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description= 15 posts published by Lars Syll during March 2021;
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Text of the page (random words):
umbers do but that modern time marginalist approach sure can t be the right way to move economics forward and make it a relevant and realist science a plumber can fix minor leaks in your system but if the whole system is rotten something more than good old fashion plumbing is needed the big social and economic problems we face today is not going to be solved by plumbers performing rcts the point of making a randomized experiment is often said to be that it ensures that any correlation between a supposed cause and effect indicates a causal relation this is believed to hold since randomization allegedly ensures that a supposed causal variable does not correlate with other variables that may influence the effect the problem with that simplistic view on randomization is that the claims made are both exaggerated and false even if you manage to do the assignment to treatment and control groups ideally random the sample selection certainly is except in extremely rare cases not random even if we make a proper randomized assignment if we apply the results to a biased sample there is always the risk that the experimental findings will not apply what works there does not work here randomization hence does not guarantee or ensure making the right causal claim although randomization may help us rule out certain possible causal claims randomization per se does not guarantee anything even if both sampling and assignment are made in an ideal random way performing standard randomized experiments only give you averages the problem here is that although we may get an estimate of the true average causal effect this may mask important heterogeneous effects of a causal nature although we get the right answer of the average causal effect being 0 those who are treated may have causal effects equal to 100 and those not treated may have causal effects equal to 100 contemplating being treated or not most people would probably be interested in knowing about this underlying heterogeneity and would not consider the average effect particularly enlightening there is almost always a trade off between bias and precision in real world settings a little bias often does not overtrump greater precision and most importantly in case we have a population with sizeable heterogeneity the average treatment effect of the sample may differ substantially from the average treatment effect in the population if so the value of any extrapolating inferences made from trial samples to other populations is highly questionable since most real world experiments and trials build on performing one single randomization what would happen if you kept on randomizing forever does not help you to ensure or guarantee that you do not make false causal conclusions in the one particular randomized experiment you actually do perform it is indeed difficult to see why thinking about what you know you will never do would make you happy about what you actually do randomization is not a panacea it is not the best method for all questions and circumstances proponents of randomization make claims about its ability to deliver causal knowledge that is simply wrong there are good reasons to be skeptical of the now popular and ill informed view that randomization is the only valid and best method on the market it is not so as rodrik has it economists research can rarely substitute for more complete works of synthesis which consider a multitude of causes weigh likely effects and address spatial and temporal variation of causal mechanisms work of this kind is more likely to be undertaken by historians and non quantitatively oriented social scientists share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky a grief observed personal 30 mar 2021 at 12 59 posted in varia comments off on a grief observed personal we were promised sufferings they were part of the program we were even told blessed are they that mourn and i accept it i ve got nothing that i hadn t bargained for of course it is different when the thing happens to oneself not to others and in reality not imagination but those two circles above all the point at which they touched are the very thing i am mourning for homesick for famished for you tell me she goes on but my heart and body are crying out come back come back be a circle touching my circle on the plane of nature but i know this is impossible i know that the thing i want is exactly the thing i can never get people say time heals all wounds i wish that was true but some wounds never heal even after twenty eight years you just have to learn to live with the scars in memory of kristina syll beloved wife and mother of david and tora share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky why do economists never mention power 29 mar 2021 at 22 49 posted in economics 8 comments the intransigence of econ 101 points to a dark side of economics namely that the absence of power speak is by design could it be that economics describes the world in a way that purposely keeps the workings of power opaque history suggests that this idea is not so far fetched the key to wielding power successfully is to make control appear legitimate that requires ideology before capitalism rulers legitimised their power by tying it to divine right in modern secular societies however that s no longer an option so rather than brag of their god like power modern corporate rulers use a different tactic they turn to economics an ideology that simply ignores the realities of power safe in this ideological obscurity corporate rulers wield power that rivals or even surpasses the kings of old are economists cognisant of this game some may be most economists however are likely just clever people who are willing to delve into the intricacies of neoclassical theory without ever questioning its core tenets meanwhile with every student who gets hoodwinked by econ 101 the rockefellers of the world happily reap the benefits blair fix share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky the vanity of deductivity 29 mar 2021 at 22 27 posted in economics comments off on the vanity of deductivity modelling by the construction of analogue economies is a widespread technique in economic theory nowadays as lucas urges the important point about analogue economies is that everything is known about them and within them the propositions we are interested in can be formulated rigorously and shown to be valid for these constructed economies our views about what will happen are statements of verifiable fact the method of verification is deduction we are however faced with a trade off we can have totally verifiable results but only about economies that are not real how then do these analogue economies relate to the real economies that we are supposed to be theorizing about my overall suspicion is that the way deductivity is achieved in economic models may undermine the possibility to teach genuine truths about empirical reality share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky my sinful soul 28 mar 2021 at 12 33 posted in varia comments off on my sinful soul share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky learning from econophysics mistakes 27 mar 2021 at 11 19 posted in economics 13 comments by appealing to statistical mechanics econophysicists hypothesize that we can explain the workings of the economy from simple first principles i think that is a mistake to see the mistake i ll return to richard feynman s famous lecture on atomic theory towards the end of the talk he observes that atomic theory is important because it is the basis for all other branches of science including biology the most important hypothesis in all of biology for example is that everything that animals do atoms do in other words there is nothing that living things do that cannot be understood from the point of view that they are made of atoms acting according to the laws of physics richard feynman lectures on physics i like this quote because it is profoundly correct there is no fundamental difference we believe between animate and inanimate matter it is all just atoms that is an astonishing piece of knowledge it is also in an important sense astonishingly useless imagine that a behavioral biologist complains to you that baboon behavior is difficult to predict you console her by saying don t worry everything that animals do atoms do you are perfectly correct and completely unhelpful your acerbic quip illustrates an important asymmetry in science reduction does not imply resynthesis as a particle physicist richard feynman was concerned with reduction taking animals and reducing them to atoms but to be useful to our behavioral biologist this reduction must be reversed we must take atoms and resynthesize animals the problem is that this resynthesis is over our heads vastly so we can take atoms and resynthesize large molecules but the rest dna cells organs animals is out of reach when large clumps of matter interact for billions of years weird and unpredictable things happen that is what physicist philip anderson meant when he said more is different the ultimate goal of science is to understand all of this structure from the bottom up it is a monumental task the easy part which is still difficult is to reduce the complex to the simple the harder part is to take the simple parts and resynthesize the system often when we resynthesize we fail spectacularly economics is a good example of this failure to be sure the human economy is a difficult thing to understand so there is no shame when our models fail still there is a philosophical problem that hampers economics economists want to reduce the economy to micro foundations simple principles that describe how individuals behave then economists want to use these principles to resynthesize the economy it is a fool s errand the system is far too complex the interconnections too poorly understood i have picked on econophysics because its models have the advantage of being exceptionally clear whereas mainstream economists obscure their assumptions in obtuse language econophysicists are admirably explicit we assume humans behave like gas particles i admire this boldness because it makes the pitfalls easier to see by throwing away ordered connections between individuals econophysicists make the mathematics tractable the problem is that it is these ordered connections the complex relations between people that define the economy throw them away and what you gain in mathematical traction you lose in relevance that s because you are no longer describing the economy you are describing an inert gas blair fix interesting blog post building an analysis mostly on tractability assumptions is a dangerous thing to do and that goes for both mainstream economics and econophysics why would anyone listen to policy proposals that are based on foundations that deliberately misrepresent actual behaviour defenders of microfoundations and its rational expectations equipped representative agent s intertemporal optimisation frequently argue as if sticking with simple representative agent macroeconomic models doesn t impart a bias to the analysis they also often maintain that there are no methodologically coherent alternatives to microfoundations modelling that allegation is of course difficult to evaluate substantially hinging on how coherence is defined but one thing i do know is that the kind of microfoundationalist macroeconomics that new classical economists and new keynesian economists are pursuing are not methodologically coherent according to the standard coherence definition see e g here and that ought to be rather embarrassing for those ilks of macroeconomists to whom axiomatics and deductive reasoning is the hallmark of science tout court share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky john von neumann on mathematics 27 mar 2021 at 10 22 posted in theory of science methodology 2 comments share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky wissenschaftler irren 27 mar 2021 at 10 16 posted in theory of science methodology comments off on wissenschaftler irren share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky berkson s paradox student stuff 25 mar 2021 at 17 09 posted in statistics econometrics comments off on berkson s paradox student stuff share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky how economic orthodoxy protects its dominant position 25 mar 2021 at 15 29 posted in economics 1 comment john bryan davis 2016 has offered a persuasive account of the way an economic orthodoxy protects its dominant position traditional reflexive domains for judging research quality the theory evidence nexus the history and philosophy of economics are pushed aside instead research quality is assessed through journal ranking systems this is highly biased towards the status quo and reinforces stratification top journals feature articles by top academics at top institutions top academics and institutions are those who feature heavily in top journals because departmental funding is so dependent on journal scores career advancement is often made on the basis of these rankings they are not to be taken lightly it is not that competition is lacking but it is confined to those who slavishly accept the paradigm as defined by the gatekeepers the journal editors in this self referential system it is faithful adherence to a preconceived notion of good economics that pushes one ahead robert skidelsky the only economic analysis that mainstream economists accept is the one that takes place within the analytic formalistic modeling strategy that makes up the core of mainstream economics all models and theories that do not live up to the precepts of the mainstream methodological canon are pruned you re free to take your models not using mathematical models at all is considered totally unthinkable and apply them to whatever you want as long as you do it within the mainstream approach and its modeling strategy if you do not follow that particular mathematical deductive analytical formalism you re not even considered doing economics if it isn t modeled it isn t economics that isn t pluralism that s a methodological reductionist straightjacket share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky les 150 ans de la commune de paris 25 mar 2021 at 14 37 posted in e...
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