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2022 russian invasion of ukraine the term sellers inflation was coined during this period to describe the effect of corporate profits as a possible cause of inflation price inelasticity can contribute to inflation when firms consolidate tending to support monopoly or monopsony conditions anywhere along the supply chain for goods or services when this occurs firms can provide greater shareholder value by taking a larger proportion of profits than by investing in providing greater volumes of their outputs 108 109 shortly after initial energy price shocks caused by the russian invasion of ukraine had subsided oil companies found that supply chain constrictions already exacerbated by the ongoing global pandemic supported price inelasticity i e they began lowering prices to match the price of oil when it fell much more slowly than they had increased their prices when costs rose 110 the quantity theory of money has long been popular with libertarian conservative critics of the federal reserve during the covid pandemic and its immediate aftermath the m2 money supply increased at the fastest rate in decades leading some to link the growth to the 2021 2023 inflation surge fed chairman jerome powell said in december 2021 that the once strong link between the money supply and inflation ended about 40 years ago due to financial innovations and deregulation previous fed chairs ben bernanke and alan greenspan had previously concurred with this position the broadest measure of money supply m2 increased about 45 from 2010 through 2015 far faster than gdp growth yet the inflation rate declined during that period the opposite of what monetarism would have predicted a lower velocity of money than was historically the case 111 was also cited for a diminished effect of growth in the money supply on inflation 112 113 surveys of economists conducted by the university of chicago booth school of business in november 2021 and january 2022 showed that more economists agreed than disagreed with many expressing uncertainty that while contributing to rising prices in the united states the global supply chain crisis would not contribute to a higher long term inflation rate above the federal reserve s inflation target and was not the main driver of the inflation surge but that the combined effect of the stimulative fiscal and monetary policies being implemented in the united states posed a risk of prolonged higher inflation 114 115 heterodox views edit additionally there are theories about inflation accepted by economists outside of the mainstream the austrian school stresses that inflation is not uniform over all assets goods and services inflation depends on differences in markets and on where newly created money and credit enter the economy ludwig von mises said that inflation should refer to an increase in the quantity of money that is not offset by a corresponding increase in the need for money and that price inflation will necessarily follow always leaving a poorer nation 116 117 118 government debt edit government debt obligates the government to increase taxes reduce spending or the government may resort to inflationary finance of the deficit 119 120 another direction which translates government debt to inflation is the motivation of governments to erode nominal debts by increasing inflation 119 120 as a result elevated debt heightens the risk of inflationary pressures in both the short and long run by boosting aggregate demand shaping inflation expectations crowding out private investment and raising concerns about fiscal dominance 120 it was found that in the short run a permanent 1 percent of gdp increase in the primary deficit leads after five years to inflationary pressures equivalent to a 300 1 250 loss in household purchasing power per household in 2024 dollars 120 effects of inflation edit general effect edit restaurant increasing prices by 1 00 due to inflation inflation is the decrease in the purchasing power of a currency that is when the general level of prices rise each monetary unit can buy fewer goods and services in aggregate the effect of inflation differs on different sectors of the economy with some sectors being adversely affected while others benefitting for example with inflation those segments in society which own physical assets such as property stock etc benefit from the price value of their holdings going up when those who seek to acquire them will need to pay more for them their ability to do so will depend on the degree to which their income is fixed for example increases in payments to workers and pensioners often lag behind inflation and for some people income is fixed also individuals or institutions with cash assets will experience a decline in the purchasing power of the cash increases in the price level inflation erode the real value of money the functional currency and other items with an underlying monetary nature debtors who have debts with a fixed nominal rate of interest will see a reduction in the real interest rate as the inflation rate rises the real interest on a loan is the nominal rate minus the inflation rate the formula r n i approximates the correct answer as long as both the nominal interest rate and the inflation rate are small the correct equation is r n i where r n and i are expressed as ratios e g 1 2 for 20 0 8 for 20 as an example when the inflation rate is 3 a loan with a nominal interest rate of 5 would have a real interest rate of approximately 2 in fact it s 1 94 any unexpected increase in the inflation rate would decrease the real interest rate banks and other lenders adjust for this inflation risk either by including an inflation risk premium to fixed interest rate loans or lending at an adjustable rate negative edit inflation is illustrated by the contrast between what r 100 could buy in 2010 and in 2022 observed by lula during a meeting with women in brasilândia high or unpredictable inflation rates are regarded as harmful to an overall economy they add inefficiencies in the market and make it difficult for companies to budget or plan long term inflation can act as a drag on productivity as companies are forced to shift resources away from products and services to focus on profit and losses from currency inflation 56 uncertainty about the future purchasing power of money discourages investment and saving 121 inflation hurts asset prices such as stock performance in the short run as it erodes non energy corporates profit margins and leads to central banks policy tightening measures 122 inflation can also impose hidden tax increases for instance inflated earnings push taxpayers into higher income tax rates unless the tax brackets are indexed to inflation with high inflation purchasing power is redistributed from those on fixed nominal incomes such as some pensioners whose pensions are not indexed to the price level towards those with variable incomes whose earnings may better keep pace with the inflation 56 this redistribution of purchasing power will also occur between international trading partners where fixed exchange rates are imposed higher inflation in one economy than another will cause the first economy s exports to become more expensive and affect the balance of trade there can also be negative effects to trade from an increased instability in currency exchange prices caused by unpredictable inflation hoarding people buy durable and or non perishable commodities and other goods as stores of wealth to avoid the losses expected from the declining purchasing power of money creating shortages of the hoarded goods social unrest and revolts inflation can lead to massive demonstrations and revolutions thomas sargent showed how the huge public debt hoarded by louis xvi stimulated the french revolution 123 after the revolution inflation replaced debt as a tool for financing the debt 124 125 the post revolution hyperinflation is considered as one of the reason for the rise of napoleon 126 127 128 likewise the german hyperinflation is considered to be one of the reason for the rise of the nazi party 129 130 inflation and in particular food inflation is considered one of the main reasons that caused the 2010 2011 tunisian revolution 131 and the 2011 egyptian revolution 132 according to many observers including robert zoellick 133 president of the world bank tunisian president zine el abidine ben ali was ousted egyptian president hosni mubarak was also ousted after only 18 days of demonstrations and protests soon spread in many countries of north africa and middle east the high inflation in iran especially of food is considered as one of the main reasons for the 2025 2026 mass protests in iran 134 135 136 hyperinflation if inflation becomes too high it can cause people to severely curtail their use of the currency leading to an acceleration in the inflation rate high and accelerating inflation grossly interferes with the normal workings of the economy hurting its ability to supply goods hyperinflation can lead people to abandon the use of the country s currency in favour of external currencies dollarization as has been reported to have occurred in north korea 137 allocative efficiency a change in the supply or demand for a good will normally cause its relative price to change signaling the buyers and sellers that they should re allocate resources in response to the new market conditions but when prices are constantly changing due to inflation price changes due to genuine relative price signals are difficult to distinguish from price changes due to general inflation so agents are slow to respond to them the result is a loss of allocative efficiency shoe leather cost high inflation increases the opportunity cost of holding cash balances and can induce people to hold a greater portion of their assets in interest paying accounts however since cash is still needed to carry out transactions this means that more trips to the bank are necessary to make withdrawals proverbially wearing out the shoe leather with each trip menu cost with high inflation firms must change their prices often to keep up with economy wide changes but often changing prices is itself a costly activity whether explicitly as with the need to print new menus or implicitly as with the extra time and effort needed to change prices constantly tax inflation serves as a hidden tax on currency holdings 138 139 positive edit labour market adjustments nominal wages are slow to adjust downward this can lead to prolonged disequilibrium and high unemployment in the labor market since inflation allows real wages to fall even if nominal wages are kept constant moderate inflation enables labor markets to reach equilibrium faster 140 room to maneuver the primary tools for controlling the money supply are the ability to set the discount rate the rate at which banks can borrow from the central bank and open market operations which are the central bank s interventions into the bonds market with the aim of affecting the nominal interest rate if an economy finds itself in a recession with already low or even zero nominal interest rates then the bank cannot cut these rates further since negative nominal interest rates are impossible to stimulate the economy this situation is known as a liquidity trap mundell tobin effect according to the mundell tobin effect an increase in inflation leads to an increase in capital investment which leads to an increase in growth 141 the nobel laureate robert mundell noted that moderate inflation would induce savers to substitute lending for some money holding as a means to finance future spending that substitution would cause market clearing real interest rates to fall 142 the lower real rate of interest would induce more borrowing to finance investment in a similar vein nobel laureate james tobin noted that such inflation would cause businesses to substitute investment in physical capital plant equipment and inventories for money balances in their asset portfolios that substitution would mean choosing the making of investments with lower rates of real return the rates of return are lower because the investments with higher rates of return were already being made before 143 the two related effects are known as the mundell tobin effect unless the economy is already overinvesting according to models of economic growth theory that extra investment resulting from the effect would be seen as positive instability with deflation economist s c tsiang noted that once substantial deflation is expected two important effects will appear both a result of money holding substituting for lending as a vehicle for saving 144 the first was that continually falling prices and the resulting incentive to hoard money will cause instability resulting from the likely increasing fear while money hoards grow in value that the value of those hoards are at risk as people realize that a movement to trade those money hoards for real goods and assets will quickly drive those prices up any movement to spend those hoards once started would become a tremendous avalanche which could rampage for a long time before it would spend itself 145 thus a regime of long term deflation is likely to be interrupted by periodic spikes of rapid inflation and consequent real economic disruptions the second effect noted by tsiang is that when savers have substituted money holding for lending on financial markets the role of those markets in channeling savings into investment is undermined with nominal interest rates driven to zero or near zero from the competition with a high return money asset there would be no price mechanism in whatever is left of those markets with financial markets effectively euthanized the remaining goods and physical asset prices would move in perverse directions for example an increased desire to save could not push interest rates further down and thereby stimulate investment but would instead cause additional money hoarding driving consumer prices further down and making investment in consumer goods production thereby less attractive moderate inflation once its expectation is incorporated into nominal interest rates would give those interest rates room to go both up and down in response to shifting investment opportunities or savers preferences and thus allow financial markets to function in a more normal fashion cost of living allowance edit see also cost of living the real purchasing power of fixed payments is eroded by inflation unless they are inflation adjusted to keep their real values constant in many countries employment contracts pension benefits and government entitlements such as social security are tied to a cost of living index typically to the consumer price index 146 a cost of living adjustment cola adjusts salaries based on changes in a cost of living index 147 it does not control inflation but rather seeks to mitigate the consequences of inflation for those on fixed incomes 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