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description= 15 posts published by Lars Syll during October 2021;
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standardly ignore complexity diversity uncertainty coordination problems non market clearing prices real aggregation problems emergence expectations formation etc etc behavioural and experimental economics not to speak of psychology show beyond any doubts that deep parameters peoples preferences choices and forecasts are regularly influenced by those of other participants in the economy and how about the homogeneity assumption and if all actors are the same why and with whom do they transact and why does economics have to be exclusively teleological concerned with intentional states of individuals where are the arguments for that ontological reductionism and what about collective intentionality and constitutive background rules these are all justified questions so in what way can one maintain that these models give workable microfoundations for macroeconomics science philosopher nancy cartwright gives a good hint at how to answer that question our assessment of the probability of effectiveness is only as secure as the weakest link in our reasoning to arrive at that probability we may have to ignore some issues to make heroic assumptions about them but that should dramatically weaken our degree of confidence in our final assessment rigor isn t contagious from link to link if you want a relatively secure conclusion coming out you d better be careful that each premise is secure going on avoiding logical inconsistencies is crucial in all science but it is not enough just as important is avoiding factual inconsistencies and without showing or at least warrantedly arguing that the assumptions and premises of their models are in fact true mainstream economists aren t really reasoning but only playing games formalistic deductive glasperlenspiel can be very impressive and seductive but in the realm of science it ought to be considered of little or no value to simply make claims about the model and lose sight of reality instead of making the model the message i think we are better served by economists who more than anything else try to contribute to solving real problems and then the motto of john maynard keynes is more valid than ever it is better to be vaguely right than precisely wrong share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky of what use are rcts 27 oct 2021 at 16 20 posted in economics comments off on of what use are rcts in her interesting pufendorf lectures nancy cartwright presents a theory of evidence and explains why randomized controlled trials rcts are not at all the gold standard that it has lately often been portrayed as as yours truly has repeatedly argued on this blog e g here and here rcts usually do not provide evidence that their results are exportable to other target systems the almost religious belief with which its advocates portray it cannot hide the fact that rcts cannot be taken for granted to give generalizable results that something works somewhere is no warranty for it to work for us or even that it works generally share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky näringslivstopparnas motbjudande arrogans 24 oct 2021 at 18 16 posted in politics society 1 comment volvos carl henrik svanberg försökte häromdagen förklara varför volvo ab inte vill betala tillbaka det permitteringsstöd företaget tagit emot under pandemin svt företagen som fick mest krisstöd gjorde vinst på 43 miljarder ett av de mest arroganta och ur etisk synpunkt motbjudande uttalanden jag någonsin hört från svenskt näringsliv makt korrumperar och förblindar och som lök på laxen har vi en näringsminister som bara låtsas att det regnar istället för att ryta till och slå näven i bordet herre du min milde och detta grodors plums och ankors plask ska man behöva höra år 2021 man tager sig för pannan share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky the late estimator a critique wonkish 24 oct 2021 at 11 58 posted in statistics econometrics comments off on the late estimator a critique wonkish one of the reasons guido imbens and joshua angrist were given this year s nobel prize in economics is their late estimator used in instrumental variables estimation of causal effects another prominent nobel prize winner in economics angus deaton is not overly impressed without explicit prior consideration of the effect of the instrument choice on the parameter being estimated such a procedure is effectively the opposite of standard statistical practice in which a parameter of interest is defined first followed by an estimator that delivers that parameter instead we have a procedure in which the choice of the instrument which is guided by criteria designed for a situation in which there is no heterogeneity is implicitly allowed to determine the parameter of interest this goes beyond the old story of looking for an object where the light is strong enough to see rather we have at least some control over the light but choose to let it fall where it may and then proclaim that whatever it illuminates is what we were looking for all along the late may or may not be a parameter of interest to the world bank or the chinese government and in general there is no reason to suppose that it will be i find it hard to make any sense of the late we are unlikely to learn much about the processes at work if we refuse to say anything about what determines the effect parameter θ heterogeneity is not a technical problem calling for an econometric solution but a reflection of the fact that we have not started on our proper business which is trying to understand what is going on of course if we are as skeptical of the ability of economic theory to deliver useful models as are many applied economists today the ability to avoid modeling can be seen as an advantage though it should not be a surprise when such an approach delivers answers that are hard to interpret share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky jános kornai 1928 2021 24 oct 2021 at 10 10 posted in economics comments off on jános kornai 1928 2021 instead of real maturity we see that general equilibrium theory possesses only pseudo maturity for the description of the economic system mathematical economics has succeeded in constructing a formalized theoretical structure thus giving an impression of maturity but one of the main criteria of maturity namely verification has hardly been satisfied in comparison to the amount of work devoted to the construction of the abstract theory the amount of effort which has been applied up to now in checking the assumptions and statements seems inconsequential share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky milton friedman an intellectually dishonest peddler of neoliberalism 24 oct 2021 at 09 59 posted in economics 23 comments last friday november 9 saw the big milton friedman centennial celebration at the university of chicago s becker friedman institute for research in economics it was a big day for fans of one of the founding fathers of neoliberal libertarian free market ideology one episode in milton friedman s career not celebrated or even acknowledged at last week s centennial took place in 1946 the same year friedman began peddling his pro business free market economics ideology according to congressional hearings on illegal lobbying activities 46 was the year that milton friedman and his u chicago cohort george stigler arranged an under the table deal with a washington lobbying executive to pump out covert propaganda for the national real estate lobby in exchange for a hefty payout the terms of which were never meant to be released to the public the arrangement between friedman and stigler with the washington real estate lobbyist was finally revealed during he buchanan committee hearings on illegal lobbying activities in 1950 but then it was almost entirely forgotten including apparently by those celebrating the milton friedman centennial last week in chicago mark ames share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky the last resort 23 oct 2021 at 14 49 posted in varia 1 comment one of the most brilliantly beautiful songs ever written in loving memory of my brother peter uncas pålsson share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky all by myself 23 oct 2021 at 14 33 posted in varia comments off on all by myself share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky how to achieve exchangeability student stuff 21 oct 2021 at 16 53 posted in statistics econometrics comments off on how to achieve exchangeability student stuff share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky pourquoi toutes les marques de luxe sont elles françaises 21 oct 2021 at 14 47 posted in varia 1 comment my favourite french teacher share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky economics non ideological and value free i ll be dipped 20 oct 2021 at 17 46 posted in economics 1 comment i ve subsequently stayed away from the minimum wage literature for a number of reasons first it cost me a lot of friends people that i had known for many years for instance some of the ones i met at my first job at the university of chicago became very angry or disappointed they thought that in publishing our work we were being traitors to the cause of economics as a whole david card share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky david card and the minimum wage myth 18 oct 2021 at 22 07 posted in economics 2 comments back in 1992 new jersey raised the minimum wage by 18 per cent while its neighbour state pennsylvania left its minimum wage unchanged unemployment in new jersey should according to mainstream economic theory s competitive model have increased relative to pennsylvania however when nobel prize winning economist david card and his colleague alan krueger gathered information on fast food restaurants in the two states to check what employment effects the minimum wage really have using a basic difference in differences approach it turned out that unemployment had actually decreased in new jersey relative to that in pennsylvania counter to mainstream theory we had an anomalous case of a backward sloping supply curve lo and behold but of course when facts and theory don t agree it s the facts that have to be wrong the inverse relationship between quantity demanded and price is the core proposition in economic science which embodies the pre supposition that human choice behavior is sufficiently rational to allow predictions to be made just as no physicist would claim that water runs uphill no self respecting economist would claim that increases in the minimum wage increase employment such a claim if seriously advanced becomes equivalent to a denial that there is even minimal scientific content in economics and that in consequence economists can do nothing but write as advocates for ideological interests fortunately only a handful of economists are willing to throw over the teaching of two centuries we have not yet become a bevy of camp following whores james m buchanan in wall street journal april 25 1996 share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky next page recent posts arbetslöshetssiffran som styr den ekonomiska politiken 50 år efter studenten personal finding the late student stuff love s secret stein s paradox a lesson on precision and unbiasedness audioholic summer research ett välförtjänt bottenrekord arbetslösheten inte statsskulden är problemet how credible is the credibility revolution in econometrics randomness and representativeness are not the same lönebildning och arbetslöshet i sverige nancy cartwright s contributions to the philosophy of science what does randomisation guarantee nothing model reification in statistics and econometrics why democracy outperforms dictatorship comments policy i like comments follow netiquette comments especially anonymous ones with pseudo argumentations abusive language or irrelevant links will not be posted and please remember being a full time professor leaves only limited time to respond to comments recent comments jan wiklund on arbetslöshetssiffran som styr jan milch on arbetslöshetssiffran som styr jan milch on arbetslöshetssiffran som styr fred torssander on 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