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description= 15 posts published by Lars Syll during February 2024;
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for, student, stuff, best, econometrics, and, as, on, economics, too, recent, comments, lars, syll, data, analysis, social, sciences, how, einstein, taught, me, great, lesson, kvantitet, framför, kvalitet, den, högre, utbildningen, 20, blogs, websites, in, 2024, second, explanatory, practice, long, it, takes, keynes, visar, vägen, ut, ur, krisen, love, secret, schuldenbremse, ein, deutscher, fetisch, courage, that, will, live, forever, top, influencers, to, follow, the, problem, with, much, maths, little, history, riksbanken, har, gjort, hundratusentals, arbetslösa, game, theory, waste, of, time, staggering, scale, potential, outcomes, regression, posts, policy, reading, list, categories, archives,
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rs that contributed to the financial crisis of 2008 2 stop the childish and exaggerated belief in mathematics giving answers to important economic questions mathematics gives exact answers to exact questions but the relevant and interesting questions we face in the economic realm are rarely of that kind questions like is 2 2 4 are never posed in real economies instead of a fundamentally misplaced reliance on abstract mathematical deductive axiomatic models having anything of substance to contribute to our knowledge of real economies it would be far better if we pursued thicker models and relevant empirical studies and observations 3 stop pretending that there are laws in economics there are no universal laws in economics economies are not like planetary systems or physics labs the most we can aspire to in real economies is establishing possible tendencies with varying degrees of generalizability 4 stop treating other social sciences as poor relations economics has long suffered from hubris a more broad minded and multifarious science would enrich today s altogether quixotic economics 5 stop building models and making forecasts of the future based on totally unreal micro founded macro models with intertemporally optimizing robot like representative actors equipped with rational expectations this is pure nonsense we have to build our models on assumptions that are not so blatantly in contradiction to reality assuming that people are green and come from mars is not good not even as a successive approximation modelling strategy mainstream economic theory today is still in the story telling business whereby economic theorists create mathematical make believe analogue models of the target system usually conceived as the real economic system this mathematical modelling activity is considered useful and essential to understand and explain relations between different entities in the real economy the predominant strategy is to build mathematical models and make things happen in these analog economy models rather than engineering things happening in real economies without strong evidence all kinds of absurd claims and nonsense may pretend to be science let us not forget what paul romer said in his attack on post real economics some years ago math cannot establish the truth value of a fact never has never will we have to demand more of a justification than rather watered down versions of anything goes when it comes to the main postulates on which mainstream economics is founded if one proposes efficient markets or rational expectations one also has to support their underlying assumptions as a rule none is given which makes it rather puzzling how things like efficient markets and rational expectations have become standard modelling assumptions made in much of modern macroeconomics the reason for this sad state of modern economics is that economists often mistake mathematical beauty for truth share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky riksbanken har gjort hundratusentals arbetslösa 19 feb 2024 at 18 34 posted in economics 1 comment många mainstreamekonomer medger att det är svårt att exakt veta var jämviktsarbetslösheten nairu ligger men att den kan fungera som en slags tankeram som kan hjälpa politiker och andra policymakare att fatta beslut och göra prognoser bra tankeram nej som senare tids forskning övertygande visat är nairu snarare att se som en slags ekonomisk politisk fiktion som förändras utifrån den förda finans och penningpolitiken därför har också ekonomer haft monumentalt svårt att komma överens både om hur nairu ska uppskattas och hur hög den faktiskt är riksbankens oftast överdrivet restriktiva inflationspolitik bidrar till att hundratusentals människor helt i onödan kastas ut i arbetslöshet när vi väl ser hur svaga grunderna för den naturliga arbetslösheten är blir det lättare att argumentera för andra lösningar på ekonomins problem än att ständigt låta de arbetslösa ta smällarna lars syll magasinet konkret sedan ett halvår tillbaka är yours truly fast medarbetare på det partipolitiskt obundna frihetliga och progressiva samhällsmagasinet konkret mina artiklar finns att läsa här share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky game theory a waste of time on a staggering scale 19 feb 2024 at 15 30 posted in economics comments off on game theory a waste of time on a staggering scale we certainly agree that regularities or models that explain or that give heuristic value over many different cases are highly desirable but ones that do neither are not especially if they use up huge resources along the way when looking at the details the prisoner s dilemma s explanatory record so far is poor and its heuristic record mixed at best the only way to get a reliable sense of what theoretical input would actually be useful is via detailed empirical investigations what useful contribution whether explanatory heuristic or none at all the prisoner s dilemma makes to such investigations cannot be known until they are tried therefore resources would be better directed towards that rather than towards yet more theoretical development or laboratory experiments r northcott a alexandrova game theory is like mainstream economics in general model oriented there are many reasons for this the history of the discipline having ideals coming from the natural sciences especially physics the search for universality explaining as much as possible with as little as possible rigour precision etc most mainstream economists and game theorists want to explain social phenomena structures and patterns based on the assumption that the agents are acting in an optimizing rational way to satisfy given stable and well defined goals building their economic models modern mainstream economists ground their models on a set of core assumptions describing the agents as rational actors and a set of auxiliary assumptions based on these two sets of assumptions they try to explain and predict both individual and social phenomena the model used is typically seen as a kind of thought experimental as if benchmark device for enabling a rigorous mathematically tractable illustration of social interaction in an ideal type model world and to be able to compare that ideal with reality the interpreted model is supposed to supply analytical and explanatory power enabling us to detect and understand mechanisms and tendencies in what happens around us in real economies but if the models are to be relevant we also have to argue that their precision and rigour still hold when they are applied to real world situations they often do not when addressing real economies the idealizations and abstractions necessary for the deductivist machinery to work simply do not hold if the real world is fuzzy vague and indeterminate then why should our models build upon a desire to describe it as precise and predictable being told that the model is rigorous and amenable to successive approximations to reality is of little avail especially when the law like nomological core assumptions are highly questionable and extremely difficult to test many mainstream economists still think that game theory is useful and can be applied to real life and give important and interesting results that however is a rather unsubstantiated view what game theory does is strictly seen nothing more than investigate the logic of behaviour among non existant robot imitations of humans knowing how those rational fools play games does not help us to decide and act when interacting with real people knowing some game theory may actually make us behave in a way that hurts both ourselves and others decision making and social interaction are always embedded in socio cultural contexts not taking account of that game theory will remain an analytical cul de sac that never will be able to come up with useful and relevant explanations over emphasizing the reach of instrumental rationality and abstracting away from the influence of many known to be important factors reduces the analysis to a pure thought experiment without any substantial connection to reality limiting theoretical economic analysis in this way not incorporating both motivational and institutional factors when trying to explain human behaviour makes economics insensitive to social facts game theorists extensively exploit rational choice assumptions in their explanations that is probably also the reason why game theory has not been able to accommodate well known anomalies in its theoretical framework that should hardly come as a surprise to anyone game theory with its axiomatic view of individuals tastes beliefs and preferences cannot accommodate very much of real life behaviour it is hard to find really compelling arguments in favour of us continuing down its barren paths since individuals obviously do not comply with or are guided by game theory apart from a few notable exceptions it is difficult to find really successful applications of game theory why to a large extent simply because the boundary conditions of game theoretical models are false and baseless from a real world perspective and perhaps even more importantly since they are not even close to being good approximations of real life game theory lacks predictive power this should come as no surprise as long as game theory sticks to its rational choice foundations there is not much to be hoped for as noted by northcott and alexandrova applications of game theory have on the whole resulted in massive predictive failures people simply do not act according to the theory they do not know or possess the assumed probabilities utilities beliefs or information to calculate the different subgame trembling hand perfect nash equilibria they may be reasonable and make use of their given cognitive faculties as well as they can but they are obviously not those perfect and costless hyper rational expected utility maximizing calculators game theory posits and fortunately so being reasonable makes them avoid all those made up rationality traps that game theory would have put them in if they had tried to act as consistent players in a game theoretical sense game theorists can of course marginally modify their toolbox and fiddle with the auxiliary assumptions to get whatever outcome they want but as long as the rational choice core assumptions are left intact it seems a pointless effort to hamper an already excessive deductive axiomatic formalism if you do believe in the real world relevance of game theoretical science fiction assumptions such as expected utility common knowledge backward induction correct and consistent beliefs etc etc then adding things like framing cognitive bias and different kinds of heuristics do not solve any problem if we want to construct a theory that can provide us with explanations of individual cognition decisions and social interaction we have to look for something else share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky potential outcomes and regression student stuff 19 feb 2024 at 15 04 posted in statistics econometrics comments off on potential outcomes and regression student stuff share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky next page recent posts instead of esc simona mohamssons patetiska skatteutspel paul samuelson and revealed preference theory ernst wigforss och stockholmsskolan government debt is not a burden on future generations friskolorna en megaflopp som det är dags avskaffa cultural marxism robert solow kicking lucas and sargent in the pants lessons to learn from robert reich one moment of silence det är skillnad på ledarskap och ledarskap har du modet att lyssna till ord från din innersta vrå the identity politics trap 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