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propaganda and all organizations which promote or incite racial discrimination cannot validly be avoided by invoking the rights to freedom of opinion and expression the communities concerned should be consulted and should participate in the process of elaboration of this law so we can expect to see at best a brief flurry of bland comments from the politicians assurances that they will look into it when the time is right and the whole matter being quietly forgotten posted by james annan at tuesday february 14 2006 1 comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest monday february 13 2006 the japan times on the royal pregnancy i thought i was blunt enough in my previous comment but the jt pulls no punches it its editorial some highlights no wonder the crown princess gets depressed the spectacle of the chasm between the imperial family and the 21st century has long been enough to depress anyone but then just when the princess must have thought the gap might be closing a bit given the prime minister s efforts to win the right of succession for the family s female members along comes an unexpected pregnancy to send everything back to square one it is not that the princess would not wish to congratulate her brother and sister in law prince akishino and princess kiko on their joyous news the whole nation does it is just that she must dread having to explain to her 4 year old daughter why people s joy seems to be so dependent on this new cousin being a boy whatever happened to the idea that girls are just as special just as valued as boys how do you explain why some people think being a girl is such a crippling defect it automatically disqualifies you from a job that carries no power anyway or why it would still be empowering to women for a woman to accede to a position of such bizarre powerlessness if japan was truly ready for a female emperor why is everyone so thrilled about this pregnancy television announcers all but wept breaking the news on tuesday and opponents of the prime minister s plan appear giddy with relief at the thought that a boy could yet appear and save the nation from the frightful prospect of a reigning empress who could be succeeded in turn by her own daughters some might argue that this is all a tempest in a teacup because the emperor system is purely symbolic anyway but that is exactly why it is important what better vehicle than the monarchy to set a symbolic example on social issues last week s news has set that effort back but there is still room for optimism the new baby might be a girl thus putting this crucial debate back on track here s hoping ouch posted by james annan at monday february 13 2006 3 comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest sunday february 12 2006 a week is a long time in politics 3rd february koizumi however stressed to reporters on the same day the necessity of having the bill to allow females and their descendants to ascend japan s imperial throne passed during the ongoing session saying it is better to hurry for a stable imperial succession i don t think it is good to discuss the matter too long he added and reiterated that the party will require all member lawmakers to vote for the bill 10 february prime minister junichiro koizumi indicated friday he has given up a plan to submit to the current diet session a bill to allow women to succeed to the chrysanthemum throne koizumi told reporters at his official residence we can make a decision after closely examining developments on the matter within his ruling liberal democratic party so what happened in the intervening week to cause such an abrupt u turn what happened is that we all found out that the wife of the younger crown prince is pregnant raising the hope of a male heir of course consummate politician that he is koizumi is making the natural decision to chicken out of addressing the issue performing a handbrake turn without so much as a look in the wing mirror so much for his gender equality plan obviously i m hoping the child turns out female so these old misogynists who run the country will have to face up to life in the 21st century but i can t help think that koizumi wouldn t have made this decision unless he knew that the child was indeed going to be male he will certainly look very stupid if it s yet another girl he is standing down in september anyway so it will be someone else s problem posted by james annan at sunday february 12 2006 0 comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest detection attribution and estimation this is something i ve been meaning to blog about for some time it comes up a lot in the context of the hurricane wars over at rpjnr s blog a recent comment of his provides a nice opening as you well know much of science works through hypothesis falsification across climate science the null hypothesis used to guide research has been that a human signal is not present and research is then done to falsify this hypothesis in some cases such research has been done allowing attribution of climate effects to an anthropogenic forcing this null hypothesis is chosen because of occam s razor it is a simpler explanation for what is observed he is essentially posing the question as initially one of detection can we show that the agw has had an effect and that the observations are not just the result of climate variability before moving on to attribution how much of a change can we describe as being due to this particular cause there is however an entirely different but equally valid approach that could also be used from the outset which is what is our estimate of the magnitude of the effect the critical distinction is that the null hypothesis has no particularly priviledged position in this approach this distinction between detection and estimation is related to that between a frequentist and bayesian approach to probability ruling out a null hypothesis or not at some level of significance is essentially a frequentist approach estimating the probabilities of various competing hypotheses about which we have prior beliefs but not necessarily a strong bias towards a null hypothesis is bayesian the answers that these two approaches provide may be very different in any given situation and neither is necessarily right or wrong a priori but it is surely self evident that the bayesian approach is more relevant to decision making if we have any reasonable expectation that certain policies would have particular bad effects it would be ridiculous to wait until such effects could be shown to have occurred at some arbitrary level of statistical significance that s not a point specific to climate change of course imo the ipcc slightly muddies the waters with its discussion of d a it defines attribution as roger implicitly does above as a strictly stronger statement than detection one can only attribute once the effect has already been detected i suppose they can define the term attribution in that way if they choose but it is certainly not then valid to equate this with the general estimation problem as they do further down it is trivial to create situations in which a currently undetectable effect can be reasonably estimated to be large and the converse is equally possible an easily detectable statistically significant influence may be wholly irrelevant in practical terms i suspect that this forms a large part of the difference in presentation between various parties in the hurricane debate the evidence may not yet rule out the null hypothesis of no effect but some people estimate that agw is likely to have a substantial effect even if the ill defined error bars on their estimate do not exclude zero in principle exactly the same evidence could support both of these conclusions although i don t personally know enough about hurricanes to make a definitive statement in that particular case it is amusing to see roger very much at the sharp end of policy relevant work promoting the scientifically pure but practically less useful detection frequentist approach rather than the more appropriate estimation bayesian angle it s not surprising although perhaps a little disappointing that the ipcc explicitly endorses that view but by placing the null hypothesis in a priviledged position from which it can only be dislodged by a mountain of observational evidence this approach provides a strong inbuilt bias for the status quo which cannot be justified on any rational decision theoretic grounds posted by james annan at sunday february 12 2006 6 comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest saturday february 11 2006 petfood so as you may have seen in the news japan s whale meat mountain is getting turned into petfood this shop is specifically advertising whale jerky for pets that s a direct translation of the red text across this image on the left the black writing says it s our recommendation i previously suggested that putting the unwanted whale meat in school dinners would be crass i m obviously hopelessly naive posted by james annan at saturday february 11 2006 3 comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest friday february 10 2006 food glorious food two contrasting food books caught my eye recently a couple of weeks ago the guardian featured a roadkill recipe book in which the author describes such delicacies as hedgehog spaghetti carbonara i m not sure i would go that far myself but i did once pick up a freshly killed pheasant in fact it was so fresh it was not even quite dead when we got to it we d seen a puff of feathers as the car in front disappeared round a corner sadly we were only spending a weekend at my parents house and dad insisted correctly that it had to hang for a week by which time we had gone home so we didn t even get to taste it the jt takes a look at a more conventional approach which has brought long life and health to japan i m not sure there is any particular magic ingredient it s common sense that a population which eats modest portions of fresh fish and vegetables and generally walks and cycles moderate distances rather than sitting in a car is going to be healthy the only real vices are too much salt and pickles the latter of which leads to an abnormally high rate of stomach cancer it has to be said that having to chow down a bowl of plain steamed white rice with every meal leaves me if not exactly losing the will to live certainly losing the will to eat so it s not surprising that people are so thin it s rare i see someone here who would be considered overweight in the uk on our first visit to japan jules and i each lost about half a stone in a week we now keep our weight up with a weekend diet of baked potatoes and a regular circuit of several really good restaurants mostly western style if you count a proper indian curry as such round here our canteen is really excellent actually but there s a limit to how much rice and pickles i can face in a week posted by james annan at friday february 10 2006 0 comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest tuesday february 07 2006 last chance saloon after huge strings of comments most of which can be found here here and here i m still not sure that i ve made much progress in explaining how bayesian probability works and how it differs from the frequentist view i ll have one last go before i give up a man picks an apple out of a barrel and gives it to me i weigh it on a set of moderately accurate scales which give a reading of 105 5g as previously this uncertainty is assumed to be gaussian with the quoted magnitude being 1 standard deviation what is the probability that the mass of the apple is less than 100g less than 105g to a frequentist these questions are simply ill posed and no answer is possible we don t know the distribution of apple masses in the barrel from which this one was sampled to a bayesian there are an infinite range of possible priors that could in principle be used to describe the initial uncertainty in the apple s mass one obvious choices would be to take it as a uniform distribution over a wide range eg 0 200g in that case the posterior pdf for the apple s mass is the gaussian distribution n 105 5 and the two probabilities requested are 16 and 50 respectively another plausible prior would be to use our prior knowledge of the apple being a common medium sized fruit and reckon that the overall distribution of apple masses is roughly gaussian of the form n 125 20 in that case the posterior pdf of the individual apple is marginally different from before at n 106 2 4 85 and the two probabilities are 10 and 40 for the apple being less than 100g and 105g respectively for each of those answers of course there is also a perfectly straightforward frequentist interpretation consider sampling apples from the u 0 200 distribution weighing each and of those whose weight is given at 105g the distribution has the n 105 5 shape and similarly for the gaussian prior so what s the difference the only difference is someone with a bayesian approach to probability will be prepared to actually pick a prior which might be one of the above or something else and give an answer someone who claims to take a frequentist approach to probability cannot do so and indeed if a frequentist experiment is actually performed in which apples are repeatedly sampled from the barrel and weighed on scales with 5g random error then the resulting distribution of those which are measured to be 105g will not coincide exactly with the bayesian s answer unless he got very lucky and actually guessed the distribution of apples in the barrel correctly note however that in my two examples above the answers are not really so different from each other unless the prior is something really pathological like each apple in the barrel is actually less than 100g then an apple which measures 105 5g is likely to be greater than 100g likely being the ipcc definition of about 60 90 so even though the bayesian won t be exactly correct he ll probably be near enough right for his answer to be a useful basis for decision making and note that even if you decide you need a better answer and try to take a more accurate measurement you still can t get round the fact that you always need to choose a prior which will affect the answer if only marginally in the real world you might need to make a decision shall i buy the apple or reject it as potentially undersized with the available data and no opportunity to improve your observation without a bayesian approach to probability you don t have the tools to address that question at all here endeth the lesson posted by james annan at tuesday february 07 2006 19 comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest monday february 06 2006 how to measure the height of a building with the help of a barometer a small twist on an old tale it s 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