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ous problem i m sure that you all realised that the mathematician combined the previous two estimates using bayes theorem note that the question as posed specifically defines the tower as a sample from a uniform distribution so it s a perfect well posed frequentist problem and the bayesian frequentist rambling in the comments is completely misplaced the vaguely amusing point i was making is that although the engineer and physicist did nothing wrong initially and both concluded that there was a significant 1 danger as soon as each of them hears the other one agree with their conclusion their position immediately becomes untenable their only fault is to not realise this as quickly as the mathematician did posted by james annan at monday february 06 2006 22 comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest sunday february 05 2006 sutaabakkusu sutaabakkusu is japanese for starbucks and i m going to come out of the closet and admit that i am a fan boo hiss i hear my reader cry why are you supporting such an evil culturally imperialistic faceless multinational corporation as it stamps its ugly jackboot in the face of timeless japanese culture and beauty it s 100 no smoking that s why one of the more annoying features of everyday japan is the omnipresence of smokers the proportion of the male population who smoke is one of the highest in the world and there s no getting away from them i wouldn t care if they kept it to themselves but they don t until recently a lot of cafes and restaurants didn t even have a no smoking section so although you might go in spot a quiet smog free corner and sit down there you would always have the risk that 5 minutes later some old man would sit right next to you and start coughing and spluttering and blowing smoke over you and your food this cigarette of damocles hanging over us is hardly conducive to a relaxing meal even when a cafe had a no smoking section it was never anything more than a few tables barely visible through the haze about as much use as a no pissing end in a swimming pool and then after we d been here for a year or so the first starbucks opened in kamakura and it was 100 no smoking there are a few tables outside for the addicts and everyone flocked there for surprisingly enough the non smokers actually outnumber the smokers and even the smokers like to sit down in a nice clean environment every now and again you must have noticed how the smoking carriages on trains are always the last to fill up with smokers preferring to sit in a non smoking area and pop out for a smoke once or twice there was an article about the success of starbucks in the jt a couple of years ago ok here it is i remember thinking at the time that the author was astonishingly out of touch in the way he seemed to think that their growth was despite rather than substantially because of their no smoking policy perhaps in his sneering superiority he had never actually been to one maybe he is one of the addicts for whom clean air is an unwelcome assault on the senses maybe he is just a nutcase anyway the rest of japan is scrabbling to follow in starbucks footsteps with no smoking areas now springing up all over the place even the newly rebranded in house japanrailways becks cafes haunt of the haggard overworked salaryman now generally have large well segregated no smoking areas the small branch in ofuna station is 100 no smoking for at least part of the day our favourite restaurant is also fully no smoking it s the best indian restaurant in japan so be sure to try it out when you re in the area there are still plenty of smoky dives to be found but they are slowly dying out i d prefer it if they went no smoking themselves but as it is when i want a coffee or a snack i look out for the green and white sign recently a new and even better starbucks has opened in kamakura it might have happened some time ago it s in a part of town we rarely visit west of the centre in front of the city office it s a big bright airy building and even has a view into a garden so i can often be found there on a sunday morning worshipping the roasted bean at the church of st arbucks in fact i wrote most of this blog there who s for a green tea jelly frappuccino with whipped cream and caramel update 5 2 06 and i d just like to mention that british style pub the tavern in yokohama has just implemented a no smoking side too which is great news the owner said that far from chasing away customers it had proved a great success so far with the bar splitting the room into 2 sections it looks like the smoke free part should stay fairly clear the pub does good british style food so it will be much improved without someone puffing away right next to us i know i ll be more likely to pop in for a drink and a bite to eat thanks john posted by james annan at sunday february 05 2006 0 comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest friday february 03 2006 woohoo our latest paper was just accepted by grl i think the contents may be of general interest so i ll be blogging about it some time soon when i m less tired and emotional those who are interested in the meantime will find it on my work web page posted by james annan at friday february 03 2006 12 comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest thursday february 02 2006 probability prediction and verification v commotion in the comments well having posted what i thought was an interesting but essentially uncontentious discussion of bayesian and frequentist approaches to probability i was rather surprised to see the reaction in the comments i m going to pick primarily on wolfgang at first because he has given his opinions most explicitly which exposes the inconsistencies most clearly from what i can glean of their comments i think the others are displaying similarly inconsistent attitudes however he starts out in physics statements about probability makes sense in two cases i quantum theory ii systems where we do not know the initial state exactly in all cases we must be confident about the theory kinematics and dynamic otherwise the use of probability is misleading probability is not a good replacement for missing or wrong theories your example of the prime number illustrates this very well i could perhaps quibble over exactly what is meant by we do not know the initial state exactly but this looks like it is at least trying to be a fundamentally frequentist position fine if that s what he really wants but later on i pose the following problem in the comments to cip s post nb the electron neutrino is just some arbitrary poorly known particle i am assuming the wikipedia page is reasonably valid when it says its mass is thought to lie between 0 1ev and 2 5ev but note that even this statement is only meaningful in a bayesian worldview say you are trying to measure the mass of the electron neutrino one possible experiment costs 1 million and would work down to 0 5ev another possible experiment would cost 10 million but would work to 0 1ev you have other demands on the money do you consider there is any information in the above that can help you choose one experiment rather than the other do you consider that questions along the lines of how likely do i think it is that the mass of the neutrino is less that 0 5ev are even legitimate in the first place or do you simply reject that as an ill posed question if that is the case how do you actually make the decision in practice if the cost of the second experiment were 1 1 or 100 million would your decision change after some prompting wolfgang replied that if you have reason to believe that the neutrino mass is in the range m 0 1 2 5ev you can calculate probabilities this is because you have different scenarios m 0 11 m 0 21 etc which are all consistent and compatibel with what you know but this is precisely espousing the bayesian attitude that he rejected previously so it seems that he s a bayesian without realising it or perhaps a bayesian depending on how he feels at the time he has not yet explained how he would calculate these probabilities or what they could possibly mean in a frequentist world cip makes similarly odd noises in his posts here and here he says subjective plausibility makes my skin crawl i have no idea what the hell it is supposed to mean i can t think of any case when an expressed probability isn t either based on an explicit or implicit frequentist interpretation or else like mr spock s invariably misguided predictions merely an ignorant prejudice but has so far ducked my question about the electron neutrino there were other various comments along vaguely similar lines i think that some of these people don t actually understand how the bayesian and frequentist views of probability actually differ i ll try to explain further with a simple example i have a max min thermometer in my garden which i reset each day it measures the max and min and let s assume that i know that the error on each day s measurement is well characterised as a standard gaussian deviate ie a sample from n 0 1 this morning i went out and saw that the min from the last night was 5c what is the probability that the actual minimum was below 5c most people will instinctively answer that the probability is 50 reasoning that the error is just as likely to be positive as negative most people would be wrong the probability depends on the prior distribution before you looked at the thermometer this is an unavoidable consequence of how bayes theorem works the posterior is equal to the prior multiplied by the likelihood of the true temperature given the observation those who do not understand this will repeatedly get themselves into trouble when discussing probabilistic estimation to those who insist that 50 is the right answer consider this situation say i know that the record low temperature ever recorded in my town of which my garden is representative is 4c will i still believe that there is a 50 chance that last night s temperature was below 5c of course not temperature records are virtually never broken by such a large margin in this case my prior probability density function has its mean and the bulk of its support above 5c so even after measuring 5c the posterior mean is above 5c even with a less extreme example say the record low is 6c but the typical february daily minimum temperature is 1c a rational bayesian will still probably based on the info supplied conclude that the temperature was probably warmer than 5c the naive frequentists will say that they can interpret this in a frequentist sense consider sampling the temperature each day and on those days when you see a temperature of 5c was it warmer or colder but what distribution do you sample your days from statistics for every day in the last 30 years every february in the last 30 years every february 2nd when there had been rain on the previous day as was the case this time note that if you actually sample from the finite population you can never assing a non zero probability to breaking any record and more generally you can never assign a non zero probability to any state you have not already observed so you have to make some subjective ugh decisions about how to define a sensible continuous prior distribution is it gaussian weibull spline through the histogram of data and you have to make subjective ugh decisions about which historical data you base your distribution on and then you perform some hypothetical thought experiment in which days are drawn at random from this subjective ugh and hypothetical prior distribution and this is precisely the bayesian paradigm in the above example the whole concept of probability is only valid to a frequentist when the prior distribution is given a priori groan for example if we sample the feb daily min temperature from a particular pdf f and then measure this temperature with error as stated before then if the temperature measurement is 5c what is the probability that the sampled temperature is less than 5c any frequentist or bayesian can answer that question easily and correctly but i did not define the prior in the prior version groan again i just asked for the probability a bayesian has to and is prepared to choose a reasonable prior and realises that his answer is not an objective statement of the true probability but a somewhat subjective one contingent on the prior he chose a competent frequentist will say the question has no meaning without a clearly defined prior a naive frequentist will probably provide an answer like the original 50 without even realising that they are implicitly making an assumption of a particular and likely unrealistic prior which category are you in posted by james annan at thursday february 02 2006 40 comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest female on throne could marry foreigner hiranuma warns i shouldn t be too hard on the japanese for this because of course every country has its share of reactionary bigots if aiko becomes the reigning empress and gets involved with a blue eyed foreigner while studying abroad and marries him their child may be the emperor hiranuma told about 40 lawmakers academics and supporters at a tokyo hall we should never let that happen this is nothing more than misogyny dressed up in the apparently more aceptable clothes of racism it s always been the case that a male emperor could marry a foreigner so there seems no obvious reason why this should afect the female empress question in fact the current crown prince met his wife while studying abroad at oxford it s doubly bizarre because not only does the japanese royal family already have korean blood in it but there have also been a couple of female empresses too of course all this was back in feudal times and to some people such ideas are clearly inappropriate in the 21st century posted by james annan at thursday february 02 2006 4 comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest wednesday february 01 2006 the ravage of the planet 2006 this is the title of a scientific conference later this year i ll let the introductory blurb speak for itself the state of our planet continues to deteriorate at an alarming rate we have arrived at a situation where we need to determine urgent solutions before we reach a point of irreversible deterioration our current civilisation has fallen into a self destructive process by which natural resources are consumed at an increasing rate this process has now spread across the planet in search of further sources of energy and materials the aggressiveness of this quest is such that the future of our planet is in the balance the problem is compounded by the pernicious effect of the resulting pollution further details on this website the ravage of the planet 2006 i m especially impressed to note that the predominantly european organisers turned down the choice of numerous local ravaged site...
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