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description= 15 posts published by Lars Syll during December 2014;
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nts still the benchmark even for natural and quasi experiments tell us with certainty what causes what effects but only given the right closures making appropriate extrapolations from ideal accidental natural or quasi experiments to different settings populations or target systems is not easy it works there is no evidence for it will work here causes deduced in an experimental setting still have to show that they come with an export warrant to the target population system the causal background assumptions made have to be justified and without licenses to export the value of rigorous and precise methods is despairingly small many advocates of randomization and experiments want to have deductively automated answers to fundamental causal questions but to apply thin methods we have to have thick background knowledge of what s going on in the real world and not in ideally controlled experiments conclusions can only be as certain as their premises and that also goes for methods based on randomized experiments the claimed strength of a social experiment relatively to non experimental methods is that few assumptions are required to establish its internal validity in identifying a project s impact the identification is not assumption free people are typically and thankfully free agents who make purposive choices about whether or not they should take up an assigned intervention as is well understood by the randomistas one needs to correct for such selective compliance the randomized assignment is assumed to only affect outcomes through treatment status the exclusion restriction there is another more troubling assumption just under the surface inferences are muddied by the presence of some latent factor unobserved by the evaluator but known to the participant that influences the individual specific impact of the program in question then the standard instrumental variable method for identifying the average treatment effect on the treated is no longer valid even when the instrumental variable is a randomized assignment most social experiments in practice make the implicit and implausible assumption that the program has the same impact for everyone while internal validity is the claimed strength of an experiment its acknowledged weakness is external validity the ability to learn from an evaluation about how the specific intervention will work in other settings and at larger scales the randomistas see themselves as the guys with the lab coats the scientists while other types the policy analysts worry about things like external validity yet it is hard to argue that external validity is less important than internal validity when trying to enhance development effectiveness against poverty nor is external validity any less legitimate as a topic for scientific inquiry martin ravaillon share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky perfect day private 25 dec 2014 at 14 38 posted in varia comments off on perfect day private after almost forty years in lund yours truly has returned to the town where he was born and bred malmö taking a stroll in a sunny and snow glittering pildammsparken today further convinced me returning was a good decision credence 25 dec 2014 at 10 13 posted in varia 1 comment statistics in the service of science 24 dec 2014 at 09 50 posted in statistics econometrics comments off on statistics in the service of science a chicken is an egg s way of constructing another egg and empirical research is a scientific theory s way of uncovering the theory s flaws it s harder to make such clear statements about statistics or engineering or computer science as these are essentially tools in the service of science rather than being the object of study themselves and there are fields where new paradigms don t seem so apparent consider three areas with which i m somewhat familiar political science psychology and economics in political science i see persistent difficulties in integrating different perspectives coming from the studies of public opinion institutions and political maneuvering it really feels like we re not seeing the whole elephant at once and i include my own research as an example of this incomplete perspective psychology seems to be undergoing a reforming process in which various unsuccessful paradigms such as embodied cognition are being rejected with no clear unification of the cognitive and behavioral approaches similarly in economics although there it seems worse in that various incomplete perspectives are taken by their proponents as being all encompassing how does statistics fit into all this statistics can potentially do a lot guidance in data collection and the assessment of measurements and recall that data collection is not just about how to collect a random sample or assign treatments in an experiment it also includes considerations of what to measure and how to measure it methods for calibrating variation by comparing to models of randomness this is where i think that statistical significance and p values fit in not as a way to make scientific discoveries p less than 05 so we get published in the tabloids but as a measuring stick when interpreting observed comparisons and variation tools for combining information that to me is the most general way to think of inference and it encompasses all sorts of things from classical iid models to more complicated approaches methods for checking fit for revealing the aspects of data that are not well explained by our models to me this includes all of exploratory data analysis which is about learning the unexpected again statistics is in the service of science and i see statistics as a way of organizing science rather than as a way of making scientific discovery i think most of the real scientific heavy lifting is coming from existing substantive theories the statistics is more of a way of rearranging the data or of adjudicating between competing hypotheses or underlying models of reality andrew gelman share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky boom bust boom 23 dec 2014 at 08 59 posted in economics comments off on boom bust boom h t jan milch invariance and inferring causation from regressions wonkish 20 dec 2014 at 12 20 posted in statistics econometrics 10 comments in order to make causal inferences from simple regression it is now conventional to assume something like the setting in equation 1 the equation makes very strong invariance assumptions which cannot be tested from data on x and y 1 y a bx δ what happens without invariance the answer will be obvious if intervention changes the intercept a the slope b or the mean of the error distribution the impact of the intervention becomes difficult to determine if the variance of the error term is changed the usual confidence intervals lose their meaning how would any of this be possible suppose for instance that unbeknownst to the statistician x and y are both the effects of a common cause operating through linear statistical laws like 1 suppose errors are independent and normal while nature randomizes the common cause to have a normal distribution the scatter diagram will look lovely a regression line is easily fitted and the straightforward causal interpretation will be wrong share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky new keynesian dsge models irrelevant gadgets 19 dec 2014 at 16 01 posted in economics comments off on new keynesian dsge models irrelevant gadgets there is something about the way macroeconomists construct their models nowadays that obviously doesn t sit right empirical evidence only plays a minor role in neoclassical mainstream economic theory where models largely function as a substitute for empirical evidence one might have hoped that humbled by the manifest failure of its theoretical pretences during the latest economic financial crisis the one sided almost religious insistence on axiomatic deductivist modeling as the only scientific activity worthy of pursuing in economics would give way to methodological pluralism based on ontological considerations rather than formalistic tractability that has so far not happened fortunately when you ve got tired of the kind of macroeconomic apologetics produced by new keynesian macroeconomists and other dsge modellers there still are some real keynesian macroeconomists to read one of them axel leijonhufvud writes for many years now the main alternative to real business cycle theory has been a somewhat loose cluster of models given the label of new keynesian theory new keynesians adhere on the whole to the same dsge modeling technology as rbc macroeconomists but differ in the extent to which they emphasise inflexibilities of prices or other contract terms as sources of shortterm adjustment problems in the economy the new keynesian label refers back to the rigid wages brand of keynesian theory of 40 or 50 years ago except for this stress on inflexibilities this brand of contemporary macroeconomic theory has basically nothing keynesian about it i conclude that dynamic stochastic general equilibrium theory has shown itself an intellectually bankrupt enterprise but this does not mean that we should revert to the old keynesian theory that preceded it or adopt the new keynesian theory that has tried to compete with it what we need to learn from keynes are about how to view our responsibilities and how to approach our subject if macroeconomic models no matter of what ilk build on microfoundational assumptions of representative actors rational expectations market clearing and equilibrium and we know that real people and markets cannot be expected to obey these assumptions the warrants for supposing that conclusions or hypothesis of causally relevant mechanisms or regularities can be bridged are obviously non justifiable incompatibility between actual behaviour and the behaviour in macroeconomic models building on representative actors and rational expectations microfoundations is not a symptom of irrationality it rather shows the futility of trying to represent real world target systems with models flagrantly at odds with reality a gadget is just a gadget and no matter how brilliantly silly dsge models you come up with they do not help us working with the fundamental issues of modern economies using dsge models only confirms robert gordon s dictum that today rigor competes with relevance in macroeconomic and monetary theory and in some lines of development macro and monetary theorists like many of their colleagues in micro theory seem to consider relevance to be more or less irrelevant share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky next page recent posts risksamhällets konturer arbetslöshetssiffran 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