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description= 15 posts published by Lars Syll during June 2018;
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iously non justifiable a gadget is just a gadget and brilliantly silly simple models is lm included do not help us working with the fundamental issues of modern economies any more than brilliantly silly complicated models calibrated dsge and rbc models included krugman s formalization schizophrenia 28 jun 2018 at 10 17 posted in economics 7 comments in an article published last week nicholas gruen criticized the modern vogue of formalization in economics and took paul krugman as an example he s saying first that economists can t see what isn t in their models whereas hicks and pretty much every economist until the late twentieth century would have understood the need for careful and ongoing reconciliation of formal modelling and other sources of knowledge more shockingly he s saying that those who smell a rat at the dysfunctionality of all this should just get over themselves to quote krugman you may not like this tendency certainly economists tend to be too quick to dismiss what has not been formalized although i believe that the focus on models is basically right it s ironic given how compellingly krugman has documented the regression of macroeconomics in the same period that saw his own rise via new trade theory i think both retrogressions were driven by formalisation at all costs though in the case of new classical macro this mindset gave additional licence to the motivated reasoning of the libertarian right in each case economics regresses into scholastic abstractions and obviously important parts of the story slide pristine invisibility to the elect responding to the article paul krugman yesterday rode out to defend formalism in economics what about new trade theory what us new trade theorists did was say it looks as if there s a lot going on in world trade that can t be explained in existing formal models so let s see if there s a different approach to modeling that can make sense of what we see now we can argue about how much good this formalization did i still believe that the formal models provided a level of clarity and legitimacy to trade discussion that wasn t there before now this is not as shown in gruen s article the first time krugman has felt the urge to defend mainstream formalization in another post up on his blog krugman argues that the discipline of modeling is a sine qua non for tackling politically and emotionally charged economic issues in my experience modeling is a helpful tool among others in avoiding that trap in being self aware when you re starting to let your desired conclusions dictate your analysis why because when you try to write down a model it often seems to lead some place you weren t expecting or wanting to go and if you catch yourself fiddling with the model to get something else out of it that should set off a little alarm in your brain so when krugman and other modern mainstream economists use their models standardly assuming rational expectations walrasian market clearing unique equilibria time invariance linear separability and homogeneity of both inputs outputs and technology infinitely lived intertemporally optimizing representative agents with homothetic and identical preferences etc and standardly ignoring complexity diversity uncertainty coordination problems non market clearing prices real aggregation problems emergence expectations formation etc we are supposed to believe that this somehow helps them to avoid motivated reasoning that validates what you want to hear and provide legitimacy yours truly is to say the least far from convinced the alarm that sets off in my brain is that this rather than being helpful for understanding real world economic issues sounds more like an ill advised plaidoyer for voluntarily taking on a methodological straight jacket of unsubstantiated and known to be false assumptions krugman as we all know can at times be a harsh critique of economic formalism that is other people s formalism his own and other new keynesians formalizations he always seems to find some handy justification for contrary to the impression krugman wants to convey his and other new keynesians modelling strategy has a lot in common with that of people like robert lucas and thomas sargent new keynesian macroeconomic models build on real business cycle foundations regularly assuming representative actors rational expectations market clearing and equilibrium but if we know that real people and markets cannot be expected to obey these assumptions the warrants for supposing that conclusions or hypothesis of causally relevant mechanisms or regularities can be bridged are obviously non justifiable iq tests genetics and the flynn effect 28 jun 2018 at 09 17 posted in varia comments off on iq tests genetics and the flynn effect the main reason why almost all econometric models are wrong 27 jun 2018 at 11 59 posted in statistics econometrics 3 comments since econometrics doesn t content itself with only making optimal predictions but also aspires to explain things in terms of causes and effects econometricians need loads of assumptions most important of these are additivity and linearity important simply because if they are not true your model is invalid and descriptively incorrect and when the model is wrong well then it s wrong the assumption of additivity and linearity means that the outcome variable is in reality linearly related to any predictors and that if you have several predictors then their combined effect is best described by adding their effects together this assumption is the most important because if it is not true then even if all other assumptions are met your model is invalid because you have described it incorrectly it s a bit like calling your pet cat a dog you can try to get it to go in a kennel or to fetch sticks or to sit when you tell it to but don t be surprised when its behaviour isn t what you expect because even though you ve called it a dog it is in fact a cat similarly if you have described your statistical model inaccurately it won t behave itself and there s no point in interpreting its parameter estimates or worrying about significance tests of confidence intervals the model is wrong andy field let me take the opportunity to elaborate a little on why i find these assumptions of such paramount importance and ought to be much more argued for on both epistemological and ontological grounds if at all being used limiting model assumptions in economic science always have to be closely examined since if we are going to be able to show that the mechanisms or causes that we isolate and handle in our models are stable in the sense that they do not change when we export them to our target systems we have to be able to show that they do not only hold under ceteris paribus conditions and a fortiori only are of limited value to our understanding explanations or predictions of real economic systems our admiration for technical virtuosity should not blind us to the fact that we have to have a cautious attitude towards probabilistic inferences in economic contexts we should look out for causal relations but econometrics can never be more than a starting point in that endeavour since econometric statistical explanations are not explanations in terms of mechanisms powers capacities or causes firmly stuck in an empiricist tradition econometrics is only concerned with the measurable aspects of reality but there is always the possibility that there are other variables of vital importance and although perhaps unobservable and non additive not necessarily epistemologically inaccessible that were not considered for the model those who were can hence never be guaranteed to be more than potential causes and not real causes a rigorous application of econometric methods in economics really presupposes that the phenomena of our real world economies are ruled by stable causal relations between variables a perusal of the leading econom etr ic journals shows that most econometricians still concentrate on fixed parameter models and that parameter values estimated in specific spatio temporal contexts are presupposed to be exportable to totally different contexts to warrant this assumption one however has to convincingly establish that the targeted acting causes are stable and invariant so that they maintain their parametric status after the bridging the endemic lack of predictive success of the econometric project indicates that this hope of finding fixed parameters is a hope for which there really is no other ground than hope itself real world social systems are not governed by stable causal mechanisms or capacities the kinds of laws and relations that econometrics has established are laws and relations about entities in models that presuppose causal mechanisms being atomistic and additive when causal mechanisms operate in real world systems they only do it in ever changing and unstable combinations where the whole is more than a mechanical sum of parts if economic regularities obtain they do it as a rule only because we engineered them for that purpose outside man made nomological machines they are rare or even non existent unfortunately that also makes most of the achievements of econometrics as most of the contemporary endeavours of mainstream economic theoretical modelling rather useless no matter how often you call your pet cat a dog it is still nothing but a cat share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky uncertainty heuristics 27 jun 2018 at 09 56 posted in theory of science methodology comments off on uncertainty heuristics animal cruelty and human dignity 26 jun 2018 at 17 09 posted in politics society 1 comment throughout european history the idea of the human being has been expressed in contradistinction to the animal the latter s lack of reason is the proof of human dignity so insistently and unanimously has this antithesis been recited that few other ideas are so fundamental to western anthropology the antithesis is acknowledged even today the behaviorists only appear to have forgotten it that they apply to human beings the same formulae and results which they wring without restraint from defenseless animals in their abominable physiological laboratories proclaims the difference in especially subtle way the conclusion they draw from the mutilated animal bodies applies not to animals in freedom but to human beings today by mistreating animals they announce that they and only they in the whole of creation function voluntarily in the same mechanical blind automatic way the twitching movements of the bound victims made use of by the expert in this world liberated from appearance in which human beings having forfeited reflection have become once more the cleverest animals which subjugate the rest of the universe when they happen not to be tear ing themselves apart to show concern for animals is considered no longer merely sentimental but a betrayal of progress so much for statistical objectivity 26 jun 2018 at 15 39 posted in statistics econometrics 4 comments last year we recruited 29 teams of researchers and asked them to answer the same research question with the same data set teams approached the data with a wide array of analytical techniques and obtained highly varied results all teams were given the same large data set collected by a sports statistics firm across four major football leagues it included referee calls counts of how often referees encountered each player and player demographics including team position height and weight it also included a rating of players skin colour of the 29 teams 20 found a statistically significant correlation between skin colour and red cards findings varied enormously from a slight and non significant tendency for referees to give more red cards to light skinned players to a strong trend of giving more red cards to dark skinned players had any one of these 29 analyses come out as a single peer reviewed publication the conclusion could have ranged from no race bias in referee decisions to a huge bias raphael silberzahn eric uhlmann research that strongly underlines that even in statistics the researcher has many degrees of freedom in statistics as in economics and econometrics the results we get depend on the assumptions we make in our models changing those assumptions playing a more important role than the data we feed into our models leed to far reaching changes in our conclusions using statistics is no guarantee we get at any objective truth share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky take full responsibility for your life 26 jun 2018 at 10 14 posted in varia comments off on take full responsibility for your life never give in never give up lying with statistics 25 jun 2018 at 19 25 posted in statistics econometrics comments off on lying with statistics nonsense is nonsense 25 jun 2018 at 16 32 posted in economics 3 comments the conservative belief that there is some law of nature which prevents men from being employed that it is rash to employ men and that it is financially sound to maintain a tenth of the population in idleness for an indefinite period is crazily improbable the sort of thing which no man could believe who had not had his head fuddled with nonsense for years and years our main task therefore will be to confirm the reader s instinct that what seems sensible is sensible and what seems nonsense is nonsense we shall try to show him that the conclusion that if new forms of employment are offered more men will be employed is as obvious as it sounds and contains no hidden snags that to set unemployed men to work on useful tasks does what it appears to do namely increases the national wealth and that the notion that we shall for intricate reasons ruin ourselves financially if we use this means to increase our well being is what it looks like a bogy john maynard keynes 1929 share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky brave women 25 jun 2018 at 15 50 posted in politics society comments off on brave women courage is a capability to confront fear as when in front of the powerful and mighty not to step back but stand up for one s rights not to be humiliated or abused courage is to do the right thing in spite of danger and fear to keep on even if opportunities to turn back are given dignity a better life or justice and rule of law are things worth fighting for not to step back in spite of confronting the mighty and powerful creates courageous acts that stay in our memories and means something as when this iranian woman refuses to be harassed by self appointed moral guardians the american descent 24 jun 2018 at 12 57 posted in politics society comments off on the american descent the speed of america s moral descent under donald trump is breathtaking in a matter of months we ve...
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