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description= 15 posts published by Lars Syll during March 2025;
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regularities obtain they do it as a rule only because we engineered them for that purpose outside man made nomological machines they are rare or even non existent unfortunately that also makes most of the achievements of econometrics as most of the contemporary endeavours of economic theoretical modelling rather useless references freedman david 2010 statistical models and causal inference cambridge cambridge university press haavelmo trygve 1943 statistical testing of business cycle theories the review of economics and statistics 25 13 18 1944 the probability approach in econometrics supplement to econometrica 12 1 115 hicks john 1979 causality in economics london basil blackwell keynes john maynard 1951 1926 essays in biography london rupert hart davis 1971 89 the collected writings of john maynard keynes vol i xxx d e moggridge e a g robinson eds london macmillan share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky riksbanken tänker till 27 mar 2025 at 18 26 posted in economics 1 comment wooh vem hade trott det verkligen imponerande årets nobelpristagare i ekonomi share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky the fall of democracy in the united states 25 mar 2025 at 18 41 posted in politics society comments off on the fall of democracy in the united states share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky da doo ron ron 24 mar 2025 at 10 43 posted in varia comments off on da doo ron ron phil spector s wall of sound masterpiece and that 1960s choreography i just love it share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky applying the benveniste scheinkman theorem student stuff 23 mar 2025 at 15 40 posted in economics comments off on applying the benveniste scheinkman theorem student stuff share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky dynamic and static interpretations of regression coefficients 23 mar 2025 at 15 34 posted in statistics econometrics comments off on dynamic and static interpretations of regression coefficients when econometric and statistical textbooks present simple and multiple regression analysis for cross sectional data they often do it with regressions like regress test score y on study hours x and get the result y constant slope coefficient x error term when speaking of increases or decreases in x in these interpretations we have to remember that it is a question of cross sectional data and increases which means that we are referring to increases in the value of a variable from one unit in the population to another unit in the same population strictly it is only admissible to give slope coefficients a dynamic interpretation when dealing with time series regression for cross sectional data we should stick to static interpretations and look upon slope coefficients as giving information about what we can expect to happen to the value of the dependent variable when there is a change in the independent variable from one unit to another although it is tempting to say that a change in the independent variable leads to a change in the dependent variable we should resist that temptation students who put a lot of study hours into their daily routine on average achieve higher scores on their tests than other students who study for fewer hours but the regressions made do not analyse what happens to individual students as they increase or decrease their study hours why is this important it is important most of all because interpreting the regression coefficients wrong may give a totally wrong causal view of what is going on in your data a positive relation between test scores and study hours in a cross sectional regression does not mean that you as an individual student should expect to get higher test scores by increasing study time share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky peinliche mmt kritik 22 mar 2025 at 00 02 posted in economics comments off on peinliche mmt kritik wie in den letzten jahren mehr als deutlich geworden ist scheint es offensichtlich dass die meisten mainstream ökonomen glauben die modern monetary theory sei etwas neues das sich einige wilde heterodoxe wirtschaftsexzentriker ausgedacht haben das sagt tatsächlich sehr viel über das völlige unwissen dieser modernen mainstream ökonomen wie summers rogoff und krugman bezüglich der geschichte ihrer eigenen disziplin aus neu exzentriker wenn man einen der begründer der neoklassischen ökonomie knut wicksell liest und sich anschaut was er 1898 in geldzins und güterpreise über reine kreditsysteme schrieb löst sich diese illusion schnell auf was die modern monetary theory mmt im grunde tut ist mehr oder weniger das was wicksell vor über hundert jahren zu tun versuchte der unterschied besteht darin dass die reine kreditalwirtschaft heute eine realität ist und nicht nur eine theoretische kuriosität mmt beschreibt ein fiat währungssystem unter dem fast jedes land der welt operiert in der heutigen zeit basieren gesetzliche währungen vollständig auf fiat währungen haben keinen intrinsischen wert mehr wie gold oder silber was ihnen ihren wert verleiht ist im wesentlichen die einfache tatsache dass man seine steuern mit ihnen bezahlen muss das ermöglicht es den regierungen auch eine art monopolgeschäft zu betreiben bei dem sie niemals das geld ausgehen kann erst recht wird das staatsausgaben zum eigentlichen motor der wirtschaft während steuern und kreditaufnahme zu nachgelagerten maßnahmen degradiert werden wenn wir eine depression haben ist die lösung also nicht sparpolitik sondern ausgaben haushaltsdefizite sind kein großes problem da fiatgeld bedeutet dass regierungen jederzeit neues geld schaffen können in der welt der mainstream ökonomen brauchen wir keine fiskalpolitik außer wenn die zinssätze ihre untere grenze zlb erreichen in normalen zeiten reicht die geldpolitik aus die zentralbanken passen einfach den zinssatz an um vollbeschäftigung ohne inflation zu erreichen wenn die regierungen in einer solchen situation größere haushaltsdefizite eingehen verdrängen diese tendenziell private ausgaben und die zinssätze steigen was mainstream ökonomen dabei im sinn haben ist letztlich nichts anderes als eine variante von says gesetz das im wesentlichen besagt dass ersparnisse gleich investitionen sein müssen und dass wenn der staat seine investitionen erhöht dann die privaten investitionen zurückgehen müssen crowding out als buchhalterische identität ist an diesem gesetz natürlich nichts auszusetzen aber aus ökonomischer sicht ist es völlig uninteressant was passiert wenn geplante ersparnisse und investitionen voneinander abweichen ist dass es letztlich zu anpassungen der wirtschaftsleistung kommt das bip verändert sich wodurch ersparnisse und investitionen ex post wieder ins gleichgewicht gebracht werden und das nota bene sagt überhaupt nichts über den erfolg oder misserfolg fiskalpolitischer maßnahmen aus es stimmt dass die mmt den traditionellen phillips kurven zusammenhang zwischen inflation und arbeitslosigkeit ablehnt und traditionelle maßnahmen zur erreichung der vollbeschäftigung weniger positiv bewertet anstelle einer allgemeinen erhöhung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen nachfrage bevorzugt sie in der regel eher strukturelle und gezielte nachfrageimpulse die ein geringeres risiko erhöhter inflation mit sich bringen bei vollbeschäftigung kann deficit spending oft inflationär wirken aber das sollte nicht der entscheidende faktor für die fiskalische position der regierung sein die höhe der staatsverschuldung und der haushaltsdefizite ist wie bereits abba lerner in den 1940er jahren mit seiner theorie der funktionalen finanzpolitik argumentierte kein politisches ziel an sich die höhe von schulden und defiziten ergibt sich vielmehr daraus dass wir unsere grundlegenden wirtschaftlichen ziele erreichen wollen vollbeschäftigung und preisstabilität dass regierungen so viel geld ausgeben können wie sie wollen ist eine tatsache das bedeutet jedoch nicht dass die mmt sagt sie sollten es tun das ist eine entscheidung die von der politik getroffen werden muss kein mmt befürworter bestreitet dass eine übermäßige staatliche ausgabenpolitik inflationär sein kann was jedoch infrage gestellt wird ist die annahme dass staatliche defizite zwangsläufig inflation verursachen share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky optimal control theory student stuff 21 mar 2025 at 18 34 posted in economics comments off on optimal control theory student stuff share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky trump uncertainty and chaos 21 mar 2025 at 11 01 posted in politics society 1 comment uncertainty and chaos are the final factors in trump s operation the winners broadly will be financial speculators with fast fingers and especially inside knowledge those in position to move quickly in and out of stocks bonds and real estate and perhaps even in and out of the dollar from a base in crypto could be the biggest winners the apex financial and tech predators already at trump s feeding trough could end up in control of the whole economy which may be their goal well no surprise it s an oligarch s world is it not and what do the oligarchs want like all feudal lords they want untrammeled power and insecure obedient serfs and for this the vast social services operation that is the us federal government must be cut back along with the professional classes who form the modern core of the democratic party the words of andrew mellon as recalled by herbert hoover come to mind liquidate labor liquidate stocks liquidate the farmers liquidate real estate purge the rottenness out of the system enterprising people will pick up the wrecks from less competent people the problem the oligarchs face and possibly do not understand is that they cannot do this any more now than then without bringing the economy to ruin from which recovery will be possible only with the competent government they are now working to destroy james k galbraith share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky nr 24 21 mar 2025 at 09 22 posted in varia comments off on nr 24 mycket sevärd och gripande film om den norska krigshjälten gunnar sønsteby share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky schuldenbremse bye bye 18 mar 2025 at 16 58 posted in economics politics society comments off on schuldenbremse bye bye the german parliament today after heated debate approved the much discussed debt package worth hundreds of billions of euros for defence and infrastructure with the necessary two thirds majority the parliament in berlin passed a constitutional amendment allowing defence and security expenditures to be exempt from the schuldenbremse debt brake the previously strict debt rules for the federal states will also be relaxed better late than never keynes is alive and kicking share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky next page recent posts arbetslöshetssiffran som styr den ekonomiska politiken 50 år efter studenten personal finding the late student stuff love s secret stein s paradox a lesson on precision and unbiasedness audioholic summer research ett välförtjänt bottenrekord arbetslösheten inte statsskulden är problemet how credible is the credibility revolution in econometrics randomness and representativeness are not 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