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description= 15 posts published by Lars Syll during October 2023;
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won the 2021 nobel prize in economics is their late approach used especially in instrumental variables estimation of causal effects another prominent nobel prize winner in economics angus deaton is not overly impressed without explicit prior consideration of the effect of the instrument choice on the parameter being estimated such a procedure is effectively the opposite of standard statistical practice in which a parameter of interest is defined first followed by an estimator that delivers that parameter instead we have a procedure in which the choice of the instrument which is guided by criteria designed for a situation in which there is no heterogeneity is implicitly allowed to determine the parameter of interest this goes beyond the old story of looking for an object where the light is strong enough to see rather we have at least some control over the light but choose to let it fall where it may and then proclaim that whatever it illuminates is what we were looking for all along i find it hard to make any sense of the late we are unlikely to learn much about the processes at work if we refuse to say anything about what determines the effect parameter θ heterogeneity is not a technical problem calling for an econometric solution but a reflection of the fact that we have not started on our proper business which is trying to understand what is going on of course if we are as skeptical of the ability of economic theory to deliver useful models as are many applied economists today the ability to avoid modeling can be seen as an advantage though it should not be a surprise when such an approach delivers answers that are hard to interpret even if we accept the limitation of only being able to say something about some kind of average treatment effects when using instrumental variables designs another significant and major problem is that researchers who use these randomization based research strategies often set up problem formulations that are not at all the ones we really want answers to in order to achieve exact and precise results design becomes the main thing and as long as one can get more or less clever experiments in place they believe they can draw far reaching conclusions about both causality and the ability to generalize experimental outcomes to larger populations unfortunately this often means that this type of research has a negative bias away from interesting and important problems towards prioritizing method selection design and research planning are important but the credibility of research ultimately lies in being able to provide answers to relevant questions that both citizens and researchers want answers to focusing on finding narrow late results threatens to lead research away from the really important research questions we as social scientists want to answer believing there is only one really good evidence based method on the market and that randomization is the only way to achieve scientific validity blinds people to searching for and using other methods that in many contexts are better insisting on using only one tool often means using the wrong tool share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky the purist streak in economics 30 oct 2023 at 10 27 posted in economics comments off on the purist streak in economics so in what sense is this dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model firmly grounded in the principles of economic theory i do not want to be misunderstood friends have reminded me that much of the effort of modern macro goes into the incorporation of important deviations from the panglossian assumptions that underlie the simplistic application of the ramsey model to positive macroeconomics research focuses on the implications of wage and price stickiness gaps and asymmetries of information long term contracts imperfect competition search bargaining and other forms of strategic behavior and so on that is indeed so and it is how progress is made there has always been a purist streak in economics that wants everything to follow neatly from greed rationality and equilibrium with no ifs ands or buts most of us have felt that tug here is a theory that gives you just that and this time everything means everything macro not micro the theory is neat learnable not terribly difficult but just technical enough to feel like science robert solow yes indeed there is a purist streak in economics that wants everything to follow neatly from greed rationality and equilibrium with no ifs ands or buts that purist streak has given birth to a kind of deductivist blindness of mainstream economics something that also to a larger extent explains why it contributes to causing economic crises rather than to solving them but where does this deductivist blindness of mainstream economics come from to answer that question we have to examine the methodology of mainstream economics the insistence on constructing models showing the certainty of logical entailment has been central in the development of mainstream economics insisting on formalistic mathematical modelling has more or less forced the economist to give up on realism and substitute axiomatics for real world relevance the price paid for the illusory rigour and precision has been monumentally high this deductivist orientation is the main reason behind the difficulty that mainstream economics has in terms of understanding explaining and predicting what takes place in our societies but it has also given mainstream economics much of its discursive power at least as long as no one starts asking tough questions on the veracity of and justification for the assumptions on which the deductivist foundation is erected asking these questions is an important ingredient in a sustained critical effort to show how nonsensical the embellishing of a smorgasbord of models founded on wanting often hidden methodological foundations is the mathematical deductivist straitjacket used in mainstream economics presupposes atomistic closed systems i e something that we find very little of in the real world a world significantly at odds with an implicitly assumed logic world where deductive entailment rules the roost ultimately then the failings of modern mainstream economics have their roots in a deficient ontology the kind of formal analytical and axiomatic deductive mathematical modelling that makes up the core of mainstream economics is hard to make compatible with a real world ontology it is also the reason why so many critics find mainstream economic analysis patently and utterly unrealistic and irrelevant the empty formalism that solow points out in his critique of modern macroeconomics is still one of the main reasons behind the monumental failure of modern macroeconomics share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky räddaren i nöden 29 oct 2023 at 12 50 posted in varia comments off on räddaren i nöden regn och höstrusk ute på ön idag men vad gör det så länge man kan lyssna på programmet text och musik med eric schüldt jag har i flera år nu lyssnat på erics program varje söndag en helg utan hans tänkvärda och ofta lite melankoliska funderingar och vemodiga musik har blivit otänkbart som så ofta de senaste åren är det eric som får mig att hitta nya ljudintryck i en tid många kallar den modern då alla förväntar sig omedelbar behovstillfredsställelse här och nu njuter jag av att få gå och längta efter nästa söndags musikupplevelse och betraktelser över tillvarons mystik tack eric share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky pink floyd 28 oct 2023 at 18 44 posted in varia comments off on pink floyd share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky on universalism and the israeli palestinian conflict 28 oct 2023 at 10 00 posted in politics society comments off on on universalism and the israeli palestinian conflict share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky economic myths that just won t die 27 oct 2023 at 22 47 posted in economics comments off on economic myths that just won t die share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky goethe vs schiller 27 oct 2023 at 12 20 posted in varia 1 comment share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky how to get a nobel prize in economics talking absolute nonsense 26 oct 2023 at 21 59 posted in economics 11 comments many people would argue that in this case the inefficiency was primarily in the credit markets not the stock market that there was a credit bubble that inflated and ultimately burst eugene fama i don t even know what that means people who get credit have to get it from somewhere does a credit bubble mean that people save too much during that period i don t know what a credit bubble means i don t even know what a bubble means these words have become popular i don t think they have any meaning i guess most people would define a bubble as an extended period during which asset prices depart quite significantly from economic fundamentals eugene fama that s what i would think it is but that means that somebody must have made a lot of money betting on that if you could identify it it s easy to say prices went down it must have been a bubble after the fact i think most bubbles are twenty twenty hindsight now after the fact you always find people who said before the fact that prices are too high people are always saying that prices are too high when they turn out to be right we anoint them when they turn out to be wrong we ignore them they are typically right and wrong about half the time are you saying that bubbles can t exist eugene fama they have to be predictable phenomena i don t think any of this was particularly predictable john cassidy share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky l intelligence humaine est en déclin 25 oct 2023 at 13 48 posted in education school politics society comments off on l intelligence humaine est en déclin comme le montre ce programme il y a vraiment de nombreux signes que l intelligence humaine est en déclin ce déclin est probablement le résultat d une convergence de facteurs sociaux et culturels l une des principales raisons est la dépendance croissante à la technologie alors que les avancées technologiques ont indéniablement amélioré notre qualité de vie elles ont également créé une génération de personnes de plus en plus dépendantes de leurs smartphones et ordinateurs cette dépendance a réduit notre capacité à résoudre des problèmes de manière indépendante à retenir des informations essentielles et à interagir avec le monde qui nous entoure un autre facteur contribuant à la baisse de l intelligence humaine est le déclin de l éducation de nombreuses régions du monde font face à des coupes budgétaires dans le secteur de l éducation ce qui entraîne une qualité d enseignement inférieure en conséquence de nombreuses personnes ne sont pas en mesure d acquérir les compétences cognitives et les connaissances dont elles ont besoin pour fonctionner au mieux dans la société si nous voulons améliorer notre faculté intellectuelle il est impératif de reconsidérer notre relation à la technologie et à l éducation share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky natural natural experiments 24 oct 2023 at 11 14 posted in statistics econometrics comments off on natural natural experiments evidently however the potential for the strictly natural natural experimental approach which relies exclusively on natural events as instruments is constrained by the small number of random events provided by nature and by the fact that most outcomes of interest are the result of many factors associated with preferences technologies and markets and the prospect of the discovery of new and useful natural events is limited it is clear that the number of natural instruments will never be sufficient to eliminate the necessity of imposing auxiliary assumptions or of obtaining supplementary empirical information relevant to the assumptions needed for identification measurement without theory however is not significantly more valuable than it ever was before the use of natural natural experiments mark rosenzweig kenneth wolpin rosenzweig and wolpin discuss several serious issues with studies based on natural natural experiments one noticeable and significant problem they do not address however is that researchers using these randomization based research strategies consistently formulate problems to achieve exact and precise results that are not the ones we truly want answers to the design becomes the main focus and as long as one can set up more or less clever experiments they believe they can draw far reaching conclusions about both causality and generalizing experimental outcomes to larger populations unfortunately this often leads to a shift in this type of research away from interesting and important issues towards prioritizing method choices while design and research planning are important the credibility of research ultimately comes down to being able to provide answers to relevant questions that both citizens and researchers want to know share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky alter friedhof 24 oct 2023 at 10 36 posted in varia comments off on alter friedhof for a churchyard romantic like yours truly a visit to alter friedhof prenzlauer allee is of course a must when in berlin share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky berlin 19 oct 2023 at 19 05 posted in varia comments off on berlin touring again guest appearance in berlin when there yours truly always visits walter benjamin platz close to kurfürstendamm between leibnizstraße and wielandstraße interesting architecture and a couple of excellent restaurants and cafés regular blogging to be resumed next week share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky mainstream economics a methodological strait jacket 19 oct 2023 at 12 07 posted in economics comments off on mainstream economics a methodological strait jacket jamie morgan to a member of the public it must seem weird that it is possible to state as you do such fundamental criticism of an entire field of study the perplexing issue from a third party point of view is how do we reconcile good intention or at...
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