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description= 6 posts published by Reidar Visser during November 2008;
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22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 oct dec subscribe entries rss comments rss recent posts legality and constitutionality questions in iraq s reform push the federalism dimension in yemen s draft constitution federalism and decentralization in libya s constitutional proposals groundbreaking iraq supreme court ruling on the law on mp replacement after the rise of isis will iraq s shiites secede additional ministers approved for the iraq cabinet the controversial kurdish ministers in the new iraqi cabinet the iraqi parliament fails to approve new security ministers the iraqi parliament approves the abbadi cabinet haydar al abbadi is the new iraq pm candidate maliki the presidency and parliament in the iraq pm nomination battle pm nomination trouble in iraq iraq elects fuad masum as new president for the first time in iraq a large field of presidential candidates the iraqi parliament elects its new speakership archive for november 2008 the withdrawal treaty is passed posted by reidar visser on thursday 27 november 2008 19 06 today s vote in the iraqi parliament related to the bilateral relationship between the united states and iraq is likely to be reported in the western media as a case of shiites giving certain concessions to sunnis in exchange for their support for a deal on the withdrawal of us forces that is not an accurate account of what has been going on in the iraqi parliament over the past few days what has taken place is that various iraqi opposition forces inside the parliament have discovered the concept of leverage since 25 november there have been persistent reports that groups often critical of the maliki government such as tawafuq sunni islamist al hiwar al watani al iraqiyya secularist and fadila shiite islamist were demanding a reform charter wathiqat al islah in return for their support of the government regarding the status of forces agreement sofa with the us among the key demands was a pledge by the government to work to reform the constitution and the political system of the country more generally as well as committing to revisit the laws relating to the general amnesty law and the treatment of former baathists and to work for the reintegration of the awakening councils al sahwat in the iraqi security forces it should be mentioned in this context that george w bush never managed to use leverage in the negotiations with the iraqi government over bilateral relations instead during the course of one year his administration essentially performed an unconditional reversal of its iraq policy silently moving from its traditional resistance against timetables for withdrawal to accepting a framework that means full withdrawal within 3 years with no opening even for the residual forces that also pragmatists among the democrats have enthusiastically defended one year ago washington had leverage over maliki because he was still weak he needed american support so that he could achieve better control of the iraqi security forces and thereby enhanced control over internal challengers to his rule in 2008 without asking for any favours in return the bush administration gave him this in the shape of a continuation of the surge moreover by performing a surge with no built in requirements for political reform washington consistently enhanced maliki s leverage in the very negotiations that were simultaneously going on between the two sides as a result today maliki is strong enough to adopt a different formula he still wants to exploit american support to the maximum in terms of strengthening iraqi security forces but he is now in a position to relate to the pressures from iraqi nationalism that necessitate a full withdrawal and probably thinks that in the long run it may be better for him to rely on a different survival strategy without the americans by his side in a very optimistic scenario this might involve some kind of constitutional reform most likely in the direction of a greater degree of centralism south of kurdistan as maliki seems to be cognisant of the growing appeal of anti federalism in iraq but based on his past actions it seems doubtful that maliki realises the need to also abolish the system of sectarian domination through ethno sectarian quotas muhasasa and without this kind of profound overhaul of the iraqi system an american withdrawal in the context of a maliki government could mean a turn to greater authoritarianism or even covert or tacit iranian support the developments in the iraqi parliament today very much went in the direction maliki wanted them to go even if the opposition managed to create at least a degree of friction three votes were held first a decision qarar was adopted which reflected the demands of the opposition parties among other things it called for an intensification of efforts towards revising the iraqi constitution steps towards rebuilding the iraqi security forces on a national basis integration of the awakening councils in the security forces and a more general outreach to groups currently outside the political process that are prepared to give up armed resistance it remained more than anything a statement of intent and the document is punctuated with caveats the integration of the sahwat for example should also be according to the government programme and as such today s package of legislation is sadly reminiscent of many of the deals that have been cut with the maliki government since 2006 it bestows ample privileges on the iraqi government in return for promises of reform that are both vague and without a clearly defined timeline still at least it succeeded in keeping these issues on the agenda in the end fadila decided not to show up for the vote and disassociated itself from the deal dismissing it as barter but it is clear that the party had been interested in the attempt to establish a link to political reform a couple of days ago and the demands for systemic reform in iraq ranging from the constitution to the integration of the sahwat are fadila demands as much as they are sunni demands subsequently two separate votes were held on the sofa and the broader strategic framework between the united states and iraq both of which were adopted with solid majorities reflecting the deal between the government parties and parts of the opposition 144 versus 35 votes is indicated in one report although the sofa or the withdrawal treaty as pro government iraqis like to call it is subject to a popular referendum to be held before 30 july 2009 the strategic framework has received less attention as a separate document it is less specific and contains little that the maliki government will worry about as most of the clauses are woolly and generally go in the direction of committing us support for the iraqi government in sectors such as health the economy and culture all in all it seems significant that the government decided to give in to the demands for a promise of reform resistance within the government was quite strong abbas al bayati an islamist with close ties to the islamic supreme council of iraq isci yesterday thundered against any linking of the issues and any tampering with the constitution and kurdish representatives voiced similar objections nonetheless the maliki government eventually did agree to the adoption of a decision on reform that had been demanded by many of the same parties of the cross sectarian 22 july forces that were behind the challenge to the government during the debate on the provincial powers law earlier this year the decision itself is so bland that one can discuss whether this is another victory for the 22 july forces or rather represents the co optation of parts of it iraqiyya al hiwar al watani and the more reluctant parts of tawafuq to work within the very system of ethno sectarian quotas that they reject in principle nevertheless it does seem promising that the opposition in the iraqi parliament in this case managed to turn a fragmented and sometimes ambivalent sense of protest into coherent demands and concessions from the iraqi government that at least will keep issues like constitutional reform on the agenda and thereby could help set the stage for a more profound debate on these issues before the parliamentary elections in 2009 posted in iraqi nationalism uia dynamics comments off on the withdrawal treaty is passed shiite leaders disagree on integration of sons of iraq into army posted by reidar visser on thursday 20 november 2008 15 46 one of the most acute issues in the post surge debate in iraq concerns the integration of the awakening councils sons of iraq into the iraqi army there is growing fear that the iraqi government of prime minister nuri al maliki will approach this issue much in the way it has dealt with other important questions relating to national reconciliation full story here pdf article on pp 22 23 posted in iranian influence in iraq iraqi nationalism uia dynamics us policy in iraq leverage issues comments off on shiite leaders disagree on integration of sons of iraq into army signs of competition in the struggle about basra and federalism posted by reidar visser on wednesday 19 november 2008 15 12 the scheme for the transformation of basra to a federal region has passed its first hurdle after the iraqi elections commission scrutinised the first submission of petitions demanding a referendum and certified them as representing more than the 2 of the electorate required to launch the process towards a referendum the basra federalists now face the far more challenging task of mustering the 10 needed to actually call a popular vote about basra s future simultaneously there are signs that other pro federal forces in and around basra are still considering a bid that would compete with the project for a single governorate federal entity based on basra ever since 2004 other southerners have been working on a similar but slightly bigger federal project that would join basra to dhi qar and maysan in a tripartite union called the region of the south iqlim al janub this project has been somewhat less prominent since around 2006 but has remained popular in certain circles including among some tribal leaders just like the uni governorate iqlim al basra scheme it has historically been presented as an alternative to the plan for a much wider nine governorate sectarian shiite federal region iqlim al wasat wa al janub iqlim janub baghdad which the islamic supreme council for iraq isci tried to promote from august 2005 onwards with dhi qar and maysan joined to basra there would hardly be any oil left in the remaining six shiite dominated governorates perhaps with the exception of wasit whilst the project of a small scale federal region in the south bigger than basra but still considerably smaller than the imaginary shiistan is thus well known the initiators of the recent drive for a petition have so far been less prominent in local politics this could simply have to do with the fact that the iqlim al janub campaign more generally has received less public attention over the past two years because unlike the basra alternative no major players in local politics have emerged as its sponsors still the sudden re emergence of the scheme for a tri governorate federal entity could inspire more sinister interpretations as well there are many persons outside basra who first and foremost may want to create trouble for the basra federalism petition without being genuinely interested in promoting any kind of federal alternative at this stage this is precisely the sort of scenario where the legal framework for the further process lacks detail because an exact deadline for issuing competing calls for a referendum and hence a pre referendum poll or istibyan does not exist in the legal framework that was adopted in october 2006 a third competing call which is theoretically possible given isci s earlier interest in challenging the southerners would further complicate matters there have already been suggestions that isci acting in a spoiler role could be supportive of the apparent revival of the iqlim al janub project back in april 2007 individuals considered friendly to isci received much media attention when they quite abruptly organised a conference in baghdad in support of a small scale tri governorate region in the far south that appeared to be incompatible with the grander federal designs of their patrons in isci still it should be mentioned that forces that are normally more sympathetic to the basrawis such as the fadila leadership in dhi qar have also criticised the decision by some basra leaders to try to go it alone for now one can conclude that a number of political trends that have been important in the far south since 2005 have all been revived and highlighted over the past few months regional variants of federalism iqlim al basra and iqlim al janub are more important than sectarian ones iqlim al wasat wa al janub iqlim janub baghdad hence the main struggle in the south is about non sectarian regionalisms versus iraqi nationalism which for its part still seems to remain influential among large parts of the population nuri al maliki s tendency in 2007 and 2008 to emphasise centralism instead of isci s variant of federalism could be an attempt at calculating the overall outcome of the competing southern bids for autonomy at the same time however it has become increasingly clear that maliki s emergence as some kind of strongman dominating iraq from baghdad through using a nominally iraqi nationalist ideology is not something iran necessarily finds problematic on the contrary in contrast to claims in the western media about a life and death struggle between maliki and iranian hardliners it seems likely that the growing iranian support for a sofa between iraq and the united states already spun by the iraq i government as a withdrawal pact is the result of a masterful undertaking by tehran to maximise its leverage over a number of players on the iraqi shiite scene in basra itself however iran is still struggling the regionalist parties are more friendly with arab gulf states than with tehran whereas many of the iraqi nationalists in the area are not especially happy with the particular brand of iraqi nationalism that maliki appears to be promoting with iranian support posted in basra and southern regionalism comments off on signs of competition in the struggle about basra and federalism an initiative to create the federal region of basra is launched posted by reidar visser on tuesday 11 november 2008 21 21 wail abd al latif the basra parliamentarian and former member of wifaq has announced that a petition requesting a referendum for the creation of the federal region of basra iqlim al basra as a standalone entity has been submitted to the iraqi electoral commission featuring 34 800 signatures the petitioners believe that this number is sufficient to meet the requirement that at least 2 of the governorate voters should sign the initial petition this would ...
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