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description= 15 posts published by Lars Syll during April 2022;
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ts share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky papa was a rollin stone 27 apr 2022 at 23 51 posted in varia comments off on papa was a rollin stone share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky nils frahm some 27 apr 2022 at 23 22 posted in varia comments off on nils frahm some share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky fisher s exact test student stuff 27 apr 2022 at 08 44 posted in statistics econometrics comments off on fisher s exact test student stuff share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky on mathematics and economics 26 apr 2022 at 17 12 posted in economics comments off on on mathematics and economics studying mathematics and logic is interesting and fun it sharpens the mind but economics is not pure mathematics or logic it s about society the real world forgetting that economics becomes nothing but an irrelevant and uninteresting glasperlenspiel or as knut wicksell put it already a century ago one must of course beware of expecting from this method more than it can give out of the crucible of calculation comes not an atom more truth than was put in the assumptions being hypothetical the results obviously cannot claim more than a very limited validity the mathematical expression ought to facilitate the argument clarify the results and so guard against possible faults of reasoning that is all it is by the way evident that the economic aspects must be the determining ones everywhere economic truth must never be sacrificed to the desire for mathematical elegance share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky il vortice della mondanità 24 apr 2022 at 11 01 posted in varia comments off on il vortice della mondanità a movie as large as life itself share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky marine le pen sherlock holmes of the century 23 apr 2022 at 16 51 posted in politics society comments off on marine le pen sherlock holmes of the century guess there are a couple of things that lady ought to be informed about when it comes to russian elections share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky so arm ist putin wirklich 23 apr 2022 at 12 12 posted in politics society comments off on so arm ist putin wirklich share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky significance testing and the real tasks of social science 21 apr 2022 at 11 36 posted in statistics econometrics 2 comments after having mastered all the technicalities of regression analysis and econometrics students often feel as though they are masters of the universe i usually cool them down with the required reading of christopher achen s modern classic interpreting and using regression it usually gets them back on track again and they understand that no increase in methodological sophistication alter the fundamental nature of the subject it remains a wondrous mixture of rigorous theory experienced judgment and inspired guesswork and that finally is its charm and in case they get too excited about having learned to master the intricacies of proper significance tests and p values i ask them to also ponder on achen s apt warning significance testing as a search for specification errors substitutes calculations for substantive thinking worse it channels energy toward the hopeless search for functionally correct specifications and diverts attention from the real tasks which are to formulate a manageable description of the data and to exclude competing ones share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky sverige behöver en hållbar riksbankslag 21 apr 2022 at 10 37 posted in politics society comments off on sverige behöver en hållbar riksbankslag ett lands centralbank har makten att skapa pengar och styra hur dessa används det gör riksbanken till en avgörande institution för sveriges möjligheter till hållbar omställning ska denna makt kunna användas på ett konstruktivt sätt måste riksbankens mål och verktygslåda uppdateras annars finns risk att penningpolitiken fortsätter på den tidigare kritiserade banan där låg ränta och kvantitativa lättnader blåst upp bubblor på börsen och bostadsmarknaden vilket ökat de ekonomiska klyftorna skapat zombieföretag och gynnat fossila företag därför är det positivt att regeringen tagit initiativ till en ny riksbankslag som kommer behandlas nu den 21 april av konstitutionsutskottet och den 1 juni av riksdagen förslaget har dock missat att ta intryck av den diskussion som pågår världen över om hur centralbanker kan bidra till ekologiskt ekonomiskt och socialt hållbara samhällen över 80 centralbanker och tillsynsmyndigheter har inom samarbetet network of central banks and supervisors for greening the financial system ngfs tagit fram en rapport med nio kraftfulla åtgärder en centralbank kan vidta om den politiska viljan finns men här i sverige väljer regeringen istället att lägga fram ett lagförslag med ett antal brister det är positivt att regeringen tagit initiativ till en översyn och uppdatering av riksbankslagen riksbankens uppdrag och befogenheter behöver vara tydligt definierade ändamålsenliga och demokratiskt förankrade men i ljuset av den pågående klimatkrisen lärdomarna från coronakrisen och de stora förändringar som pågår just nu på betal och finansmarknaderna så är förslaget redan utdaterat lagen riskerar att bakbinda riksbankens handlingsutrymme till gårdagens kritiserade penningpolitiska verktygslåda vilket sannolikt kommer göra större skada än nytta lagen lever inte upp till rimliga krav för en modern och hållbar centralbank den skapar inte ens tydligt utrymme för att använda merparten av de gröna verktyg riksbanken själva har varit med och identifierat inom ngfs samarbetet vi kan bättre än så tänk om och tänk rätt isadora wronski jonas bane lars p syll samuel färdow kazen sasja beslik share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky adorno in 60 minuten 19 apr 2022 at 14 47 posted in politics society comments off on adorno in 60 minuten share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky the main insight of mmt 19 apr 2022 at 11 05 posted in economics 44 comments mmt is first and foremost a balance sheet approach to macroeconomics at its very core lie reserve accounting then deposit accounting and then sectoral balances accounting there is very little behaviour in any of this equilibrium rules as all balances balance in both flows and stocks and there are no assumptions apart from the existence of a central bank a treasury a banking system and some households and firms mmt can only be learned by mastering its balance sheet approach it can only be engaged by discussing the balance sheet operations it puts forward it is here where value is added first of all the main insight of mmt is that the mainstream has the sequence wrong whereas they assume that government expenditure is financed by taxes mmt assumes that government spending is financed by money creation mmt stresses that the central bank empowered by the law and serving the state is the monopoly issuer of currency this logically means that the state has to spend before taxes can be paid when taxpayers pay their taxes or banks buy government bonds on the primary market they first need to have state money dirk ehnts fiscal deficits always lead to an increase in the supply of financial assets held in the nongovernmental sector of the economy this real world fact of course constitutes a huge problem for mainstream textbook macroeconomic theory with its models building on money multipliers and loanable funds the loanable funds theory is in many regards nothing but an approach where the ruling rate of interest in society is pure and simple conceived as nothing else than the price of loans or credit determined by supply and demand as bertil ohlin put it in the same way as the price of eggs and strawberries on a village market in the traditional loanable funds theory as presented in mainstream macroeconomics textbooks the amount of loans and credit available for financing investment is constrained by how much saving is available saving is the supply of loanable funds investment is the demand for loanable funds and assumed to be negatively related to the interest rate as argued by kelton there are many problems with the standard presentation and formalization of the loanable funds theory and more can be added to the list 1 as already noticed by james meade decades ago the causal story told to explicate the accounting identities used gives the picture of a dog called saving wagged its tail labelled investment in keynes s view and later over and over again confirmed by empirical research it s not so much the interest rate at which firms can borrow that causally determines the amount of investment undertaken but rather their internal funds profit expectations and capacity utilization 2 as is typical of most mainstream macroeconomic formalizations and models there is pretty little mention of real world phenomena like e g real money credit rationing and the existence of multiple interest rates in the loanable funds theory loanable funds theory essentially reduces modern monetary economies to something akin to barter systems something they definitely are not as emphasized especially by minsky to understand and explain how much investment loaning crediting is going on in an economy it s much more important to focus on the working of financial markets than staring at accounting identities like s y c g the problems we meet on modern markets today have more to do with inadequate financial institutions than with the size of loanable funds savings 3 the loanable funds theory in the new keynesian approach means that the interest rate is endogenized by assuming that central banks can try to adjust it in response to an eventual output gap this of course is essentially nothing but an assumption of walras law being valid and applicable and that a fortiori the attainment of equilibrium is secured by the central banks interest rate adjustments from a realist keynes minsky point of view this can t be considered anything else than a belief resting on nothing but sheer hope not to mention that more and more central banks actually choose not to follow taylor like policy rules the age old belief that central banks control the money supply has more and more come to be questioned and replaced by an endogenous money view and i think the same will happen to the view that central banks determine the rate of interest 4 a further problem in the traditional loanable funds theory is that it assumes that saving and investment can be treated as independent entities to keynes this was seriously wrong the classical theory of the rate of interest the loanable funds theory seems to suppose that if the demand curve for capital shifts or if the curve relating the rate of interest to the amounts saved out of a given income shifts or if both these curves shift the new rate of interest will be given by the point of intersection of the new positions of the two curves but this is a nonsense theory for the assumption that income is constant is inconsistent with the assumption that these two curves can shift independently of one another if either of them shifts then in general income will change with the result that the whole schematism based on the assumption of a given income breaks down in truth the classical theory has not been alive to the relevance of changes in the level of income or to the possibility of the level of income being actually a function of the rate of the investment there are always at least two parts to an economic transaction savers and investors have different liquidity preferences and face different choices and their interactions usually only take place intermediated by financial institutions this importantly also means that there is no direct and immediate automatic interest mechanism at work in modern monetary economies what this ultimately boils done to is iter that what happens at the microeconomic level both in and out of equilibrium is not always compatible with the macroeconomic outcome the fallacy of composition the atomistic fallacy of keynes has many faces loanable funds is one of them 5 contrary to the loanable funds theory finance in the world of keynes and minsky precedes investment and saving highlighting the loanable funds fallacy keynes wrote in the process of capital formation 1939 increased investment will always be accompanied by increased saving but it can never be preceded by it dishoarding and credit expansion provides not an alternative to increased saving but a necessary preparation for it it is the parent not the twin of increased saving what is forgotten in the loanable funds theory is the insight that finance in all its different shapes has its own dimension and if taken seriously its effect on an analysis must modify the whole theoretical system and not just be added as an unsystematic appendage finance is fundamental to our understanding of modern economies and acting like the baker s apprentice who having forgotten to add yeast to the dough throws it into the oven afterwards simply isn t enough all real economic activities nowadays depend on a functioning financial machinery but institutional arrangements states of confidence fundamental uncertainties asymmetric expectations the banking system financial intermediation loan granting processes default risks liquidity constraints aggregate debt cash flow fluctuations etc etc things that play decisive roles in channelling money savings credit are more or less left in the dark in modern formalizations of the loanable funds theory it should be emphasized that the equality between savings and investment will be valid under all circumstances in particular it will be independent of the level of the rate of interest which was customarily considered in economic theory to be the factor equilibrating the demand for and supply of new capital in the present conception investment once carried out automatically provides the savings necessary to finance it indeed in our simplified model profits in a given period are the direct outcome of capitalists consumption and investment in that period if investment increases by a certain amount savings out of profits are pro tanto higher one i...
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