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description= 15 posts published by Lars Syll during March 2015;
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bör repareras omedelbart det är hjärtat i marknadsekonomin en finanskris kan inte hävas förrän kreditgivningen åter fungerar andra stimulansåtgärder blir till föga hjälp så länge som bankerna är förlamade det andra rådet säger att de så kallade automatiska stabilisatorerna i den offentliga sektorns budget bör få verka i största möjliga utsträckning vid varje kris skjuter budgetunderskottet av sig självt i höjden som följd av växande offentliga utgifter för högre arbetslöshet och sjunkande skatteintäkter när konsumtion och sysselsättning krymper detta andra råd kan synas enkelt och självklart men ingen svensk finansminister har öppet och helhjärtat vågat anamma principen att lämna över budgetspakarna till den finanspolitiska autopiloten minst av allt vid djup kris ofta har man gjort tvärtom dragit i den budgetpolitiska nödbromsen och stramat åt och därmed förvärrat det ekonomiska läget vår finanskris i början av 1990 talet demonstrerade den kritiska dynamiken på ett slående sätt då utmålades de automatiskt växande budgetunderskotten som tecken på ansvarslös och slapp finanspolitik inte som tecken på väl fungerande stötdämpare experter från imf på besök i stockholm bidrog till den felaktiga tolkningen genom att rekommendera finanspolitisk åtstramning mitt under brinnande kris förhoppningsvis finns det en bättre förståelse i dag även imf har svängt ångrat sin budgetsyn från 1990 talet och går nu ut med det allmänna rådet att inte strama åt budgetunderskotten måste få växa raskt under de närmaste krisåren för att hålla världsekonomin liksom vår ekonomi på rätt köl lars jonung hoppas nu att ordföranden i finanspolitiska rådet erinrar sig vad professorn skrev postmodern pedagogik mumbo jumbo 26 mar 2015 at 18 47 posted in theory of science methodology 1 comment den antiintellektuella avgrunden är nära när den postmoderna sanningsrelativismen infekterar det offentliga samtalet på alla nivåer inklusive den akademiska världen i sverige tycks den pedagogiska disciplinen vara värst smittad en docent i pedagogik fick för några år sedan skolverkets uppgift att skriva en rapport om fysikundervisningen i den svenska skolan samt komma med förslag på hur den skulle attrahera fler flickor ur rapporten föreställningen om det vetenskapliga tänkandets självklara överhöghet rimmar illa med jämställdhets och demokratiidealen vissa sätt att tänka och resonera premieras mera än andra i naturvetenskapliga sammanhang om man inte uppmärksammar detta riskerar man att göra missvisande bedömningar till exempel genom att oreflekterat utgå från att ett vetenskapligt tänkande är mer rationellt och därför borde ersätta ett vardagstänkande pedagogen skriver vidare i rapporten en genusmedveten och genuskänslig fysik förutsätter en relationell infallsvinkel på fysiken samt att en hel del av det traditionella vetenskapliga kunskapsinnehållet i fysiken plockas bort det vetenskapliga kunskapsinnehållet i fysiken ska alltså plockas bort för att underlätta för flickor inte nog med att detta är en förfärlig kunskapssyn det är dessutom kränkande att betrakta flickor som oförmögna eller sämre på att ta till sig kunskap i fysik författaren till rapporten heter moira von wright och är numera professor i pedagogik och rektor för södertörns högskola när nu en sådan kunskapsteoretisk grundsyn slagit rot i våra högre lärosäten har vi ett problem martin ingvar christer sturmark åsa wikforss efter att ha läst i ett av de senaste numren av pedagogisk forskning i sverige 2 3 2014 där författaren till artikeln en pedagogisk relation mellan människa och häst på väg mot en pedagogisk filosofisk utforskning av mellanrummet ger följande intressanta programförklaring är man dock föga förvånad över sakernas tillstånd inom svensk pedagogisk vetenskap med en posthumanistisk ansats belyser och reflekterar jag över hur både människa och häst överskrider sina varanden och hur det öppnar upp ett mellanrum med dimensioner av subjektivitet kroppslighet och ömsesidighet och så säger man att pedagogikämnet är i kris undrar varför why paul krugman is no real keynesian 26 mar 2015 at 11 03 posted in economics 10 comments keynes s insights have enormous practical importance according to lance taylor and duncan foley who jointly received the leontief prize for advancing the frontiers of economic thought at tufts university s global development and environment institute on monday but isn t keynes now mainstream no say foley and taylor the mainstream still sees economies as inherently moving to an optimal equilibrium it still says demand causes short run fluctuations but only supply factors such as the capital stock and technology can affect long run growth even paul krugman a self described keynesian nobel laureate and new york times columnist writes in the 2012 edition of his textbook in the long run the economy is self correcting shocks to aggregate demand affect aggregate output in the short run but not in the long run krugman does point to one exception if interest rates are nearly zero as during the financial crisis markets lose restorative force but taylor asks what s the logic keynes saw capitalism s general state as allowing almost arbitrary unemployment hence his general theory full employment was a lucky exception to taylor calling full employment the general state and allowing one unlucky exception turns keynes upside down and look where this confusion has brought us he adds take the current eurozone disaster for two decades the european union bureaucracy in brussels the german council of economic experts and a chorus of others branded germany the sick man of europe as suffering from a sclerotic supply side rigid labor unions impediments to layoffs a burdensome welfare state but german labor costs to produce output sank steadily and germany generated huge trade surpluses hardly signs of a sclerotic supply side yet growth has barely averaged 1 percent a year since 2000 jonathan schlefer i can t but agree with taylor and foley here to a large degree one does get the impression that krugman thinks he is a keynesian because he is a stout believer in john hicks is lm interpretation of keynes in a post on his blog self proclaimed proud neoclassicist paul krugman has argued that keynesian macroeconomics more than anything else made economics the model oriented field it has become in krugman s eyes keynes was a pretty klutzy modeler and it was only thanks to samuelson s famous 45 degree diagram and hicks s is lm that things got into place although admitting that economists have a tendency to use excessive math and equate hard math with quality he still vehemently defends and always have the mathematization of economics i ve seen quite a lot of what economics without math and models looks like and it s not good however being a student of hyman minsky yours truly very much doubt that is lm is an adequate reflection of the width and depth of keynes s insights on the workings of modern market economies almost nothing in the post general theory writings of keynes suggests him considering hicks s is lm anywhere near a faithful rendering of his thought in keynes s canonical statement of the essence of his theory in the famous 1937 quarterly journal of economics article there is nothing to even suggest that keynes would have thought the existence of a keynes hicks is lm theory anything but pure nonsense john hicks the man who invented is lm in his 1937 econometrica review of keynes general theory mr keynes and the classics a suggested interpretation returned to it in an article in 1980 is lm an explanation in journal of post keynesian economics self critically he wrote that the only way in which is lm analysis usefully survives as anything more than a classroom gadget to be superseded later on by something better is in application to a particular kind of causal analysis where the use of equilibrium methods even a drastic use of equilibrium methods is not inappropriate is lm is typically set in a current values numéraire framework that definitely downgrades the importance of expectations and uncertainty and a fortiori gives too large a role for interests as ruling the roost when it comes to investments and liquidity preferences reducing uncertainty to risk implicit in most analyses building on is lm models is nothing but hand waving according to keynes we live in a world permeated by unmeasurable uncertainty not quantifiable stochastic risk which often forces us to make decisions based on anything but rational expectations keynes rather thinks that we base our expectations on the confidence or weight we put on different events and alternatives to keynes expectations are a question of weighing probabilities by degrees of belief beliefs that often have preciously little to do with the kind of stochastic probabilistic calculations made by the rational agents as modeled by modern social sciences and often we simply do not know is lm not only ignores genuine uncertainty but also the essentially complex and cyclical character of economies and investment activities speculation endogenous money labour market conditions and the importance of income distribution most of the insights on dynamic coordination problems that made keynes write general theory are lost in the translation into the is lm framework sure new keynesian economists like krugman and their forerunners keynesian economists like paul samuelson and young john hicks certainly have contributed to making economics more mathematical and model oriented but if these math is the message modelers aren t able to show that the mechanisms or causes that they isolate and handle in their mathematically formalized macromodels are stable in the sense that they do not change when we export them to our target systems these mathematical models do only hold under ceteris paribus conditions and are consequently of limited value to our understandings explanations or predictions of real economic systems the kinds of laws and relations that modern economics has established are laws and relations about mathematically formalized entities in models that presuppose causal mechanisms being atomistic and additive when causal mechanisms operate in real world social target systems they only do it in ever changing and unstable combinations where the whole is more than a mechanical sum of parts if economic regularities obtain they do it as a rule only because we engineered them for that purpose outside man made mathematical statistical nomological machines they are rare or even non existant unfortunately that also makes most of contemporary mainstream neoclassical endeavours of mathematical economic modeling rather useless and that also goes for krugman in recent blogposts paul krugman has come back to his idea that it would be great if the fed stimulated inflationary expectations so that investments would increase i don t have any problem with this idea per se but i don t think it s of the stature that krugman seems to think but although i have written extensively on knut wicksell and consider him the greatest swedish economist ever i definitely since krugman portrays himself as sorta kinda keynesian have to question his invocation of knut wicksell for his ideas on the natural rate of interest krugman writes emphasis added start with the very simplest view of how fed policy affects the economy the fed sets short term interest rates and other things equal a lower rate leads to higher output the natural rate of interest is the rate at which output equals potential that is at which there are neither inflationary nor deflationary pressures what does this tell us first of all that there is nothing artificial or unnatural about low interest rates they re low because demand is low and the fed is responding appropriately if anything the unnatural situation is that rates are too high because they re constrained by the zero lower bound rates can t go below zero except for some minor technical bobbles because people can always just hold cash second the fed s inability to get rates as low as they should be justifies a search for policies that can fill this policy gap fiscal stimulus is one such policy unconventional monetary policies of various kinds are another actually the natural policy natural in a wicksellian sense and also the one that in terms of standard economics should produce the least distortion would be a credible commitment to higher inflation now consider what keynes himself wrote in general theory in my treatise on money i defined what purported to be a unique rate of interest which i called the natural rate of interest ¾ namely the rate of interest which in the terminology of my treatise preserved equality between the rate of saving as there defined and the rate of investment i believed this to be a development and clarification of wicksell s natural rate of interest which was according to him the rate which would preserve the stability of some not quite clearly specified price level i had however overlooked the fact that in any given society there is on this definition a different natural rate of interest for each hypothetical level of employment and similarly for every rate of interest there is a level of employment for which that rate is the natural rate in the sense that the system will be in equilibrium with that rate of interest and that level of employment thus it was a mistake to speak of the natural rate of interest or to suggest that the above definition would yield a unique value for the rate of interest irrespective of the level of employment i had not then understood that in certain conditions the system could be in equilibrium with less than full employment i am now no longer of the opinion that the wicksellian concept of a natural rate of interest which previously seemed to me a most promising idea has anything very useful or significant to contribute to our analysis it is merely the rate of interest which will preserve the status quo and in general we have no predominant interest in the status quo as such paul krugman has on his blog tried to explain why we should still use the neoclassical hobby horse aggregate supply aggregate demand model so why do as ad we do want somewhere along the way to get across the notion of the self correcting economy the notion that in the long run we may all be dead but that we also have a tendency to return to full employment via price flexibility or to put it differently you do want somehow to make clear the notion which even fairly keynesian guys like me share that money is neutral in the long run actually this is the same unsubstantiated stuff you find in all of the fairly keynesian greg mankiw s textbooks well this fairly keynesian guy is not impressed and i doubt that keynes himself would have been impressed by having his theory being characterized with catchwords like tendency to return to full employment and money is neutral in the long run as taylor and foley convincingly argue krugman is no real keynesian add...
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