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ment in the short run the gdp would by 2019 have an estimated net decrease between 0 1 and 0 3 as compared to the cbo estimated baseline 80 the cbo estimated that enacting the bill would increase federal budget deficits by 185 billion over the remaining months of fiscal year 2009 by 399 billion in 2010 and by 134 billion in 2011 or 787 billion over the 2009 2019 period 81 in a february 11 letter cbo director douglas elmendorf noted that there was disagreement among economists about the effectiveness of the stimulus with some skeptical of any significant effects while others expecting very large effects 78 elmendorf said the cbo expected short term increases in gdp and employment 78 in the long term the cbo expects the legislation to reduce output slightly by increasing the nation s debt and crowding out private investment but noted that other factors such as improvements to roads and highways and increased spending for basic research and education may offset the decrease in output and that crowding out was not an issue in the short term because private investment was already decreasing in response to decreased demand 78 in february 2015 the cbo released its final analysis of the results of the law which found that during six years 82 real gdp was boosted by an average ranging from a low of 1 7 to a high of 9 2 the unemployment rate was reduced by an average ranging from a low of 1 1 percentage points to a high of 4 8 percentage points full time equivalent employment years was boosted by an average ranging from 2 1 million to 11 6 million total outlays were 663 billion of which 97 billion were refundable tax credits recovery gov edit recovery gov archived february 21 2009 at the wayback machine the website created for this act a may 21 2009 article in the washington post stated to build support for the stimulus package president obama vowed unprecedented transparency a big part of which he said would be allowing taxpayers to track money to the street level on recovery gov but three months after the bill was signed recovery gov offers little beyond news releases general breakdowns of spending and acronym laden spreadsheets and timelines the same article also stated unlike the government site the privately run recovery org is actually providing detailed information about how the 787 billion in stimulus money is being spent 83 reports regarding errors in reporting on the web site made national news news stories circulated about recovery gov reporting fund distribution to congressional districts that did not exist 84 85 a recovery gov plaque on public transport in miami a new recovery gov website was redesigned at a cost estimated to be 9 5 million 13 3 million in 2024 through january 2010 86 on july 20 2009 the drudge report published links to pages on recovery gov that drudge alleged were detailing expensive contracts awarded by the u s department of agriculture for items such as individual portions of mozzarella cheese frozen ham and canned pork costing hundreds of thousands to over a million dollars a statement released by the usda the same day corrected the allegation stating that references to 2 pound frozen ham sliced are to the sizes of the packaging press reports suggesting that the recovery act spent 1 191 million to buy 2 pounds of ham are wrong in fact the contract in question purchased 760 000 pounds of ham for 1 191 million at a cost of approximately 1 50 per pound 87 as of 2016 the servers for recovery gov have been shut down and the site is unavailable 88 developments under the act and estimates of the act s effects edit chart of bls job loss data based on ofa s chart president barack obama and vice president joe biden speak to state legislators about the implementation of the recovery act on march 20 2009 the congressional budget office reported in october 2009 the reasons for the changes in the 2008 and 2009 deficits which were approximately 460 billion and 1 41 trillion respectively the cbo estimated that arra increased the deficit by 200 billion 283 billion in 2024 for 2009 split evenly between tax cuts and additional spending excluding any feedback effects on the economy 89 on february 12 2010 the bureau of labor statistics which regularly issues economic reports published job loss data on a month by month basis since 2000 90 organizing for america a community organizing project of the democratic national committee prepared a chart presenting the bls data for the period beginning in december 2007 ofa used the chart to argue as a result of the recovery act job losses are a fraction of what they were a year ago before the recovery act began 91 others argue that job losses always grow early in a recession and naturally slow down with or without government stimulus spending and that the ofa chart was misleading in the primary justification for the stimulus package the obama administration and democratic proponents presented a graph in january 2009 showing the projected unemployment rate with and without the arra 12 the graph showed that if arra was not enacted the unemployment rate would exceed 9 but if arra was enacted it would never exceed 8 after arra became law the actual unemployment rate exceeded 8 in february 2009 exceeded 9 in may 2009 and exceeded 10 in october 2009 the actual unemployment rate was 9 2 in june 2011 when it was projected to be below 7 with the arra however supporters of the arra claim that this can be accounted for by noting that the actual recession was subsequently revealed to be much worse than any projections at the time when the arra was drawn up citation needed projected unemployment rate according to a march 2009 industry survey of and by the national association of business economists 60 3 of their economists who had reviewed the fiscal stimulus enacted in february 2009 projected it would have a modest impact in shortening the recession with 29 4 anticipating little or no impact as well as 10 3 predicting a strong impact the aspects of the stimulus expected by the nabe to have the greatest effectiveness were physical infrastructure unemployment benefits expansion and personal tax rate cuts 92 one year after the stimulus several independent macroeconomic firms including moody s and ihs global insight estimated that the stimulus saved or created 1 6 to 1 8 million jobs and forecast a total impact of 2 5 million jobs saved by the time the stimulus is completed 93 the congressional budget office considered these estimates conservative 93 the cbo estimated according to its model 2 1 million jobs saved in the last quarter of 2009 boosting the economy by up to 3 5 percent and lowering the unemployment rate by up to 2 1 percent 94 the cbo projected that the package would have an even greater impact in 2010 94 the cbo also said it is impossible to determine how many of the reported jobs would have existed in the absence of the stimulus package 95 the cbo s report on the first quarter of 2010 showed a continued positive effect with an employment gain in that quarter of up to 2 8 million and a gdp boost of up to 4 2 percent 96 economists timothy conley of the university of western ontario and bill dupor of the ohio state university found that while the stimulus effects on public sector job creation were unambiguously positive the effects on private sector job creation were ambiguous 97 economist dan wilson of the federal reserve who used similar methodology without the same identified errors estimates that arra spending created or saved about 2 million jobs in its first year and over 3 million by march 2011 98 the cbo also revised its assessment of the long term impact of the bill after 2014 the stimulus is estimated to decrease output by zero to 0 2 the stimulus is not expected to have a negative impact on employment in any period of time 99 in 2011 the department of commerce revised some of its previous estimates economist dean baker commented t he revised data showed that the economy was plunging even more rapidly than we had previously recognised in the two quarters following the collapse of lehman yet the plunge stopped in the second quarter of 2009 just as the stimulus came on line this was followed by respectable growth over the next four quarters growth then weakened again as the impact of the stimulus began to fade at the end of 2010 and the start of this year in other words the growth pattern shown by the revised data sure makes it appear that the stimulus worked the main problem would seem to be that the stimulus was not big enough and it wasn t left in place long enough to lift the economy to anywhere near potential output 100 the democratic congressional campaign committee dccc established a hypocrisy hall of fame to list republican representatives who had voted against arra but who then sought or took credit for arra programs in their districts as of september 2011 the dccc was listing 128 house republicans in this category 101 newsweek reported that many of the republican legislators who publicly argued that the stimulus would not create jobs were writing letters seeking stimulus programs for their districts on the grounds that the spending would create jobs 102 the stimulus has been criticized as being too small in july 2010 a group of 40 prominent economists issued a statement calling for expanded stimulus programs to reduce unemployment they also challenged the view that the priority should be reducing the deficit making deficit reduction the first target without addressing the chronic underlying deficiency of demand is exactly the error of the 1930s 103 in july 2010 the white house council of economic advisers cea estimated that the stimulus had saved or created between 2 5 and 3 6 million jobs as of the second quarter of 2010 104 at that point spending outlays under the stimulus totaled 257 billion and tax cuts totaled 223 billion 105 in july 2011 the cea estimated that as of the first quarter of 2011 106 the arra raised employment relative to what it otherwise would have been by between 2 4 and 3 6 million the sum of outlays and tax cuts up to this point was 666 billion using a straight mathematical calculation critics reported that the arra cost taxpayers between 185 000 to 278 000 per job that was created though this computation does not include the permanent infrastructure that resulted in august 2010 republican senators tom coburn and john mccain released a report listing 100 projects it described as the most wasteful projects funded by the act in total the projects questioned by the two senators amounted to about 15 billion or less than 2 of the 862 billion the two senators did concede that the stimulus has had a positive effect on the economy though they criticized it for failing to give the biggest bang for our buck on the issue of job creation cnn noted that the two senators stated objections were brief summaries presenting selective accounts that were unclear and the journalists pointed out several instances where they created erroneous impressions 107 one of the primary purposes and promises of the act was to launch a large number of shovel ready projects that would generate jobs 108 however a sizable number of these projects most of which pertained to infrastructure took longer to implement than they had expected by most 109 by 2010 obama said he had come to realize there s no such thing as shovel ready projects 110 some of the tax incentives in the act including those related to the american opportunity tax credit and earned income tax credit were extended for a further two years by the tax relief unemployment insurance reauthorization and job creation act of 2010 111 in november 2011 the congressional budget office cbo updated its earlier reports concerning the act the cbo stated that the employment effects began to wane at the end of 2010 and have continued to do so throughout 2011 nevertheless in the third quarter of 2011 the cbo estimated that the act had increased the number of full time equivalent jobs by 0 5 million to 3 3 million 112 section 1513 of the recovery act stated that reports on the impact of the act were to be submitted quarterly however the last report issued occurred for the second quarter of 2011 113 as of december 2012 58 6 of americans are employed 114 115 in 2013 the reason foundation an american libertarian group conducted a study of the results of the arra only 23 of the 8 381 sampled companies hired new workers and kept all of them when the project was completed also just 41 of sampled companies hired workers at all while 30 of sampled companies did hire but laid off all workers once the government money stopped funding 116 these results cast doubt on previously stated estimates of job creation numbers which do not factor those companies that did not retain their workers or hire any at all in february 2014 the white house stated in a release that the stimulus measure saved or created an average of 1 6 million jobs a year between 2009 and 2012 thus averting having the recession descend into another great depression republicans such as house speaker john boehner of ohio criticized the report since in their views the act cost too much for too little result 117 oversight and administration edit in addition to the vice president biden s oversight role a high level advisory body the president s economic recovery advisory board later renamed and reconstituted as the president s council on jobs and competitiveness was named concurrent to the passage of the act as well the president named inspector general of the united states department of the interior earl devaney and the recovery accountability and transparency board ratb to monitor administration of the act and prevent low levels of fraud waste and loss in fund allocation 118 119 eleven other inspectors general served on the ratb and the board also had a recovery independent advisory panel in late 2011 devaney and his fellow inspectors general on ratb and more who were not were credited with avoiding any major scandals in the administration of the act in the eyes of one washington observer 120 in may 2016 the chairman of the u s senate finance committee senator orrin hatch r ut launched the first steps of an investigation into a part of the stimulus law that gave grants to solar and green energy companies hatch sent a letter to the irs and treasury department with a list of questions about the program according to the wall street journal letters from senior senators who chair committees can lead to formal investigations by congress 121 one part of the stimulus law section 1603 gave cash grants to solar companies to encourage investment in solar technology because many companies did not yet make a profit in 2009 in that industry they were offered cash instead of tax credits in september 2015 the u s government asked that a spanish company return 1 million 1 29 million in 2024 it had received from the program the company issued a statement saying it fully complied with the r...
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