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description= 4 posts published by Reidar Visser during December 2006;
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iraq, and, for, the, gulf, analysis, archive, december, 2006, archives, categories, meta, my, latest, book, on, amazon, com, twitter, updates, subscribe, recent, posts, timetabled, conditional, surge, strategy, dealing, with, sadrists, study, group, regionalisation, not, balkanisation, federalism, from, below, in, some, historical, comparative, reflections,
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the (697), and (205), for (116), that (114), iraq (100), iraqi (85), with (75), this (65), from (59), would (58), #federalism (45), but (42), was (39), their (38), iqlim (37), some (32), are (32), 2006 (31), has (30), referendum (29), have (28), two (28), not (28), one (27), more (26), may (26), process (24), spain (24), which (24), new (24), regions (24), there (23), had (23), etherington (23), federal (22), regional (22), should (22), politicians (22), level (21), about (21), all (21), even (21), december (21), also (20), such (20), region (20), governorates (20), been (20), any (20), janub (20), united (20), shiite (19), could (19), constitution (18), local (18), political (18), government (18), states (18), surge (18), national (17), sadrists (17), law (16), autonomy (16), into (16), pre (16), governorate (16), were (16), policy (16), other (15), point (15), can (15), many (15), initiative (15), basra (15), poll (15), october (15), its (15), initiatives (15), what (15), they (15), sadrist (15), below (14), will (14), federalisation (14), wasat (14), might (14), issues (13), 2005 (13), today (13), june (13), time (13), 2008 (13), 2010 (13), 2013 (13), these (12), areas (12), current (12), scale (12), most (12), april (12), only (12), forces (12), washington (12), january (12), 2014 (12), 2007 (12), 2009 (12), 2011 (12), 2012 (12), like (11), constitutional (11), under (11), majority (11), than (11), middle (11), najaf (11), baghdad (11), between (11), september (11), kind (11), february (11), situation (11), november (11), august (11), report (10), without (10), administrative (10), politics (10), 2004 (10), state (10), spanish (10), well (10), rafidayn (10), case (10), perhaps (10), south (10), march (10), support (10), same (10), make (10), pro (10), wasit (10), general (10), security (10), reconciliation (10), war (10), control (9), small (9), through (9), whereas (9), far (9), how (9), very (9), those (9), international (9), particular (9), iraqis (9), turn 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s federal units can refer to long experiences of administrative separateness only kurdistan and possibly the projected small scale region of the south known as iqlim al janub basra maysan and dhi qar the old ottoman vilayet of basra exhibit anything remotely comparable to this in iraq 6 kurdistan s special position on this score was recognised through the enshrinement of kurdish autonomy in the iraqi constitution a parallel to the spanish recognition of long standing self rule demands through the fast track route to autonomy in article 151 of the 1978 constitution but in the iraqi case done in classic top down style throughout the rest of iraq historically there has been unity and subordination to baghdad for long periods 7 thus some of today s schemes such as the project of a nine province region of the centre and the south iqlim al wasat wa al janub do not correspond to any substantial historical precedent 8 of course this in itself is no argument against the legitimacy of these projects modern voluntaristic federal entities may be just as successful as historical ones in spain creations like cantabria and la rioja were ridiculed for their alleged artificiality but one might also turn that logic on its head and argue that creativity may indeed be necessary to break centralist hegemonies of the past but the point about historical endurance is worth bearing in mind when it comes to dangers of political instability and it is one which the protagonists of the modern regions should heed so as to secure the safest possible transition to federalism for their citizens this is doubly important because of the extremely low thresholds for initiating and repeating referendum initiatives under the iraqi system something which makes the entire process even less predictable than was the case in spain possible problems in the new iraqi law on implementing federalism these general observations on the limits of existing models of federalism from below are relevant to analyses of the new legal framework for implementing federalism in iraq adopted on 11 october 2006 and in particular to discussions of possible complications that may arise once that law is put into practice one remarkable feature of the iraqi discussion of this legislation project is that very little of what has been said has been based on readings of the actual text adopted indeed for a long time it has been almost impossible for the general public to obtain copies of the considerably modified version of the law that was agreed on after an original draft had been introduced on 26 september 9 this in itself suggests that the public debate on the subject cannot be considered to have been truly exhaustive there are apparently several grey areas in the iraqi law on the implementation of federalism they include subjects such as the procedure for defining the referendum parameters in the case of mutually conflicting federalism visions for the same area if say some in najaf wish to become part of a three governorate middle euphrates entity whereas others favour a larger nine governorate all shiite super region here the law does not go into much detail beyond a single keyword istibyan or a governorate level poll to determine which particular alternative should be put to the test in a referendum similarly it is unclear to what extent there is any timeline for the start of the race once the law has entered into effect in april 2008 if someone in amara requests a referendum on day one is there any deadline for others to submit a challenge and thereby prompt a pre referendum poll within the governorate 10 perhaps most problematic of all is the question of how to proceed in case several incompatible autonomy initiatives are launched and successfully survive the poll pre selection process basra citizens may decide for a referendum on a uni governorate basra region residents of maysan may come out in favour of a vote on a slightly larger region of the south involving basra and dhi qar as well the people of dhi qar in turn may want to give a chance to the idea unifying all the shiite communities northwards to karbala except that the inhabitants of babel may want a referendum on a small scale middle euphrates region while those of wasit and karbala may not be enthusiastic about federalism at all and could fail to produce federal initiatives that would satisfy the minimum legal requirements perhaps the people of diyala and other areas with strong iraqi nationalist traditions might decide to take a pro active stance to the challenge of decentralisation by introducing a surprise nationalist federalist project a region of mesopotamia iqlim al rafidayn stretching all the way from basra to mosul and with the potential to put a stop to what could otherwise become an endless string of autonomy bids this is all theory and hypotheses but it is clear that a considerable mess as shown in table 1 can emerge at the poll level even before any referendum is held table 1 simulation of possible outcomes of pre referendum polls istibyans under the new iraqi law for implementing federalism governorate available alternatives see also note 11 winner of pre referendum poll or sole initiative launched basra iqlim al janub iqlim al wasat wa al janub iqlim al basra iqlim al rafidayn iqlim al basra maysan iqlim al janub iqlim al janub dhi qar iqlim al janub iqlim al wasat wa al janub iqlim al wasat wa al janub muthanna iqlim al wasat wa al janub iqlim al wasat wa al janub wasit iqlim al wasat wa al janub iqlim al rafidayn neither initiative reaches threshold qadisiyya iqlim al wasat wa al janub iqlim al furat al awsat iqlim al wasat wa al janub babel iqlim al wasat wa al janub iqlim al furat al awsat iqlim al furat al awsat najaf iqlim al wasat wa al janub iqlim al najaf iqlim al wasat wa al janub karbala iqlim al wasat wa al janub initiative fails to reach threshold diyala iqlim al rafidayn initiative fails to reach threshold salahaddin iqlim al rafidayn initiative fails to reach threshold anbar no initiative nineve iqlim al rafidayn iqlim al rafidayn kirkuk iqlim al rafidayn iqlim al rafidayn at least two very different scenarios can be inferred from this theoretical example one alternative would be for all the referendums to go ahead on the basis of their original formulas even as voters in najaf and muthanna would know perfectly well that some of the governorates listed in their preferred nine governorate scheme would be barred from joining their entity because in those governorates a different and mutually exclusive small scale regionalist vision had triumphed in the local pre referendum poll a possible result might be the further fragmentation of the large scale federalist project with majorities in relatively poor qadisiyya muthanna and dhi qar voting in favour but with najaf voters changing their minds and saving their vote for a uni governorate federal entity at some future stage the outcome would be a mix of uni governorate entities rump regions consisting of remnants of large scale projects that failed to acquire support in all of their targeted governorates and a rump iraq without devolution to the regional level map 2 left map 2 left rump iraq with remnants of partially successful regions right rump iraq with uni governorate and small scale regions formed on the basis of pre referendum elimination polls an alternative method would be to take more seriously the concerns of the voters there is little point in staging a referendum for a project if its infeasibility is implicitly acknowledged ahead of the vote as a result of the rise of incompatible schemes in one or more of the targeted governorates accordingly should a situation arise along the aforementioned lines with mutual incompatibility between the various proposed schemes it would make sense to ask voters to restate their preferences in light of the new realities in a second pre referendum poll to be workable this kind of elimination race would require coordination and indeed synchronisation between governorates in such a poll wealthy and autonomy minded governorates like najaf might elect to recast themselves as uni governorate regionalists thereby repeating the problem of exclusion on a smaller scale vis à vis poorer provinces like neighbouring babel qadisiyya and muthanna who might still wish to pursue a second amalgamation bid this time on a smaller scale as a middle euphrates region najaf s desire to go it alone would then perhaps impact on popular sentiment in the remaining euphrates governorates during a third pre referendum poll babel and qadisiyya might conceivably agree on a joint two governorate project leaving muthanna out in the cold the end result with this kind of procedure would be a combination of small scale regions uni governorate regions and a rump iraq of anti federalists and governorates excluded during the initial poll rounds map 2 right potential areas for legal clarifications or adjustments as of today iraqi lawmakers lean towards the second of the interpretations outlined above to be valid an autonomy referendum must correspond exactly to the territorial entity defined in the initiative regions of leftovers are unacceptable and must be built from scratch instead this means that the primary focus of future instability concerns failed regional initiatives on a larger scale it is very easy to launch an initiative but quite difficult to make it victorious in a single referendum this in turn makes the prospect of repeated initiatives and even pre referendum polls very real additionally the problem concerning partially successful regions outlined above with regard to the pre referendum poll stage may become equally relevant should a referendum on a successfully launched large scale initiative fail in the referendum in one or more of the affected governorates the spanish constitution explicitly gives recognition to such partial regions article 153 3 but it remains unclear whether a similar interpretation would be acceptable in iraq such regions could be purely accidental creations which no one had even thought about prior to the referendum and with the absence of a requirement for territorial contiguity in iraq they could in theory assume rather contorted shapes fortunately certain trends among leading iraqi politicians can go some way towards mitigating these problems much emphasis is attached to the 18 months moratorium on federalism as a period for educating public opinion about the federalism question importantly iraqi politicians have a far more sophisticated approach to the overall question of decentralisation than many western commentators iraqis tend to emphasise the asymmetrical multi layer characteristics of the iraqi constitution which mean that there is no absolute imperative for systematic federalisation and many governorates may well choose to retain their current administrative status in the future some leading iraqi politicians contend that a law on the governorates with provisions for wide ranging local autonomy will make federal regions an exceptional feature of the iraqi system perhaps limited to the kurdish areas and one or two small scale regions elsewhere additionally with a few exceptions the majority of pro federal iraqi politicians have so far stayed true to the bottom up principle by refraining from aggressively marketing any preferred regional vision during what is a critical period of transition helpful as such attitudes may be certain questions pertaining to the legal framework remain international political history has shown that federalism from below is a particularly challenging venture and iraq above all needs a decentralisation system that is watertight and capable of smoothly tackling the unforeseen in particular avoidance of a string of dead end federal initiatives and the concomitant potential for political instability would seem a natural goal at the same time it is desirable that the democratic spirit of the bottom up approach be preserved the very last thing iraqis want today is new dictatorships at a federal level two remedies could be relevant in this regard firstly the existing law on implementing federalism could be elaborated in areas where it currently leaves question marks secondly the committee charged with revising the iraqi constitution could undertake a more thorough rethink of the basic framework for the country s federalisation process whatever road is taken some key priority areas seem clear firstly it would be advantageous for the modalities of the pre referendum polls to be specified in greater detail especially the question of inter governorate synchronisation and how to deal with regional visions that become technically impossible after having failed at the poll level in one or more of the affected governorates but also some very basic questions need to be addressed at the poll stage like what level of participation if any should be required for this exercise and what kind of appeals procedures should be available secondly consideration might be given to the alternative of radically tightening up today s lax requirements for calling a referendum so as to avoid a multiplication of federal alternatives with limited popular support repeated initiatives and even pre referendum polls and ultimately voter exasperation and contempt for the entire process of federalisation 12 here it is worth bearing in mind that spain got into trouble even with relatively strict requirements for the initiation of autonomy projects in fact even if iraq should decide to imitate the spanish model for instance by requiring pre referendum consensus by a two thirds or three fourths majority at the lowest existing administrative level i e all municipalities plus those rural subdistricts or nahiya s without municipal institutions there would remain a considerable difference in the level of popular support behind the autonomy initiatives in the two countries by the early 1980s spain had a population of some 35 million distributed in around 8 000 municipalities i e on average 4 000 citizens behind every decision on an autonomy initiative by contrast the perhaps 25 million citizens of today s iraq have a local level layer of government limited to around 500 entities which yields a citizen entity ratio of approximately 1 to 50 000 clearly such an arrangement would have represented an improvement on today s proposed procedure and its roughly 1 400 000 citizens per governorate but it would still be far from spanish standards with regard to local level control of the federalisation process 13 a simple juxtaposition of the administrative maps of iraq and spain illustrates the salient differences in democratic density between the two cases of bottom up federalism 14 map 3 left spain s fine grained system of some 8 000 municipalities and the starting point for federalisation in the 1980s right iraq s provinces which form the suggested and comparatively crude framework for federalisation by way of popul...
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