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description= 15 posts published by Lars Syll during March 2026;
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to be of a rather fallible kind if the real world is fuzzy vague and indeterminate then why should our models be built upon a desire to describe it as precise and predictable even if there always has to be a trade off between theory internal validity and external validity we must ask ourselves if our models are truly relevant human logic must supplant the classical formal logic of deductivism if we wish to say anything interesting about the real world we inhabit logic is a marvellous tool in mathematics and axiomatic deductivist systems but a poor guide for action in real world systems where concepts and entities lack clear boundaries and continually interact and overlap in this world we are better served by a methodology that acknowledges that the more we know the more we know we do not know mathematics and logic cannot establish the truth value of facts never have never will share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky neoliberal economics a work of absurd fiction 24 mar 2026 at 12 12 posted in economics comments off on neoliberal economics a work of absurd fiction rigorous and precise economic models cannot be considered anything else than unsubstantiated conjectures as long as they aren t supported by evidence from outside the theory or model to my knowledge no in any way decisive empirical evidence has been presented no matter how precise and rigorous the analysis and no matter how hard one tries to cast the argument in modern mathematical form these models do not push economic science forward one single millimetre if they do not stand the acid test of relevance to the target no matter how clear precise rigorous or certain the inferences delivered inside these models are they do not say anything about real world economies proving things rigorously in a model is at most a starting point for doing an interesting and relevant economic analysis forgetting to supply export warrants to the real world makes the analysis an empty exercise in formalism without real scientific value the kind of knowledge we seek in science differs from what we look for in fiction building fictional models that we all know are false not merely in the sense that they idealise or abstract all models do but in the sense that no amount of corrections amendments or successive approximations will ever make them true of the real world phenomena they aim to describe cannot be the right way to proceed in science although such model assumptions often of a mathematical kind are necessary for tractability they are far from harmless since they usually cannot be relaxed what drives them is their exact necessary form without which the sought after results would never be obtained if this kind of economic modelling as argued by some economic methodologists gives us the same kind of knowledge as we get in ordinary fiction well then surely we should seriously reconsider what we are doing letting tractability rather than reason decide what assumptions we make in our theories and models is not what we need if we want to build a realist and relevant economic science mainstream economists think there is a gain from the mathematical style of modelling in its capacity to offer some kind of structure around which to organise discussions to me that sounds more like religious theoretical methodological dogma where one paradigm rules in divine hegemony that s not progress that s the death of economics as a science showing that something is possible in a possible world doesn t give us a justified license to infer that it is also possible in the real world the great gatsby is a wonderful novel but if you truly want to learn about what is going on in the world of finance i would recommend reading minsky or keynes and directly confronting real world finance the assumptions and descriptions we use in our modelling have to be true or at least harmlessly false and give a sufficiently detailed characterisation of the mechanisms and forces at work models in mainstream economics do nothing of the kind our aspirations have to be more far reaching than just constructing coherent and credible models about possible worlds we want to understand and explain difference making in the real world and not just in some made up fantasy world science has to be something more than just more or less realistic story telling or explanatory fictionalism you have to provide decisive empirical evidence that what you can infer in your model also helps us to uncover what actually goes on in the real world if you fail to support your models in that way you come up with nothing that holds as an explanation of what goes on in the world in which we live postulating representative agents equipped with rational expectations may help mainstream neoliberal economists derive sought after results like equilibrium stability and downward sloping demand curves but telling us that something is possible in a patently artificial fictional world inhabited by representative agents equipped with rational expectations is not enough showing us that something possibly can happen in a model world is not enough to explain what actually happens in the real world share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky habermas im unabgeschlossenen dialog mit adorno 23 mar 2026 at 22 00 posted in politics society 1 comment dass die kritische theorie nicht irgendeine sondern die in frankfurt entstandene nur im ständigen hin und her zwischen kant und hegel fortzuführen sei wussten beide vom ersten moment ihrer begegnung an ihr pakt lag darin begründet dass sie sich über die zentralstellung dieser philosophischen konstellation einig waren beide teilten von beginn an auch die überzeugung dass ohne eine einbeziehung des marxschen denkens die spannung zwischen kant und hegel für die gegenwart nicht hinreichend fruchtbar zu machen wäre uneinig war und blieb man sich untereinander allein über die rolle die nietzsche für die kritische theorie spielen sollte während adorno glaubte ein element genealogischen denkens in seine vernunftkritik einbeziehen zu müssen war dies für habermas der eine schritt zu weit der das risiko einer wiederkehr irrationalen gedankenguts mit sich bringen würde wir werden habermas nicht mehr vom gegenteil überzeugen können sein tod bedeutet das ende des fiktiven dialogs den er zeitlebens mit adorno seinem einzigen lehrer geführt hat darin besteht die geistesgeschichtliche tragik seines ablebens für die kritische theorie man stünde so hat habermas am grab von adorno gesagt mit dessen tod philosophisch plötzlich vollkommen nackt dar wie viel mehr gründe haben wir das heute von uns zu behaupten die wir doch an den zielen einer kritischen theorie im frankfurter geist festhalten wollen axel honneth jürgen habermas war zweifellos der prominenteste vertreter der zweiten generation der frankfurter schule als nachfolger von max horkheimer und theodor w adorno doch das verhältnis ist weitaus komplizierter habermas hat das erbe des instituts sowohl angetreten als auch grundlegend neu ausgerichtet der zentrale streitpunkt liegt im projekt der kritischen theorie selbst die erste generation insbesondere adorno und horkheimer in ihrer dialektik der aufklärung entfaltete eine düstere nazu totalisierende kritik der vernunft sie argumentierten dass das versprechen der aufklärung freiheit zu bringen in eine neue form der herrschaft umgeschlagen sei kulminierend in der instrumentellen vernunft einer rationalität die ausschließlich auf effizienz und kontrolle zielt und die sie sowohl im faschismus als auch in der modernen kulturindustrie verwirklicht sahen dies ließ kaum raum für hoffnung oder emanzipation habermas zeigte entscheidend auf dass adorno und horkheimer ihre kritik so radikalisierten dass die vernunft gänzlich in instrumenteller vernunft aufzugehen scheint ohne dass ein restbestand kommunikativer oder emanzipatorischer vernunft erhalten bliebe der die aufklärung noch retten könnte indem sie alle möglichen gründe für rationale rechtfertigung negierten untergruben sie die epistemischen grundlagen auf die sich ihre eigene kritik stützt und verstrickten sich so in einen performativen widerspruch der in einer unauflösbaren aporie endet adornos und horkheimers reduktion der rationalität auf instrumentelle herrschaft lässt keinen raum für kommunikative emanzipatorische vernunft damit untergraben adorno und horkheimer die basis der kritik indem sie der aufklärung jede positive dimension absprechen habermas lehnte wie auch honneth betont den pessimismus adornos und horkheimers grundlegend ab deren kritik war so total dass sie ihre eigenen rationalen fundamente zerstörte wenn vernunft lediglich ein totalisierendes werkzeug der herrschaft ist auf welcher grundlage kann man sie dann kritisieren um dieses problem zu lösen suchte habermas das projekt der moderne zu retten indem er einen anderen vernunftbegriff rekonstruierte und den fokus von der bewusstseinsphilosophie auf die sprachphilosophie und kommunikation verlagerte für habermas ist vernunft nicht primär instrumentell sondern kommunikativ er entwickelte das konzept der idealen sprechsituation und der diskursethik und argumentierte dass normen durch freien und offenen dialog gerechtfertigt werden können die kluft zwischen habermas und der frankfurter schule zeigt sich auch in ihren ansichten zur demokratie im gegensatz zu horkheimer und adorno die die liberale demokratie im wesentlichen als einen mechanismus kapitalistischer herrschaft betrachteten argumentierte habermas dass deren rechtliche und verfahrensmäßige rahmenbedingungen nicht nur illusionär seien er vertrat die auffassung dass sie einen normativen gehalt enthielten der es ermöglicht dass der einfluss kommunikativer macht den verwaltungsstaat durchdringt habermas bewahrte das interesse der frankfurter schule an emanzipation und den dysfunktionalitäten der moderne brach jedoch entscheidend mit ihrem sozialtheoretischen reduktionismus und ihren pessimistischen schlussfolgerungen bezüglich der vernunft seine neukonzeption der vernunft in kommunikativer hinsicht und seine bestimmung demokratischer strukturen als orte emanzipatorischen potenzials veränderten die kritische theorie grundlegend habermas transformierte das projekt der kritischen theorie von einer rein negativen dialektik zu einem rekonstruktiven unternehmen er zeigte dass es heute vielleicht mehr denn je unerlässlich ist kritik nicht in ahistorischem reduktionismus und abstrakter negation in den normativen ansprüchen realer sozialer kämpfe zu verankern share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky real business cycles theory total nonsense 23 mar 2026 at 16 17 posted in economics comments off on real business cycles theory total nonsense they try to explain business cycles solely as problems of information such as asymmetries and imperfections in the information agents have those assumptions are just as arbitrary as the institutional rigidities and inertia they find objectionable in other theories of business fluctuations i try to point out how incapable the new equilibrium business cycles models are of explaining the most obvious observed facts of cyclical fluctuations i don t think that models so far from realistic description should be taken seriously as a guide to policy i don t think that there is a way to write down any model which at one hand respects the possible diversity of agents in taste circumstances and so on and at the other hand also grounds behavior rigorously in utility maximization and which has any substantive content to it james tobin real business cycle theory rbc basically says that economic cycles are caused by technology induced changes in productivity employment goes up or down because people choose to work more when productivity is high and less when it s low this is nothing but pure nonsense and how thomas sargent and company were awarded the sveriges riksbank prize in economic sciences in memory of alfred nobel for this is beyond comprehension in my history of economic theories 4th ed 2007 p 405 i concluded that the problem is that it has turned out to be very difficult to empirically verify the theory s view that economic fluctuations are effects of rational actors optimal intertemporal choices empirical studies have not been able to corroborate the assumption of the sensitivity of labour supply to changes in intertemporal relative prices most studies rather point to expected changes in real wages having only relatively little influence on the supply of labour rigorous models that lack relevance are not to be taken seriously or as a famous british economist once had it share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky how to make progress in quantitative analysis 22 mar 2026 at 22 04 posted in statistics econometrics comments off on how to make progress in quantitative analysis important questions often require a leap from the empirical evidence to the theoretical claim sociology stands out from other social sciences for its willingness to tackle hard questions even when they require such a leap however burying the estimand obscures those decisions and confuses the link between theory and evidence at best this creates an uncomfortable ambiguity about the author s intentions at worst it can mislead rather than a call for sociologists to narrow their ambitions our framework is a call for sociologists to be explicit about the goals that motivate their projects and transparent about the assumptions needed to believe them a paper that develops a compelling theoretical estimand but relies on less than perfect identification assumptions should be recognized for making an important contribution it sets the stage for future work to explore that theoretical estimand under different identification assumptions while it may be simpler obfuscation of the true goal does not make an argument more compelling if we want to make progress on big theoretical questions we should begin every quantitative analysis with a question that makes its purpose precise what is the estimand ian lundberg rebecca johnson brandon stewart as forcefully argued by the authors quantitative research often suffers from a fundamental oversight researchers devote excessive attention to how to estimate while neglecting to specify what is being estimated every serious study has to begin with defining the precise theoretical quantity of interest the estimand without a clearly stated estimand one cannot judge whether the chosen methods are fit for purpose leaving the study s conclusions utterly ambiguous share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky foucault empirical insights and normative confus...
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