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description= 10 posts published by moctavio during February 2011;
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the, devil, in, venezuela, for, blog, all, blogs, by, gdp, excrement, archive, february, 2011, unknown, feed, subscribe, to, via, email, categories, miguel, octavio, blogroll, venezuelans, recent, posts, archives, pages, meta, stats, griping, about, students, hunger, strike, despite, oil, windfall, per, capita, is, only, up, over, last, twelve, years, mystery, of, giordani, 18, debt, ratio, thank, you, from, does, not, live, here, anymore, hugo, tell, me, who, your, friends, are, brisas, de, oriente, when, anarchy, and, chaos, become, routine, chavez, becomes, blameless, on, wasteful, gasoline, use, his, solution, rationing, bolivarian, bond, arbitrage, dummies, gets, stunned, at, supermarket,
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the (405), and (148), that (96), you (74), #venezuela (57), this (53), was (53), for (52), are (51), not (49), but (43), will (40), have (39), bond (38), has (37), from (34), with (33), pdvsa (31), 2011 (30), february (29), government (29), they (29), there (27), years (24), all (23), debt (23), bonds (22), about (21), can (20), one (20), would (20), which (20), may (19), then (19), billion (19), 2010 (18), get (18), when (17), what (17), some (17), more (17), now (16), chavez (16), november (16), january (16), march (16), two (16), price (16), many (16), 2022 (16), country (16), very (16), august (15), october (15), april (15), 2009 (15), 2014 (15), time (15), had (15), dollars (15), risk (15), pay (15), coupon (15), last (15), comments (14), devil (14), his (14), september (14), december (14), june (14), july (14), per (14), only (14), these (14), could (14), because (14), 2003 (13), 2006 (13), 2015 (13), how (13), even (13), year (13), much (13), around (13), people (13), were (13), gdp (13), 2004 (12), 2005 (12), 2007 (12), 2008 (12), 2012 (12), 2013 (12), back (12), them (12), well (12), who (12), its (12), value (12), simply (12), why (11), high (11), down (11), fact (11), over (11), same (11), gasoline (11), venezuelan (10), bank (10), your (10), posted (10), just (10), also (10), don (10), been (10), things (10), out (10), than (10), where (10), other (9), 2016 (9), work (9), right (9), oil (9), arbitrage (9), while (9), goes (9), face (9), money (9), issued (9), 100 (9), thus (9), since (9), take (9), brisas (9), oriente (9), blog (8), tell (8), day (8), bolivarian (8), inflation (8), markets (8), buy (8), did (8), students (8), give (7), uncategorized (7), new (7), good (7), lots (7), still (7), almost (7), first (7), know (7), way (7), after (7), few (7), trade (7), like (7), each (7), companies (7), post (7), week (7), little (7), barrio (7), giordani (7), excrement (6), another (6), 2002 (6), find (6), such (6), going (6), sell (6), world (6), either 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clear (4), company (4), having (4), order (4), began (4), trading (4), yield (4), three (4), actually (4), use (4), stop (4), someone (4), reasons (4), hugo (4), next (4), food (4), rather (4), simple (4), crime (4), live (4), minister (4), total (4), quite (4), thank (4), hunger (4), website (3), name (3), log (3), wordpress (3), account (3), control (3), something (3), blogs (3), venezuelans (3), excremento (3), del (3), diablo (3), miguel (3), orchids (3), opposition (3), revolution (3), shortages (3), paying (3), shelf (3), getting (3), made (3), subject (3), everything (3), market (3), look (3), brand (3), today (3), looked (3), worse (3), ready (3), weeks (3), topic (3), office (3), went (3), gets (3), crazy (3), come (3), set (3), end (3), investors (3), done (3), telling (3), part (3), months (3), abroad (3), without (3), different (3), lot (3), their (3), expect (3), announced (3), petrobono (3), less (3), complicated (3), built (3), large (3), international (3), given (3), 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Text of the page (random words):
owed from the chinese is not debt huh imagine you borrow money from someone and agree that you will pay for it working for them it may not be debt but you are a slave or not same here pdvsa has to ship oil to pay for the us 20 billion we venezuelans own pdvsa and we have to pump oil to pay that we are the slaves it s pure debt but let s agree with jorge for a while venezuela owes only us 57 22 billion except that pdvsa besides its bonds has liabilities in long term debt of about us 4 billion more which is owed to banks we are ignoring employee liabilities just straight debt thus the total debt is us 61 22 billion or 26 of gdp but wait is the true exchange rate bs 4 3 per us or is it the sitme rate of bs 5 3 per us if we use the sitme rate gdp goes down to us 189 billion so that debt to gdp goes up to a debt gdp ratio of 44 and yes if you let the bs float the equilibrium rate would be more like bs 6 5 per us thus gdp would drop this time to us 113 billion which would mean debt gdp ratio would go up to 33 but if you add the 20 billion chinese loan then it goes up to 71 7 which is quite high very high in fact the economist has taken notice and god forbid the world bank rules against venezuelan in arbitration from all this the only thing that is clear is that giordani s value is simply wrong in fact for a man that likes to talk about equations deputes are apparently scared of them which are simply algebraic sums of factors like the gini index throwing that mysterious 18 6 number out is simply irresponsible he is simply ignorant or a big liar take your pick what is clear is that the man in charge is either full of hot air or has no clue neither of which is encouraging for those of us concerned about the future of the country posted in venezuela 63 comments thank you all from the devil february 24 2011 i am still here it is not that i will blog less it has simply been a complicated week as i moved i have many stories to tell from what was going on in venezuela this week but energy levels are low after full days of many errands and lots of work but i could not pass up the opportunity to thank everyone my post explaining that i was leaving arose more from the need to be fair to all of you in disclosing my departure rather than from explaining what or why i was doing it but i really did not expect the outpouring of good wishes compliments and cariño that i felt i admit that i was touched overwhelmed and humbled by all of you i consider my blog a labor of love towards my country and i can see that it has generated lots of equally lovable feelings from my readers thank you i also wanted to tell in that post a little bit more about who i am i had tried unsuccessfully to hide who i was as much as possible over the years some details got out slowly but with my departure i felt i could tell you a little more about myself i am still surprised by how many people thought when i meet them that the devil was young no such luck lived outside venezuela now i do and was an economist only an amateur one discussing with various friends the strong reaction to my post there were over hundred comments and some blog posts by friends daniel alek kepler instapundit took note and even nadox in codigo venezuela there seems to be two reasons for the emotional reaction coming from two different poles those that have already left identify themselves with the difficulties and conflicts of my decision those that are considering leaving wonder if they should leave too or whether they will one day have to do the same i don t know if the above interpretation is correct but there clearly was a strong resonance with my farewell post i liked daniel s title the good devil moves out of venezuela i also loved the title of naldoxx s post even the devil is leaving venezuela he called me a sort of handyman of life which i take as a very nice compliment and even if some are worried by the fact that he published my picture don t worry it is a 29 years old picture all my hair is white by now and i don t do low temperature experiments any more you can be sure i will make the best of my departure despite everything life is good and beautiful and i have many many plans and that includes to keep writing and interpreting venezuela as well as i can thank you again posted in venezuela 29 comments the devil does not live here anymore february 21 2011 thirty three years ago i came back to venezuela fresh from a ph d in physics from well known us university it was an exciting time venezuela was moving forward we all felt we were ready to take the country to the next stage of development you could get research funding and lots of people were either leaving to study abroad or coming back with degrees in many fields the first few years were exciting things went well i came back to venezuela to work in a lab which already had good equipment and i was able to get more got grants in venezuela and abroad my career took off i also helped start an engineering research institute then came el viernes negro black friday when the country s economy had its first large devaluation in decades this was february 18th 1983 within months the venezuelan currency had lost almost 60 of its value things got more difficult it was a sign of things to come things began to oscillate a lot there were good years and bad years not much new funding i was working in a field that required ever more sophisticated equipment lots of running expenses it was hard to stay at the edge but i gave it my best try for quite a while then politics got in the way technical employees where i worked began demanding the same perks as researchers without being willing to assume all of the duties and responsibilities then there was a tough strike and i decided i had to either leave the country to do physics or switch fields staying in the country where my extended family resided was important to me i stayed i was then consulting for a small local broker on how to construct indexes for markets they had actually started by offering me a job i decided to give it a try see how things developed maybe there would be improvements at the institute where i had worked since i was 18 years old it was downhill at that place from there by now the revolution has insured that what was once one of the top scientific institutes in latin america has slid down into an irreversible path to complete mediocrity the new job went well there were ups and downs but the ups were always exhilarating i learned so much new stuff along the way we did lots of things all of them quite well and with professionalism then last year chavez decided to blame someone for his economic mismanagement and targeted one of the companies of the group that i worked for it was the equivalent of our farm being illegally taken over by the government it was time to go thus this weekend i moved with my family to another country i will go back periodically for work reasons but my main residence will be elsewhere there were two main reasons for this tough decision one that came from the mind not the heart crime and the absence of the rule of law i stared at both of these in the face and it is something i don t wish on anyone you feel like you are not playing on a level field if the crooks don t get you the other crooks will and you have no way to defend yourself there are no instances no appeals you have no rights time to leave and so it goes it s called self preservation the blog will continue i started this eight and a half years ago and will continue to document the absurdity of it all as long as it continues i think quico alex daniel and i have played an important role over the years in telling the story of chavez outside the country that job is mostly done but as blogs have lost some sex appeal there are lots of stories still to tell about what is going in venezuela which can not be tweeted or facebooked clearly not being on the ground will deny me some of the insights one gets from being there but i will go back regularly and hope to compensate partially with it i hope to sustain the quality if i don t let me know in private of course so the devil will continue to be around i won many battles in my dear venezuela during the last three decades but i lost the overall war time to move on with some sorrow but in the end semper diabolus vincit posted in uncategorized venezuela 146 comments hugo tell me who your friends are february 20 2011 from la patilla this magnificent collage of hugo and his lybian buddy as the saying goes dime con quien andas y te dire quien eres tell me who your friends are and i will tell you who you are posted in venezuela 51 comments brisas de oriente when anarchy and chaos become routine in venezuela february 19 2011 yesterday there was an eight hour protest near los teques right outside caracas neighbors of the brisas de oriente barrio a barrio that sits on the ridge of a hill right next to the panamerican highway near km 21 right before los teques blocked the road for eight hours this wasn t even huge news they are part of the routine anarchic and chaotic life these days in venezuela while an indifferent and indolent government claims everything is fine these people were mad that the police and the national guard did not even dare to stop them from blocking the traffic for such a long time i estimate this affected some 100 000 people who simply could not move on the highway during that time or chose to stay home rather than try to find a way to get down to caracas to work or go to school to most venezuelans the name brisas de oriente means very little but many people that live in or near caracas have actually been at the entrance of that barrio the barrio grew out of a food stop on the highway first came the food stop then a news stand then someone built a very simple house almost but not quite a rancho behind it and before you knew it brisas de oriente was born by now brisas de oriente is a long road along the ridge and down from which other roads a minority of them unpaved branch out in between the dense concentration of rudimentary houses the further you go out the closer they are to a rancho or shack while the closer to the road you are the closer to the now famous food store that goes by the name of los golfeados de los teques the more developed the houses are the people that live in brisas de oriente are poor but they most likely have one or two people that work at home kids that go to school and even the university a well constructed house in the barrio costs around five to ten thousand us dollars rentals are about 50 dollars a month for years residents of brisas de oriente have known that you have to arrive before 10 pm and leave after 6 am to go to work in between the malandros hoodlums take control of the barrio and either rob you outright or charge a fee just to be allowed to go by the spot where they are hanging out so you better have an alternate place to sleep if you don t want to get mugged when you get home late or have to leave early lately however crime has taken a turn for the worse from no murders five years ago the number of homicides has picked up at a fast pace the crooks have gotten younger they are now mostly underage and armed with loaded guns while their style has changed this week two residents of brisas de oriente were murdered in two separate incidents a total of sixteen have been killed so far this year this is what led to the protests when the protests began the police did little some of them even live there and are victims themselves all part of an anarchy that just grows by the day and so do the protests and to the media it becomes almost normal and simply boring ask the minister of the interior and he will likely spew out some made up statistics about how he has reduced crime in the last six months despite the fact that each year the number of murders beats the record from the prior and government media does not show the protest and the non government media minimizes it too for fear of retribution from the government and there is no policy response from the government they would not know where to start and chaos and anarchy just grow much like crime around the country probably at the same rate you may wonder how i know about brisas de oriente for almost 20 years i lived not two kilometers away from it had breakfast at los golfeados daily and got to know and even work with a number of its residents the barrio was heavily pro chavez until 2006 and by now according to my friends it has become mostly opposition except they could care little about politics now they only worry about survival posted in uncategorized 37 comments chavez becomes blameless on wasteful gasoline use in venezuela his solution rationing february 15 2011 yesterday i sincerely could not believe the dictator when he started talking and pontificating about the problem with cheap gasoline in venezuela you are filling your tank with the cheapest gasoline in the world said the president speaking with his scolding tone as if saying you bad guys have been doing this behind my back then as if his inauguration was just last week rather than twelve years ago chavez told us in his pedagogical tone that the government subsidizes 90 of the price of gasoline a topic we have covered many times wow when did he find this out because for twelve years hugo chavez has done very little to change the price of gasoline in fact he forced former president rafael caldera in 1997 not to increase the price of gasoline to take advantage of that populist stance in 2000 his cronies at pdvsa cancelled the natural gas car program for vehicles which was rapidly expanding and they have now tried to revive without much success surprise and it was chavez himself in alo presidente the fact that he had not built major roads because that would only attract more people to cities and it was also chavez who sent oil and gasoline to iran london petrocaribe cuba argentina central america and uruguay the latter a country with a much higher standard of living than venezuela but rather than eliminate these subsidies and or increase the prce of gasoline chavez solution is very simple gasoline rationing the government will force us to consume in 2011 100 000 barrels less a day than in 2010 what s next rationing sand because after all we have had water and electricity rationing food shortages and now gasoline rationing all once abundant in venezuela but it is the paradox of venezuela chavez the revolution and gasoline after twelve years of inaction he puts his angelic and pedagogic face and blames us for his incompetence even managing to scold us we should feel guilty but not him like the cartoon above chavez is well meaning generous and smart it is the venezuelan people who are simply very dumb to continue to put up with chavez charade the yo no fui parade of his own incompetence posted in uncategorized venezuela 79 comments bolivarian bond arbitrage for dummies february 13 2011 i the question i h...
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