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s it had proved a great success so far with the bar splitting the room into 2 sections it looks like the smoke free part should stay fairly clear the pub does good british style food so it will be much improved without someone puffing away right next to us i know i ll be more likely to pop in for a drink and a bite to eat thanks john posted by james annan at sunday february 05 2006 0 comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest friday february 03 2006 woohoo our latest paper was just accepted by grl i think the contents may be of general interest so i ll be blogging about it some time soon when i m less tired and emotional those who are interested in the meantime will find it on my work web page posted by james annan at friday february 03 2006 12 comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest thursday february 02 2006 probability prediction and verification v commotion in the comments well having posted what i thought was an interesting but essentially uncontentious discussion of bayesian and frequentist approaches to probability i was rather surprised to see the reaction in the comments i m going to pick primarily on wolfgang at first because he has given his opinions most explicitly which exposes the inconsistencies most clearly from what i can glean of their comments i think the others are displaying similarly inconsistent attitudes however he starts out in physics statements about probability makes sense in two cases i quantum theory ii systems where we do not know the initial state exactly in all cases we must be confident about the theory kinematics and dynamic otherwise the use of probability is misleading probability is not a good replacement for missing or wrong theories your example of the prime number illustrates this very well i could perhaps quibble over exactly what is meant by we do not know the initial state exactly but this looks like it is at least trying to be a fundamentally frequentist position fine if that s what he really wants but later on i pose the following problem in the comments to cip s post nb the electron neutrino is just some arbitrary poorly known particle i am assuming the wikipedia page is reasonably valid when it says its mass is thought to lie between 0 1ev and 2 5ev but note that even this statement is only meaningful in a bayesian worldview say you are trying to measure the mass of the electron neutrino one possible experiment costs 1 million and would work down to 0 5ev another possible experiment would cost 10 million but would work to 0 1ev you have other demands on the money do you consider there is any information in the above that can help you choose one experiment rather than the other do you consider that questions along the lines of how likely do i think it is that the mass of the neutrino is less that 0 5ev are even legitimate in the first place or do you simply reject that as an ill posed question if that is the case how do you actually make the decision in practice if the cost of the second experiment were 1 1 or 100 million would your decision change after some prompting wolfgang replied that if you have reason to believe that the neutrino mass is in the range m 0 1 2 5ev you can calculate probabilities this is because you have different scenarios m 0 11 m 0 21 etc which are all consistent and compatibel with what you know but this is precisely espousing the bayesian attitude that he rejected previously so it seems that he s a bayesian without realising it or perhaps a bayesian depending on how he feels at the time he has not yet explained how he would calculate these probabilities or what they could possibly mean in a frequentist world cip makes similarly odd noises in his posts here and here he says subjective plausibility makes my skin crawl i have no idea what the hell it is supposed to mean i can t think of any case when an expressed probability isn t either based on an explicit or implicit frequentist interpretation or else like mr spock s invariably misguided predictions merely an ignorant prejudice but has so far ducked my question about the electron neutrino there were other various comments along vaguely similar lines i think that some of these people don t actually understand how the bayesian and frequentist views of probability actually differ i ll try to explain further with a simple example i have a max min thermometer in my garden which i reset each day it measures the max and min and let s assume that i know that the error on each day s measurement is well characterised as a standard gaussian deviate ie a sample from n 0 1 this morning i went out and saw that the min from the last night was 5c what is the probability that the actual minimum was below 5c most people will instinctively answer that the probability is 50 reasoning that the error is just as likely to be positive as negative most people would be wrong the probability depends on the prior distribution before you looked at the thermometer this is an unavoidable consequence of how bayes theorem works the posterior is equal to the prior multiplied by the likelihood of the true temperature given the observation those who do not understand this will repeatedly get themselves into trouble when discussing probabilistic estimation to those who insist that 50 is the right answer consider this situation say i know that the record low temperature ever recorded in my town of which my garden is representative is 4c will i still believe that there is a 50 chance that last night s temperature was below 5c of course not temperature records are virtually never broken by such a large margin in this case my prior probability density function has its mean and the bulk of its support above 5c so even after measuring 5c the posterior mean is above 5c even with a less extreme example say the record low is 6c but the typical february daily minimum temperature is 1c a rational bayesian will still probably based on the info supplied conclude that the temperature was probably warmer than 5c the naive frequentists will say that they can interpret this in a frequentist sense consider sampling the temperature each day and on those days when you see a temperature of 5c was it warmer or colder but what distribution do you sample your days from statistics for every day in the last 30 years every february in the last 30 years every february 2nd when there had been rain on the previous day as was the case this time note that if you actually sample from the finite population you can never assing a non zero probability to breaking any record and more generally you can never assign a non zero probability to any state you have not already observed so you have to make some subjective ugh decisions about how to define a sensible continuous prior distribution is it gaussian weibull spline through the histogram of data and you have to make subjective ugh decisions about which historical data you base your distribution on and then you perform some hypothetical thought experiment in which days are drawn at random from this subjective ugh and hypothetical prior distribution and this is precisely the bayesian paradigm in the above example the whole concept of probability is only valid to a frequentist when the prior distribution is given a priori groan for example if we sample the feb daily min temperature from a particular pdf f and then measure this temperature with error as stated before then if the temperature measurement is 5c what is the probability that the sampled temperature is less than 5c any frequentist or bayesian can answer that question easily and correctly but i did not define the prior in the prior version groan again i just asked for the probability a bayesian has to and is prepared to choose a reasonable prior and realises that his answer is not an objective statement of the true probability but a somewhat subjective one contingent on the prior he chose a competent frequentist will say the question has no meaning without a clearly defined prior a naive frequentist will probably provide an answer like the original 50 without even realising that they are implicitly making an assumption of a particular and likely unrealistic prior which category are you in posted by james annan at thursday february 02 2006 40 comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest female on throne could marry foreigner hiranuma warns i shouldn t be too hard on the japanese for this because of course every country has its share of reactionary bigots if aiko becomes the reigning empress and gets involved with a blue eyed foreigner while studying abroad and marries him their child may be the emperor hiranuma told about 40 lawmakers academics and supporters at a tokyo hall we should never let that happen this is nothing more than misogyny dressed up in the apparently more aceptable clothes of racism it s always been the case that a male emperor could marry a foreigner so there seems no obvious reason why this should afect the female empress question in fact the current crown prince met his wife while studying abroad at oxford it s doubly bizarre because not only does the japanese royal family already have korean blood in it but there have also been a couple of female empresses too of course all this was back in feudal times and to some people such ideas are clearly inappropriate in the 21st century posted by james annan at thursday february 02 2006 4 comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest wednesday february 01 2006 the ravage of the planet 2006 this is the title of a scientific conference later this year i ll let the introductory blurb speak for itself the state of our planet continues to deteriorate at an alarming rate we have arrived at a situation where we need to determine urgent solutions before we reach a point of irreversible deterioration our current civilisation has fallen into a self destructive process by which natural resources are consumed at an increasing rate this process has now spread across the planet in search of further sources of energy and materials the aggressiveness of this quest is such that the future of our planet is in the balance the problem is compounded by the pernicious effect of the resulting pollution further details on this website the ravage of the planet 2006 i m especially impressed to note that the predominantly european organisers turned down the choice of numerous local ravaged sites like milton keynes or runcorn that would have been inappropriately modern and unnatural instead going for the hair shirt option of the unspoil ecosystem of patagonia as their conference venue no doubt they ll all be paddling there in dugout canoes posted by james annan at wednesday february 01 2006 0 comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest slash and burn the bad news about the uk s centre for ecology and hydrology got a mention on pm s question time today might not be on listen again for a few hours but as an alternative here s the nerc press release i m surprised this story hasn t popped up previously in the blogosphere where was stoat it concerns an outrageously audacious slash and burn by the new nerc chief executive to wipe out up to half of the uk s research capability in this area oh nerc natural environment research council ie the main governmental funding agency in this area with a ukp300million annual budget ceh is one of these virtual centres that have been increasingly fashionable in the uk in recent years it doesn t exist as a physical entity but is an administrative and scientific concept currently linking 9 sites across the uk but no more as 4 of them are planned for closure and the admin department which was separately located is moving too about 1 3 of the 600 staff are likely to lose their jobs that s a significant chunk of the uk s environmental science community according to the newspaper reports this ukp45million plan is expected to save ukp1million a year it s clearly not an economically justifiable decision but instead forms part of nerc s long term strategy to divest itself of any in house capability for research it s no secret that nerc intends to become a purely administrative funding body that contracts out its research to universities that s more responsive because they don t have any long term liabilities such as tenured staff or lab facilities to worry about of course it also means that national research capabilities are increasingly fragile and disintegrated and it pretty much kills morale and productivity for however long the process takes disclosure i m a former employee of the nerc pol lab where similar athough less extreme events played out several years ago posted by james annan at wednesday february 01 2006 3 comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest newer posts older posts home subscribe to posts atom featured post no terence mills does not believe his forecast another day another bit of clickbait climate sceptic trash in the times hidden behind a paywall which saves you from having to read it recipient of the woody guthrie award followers total pageviews popular posts a sensitive matter so sensitivity has been in the climate blogosphere a bit recently just a few days ago that odd norwegian press release got some people his transgression cannot be condoned regardless of his motives in the latest eos oh and also here on the web the success of the scientific enterprise depends on intellectual rigor sic truthfulne more on that recent sensitivity paper now i m embarrassed at my naivety it is all as clear as day the story goes as follows way back in the mists of time well about the bet final outcome you may be wondering what had happened with this as you will recall some time ago i arranged a bet with two russian solar scientists who climate sensitivity is 3c plus or minus a little bit 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