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description= 10 posts published by moctavio during July 2013;
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the, venezuela, to, in, blog, blogs, by, venezuelans, venezuelan, government, you, devil, excrement, archive, for, july, 2013, unknown, feed, subscribe, via, email, categories, all, miguel, octavio, blogroll, recent, posts, archives, pages, meta, stats, pdvsa, creates, privatization, like, program, increase, oil, production, websites, hacked, silent, nico, por, que, no, te, callas, tales, from, upside, down, country, doubles, interest, payments, petrocaribe, housing, minister, breaks, law, man, who, taped, him, detained, when, thought, had, seen, enough, corruption, and, distortions, is, going, well, maduro, possible, hugo, moment, fading, fast, let, sicad, foreign, exchange, games, begin, are, trapped, their, own, inconsistencies,
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ortions in venezuela july 21 2013 while chavismo madurismo continues to solidly embrace controls creating ever more complicated systems rules and regulations there is daily evidence that the whole thing has become a rubesque like system whereby the system has become absolutely ineffective due to corruption and arbitrage despite the daily evidence the revolution presses forward with its brainless creation of economic rules and foreign exchange systems where common sense and logic are completely absent two items caught my attention in the last two days that absolutely make you wonder if these guys even try to use their brains when designing the whole thing 1 the head of the venezuelan association of airlines said yesterday today s el nacional page 6 that during the last three months occupancy in international flights has not exceeded 40 despite the fact that flights are completely sold out and all tickets have been booked do you know what this means easy with the large arbitrage between the official rate bs 6 3 per us and the black rate about four times more the times of oligarco burguesito are back the only way that occupancy in flights can be that low is that organized mafias are gathering cedulas buying tickets and obtaining cadivi dollars for travel say you buy a ticket to go to spain with iberia i just checked and on october 1st i could go for bs 14 857 round trip if you buy the ticket get us 3000 for the trip in your credit card and 400 euros in cash that is about us 3 520 which at the black rate is something like 116 000 bolivars subtract the bs 14 857 and without bothering to travel you have made a tidy profit of around bs 100 000 why bother to even travel and use the airline ticket that cost money after all give the credit card to someone and have them use it to get cash or whatever or organize twenty or thirty people like that and you yourself could go and take care of it paying everyone one of them a fee for the use of their cedula in your endeavours and clearly someone is doing that right now in massive numbers if 60 of the seats flew empty before the summer season began 2 you would think that scams and guisos would take a while to develop under the new sicad rules well corruption is so entrenched that in the first sicad auction corruption was already present in full force indeed 127 companies of the health sector were assigned foreign currency this health sector was defined as only medical equipment and parts if these 127 companies were assigned the average amount of 166 000 dollars per request we are talking about us 21 million for all of them the problem is that the venezuelan association of distributors of medical odontological laboratory and similar equipment reported that of its 137 members not one was approved a single dollar el nacional yesterday yes not one of the only association that groups distributors of medical equipment and the like so the mafias were in place even before the auction took place and they were generously rewarded except they went overboard and somebody noticed the government said it will investigate hold off giving out the dollars and the like but pardon me for being skeptical if the mafias are so entrenched i am sure the same people that decided to award the dollars to what are mostly phantom companies will carry out the investigation and nothing will happen so all that complicated system checks and balances and in the end the dollars went to the wrong hands i guess in chavista madurista la la land it is time to create even more controls posted in venezuela 23 comments venezuela is going well july 17 2013 after announcing the results of the first modified sicad auction where the government sold some us 180 million dollars at an exchange rate probably close to three two times the official rate and around half one third of the unmentionable black rate minister of finance nelosn merentes announced two more upcoming auctions and said the country is going well yeap as the government formalized another devaluation introducing a second official exchange rate or third for that matter the rate is secret the minister said things are going well as inflation has soared and shortages are still out there even more boldly the man who has so often predicted single digit inflation and economic growth and who has no clue as to what an econometric model is said confidently that inflation will go down in the second half of the year and growth will be stronger he even challenged those that do know economics to wait until the year is over to see who is right unfortunately dr in math merentes does not even appear to understand that growth in the next two quarters will not be compared to the last quarter but that economists have this quirk that it is measured with respect to the same quarter a year ago given that the economy has likely shrank for the first six months of the year it will have to make up the loss and then show a gain for the third and fourth quarters to show growth something that looks difficult right now additionally given that the growth last year was driven by government spending and that spending is down by double digits so far in 2013 it seems unlikely that growth will be positive for all of 2013 but the real trouble is inflation as recently as october merentes was questioning predictions of 28 in 2013 and inflation is up 25 in the first six months of 2013 alone in fact a month after saying that he said it was feasible to achieve 14 16 inflation in 2013 jeez nelson you will be off by 100 at least in that econometric prediction at least as a mathematician you should be able to understand how bad that is but the real problem is that the government has built in continued inflation into the system with its policies by holding back price increases there is a guarantee that there will be shortages and later more inflation as goods get scarce in fact inflation for controlled goods was 21 in the first six months of the year another sign the whole system does not work reportedly vice president arreaza has presented maduro with a list of 10 items whose prices need to be increased which will do little to slow down inflation neither will the fact that what used to be imported at the sitme rate of bs 5 3 will now be purchased at bs 16 or so yes some of that stuff was being bought at the black rate but the truth is that much of that stuff like auto parts was simply not being imported as importers were not willing to buy parts at the black rate with the scant dollars they could find in that market meanwhile the black rate is likely to slow down for a while until people realize that they will get little from sicad individuals only got half of what they asked for in today s sicad auction and despite estimates that there were requests for us 800 million the government mysteriously sold us 20 million less than expected in the auction but merentes was not alone this week in making statements that make you wonder if these people are brain dead or what maduro said even before the auction that the new sicad auction had generated great positive expectations somehow it seems par for the course that this government accomplishes so little that it boasts about expectations that simply can t and will not be satisfied and central bank director armando leon he of the bolivar fuerte creation dared say that inflation in the second half will be significantly lower and that this new auction does not imply a devaluation sure armando and the bolivar fuerte is your most important creation and then of course is the price nazi eduardo saman who not only said that the institution he runs is a repressive institution of the state which reveals a very definite state of mind and attitude towards the citizens of venezuela which seems to have permeated the government most institutions of the government are run as repressive institutions with little regard and concern for the people but saman s crowning glory was to suggest that if a company is losing money because of price controls it should just go borrow money from a bank which will help capitalize the company mr saman clearly has no understanding of how a productive system or the economy works he seems to believe loans are free banks are charitable institutions and has no understanding about how a loan really works or what it is and so it goes venezuelan is going well in the mind of the guy in charge of the minsitry of finance maybe he should go and ask the opinion of his friend at merril lynch who is talking about a deep reecession speaking of ml whatever happened to merentes visit to new york in the first half of july i guess since things are going so well he no longer needs it posted in uncategorized 25 comments maduro s possible hugo moment fading fast july 16 2013 i am glad i was away when the whole snowden affair blew up as i think it is mostly irrelevant to the problems of venezuela my take on the reaction of the venezuelan government is simple maduro finally found something that could become his only hugo moment since being elected by giving snowden asylum and doing his own in your face insult to the us but the moment may not come to pass and maduro s offer will likely be forgotten as the possibility of snowden coming to venezuela seems to be fading fast i think nico did not think well of the consequences no not geopolitical consequences but how damaging for him snowden could become if he came to venezuela but in the end it points to maduro s rambling policies where he acts tough one day light the next clearly under pressure from all sides he visits only accepted countries ignoring hugo s circle of terror friends since he became president he names pragmatists to finance but leaves the dinosaur in planning he removes chavez brother from corpoelec but brings him back shortly elsewhere he brings back ultra radical saman the creator of the socialist areperas but more importantly an absolute ignoramus on economic matters he sends jaua to have his disneyland photo moment with john kerry only to destroy the picture by offering asylum to snowden the asylum may never happen but any improvement in us venezuela relations got thrown overboard maduro has been anything but consistent in his brief 90 days as president but he did need his smell like sulfur hugo moment and snowden could have been it except that if snowden ever came to venezuela it would end up biting maduro back for sure to begin with the international press would descend in venezuela and dozens of articles about how the venezuelan government spies on its citizens would appear in the international press even a deaf and blind reporter from the militant would learn about these cases and spread the word making people wonder why the hell snowden chose venezuela for but in the end it would be snowden who would become the problem for the government the same international press would descend on him and ask him about his opinions about venezuela snowden would hold press conferences and be on live international tv from caracas and eventually the venezuelan government will simply say nyet to all his political activities in favor of human rights the lowest of rights on the chavista totem pole of values i am sure the shallow mr snowden shallow because the countries he chose are anything but icons of good behavior in spying and repressing their citizens would not like to be silenced and the problems would begin for snowden and for the current venezuelan government but other problems would surface even earlier such as the fact that mr snowden s life in venezuela is likely to be anything but the golden asylum he may be imagining from not speaking the language to crime to shortages snowden is unlikely to find a place or a society where he would fit in even if the venezuelan government were to offer to pay him to hack his way around the world he would likely tire of living in venezuela which would force him to look for an alternative but once here no other country is likely to want to touch snowden with a ten foot pole so he would have to either stay put or go back to the states and once in the states he could talk freely about the wonderful world of venezuelan human rights violations thus maduro s hugo moment was not well thought out and now looks unlikely to happen meanwhile important matters continue unresolved as his enemies from within carefully wait for the right moment to act and snowden is still in russia and seems further and further away from ever eating an arepa posted in uncategorized venezuela 26 comments let the sicad foreign exchange games begin in venezuela july 14 2013 as you may have guessed i have been away biking in a very nice area of the world which together with sightseeing and resting from the exercise gave me little time to post which does not mean that i did not follow the news despite spotty internet coverage in many places and i am very happy that i avoided the snowden drama which i will post about at some point but consider it to be mostly a distraction what i found more interesting was that after only three months the incompetent venezuelan government finally will start selling dollars into a new and they claim improved sicad system it took only three months to create rules limitations allocations quotas and the like attempting to include almost everyone i have been somewhat surprised at the positive reaction to this new system by many analysts suggesting is a step forward and that the unmentionable rate will somehow go down but i am not impressed to begin with the government will sell us 200 million every two weeks in this new revitalized sicad system this comes out to about us 20 million per day well below the us 40 million that used to be regularly sold per day in the old sitme system the difference is that now there are some quotas and individuals will be allowed to participate and more bolivars in the system sitme was good about oiling the system in providing dollars to importers and in emergencies but i really don t think it eased the pressure in the black market very much as if this were not enough there will be more participants and i think this is the weak point of the system with the control the government will exert on the rate at which dollars are sold the arbitrage between the sicad rate and the black rate will be large and more and more individuals will register to participate and that number much like what happened in the bolivar dollar bond system will balloon in time as individuals try to take advantage of the system if a family of four for example plans to travel having each member participate creates a subsidy for the trip that can even be partially funded selling dollars in the other market the rules reportedly will be different for each auction which simply creates too much guesswork for importers who really need the foreign currency to function in the first auction margarita and paraguana will receive a quota if this is not permanent it may not do the job desired but more imp...
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