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s redistribution of purchasing power will also occur between international trading partners where fixed exchange rates are imposed higher inflation in one economy than another will cause the first economy s exports to become more expensive and affect the balance of trade there can also be negative effects to trade from an increased instability in currency exchange prices caused by unpredictable inflation hoarding people buy durable and or non perishable commodities and other goods as stores of wealth to avoid the losses expected from the declining purchasing power of money creating shortages of the hoarded goods social unrest and revolts inflation can lead to massive demonstrations and revolutions thomas sargent showed how the huge public debt hoarded by louis xvi stimulated the french revolution 123 after the revolution inflation replaced debt as a tool for financing the debt 124 125 the post revolution hyperinflation is considered as one of the reason for the rise of napoleon 126 127 128 likewise the german hyperinflation is considered to be one of the reason for the rise of the nazi party 129 130 inflation and in particular food inflation is considered one of the main reasons that caused the 2010 2011 tunisian revolution 131 and the 2011 egyptian revolution 132 according to many observers including robert zoellick 133 president of the world bank tunisian president zine el abidine ben ali was ousted egyptian president hosni mubarak was also ousted after only 18 days of demonstrations and protests soon spread in many countries of north africa and middle east the high inflation in iran especially of food is considered as one of the main reasons for the 2025 2026 mass protests in iran 134 135 136 hyperinflation if inflation becomes too high it can cause people to severely curtail their use of the currency leading to an acceleration in the inflation rate high and accelerating inflation grossly interferes with the normal workings of the economy hurting its ability to supply goods hyperinflation can lead people to abandon the use of the country s currency in favour of external currencies dollarization as has been reported to have occurred in north korea 137 allocative efficiency a change in the supply or demand for a good will normally cause its relative price to change signaling the buyers and sellers that they should re allocate resources in response to the new market conditions but when prices are constantly changing due to inflation price changes due to genuine relative price signals are difficult to distinguish from price changes due to general inflation so agents are slow to respond to them the result is a loss of allocative efficiency shoe leather cost high inflation increases the opportunity cost of holding cash balances and can induce people to hold a greater portion of their assets in interest paying accounts however since cash is still needed to carry out transactions this means that more trips to the bank are necessary to make withdrawals proverbially wearing out the shoe leather with each trip menu cost with high inflation firms must change their prices often to keep up with economy wide changes but often changing prices is itself a costly activity whether explicitly as with the need to print new menus or implicitly as with the extra time and effort needed to change prices constantly tax inflation serves as a hidden tax on currency holdings 138 139 positive edit labour market adjustments nominal wages are slow to adjust downward this can lead to prolonged disequilibrium and high unemployment in the labor market since inflation allows real wages to fall even if nominal wages are kept constant moderate inflation enables labor markets to reach equilibrium faster 140 room to maneuver the primary tools for controlling the money supply are the ability to set the discount rate the rate at which banks can borrow from the central bank and open market operations which are the central bank s interventions into the bonds market with the aim of affecting the nominal interest rate if an economy finds itself in a recession with already low or even zero nominal interest rates then the bank cannot cut these rates further since negative nominal interest rates are impossible to stimulate the economy this situation is known as a liquidity trap mundell tobin effect according to the mundell tobin effect an increase in inflation leads to an increase in capital investment which leads to an increase in growth 141 the nobel laureate robert mundell noted that moderate inflation would induce savers to substitute lending for some money holding as a means to finance future spending that substitution would cause market clearing real interest rates to fall 142 the lower real rate of interest would induce more borrowing to finance investment in a similar vein nobel laureate james tobin noted that such inflation would cause businesses to substitute investment in physical capital plant equipment and inventories for money balances in their asset portfolios that substitution would mean choosing the making of investments with lower rates of real return the rates of return are lower because the investments with higher rates of return were already being made before 143 the two related effects are known as the mundell tobin effect unless the economy is already overinvesting according to models of economic growth theory that extra investment resulting from the effect would be seen as positive instability with deflation economist s c tsiang noted that once substantial deflation is expected two important effects will appear both a result of money holding substituting for lending as a vehicle for saving 144 the first was that continually falling prices and the resulting incentive to hoard money will cause instability resulting from the likely increasing fear while money hoards grow in value that the value of those hoards are at risk as people realize that a movement to trade those money hoards for real goods and assets will quickly drive those prices up any movement to spend those hoards once started would become a tremendous avalanche which could rampage for a long time before it would spend itself 145 thus a regime of long term deflation is likely to be interrupted by periodic spikes of rapid inflation and consequent real economic disruptions the second effect noted by tsiang is that when savers have substituted money holding for lending on financial markets the role of those markets in channeling savings into investment is undermined with nominal interest rates driven to zero or near zero from the competition with a high return money asset there would be no price mechanism in whatever is left of those markets with financial markets effectively euthanized the remaining goods and physical asset prices would move in perverse directions for example an increased desire to save could not push interest rates further down and thereby stimulate investment but would instead cause additional money hoarding driving consumer prices further down and making investment in consumer goods production thereby less attractive moderate inflation once its expectation is incorporated into nominal interest rates would give those interest rates room to go both up and down in response to shifting investment opportunities or savers preferences and thus allow financial markets to function in a more normal fashion cost of living allowance edit see also cost of living the real purchasing power of fixed payments is eroded by inflation unless they are inflation adjusted to keep their real values constant in many countries employment contracts pension benefits and government entitlements such as social security are tied to a cost of living index typically to the consumer price index 146 a cost of living adjustment cola adjusts salaries based on changes in a cost of living index 147 it does not control inflation but rather seeks to mitigate the consequences of inflation for those on fixed incomes salaries are typically adjusted annually in low inflation economies during hyperinflation they are adjusted more often 146 they may also be tied to a cost of living index that varies by geographic location if the employee moves annual escalation clauses in employment contracts can specify retroactive or future percentage increases in worker pay which are not tied to any index these negotiated increases in pay are colloquially referred to as cost of living adjustments colas or cost of living increases because of their similarity to increases tied to externally determined indexes control of inflation edit monetary policy is the policy enacted by the monetary authorities most frequently the central bank of a nation to accomplish their objectives 148 among these keeping inflation at a low and stable level is often a prominent objective either directly via inflation targeting or indirectly e g via a fixed exchange rate against a low inflation currency area historical approaches to inflation control edit historically central banks and governments have followed various policies to achieve low inflation employing various nominal anchors before world war i the gold standard was prevalent but was eventually found to be detrimental to economic stability and employment not least during the great depression in the 1930s 149 for the first decades after world war ii the bretton woods system initiated a fixed exchange rate system for most developed countries tying their currencies to the us dollar which again was directly convertible to gold 150 the system disintegrated in the 1970s however after which the major currencies started floating against each other 151 during the 1970s many central banks turned to a money supply target recommended by milton friedman and other monetarists aiming for a stable growth rate of money to control inflation however it was found to be impractical because of the unstable relationship between monetary aggregates and other macroeconomic variables and was eventually abandoned by all major economies 149 in 1990 new zealand as the first country ever adopted an official inflation target as the basis of its monetary policy continually adjusting interest rates to steer the country s inflation rate towards its official target the strategy was generally considered to work well and central banks in most developed countries have over the years adapted a similar strategy 152 as of 2023 the central banks of all g7 member countries can be said to follow an inflation target including the european central bank and the federal reserve who have adopted the main elements of inflation targeting without officially calling themselves inflation targeters 152 in emerging countries fixed exchange rate regimes are still the most common monetary policy 153 fixed exchange rates edit main article fixed exchange rate system under a fixed exchange rate currency regime a country s currency is tied in value to another single currency or to a basket of other currencies a fixed exchange rate is usually used to stabilize the value of a currency vis a vis the currency it is pegged to it can also be used as a means to control inflation if the currency area tied to itself maintains low and stable inflation however as the value of the reference currency rises and falls so does the currency pegged to it this essentially means that the inflation rate in the fixed exchange rate country is determined by the inflation rate of the country the currency is pegged to in addition a fixed exchange rate prevents a government from using domestic monetary policy to achieve macroeconomic stability 154 as of 2023 denmark is the only oecd country which maintains a fixed exchange rate against the euro but it is frequently used as a monetary policy strategy in developing countries 153 gold standard edit main article gold standard two 20 krona gold coins from the scandinavian monetary union a historical example of an international gold standard the gold standard is a monetary system in which a region s common medium of exchange is paper notes or other monetary token that are normally freely convertible into pre set fixed quantities of gold the standard specifies how the gold backing would be implemented including the amount of specie per currency unit the currency itself has no innate value but is accepted by traders because it can be redeemed for the equivalent value of the commodity specie a u s silver certificate for example could be redeemed for an actual piece of silver under a gold standard the long term rate of inflation or deflation would be determined by the growth rate of the supply of gold relative to total output 155 critics argue that this will cause arbitrary fluctuations in the inflation rate and that monetary policy would essentially be determined by an intersection of however much new gold was produced by mining and changing demand for gold for practical uses 156 157 the gold standard was historically found to make it more difficult to stabilize employment levels and avoid recessions and was eventually abandoned everywhere 149 158 demurrage currency edit freiwirtschaft economists theorize that demurrage currency could eliminate both inflation and deflation there tends to be some interest cost that is built into the goods and services that consumers tend to purchase 159 4 so if demurrage currency eliminates interest rates then prices are less likely to increase demurrage would also naturally cause the money supply to decrease thus causing deflation if a central bank issues and monitors demurrage currency as gesell originally proposed then it could replace all the money that disappears due to demurrage by printing money at a similar rate 160 the money printing could create just enough inflation to cancel out the natural deflation of demurrage thus achieving an inflation target of 0 161 inflation targeting edit main article inflation targeting from its first inception in new zealand in 1990 direct inflation targeting as a monetary policy strategy has spread to become prevalent among developed countries the basic idea is that the central bank perpetually adjusts the bank rate to influence the country s inflation rate towards its official target changes in interest rates affect aggregate demand aggregate supply and inflation in various ways also called the monetary transmission mechanism 162 the relation between unemployment and inflation is known as the phillips curve in most oecd countries the inflation target is about 2 163 citizens show generally a high aversion to inflation 164 on average voters prefer an inflation rate around 0 165 government policy edit the government can prevent inflation with public policy fiscal policy and regulatory changes which increase supply or reduce demand in targeted sectors 166 another method attempted in the past have been price controls economists generally advise against the imposition of price controls due to resulting shortages 167 168 169 price controls with rationing have be...
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