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positive or negative outcomes from raising the minimum wage depending on the circumstances welfare and labor market participation edit this section may be too technical for most readers to understand please help improve it to make it understandable to non experts without removing the technical details september 2022 learn how and when to remove this message assume that the decision to participate in the labor market results from a trade off between being an unemployed job seeker and not participating at all all individuals whose expected utility outside the labor market is less than the expected utility of an unemployed person v u displaystyle v_ u decide to participate in the labor market in the basic search and matching model the expected utility of unemployed persons v u displaystyle v_ u and that of employed persons v e displaystyle v_ e are defined by r v e w q v u v e r v u z θ m θ v e v u displaystyle begin aligned rv_ e w q v_ u v_ e rv_ u z theta m theta v_ e v_ u end aligned let w displaystyle w be the wage r displaystyle r the interest rate z displaystyle z the instantaneous income of unemployed persons q displaystyle q the exogenous job destruction rate θ displaystyle theta the labor market tightness and θ m θ displaystyle theta m theta the job finding rate the profits π e displaystyle pi _ e and π v displaystyle pi _ v expected from a filled job and a vacant one are r π e y w q π v π e r π v h m θ π e π v displaystyle r pi _ e y w q pi _ v pi _ e quad r pi _ v h m theta pi _ e pi _ v where h displaystyle h is the cost of a vacant job and y displaystyle y is the productivity when the free entry condition π v 0 displaystyle pi _ v 0 is satisfied these two equalities yield the following relationship between the wage w displaystyle w and labor market tightness θ displaystyle theta part of a series on organized labor movement timeline cooperative movement mutualist movement new unionism proletarian internationalism progressivism social movement unionism 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rate α θ m θ displaystyle alpha theta m theta a hike in the minimum wage reduces the profitability of a job so firms post fewer vacancies and the job finding rate falls now let s rewrite r v u displaystyle rv_ u to be r v u r q z θ m θ w r q θ m θ displaystyle rv_ u r q z theta m theta w over r q theta m theta using the relationship between the wage and labor market tightness to eliminate the wage from the last equation gives us r v u θ m θ y r q z θ r q h r q θ m θ displaystyle rv_ u theta m theta y r q z theta r q h over r q theta m theta by maximizing r v u displaystyle rv_ u in this equation with respect to the labor market tightness it follows that 1 η θ y z r q η θ θ m θ h m θ displaystyle 1 eta theta y z over r q eta theta theta m theta h over m theta where η θ displaystyle eta theta is the elasticity of the matching function η θ θ m θ m θ θ d d θ log m θ displaystyle eta theta theta m theta over m theta equiv theta d over d theta log m theta this result shows that the expected utility of unemployed workers is maximized when the minimum wage is set at a level that corresponds to the wage level of the decentralized economy in which the bargaining power parameter is equal to the elasticity η θ displaystyle eta theta the level of the negotiated wage is w displaystyle w if w w displaystyle w w then an increase in the minimum wage increases participation and the unemployment rate with an ambiguous impact on employment when the bargaining power of workers is less than η θ displaystyle eta theta an increase in the minimum wage improves the welfare of the unemployed this suggests that minimum wage hikes can improve labor market efficiency at least up to the point when bargaining power equals η θ displaystyle eta theta job search effort edit this section may be too technical for most readers to understand please help improve it to make it understandable to non experts without removing the technical details september 2022 learn how and when to remove this message in the model just presented the minimum wage always increases unemployment this result does not necessarily hold when workers search effort is endogenous consider a model where the intensity of the job search is designated by the scalar ϵ displaystyle epsilon which can be interpreted as the amount of time and or intensity of the effort devoted to search assume that the arrival rate of job offers is α ϵ displaystyle alpha epsilon and that the wage distribution is degenerated to a single wage w displaystyle w denote φ ϵ displaystyle varphi epsilon to be the cost arising from the search effort with φ 0 φ 0 displaystyle varphi 0 varphi 0 then the discounted utilities are given by r v e w q v u v e r v u max ϵ z φ ϵ α ϵ v e v u displaystyle begin aligned rv_ e w q v_ u v_ e rv_ u max _ epsilon z varphi epsilon alpha epsilon v_ e v_ u end aligned therefore the optimal search effort is such that the marginal cost of performing the search is equation to the marginal return φ ϵ α v e v u displaystyle varphi epsilon alpha v_ e v_ u this implies that the optimal search effort increases as the difference between the expected utility of the job holder and the expected utility of the job seeker grows in fact this difference actually grows with the wage to see this take the difference of the two discounted utilities to find r q v e v u w max ϵ z φ ϵ α ϵ v e v u displaystyle r q v_ e v_ u w max _ epsilon left z varphi epsilon alpha epsilon v_ e v_ u right then differentiating with respect to w displaystyle w and rearranging gives us d d w v e v u 1 r q α ϵ 0 displaystyle d over dw v_ e v_ u 1 over r q alpha epsilon 0 where ϵ displaystyle epsilon is the optimal search effort this implies that a wage increase drives up job search effort and therefore the job finding rate additionally the unemployment rate u displaystyle u at equilibrium is given by u q q α ϵ displaystyle u q over q alpha epsilon a hike in the wage which increases the search effort and the job finding rate decreases the unemployment rate so it is possible that a hike in the minimum wage may by boosting job seekers search effort increase employment taken together with the previous section the minimum wage in labor markets with frictions can increase employment and reduce the unemployment rate when it is sufficiently low however a high minimum wage is detrimental to employment and increases the unemployment rate empirical studies edit estimated minimum wage effects on employment from a meta study of 64 other studies showed insignificant employment effect both practically and statistically from minimum wage raises the most precise estimates were heavily clustered at or near zero employment effects elasticity 0 72 economists disagree as to the impact of minimum wages on employment empirical studies usually estimate the elasticity of employment with respect to the minimum wage level this is done by dividing the estimated causal effect on employment rate by the percentage change in the minimum wage economists have done empirical studies on different aspects of the minimum wage including 27 employment effects the most frequently studied aspect effects on the distribution of wages and earnings among low paid and higher paid workers effects on the distribution of incomes among low income and higher income families effects on the skills of workers through job training and the deferring of work to acquire education effects on prices and profits effects on on the job training until the mid 1990s a consensus existed among economists both conservative and liberal that the minimum wage reduced employment especially among younger and low skill workers 14 in addition to the basic supply demand intuition there were some empirical studies that supported this view for example edward gramlich in 1976 found that many of the benefits went to higher income families and that teenagers were made worse off by the unemployment associated with the minimum wage 73 brown et al 1983 noted that to that point time series studies had found that a 10 percent increase in the minimum wage was associated with a 1 3 percent decrease in teenage employment however the studies found wider variation from 0 to over 3 percent in their estimates for the effect on teenage unemployment teenagers without a job and looking for one in contrast to the simple supply and demand diagram it was commonly found that teenagers withdrew from the labor force in response to the minimum wage which produced the possibility of equal reductions in the supply as well as the demand for labor at a higher minimum wage and hence no impact on the unemployment rate using a variety of specifications of the employment and unemployment equations using ordinary least squares vs generalized least squares regression procedures and linear vs logarithmic specifications they found that a 10 percent increase in the minimum wage caused a 1 percent decrease in teenage employment and no change in the teenage unemployment rate the study also found a small but statistically significant increase in unemployment among adults aged 20 24 74 cbo table illustrating projections of the effects of minimum wage increases on employment and income under two scenarios wellington 1991 updated brown et al s research with data through 1986 to provide new estimates encompassing a period when the real i e inflation adjusted value of the minimum wage was declining because it had not increased since 1981 she found that a 10 increase in the minimum wage decreased absolute teenage employment by 0 6 with no effect on the teen or young adult unemployment rates 75 some research suggests that other factors dominate the unemployment effects of small increases in the minimum wage 76 in florida where voters approved an increase in 2004 a follow up comprehensive study after the increase confirmed a strong economy with increased employment above previous years in florida and better than in the us as a whole 77 when it comes to on the job training some believe the increase in wages is taken out of training expenses a 2001 empirical study found that there is no evidence that minimum wages reduce training and little evidence that they tend to increase training 78 the economist wrote in december 2013 a minimum wage providing it is not set too high could thus boost pay with no ill effects on jobs america s federal minimum wage at 38 of median income is one of the rich world s lowest some studies find no harm to employment from federal or state minimum wages others see a small one but none finds any serious damage high minimum wages however particularly in rigid labour markets do appear to hit employment france has the rich world s highest wage floor at more than 60 of the median for adults and a far bigger fraction of the typical wage for the young this helps explain why france also has shockingly high rates of youth unemployment 26 for 15 to 24 year olds 79 a 2019 study in the quarterly journal of economics found that minimum wage increases did not affect the overall number of low wage jobs in the five years following the wage increase however it did find disemployment in tradable sectors defined as those sectors most reliant on entry level or low skilled labor 80 a 2018 study published by the university of california agrees with the study in the quarterly journal of economics it finds that minimum wages actually lead to fewer jobs for low skilled workers the article discusses a trade off for low to high skilled workers when the minimum wage is increased gdp is more heavily redistributed toward high academia jobs 81 in another study which shared authors with the above published in the american economic review found that a large and persistent increase in the minimum wage in hungary produced some disemployment with the large majority of additional cost being passed on to consumers the authors also found that firms began substituting capital for labor over time 82 david card and alan krueger edit in 1992 the minimum wage in new jersey increased from 4 25 to 5 05 per hour an 18 8 increase while in the adjacent state of pennsylvania it remained at 4 25 david card and alan krueger gathered information on fast food restaurants in new jersey and eastern pennsylvania in an attempt to see what effect this increase had on employment within new jersey via a difference in differences model a basic supply and demand model predicts that relative employment should have decreased in new jersey card and krueger surveyed employers before the april 1992 new jersey increase and again in november december 1992 asking managers for data on the full time equivalent staff level of their restaurants both times 83 based on data from the employers responses the authors concluded that the increase in the minimum wage slightly increased employment in the new jersey restaurants 83 card and krueger expanded on this initial article in their 1995 book myth and measurement the new economics of the minimum wage 84 they argued that the negative empl...
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