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description= 7 posts published by moctavio during May 2015;
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cious arepa for this experiment we can quote the half a year inflation of 129 16 i could do a fit to the slope but really it is only five points we dont not need such sophistication i guess i will have to continue being a glutton and eat those delicious arepas in the name of data collection and science every time i go there will have to bike more too posted in uncategorized 16 comments parallel rate soars whose fault is it may 24 2015 venezuelans love a conspiracy theory sometimes it seems it is easier to embrace such theories than to analyze what is going on least of all look at numbers to seek a possible explanation this week was a clear example of that as the parallel exchange rate soared the most common explanation was that a webpage was manipulating the price of the dollar for some obscure or maybe not so obscure purpose that webpage claims to obtain its price from whatever its happening at the border of venezuela with colombia these are real transactions the exchange houses in cucuta open in the morning and begin trying to make a market adjusting the price according to what they see i have no clue as to the volume traded in cucuta every day but the border has a very active trade and there has to be a way of going back and forth between bolívars and us or pesos this is what that webpage supposedly reports of course that particular webpage has a lot of influence as it seems to be the one most people check but let s look at the variables that affect the exchange rate and what s been happening in the last few months at the origin of everything is oil the venezuelan oil basket determines how any dollars come in every day to the country whether you believe the country s production is x or y variations in the price of oil affect the cash flow the government sees and that determines everything when the government had savings and cash lots of cash flow it would divert some money to the parallel exchange whether before it became illegal in 2010 after that or in the last few months the problem is that savings are gone the government owes everyone money and it has so little foreign currency that in march it created a new and newfangled foreign exchange system with three official rates bs 6 3 per us sicad and simadi and the second one sicad has yet to have an auction it is only used as a reference according to the last value it had prior to the new system being announced that s how little money the government has this is what the venezuelan oil basket has done in the last six months as you can see the price hit bottom at 38 82 per barrel the week of january 31st and has recovered to us 56 28 per barrel by now however most oil sold by venezuelan is sold on a 90 day basis so that the government is receiving today is that of 90 days ago or roughly february 20th which was around us 47 per barrel thus cash flow has improved in the last three weeks in theory the minimum was around april 30th however the lower cash flow has taken a huge toll on the savings international reserves reserves began the year at us 22 billion grew to over us 24 billion in march and since then they have dropped to barely us 17 billion that s a 22 7 drop since january thanks to the dominican republic buying out its petrocaribe debt and down 29 16 since the beginning of march not a pretty picture at that level liquid international reserves are likely around us 500 million at most which is peanuts for a country the size of venezuela and with shortages all over the place and the government owing money to everyone a brazilian delegation of food exporters came to venezuela a week ago they left empty handed there is simply little money for the parallel market thus as demand soars companies have to function supply collapses guess what happens then moreover some of the supply disappeared as the jailing of a couple of venezuelans in the us has apparently scared some suppliers of the market if goods are scarce in venezuela then the greenback seems to be the the toughest good to find and if you think that the dollar market price is artificial and there is little volume in that market let me show you a graph of another market the caracas stock exchange volume in this market is very low some 50k 100k per day why because there are very few shares to be had well this week as the parallel exchange rate soared 31 the caracas stock index soared even more jumping up 42 for the same reason simply put there are very few stocks sold and people were looking to protect their savings just like those seeking to buy foreign currency are trying to either protect their savings or keep their enterprises going and you can t blame any webpage for the fact that stocks soared even more close to 25 more than the actual rate of exchange and there is some real trading in that market the point is that what is going on is simply the effect of scarcity the government has fewer dollars at a time that it has run down its savings and to make matters even worse the venezuelan central bank keeps printing bolívars like there is no tomorrow as shown by this plot of how m2 the money supply has increased since last year as you can see as the price of oil collapsed fewer dollars the money supply the number of bolívars in circulation which can buy dollars almost doubled and the savings are practically gone this means that there are almost twice as many bolívars chasing those very scarce dollars local stocks and or goods simply a recipe for disaster so don t blame a webpage or a conspiracy blame reality posted in uncategorized 20 comments a priceless wsj headline but does it mean much may 19 2015 while there is no question that seeing godgiven s face on the front of the wsj s website was extremely satisfying and priceless particularly to those of us that have spent over a decade trying to unmask the hoodlums in the chavista regime we are unsure that this headline will have the immediate meaning that some believe it has i mean it is not as if maduro got his copy of the wsj this morning saw the headline and said oh my god how could he do this i mean this is old news how many members of the venezuelan military close to this person have been declared drug kingpins in the past including his buddy carvajal who happens to be maduro s buddy too and this is a press report not even an indictment can we get one please people have many theories surrounding this but i buy few of them the first and obvious one is that the secretary of state s emssary tom shannon asked maduro to get rid of godgiven showing him proof of his activities and the us would normalize relations and thus the leak really is maduro so strong that he can get rid of the most powerful former military in government just like that i am not so sure after all maduro comes from the civilian ideological side of chavismo while godgiven represents the connection to active military how many of his classmates hold important positions in government maduro s connection to them is tenuous at best in fact if anything this could be the spark for increased political instability in venezuela if godgiven sees his political base undermined he may decide to go for the whole enchilada and this would bode badly for everything democracy stability human rights and the future of venezuela but my bet is that this will be turned into a venezuela vs the us battle another excuse to blame the problems of the country on obama and his right wing government the evil empire trying to get rid of the expanding ideological influence of madurismo and simply another battle in the economic war against the extremely successful economies policies of chavismo and other stupidities like that in any case we will know shortly who is right on this posted in uncategorized 52 comments maracay crime thriving in venezuela s military enclave may 14 2015 this week the venezuelan military and the police essentially took over the city of maracay attempting to restore order in the crime ridden san vicente barrio while most of the news has centered on the origins of this confrontation what i find the most interesting is that this happens to be ocurring in maracay of all places you see the city of maracay located about 130 km south west of caracas is as much of a military enclave as there exists in venezuela look up for example wikipedia and you will find the following list of interesting facts about maracay after history and economy and transport comes military because the military plays such an essential role in the life of the city and under military you will find the following description maracay is the cradle of aviation chavez led his coup from there the 4th armored division is there and venezuela s gun production military company is there despite this huge military presence the military has been unable to protect itself from the widespread crime of the country in fact maracay is among the top cities in crime per inhabitant and the crooks seem to be armed with grenades and weapons obtained from the many military facilities in the city as an example when some gang members were killed by the police the gangs retaliated by simultaneously attacking three units of the investigative police with grenades which led to the raid on barrio san vicente which leads to my main point venezuela s military is so incapable so dysfunctional that it can not even protect its own turf you would think that a city dominated by military life would be the safest as high ranking officers worry about their wives and kids instead their inability to coordinate and execute their lack of training and their corruption has made their own turf among the worst in the country in fact the grenades and weapons come from the same factory the military runs it is just big business to sneak out and sell a grenade here a box of bullets there and a gun somewhere else that s how the gangs armed themselves but you can t blame it all on incompetent military this is in fact part of the chávez legacy chávez wanted these now so called gangs to be armed in order to create paramilitary groups that would support him and his government when and if the time came except that these groups took a life of their own became independent enterprises while the military found it hard to go against the big boss and looked the other way while they also enriched themselves so now over ten years late the revolution tries to stop the monster it created reportedly there were three dead and 800 wounded in the raid and they keep running them trying to isolate the gangs but the big problem is that those detained will suffer the same system of injustice that has been allowed in venezuela during the last 16 years jails have triple their capacity most prisoners remain jailed without sentencing and guess who runs the jails the same gangs that run san vicente kill cops at will and fight the military so the military is now being bitten by its own incompetence indolence and ability to ignore even the problems that surround them when and if this nightmare ends one has to wonder if the military simply has to be eliminated they seem as dysfunctional as the chavista government and incapable of contributing to restoring order and organization in venezuelan society posted in uncategorized 18 comments godgiven traps his enemies with him in venezuela may 13 2015 the idea must have occurred to godgiven c that fateful weekend when general hugo carvajal was suddenly jailed in aruba and barely escaped deportation to the us at that point it must have been clear to godgiven no more miami andorra panama and the like in the future for him except for places he would not like to visit like china cuba iran and russia he was now trapped in the hellish country the former hugo created and he helped destroy not even his family could safely visit the empire or even neighboring countries as you never knew what trick could obama play against them with all his influence well he must have thought if i am trapped in venezuela and feel so claustrophobic about it i will make sure my enemies are too because he felt truly awful what would he spend all his money on if he was trapped in venezuela thus why jail them why not sue the few remaining media outlets in the country and have the judge ban their owners directors legal counsel from leaving the country and thus subject them to the same unfair punishment the gringos imposed on him and so he did the first chance he got a really preposterous case he sued for defamation everyone of importance at el nacional la patilla and tal cual and a friendly judge complied his wishes and 22 members of the respective boards including miguel henrique otero teodoro petkoff again and alberto ravell who is not in venezuela are now prohibited from leaving the country the case is so preposterous that all these media outlets did was simply to reproduce verbatim what spanish newspaper were saying about godgiven this not only violates freedom of speech but even international treaties exempt such reproductions of news items from legal liability except for the source but it gets even worse according to venezuelan law the court had to notify each of the defendants something that has yet to be done and under no circumstance can the judge rule that the defendants were prohibited from leaving the country or be a flight risk if she had not even talked to them or knew in detail anything about them other than they were on the board of these media outlets and to add insult to injury the defamation case got really speedy consideration and resolution in a country where the average prisoner has not seen a judge in the first few months after its detention and most spend two years without sentence of course their name is not godviven c a pseudonym used to protect the author of this blog oh his power his manipualtion of justice the intent is clear to intimidate if the simple reproduction of news items published outside or inside the country by any media outlet can be a justification to sue you for defamation and block you from leaving the country the few media outlets that maintain some form of independence will be silenced even more and reporters media owners directors will all be trapped in venezuela and with godgiven to boot just think none of them can take a jaunt to aruba to get some shampoo soap or even harina pan let alone enjoy their wealth the worst part is that at some point they may even be trapped for hours with godgiven in court it is hard to think of worst punishment for them posted in uncategorized 10 comments watching venezuelan dysfunctionality from afar may 10 2015 as you may have guessed i have been away still am the picture above taken by me a couple of days ago in northern italy depicts what i did for the last week after celebrating an important birthday in spain the previous one so i have been mostly out of touch with venezuela if that is ever possible more so when you are traveling with a group of venezuelans and all we hear simply reflects that venezuela has become a very dysf...
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