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interests or allies the document explains that such threats must also be used to ensure that nations without nuclear technology refrain from developing nuclear weapons and that a universal ban precludes any nation from maintaining chemical or biological weapons the current tensions with iran and north korea over their nuclear programs are caused partly by the continuation of the policy of deterrence post cold war period edit source main article nuclear risk during the russian invasion of ukraine by the beginning of the 2022 russian invasion of ukraine many western hawks expressed the view that deterrence worked in that war but only in one way in favor of russia former us security advisor john bolton said deterrence is working in the ukraine crisis just not for the right side the united states and its allies failed to deter russia from invading the purpose of deterrence strategy is to prevent the conflict entirely and there washington failed badly on the other hand russian deterrence is enjoying spectacular success russia has convinced the west that even a whisper of nato military action in ukraine would bring disastrous consequences putin threatens blusters uses the word nuclear and the west wilts 64 when elon musk prevented ukraine from carrying drone attacks on the russian black sea fleet by denying to enable needed starlink communications in crimea 65 anne applebaum argued musk had been deterred by russia after the country s ambassador warned him an attack on crimea would be met with a nuclear response 66 later ukrainian attacks on the same fleet using a different communications system also caused deterrence this time to the russian navy 66 timo s koster who served at nato as director of defence policy capabilities similarly argued a massacre is taking place in europe and the strongest military alliance in the world is staying out of it we are deterred and russia is not 67 philip breedlove a retired four star u s air force general and a former saceur said that western fears about nuclear weapons and world war iii have left it fully deterred and putin completely undeterred the west have ceded the initiative to the enemy 68 no attempt was made by nato to deter moscow with the threat of military force wondered another expert to the contrary it was russia s deterrence that proved to be successful 69 cyber deterrence edit source main articles cyberwarfare and cyberweapon since the early 2000s there has been an increased focus on cyber deterrence cyber deterrence has two meanings 70 the use of cyber actions to deter other states the deterrence of an adversary s cyber operations scholars have debated how cyber capabilities alter traditional understandings of deterrence given that it may be harder to attribute responsibility for cyber attacks the barriers to entry may be lower the risks and costs may be lower for actors who conduct cyber attacks it may be harder to signal and interpret intentions the advantage of offense over defense and weak actors and non state actors can develop considerable cyber capabilities 70 71 72 73 scholars have also debated the feasibility of launching highly damaging cyber attacks and engaging in destructive cyber warfare with most scholars expressing skepticism that cyber capabilities have enhanced the ability of states to launch highly destructive attacks 74 75 76 the most prominent cyber attack to date is the stuxnet attack on iran s nuclear program 74 75 by 2019 the only publicly acknowledged case of a cyber attack causing a power outage was the 2015 ukraine power grid hack 77 there are various ways to engage in cyber deterrence 70 71 72 denial preventing adversaries from achieving military objectives by defending against them 73 punishment the imposition of costs on the adversary norms the establishment and maintenance of norms that establish appropriate standards of behavior 78 79 escalation raising the probability that costs will be imposed on the adversary 80 entanglement and interdependence interdependence between actors can have a deterrent effect 71 76 there is a risk of unintended escalation in cyberspace due to difficulties in discerning the intent of attackers 81 72 and complexities in state hacker relationships 82 according to political scientists joseph brown and tanisha fazal states frequently neither confirm nor deny responsibility for cyber operations so that they can avoid the escalatory risks that come with public credit while also signaling that they have cyber capabilities and resolve which can be achieved if intelligence agencies and governments believe they were responsible 80 according to lennart maschmeyer cyber weapons have limited coercive effectiveness due to a trilemma whereby speed intensity and control are negatively correlated these constraints pose a trilemma for actors because a gain in one variable tends to produce losses across the other two variables 83 intrawar deterrence edit source intrawar deterrence is deterrence within a war context it means that war has broken out but actors still seek to deter certain forms of behavior in the words of caitlin talmadge intra war deterrence failures can be thought of as causing wars to get worse in some way 84 examples of intrawar deterrence include deterring adversaries from resorting to nuclear chemical and biological weapons attacks or attacking civilian populations indiscriminately 85 broadly it involves any prevention of escalation 86 latent nuclear deterrence edit source matthew fuhrmann refers to the ability of some states to rapidly develop or gain nuclear weapons as latent nuclear deterrence these states do not necessarily aim to go all the way in building nuclear weapons but they may develop the civilian nuclear technology that would rapidly enable them to build a nuclear weapon they can use this nuclear latency status for coercive purposes as they can deter adversaries who do not wish to see the state develop nuclear weapons or potentially use those nuclear weapons 87 criticism edit source deterrence failures edit source see also salami slicing tactics deterrence theory has been criticized by numerous scholars for various reasons the most basic being skepticism that decision makers are rational a prominent strain of criticism argues that rational deterrence theory is contradicted by frequent deterrence failures which may be attributed to misperceptions 88 here it s argued that misestimations of perceived costs and benefits by analysts contribute to deterrence failures 89 as exemplified in case of russian invasion of ukraine frozen conflicts can be seen as rewarding aggression 90 misprediction of behavior edit source scholars have also argued that leaders do not behave in ways that are consistent with the predictions of nuclear deterrence theory 91 92 93 scholars have also argued that rational deterrence theory does not grapple sufficiently with emotions and psychological biases that make accidents loss of self control and loss of control over others likely 94 95 frank c zagare has argued that deterrence theory is logically inconsistent and empirically inaccurate in place of classical deterrence rational choice scholars have argued for perfect deterrence which assumes that states may vary in their internal characteristics and especially in the credibility of their threats of retaliation 96 reliance on luck edit source deterrence theory relies on the idea that nuclear war is to some degree controllable especially during crises retrospective accounts of historical participants in nuclear crises have frequently emphasized however the role of luck in the avoidance of nuclear war for example robert mcnamara remarked in a retrospective analysis of the cuban missile crisis that it was luck that prevented nuclear war and dean acheson attributed its peaceful resolution to plain dumb luck 97 luck in this context signifies a lack of control an acknowledgment that whether nuclear war happened or not was not something that was within the strict capabilities of the leaders of these countries to manage and that the history of nuclear close calls reveals that the lack of purposeful or accidental nuclear war can be at times variously attributed to disobedience technical failures the presence or lack of normal accidents or other factors beyond strict human control 98 that lucky nuclear close calls can be defined as instances in which unwanted nuclear explosions were avoided either independently of control practices despite control practices or because of the failure of control practices 99 general george lee butler commander of the us strategic air command 1991 1992 argued in 1999 that we escaped the cold war without a nuclear holocaust by some combination of skill luck and divine intervention and i suspect the latter in greatest proportion 100 suicide attacks edit source advocates for nuclear disarmament such as global zero have criticized nuclear deterrence theory sam nunn william perry henry kissinger and george shultz have all called upon governments to embrace the vision of a world free of nuclear weapons and created the nuclear security project to advance that agenda 101 in 2010 the four were featured in a documentary film entitled nuclear tipping point where proposed steps to achieve nuclear disarmament 102 103 kissinger has argued the classical notion of deterrence was that there was some consequences before which aggressors and evildoers would recoil in a world of suicide bombers that calculation doesn t operate in any comparable way 104 shultz said if you think of the people who are doing suicide attacks and people like that get a nuclear weapon they are almost by definition not deterrable 105 stronger deterrent edit source paul nitze argued in 1994 that nuclear weapons were obsolete in the new world disorder after the dissolution of the soviet union and he advocated reliance on precision guided munitions to secure a permanent military advantage over future adversaries 106 minimum deterrence edit source as opposed to the extreme mutually assured destruction form of deterrence the concept of minimum deterrence in which a state possesses no more nuclear weapons than is necessary to deter an adversary from attacking is presently the most common form of deterrence practiced by nuclear weapon states such as china india pakistan britain and france 107 pursuing minimal deterrence during arms negotiations between the united states and russia allows each state to make nuclear stockpile reductions without the state becoming vulnerable but it has been noted that there comes a point that further reductions may be undesirable once minimal deterrence is reached as further reductions beyond that point increase a state s vulnerability and provide an incentive for an adversary to expand its nuclear arsenal secretly 108 france has developed and maintained its own nuclear deterrent under the belief that the united states will refuse to risk its own cities by assisting western europe in a nuclear war 109 see also edit source balance of terror cold war policy of tenuous peace chainstore paradox game theory paradox confidence building measures actions taken to reduce fear of conflict decapitation strike military strategy pages displaying short descriptions of redirect targets democratic peace theory international relations theory international relations study of relationships between states launch on warning nuclear strategy long peace absence of major wars following world war ii madman theory feature of u s president richard nixon s foreign policy n deterrence military doctrine of pakistan pages displaying short descriptions of redirect targets nuclear blackmail military strategy nuclear ethics academic and policy relevant field on problems in the nuclear weapons and energy complex nuclear peace peace due to nuclear deterrence pages displaying short descriptions of redirect targets nuclear strategy doctrines and plans for production and use of atomic weapons nuclear terrorism terrorism involving nuclear material or weapons nuclear warfare military conflict that deploys nuclear weaponry peace through strength phrase that suggests that military power can help preserve peace prisoner s dilemma standard example in game theory reagan doctrine 1980s u s strategy to counter soviet influence security dilemma unwanted escalation of interstate tensions tripwire force strategic approach in military deterrence theory wargaming strategy game that realistically simulates war pages displaying short descriptions of redirect targets notes edit source definition of deterrence from the dictionary of modern strategy and tactics by michael keane the prevention or inhibition of action brought about by fear of the consequences deterrence is a state of mind brought about by the existence of a credible threat of unacceptable counteraction it assumes and requires rational decision makers references edit source wragg david w 1973 a dictionary of aviation first ed osprey p 108 isbn 978 0 85045 163 4 lindsay jon r gartzke erik 2019 introduction cross domain deterrence from practice to theory oxford university press p 2 doi 10 1093 oso 9780190908645 003 0001 isbn 978 0 19 090960 4 archived from the original on 2021 08 30 retrieved 2021 08 30 بایزیدی رحیم 2024 08 22 بین المللی سازی بازدارندگی ایران در خاورمیانه اوراسیا و جنوب آسیا مطالعات اوراسیای مرکزی in persian 17 1 53 81 doi 10 22059 jcep 2024 364228 450162 issn 2008 0867 1 2 3 morgan patrick m 1977 deterrence a conceptual analysis sage publications pp 26 30 isbn 978 0 8039 0819 2 archived from the original on 2024 02 24 retrieved 2021 08 30 1 2 3 4 gartzke eric lindsay jon r 2019 cross domain deterrence strategy in an era of complexity oxford university press doi 10 1093 oso 9780190908645 001 0001 isbn 978 0 19 090960 4 archived from the original on 2021 08 30 retrieved 2021 08 30 art robert j greenhill kelly m 2015 the use of force military power and international politics rowman littlefield publishers pp 3 5 isbn 978 1 4422 3306 5 archived from the original on 2024 02 24 retrieved 2021 08 28 1 2 3 schelling thomas c 1966 arms and influence yale university press doi 10 2307 j ctt5vm52s isbn 978 0 300 00221 8 jstor j ctt5vm52s pape robert a 1996 bombing to win air power and coercion in war 1 ed cornell university press isbn 978 0 8014 3134 0 jstor 10 7591 j ctt1287f6v mearsheimer john j 1983 conventional deterrence cornell university press p 23 isbn 978 1 5017 1325 5 jstor 10 7591 j ctt1rv61v2 shimshoni jonathan 1988 israel and conventional deterrence cornell university press p 6 doi 10 7591 9781501737831 isbn 978 1 5017 3783 1 s2cid 243305936 archived from the original on 2021 09 06 retrieved 2021 09 06 glaser bonnie s weiss jessica chen christensen thomas j 2023 11 30 taiwan and the true sources of deterrence foreign affairs issn 0015 7120 archived from the original on 2023 12 01 retrieved 2023 12 01 1 2 heginbotham eric samuels richard j 2018 active denial redesigning japan s response to 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