is 083722 which represents a cooling rate of 0 1 degrees per decade the negative slope of 0 086789 that occurred as of the ten year period ending february 2012 was the steepest negative trend line fitted since may 1969 if my spreadsheet and eyeballs are working correctly chart below trend line over last 120 months hadcrut the next chart is simply a point of comparison the highest slope value in recent years occurred with the 10 year period ending june 2002 the ten year slope does wobble but not as much as the five year slope does peak 120 month trend line finally i just wanted to graphically show what has transpired with the slopes over the last number of years with the ten year trend line there has been a consistent decline in the best fitted 10 year trend lines the decline itself is a very close linear fit there is little indication that this decline will halt in the near term if i plug the latest 12 month average anomalies into each of the next 6 months we see this trend line dipping below the 0 1 mark trend in recent 120 month slopes posted in data global warming hadcrut information science temperature analysis updates leave a comment previous entries create a free website or blog at wordpress com subscribe subscribed digital diatribes sign me up have a 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