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description= 15 posts published by Lars Syll during August 2022;
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as hilary putnam rightfully noticed in the collapse of the fact value dichotomy harvard university press 2002 it s doubtful if it even qualifies as a real philosophy it cannot be the case that the only universally valid norm refers solely to discourse it is after all possible for someone to recognize truth telling as a binding norm while otherwise being guided solely by enlightened egoism this is indeed the way of life that was recommended by the influential if amateurish philosophizer i cannot call her a philosopher ayn rand but such a person can violate the spirit if not the letter of the principle of communicative action at every turn after all communicative action is contrasted with manipulation and as such a person can manipulate people without violating the maxims of sincerity truth telling and saying only what one believes to be rationally warranted ayn rand s capitalist heroes manipulated people all the time even if she didn t consider it manipulation via their control of capital for example indeed the person who says do what i want or i ll shoot you need not be violating any maxim concerned solely with discourse but it would be a mistake to use such examples as objections to habermasian discourse ethics in her diary from 1928 ayn rand approvingly quotes a statement made by william edward hickman what is good for me is right rand is enthusiastic and writes the best and strongest expression of a real man s psychology i have heard later she models one of her heroes danny renahan after hickman renahan is portrayed as born with a wonderful free light consciousness resulting from the absolute lack of social instinct or herd feeling he does not understand because he has no organ for understanding the necessity meaning or importance of other people other people do not exist for him and he does not understand why they should who was this hickman that so inspired rand hickman was a notorious bank robber child kidnapper and mass murderer one of the most hated and heinous criminals in u s history how people like alan greenspan and paul ryan not to mention all modern day objectivist disciples can consider ayn rand one of the greatest thinkers of the 20th century is beyond comprehension it s sickening share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky mill s methods of causal inference student stuff 29 aug 2022 at 10 40 posted in theory of science methodology comments off on mill s methods of causal inference student stuff as we all know r a fisher was not too happy about mill s method of difference since it according to him built on the impossible requirement of being able to compare identical units under different circumstances fisher instead favoured the experimental method of randomized treatment assignment but if you cannot assign treatment randomly as in most observational studies there is much that supports mill s method of difference for making causal inferences share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky svensk inflationsberäkning rena skämtet 28 aug 2022 at 19 14 posted in economics comments off on svensk inflationsberäkning rena skämtet den andra saken som framgår tydligt vid en titt på statistiken är vad som saknas i kpi prisuppgången på bostäder posten boende står visserligen för hela 25 procent av indexet kostnaden har sedan mellan 1996 och 2021 stigit med drygt 40 procent vänta nu här säger alla som tillbringat mer än fem minuter pà sajten hemnet de senaste 15 åren är det inte en alleles for låg siffra visst är det så det genomsnittliga kvadratmeterpriset på bostadsrätter i sverige har enligt svensk mäklarstatistik stigit med 800 procent mellan 1996 och 2021 villapriserna har ökat med 435 procent och i stockholm med 550 procent visar statistik från scb varför har inte detta drivit upp inflationen den enkla förklaringen är att priset på den enskilt största affären i de flesta människors liv bostaden inte ingår i kpi det som räknas med är hyror avgifter och räntekostnader för bostadsrätter samt drifts och räntekostnader för villor samtidigt som stigande bostadspriser ersatt vädret som det kanske vanligaste samtalsämnet svenskar emellan och lett till att hushållen dragit på sig några tusen miljarder i bolån är det alltså en icke fràga för scb vid beräkning av inflationen och därmed för riksbanken när den sätter sin ränta share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky hegel wenn der geist aufs ganze geht 28 aug 2022 at 08 26 posted in politics society comments off on hegel wenn der geist aufs ganze geht georg wilhelm friedrich hegel ist unbestritten einer der wichtigsten philosophischen denker der neuzeit aber 250 jahre nach der geburt des deutschen philosophen kann man sich fragen was bleibt von hegel wer war er was wollte er und wie würde er unsere gegenwart und zukunft fassen share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky history of econometric causality 26 aug 2022 at 12 53 posted in statistics econometrics 2 comments share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky randomization strategies student stuff 26 aug 2022 at 12 07 posted in statistics econometrics comments off on randomization strategies student stuff share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky brauchen wir eine übergewinnsteuer 25 aug 2022 at 14 08 posted in economics comments off on brauchen wir eine übergewinnsteuer share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky economics as ideology 25 aug 2022 at 11 26 posted in economics comments off on economics as ideology tax cuts for the wealthy were supposed to stimulate growth and make everyone better off there was dispute about this within the profession but there were also many economists who provided intellectual support for the claim that tax cuts will create growth and widespread prosperity the evidence from the bush and reagan tax cuts does not support this claim but it is still made by some economists and this gives those who are serving wealthy interests or who want to force government to shrink by starving it of revenue the cover they need for their arguments we do need more humility about what we do and do not know more willingness to change our minds when the evidence disagrees with our favorite theoretical model and the willingness to acknowledge disagreement within the profession but most of all we need to take a strong stand against those inside and outside the profession who misuse economic theory and empirical results for political and ideological purposes mark thoma you never hear anyone at our seminars telling the lecturer that the assumptions on which his models are built are only made for ideological reasons but that does not necessarily mean whether on the surface or not that academic analysis is judged on its merits what it means is that we have a catechism that no one dares to question and that catechism has become hegemonic for particular reasons one of which may very well be of an ideological nature when the neoclassical theory was developed in the late 19th century one of the reasons was that some economists e g böhm bawerk thought that the ricardian labour value tradition had become too radical and could be used as a dangerous weapon in the class struggle marginalism was explicitly seen as a way to counter that even though some economists seem to think that facts are bound to win in the end yours truly begs to differ take the rational expectations assumption rational expectations in the mainstream economists world imply that relevant distributions have to be time independent this amounts to assuming that an economy is like a closed system with known stochastic probability distributions for all different events in reality it is straining one s beliefs to try to represent economies as outcomes of stochastic processes an existing economy is a single realization tout court and hardly conceivable as one realisation out of an ensemble of economy worlds since an economy can hardly be conceived as being completely replicated over time it is to say the least very difficult to see any similarity between these modelling assumptions and the expectations of real persons in the world of the rational expectations hypothesis we are never disappointed in any other way than as when we lose at the roulette wheels but real life is not an urn or a roulette wheel and that s also the reason why allowing for cases where agents make predictable errors in dsge models doesn t take us any closer to a relevant and realist depiction of actual economic decisions and behaviours rigorous and precise dsge models cannot be considered anything else than unsubstantiated conjectures as long as they aren t supported by evidence from outside the theory or model to my knowledge no in any way decisive empirical evidence has been presented so given this lack of empirical evidence why do mainstream economists still stick to using these kinds of theories and models building on blatantly ridiculous assumptions well one reason i would argue is of an ideological nature those models and the assumptions they build on standardly have a neoliberal or market friendly bias i guess that is also one of the ideological reasons those models and theories are so dear to many chicago economists and new keynesian macroeconomists share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky synthetic control methods student stuff 24 aug 2022 at 16 27 posted in statistics econometrics comments off on synthetic control methods student stuff share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky my first love personal 21 aug 2022 at 17 21 posted in varia comments off on my first love personal john miles 1949 2021 r i p share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky causal inference methods 21 aug 2022 at 11 24 posted in statistics econometrics comments off on causal inference methods share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky science and crossword solving 20 aug 2022 at 16 03 posted in theory of science methodology 1 comment the model is not how one determines the soundness or otherwise of a mathematical proof it is rather how one determines the reasonableness or otherwise of entries in a crossword puzzle the crossword model permits pervasive mutual support rather than like the model of a mathematical proof encouraging an essentially one directional conception how reasonable one s confidence is that a certain entry in a crossword is correct depends on how much support is given to this entry by the clue and any intersecting entries that have already been filled in how reasonable independently of the entry in question one s confidence is that those other already filled in entries are correct and how many of the intersecting entries have been filled in yours truly an avid crossword solver himself can t but agree in inference to the best explanation we start with a body of purported data facts evidence and search for explanations that can account for these data facts evidence having the best explanation means that you given the context dependent background assumptions have a satisfactory explanation that can explain the evidence better than any other competing explanation and so it is reasonable to consider the hypothesis to be true even if we inevitably do not have deductive certainty our reasoning gives us a license to consider our belief in the hypothesis as reasonable accepting a hypothesis means that you believe it does explain the available evidence better than any other competing hypothesis knowing that we after having earnestly considered and analyzed the other available potential explanations have been able to eliminate the competing potential explanations warrants and enhances the confidence we have that our preferred explanation is the best explanation i e the explanation that provides us given it is true with the greatest understanding this of course does not in any way mean that we cannot be wrong of course we can inferences to the best explanation are fallible inferences since the premises do not logically entail the conclusion so from a logical point of view inference to the best explanation is a weak mode of inference but if the arguments put forward are strong enough they can be warranted and give us justified true belief and hence knowledge even though they are fallible inferences as scientists we sometimes much like crossword solvers and detectives experience disillusion we thought that we had reached a strong conclusion by ruling out the alternatives in the set of contrasting explanations but what we thought was true turned out to be false that does not necessarily mean that we had no good reasons for believing what we believed if we cannot live with that contingency and uncertainty well then we are in the wrong business if it is deductive certainty you are after rather than the ampliative and defeasible reasoning in inference to the best explanation well then get into math or logic not science what i do not believe and this has been suggested is that we can usefully lay down some hard and fast rules of evidence that must be obeyed before we accept cause and effect none of my viewpoints can bring indisputable evidence for or against the cause and effect hypothesis and none can be required as a sine qua non what they can do with greater or less strength is to help us to make up our minds on the fundamental question is there any other way of explaining the set of facts before us is there any other answer equally or more likely than cause and effect austin bradford hill share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky econometrics the danger of calling your pet cat a dog 19 aug 2022 at 13 24 posted in statistics econometrics comments off on econometrics the danger of calling your pet cat a dog the assumption of additivity and linearity means that the outcome variable is in reality linearly related to any predictors and that if you have several predictors then their combined effect is best described by adding their effects together this assumption is the most important because if it is not true then even if all other assumptions are met your model is invalid because you have described it incorrectly it s a bit like calling y...
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