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onsider that letter on the cubs caps doesn t stand for championship and their opponent is certain to be either the team that swept them out of the playoffs last year or the team that always wins the world series in even years the scariest phrase to a cubs fan right now is probably anything can happen in baseball dodgers 17 90 over nationals 13 33 why the dodgers win this simulation like the cubs these dodgers do everything well the best pitchers in the playoffs by runs above replacement per inning pitched are aroldis chapman kenley jansen andrew miller clayton kershaw zach britton and rich hill you may have noticed that half of them wear dodger blue corey seager joc pederson and justin turner pace the fourth best offense left standing while seager turner and two good catchers lead the third best defense what the model doesn t consider max scherzer may win the nl cy young award and tanner roark is right on his heels if stephen strasburg can come back the model considers him the fourth starter giving him only three innings pitched in the series this team can pitch with la who will depend on more health from kershaw and hill than they got all year trea turner has emerged as a young star and bryce harper s 2016 numbers probably sell short his ability to dominate a playoff series american league championship series red sox 22 51 over blue jays 19 02 why the red sox win this simulation boston s offense is enough to carry them past just about anyone they play excellent defense particularly in the outfield and rick porcello and david price form a formidable one two punch in the rotation as much power as the middle of toronto s lineup packs boston s is just relentless with sandy leon jackie bradley jr and andrew benintendi forming the best bottom three in the playoffs by far what the model doesn t consider again boston s bullpen will have to stare down three great hitters and survive toronto s own offensive attack aaron sanchez marco estrada ja happ and marcus stroman form the deepest rotation on the al side of the playoffs the matchups in games 3 and 4 in toronto would likely favor the jays national league championship series cubs 25 10 over dodgers 24 73 why the cubs win this simulation last year the one surprise revealed by this model was that the mets might have had the best team in the playoffs if there s a surprise this year it s that the dodgers are this close to the cubs kershaw hill and kenta maeda would be a handful for any team and the dodger bats will be a tall order for the cubs pitching and defense but the model still prefers the cubs by a hair due entirely to their otherworldly defense in reality this would be an incredibly fun nlcs with two great rotations and lights out closers trying to lead their respective teams to the world series for the first time in 28 or 71 years what the model doesn t consider immense emotional gravity could pull this series out of the spreadsheets and reward the iron will of whatever team doesn t crack under intense pressure by playoff runs this is the closest matchup of all the series i m predicting capable of swinging on one slider just off the corner that the ump calls a strike or one ball that kicks up the tiniest bit of chalk down the left field line of course if kershaw and hill aren t healthy it might just be a cubs sweep leading us to some more emotional gravity in the form of world series cubs 25 10 over red sox 22 51 why the cubs win this simulation i wonder how many times pundits have predicted this world series since the matchup last happened in 1918 the storylines would be endless the team mired in a 108 year title drought against the team that broke an 86 year drought only to try for their fourth in 12 years theo epstein jon lester john lackey david ross anthony rizzo kind of and throngs of former orioles yankees and rays coming home to fenway two wild fanbases in two ancient stadiums the top flight pitching and defense of the cubs against the relentless offensive attack of the red sox but it s not that simple the cubs can pitch and field but they can hit too they ll have more confidence in aroldis chapman closing out games than boston will in kimbrel the 2010 2014 version of chapman chicago has the depth to crush boston s righties and lefties alike and jorge soler or rizzo or bryant or ben zobrist will slot in at designated hitter without making the cubs feel offensively disadvantaged at fenway it s the cubs year everyone else is just along for the ride what the model doesn t consider randomness rules baseball far more than talent or drive or momentum just as the red sox would have at least a 40 chance to win this series despite the talent gap this series is almost as likely to pit the blue jays against the dodgers or the giants against the orioles if you re a cubs fan you just watched your team win 103 games and show ample evidence that it s the team most likely to win the world series but most likely is something like a 20 to 25 chance that s baseball let s close with the ten playoff teams ranked by their aggregate playoff runs over a best of seven series 1 cubs 3rd in pitching 1st in fielding 2nd in hitting 2 dodgers 1st in pitching 3rd in fielding 4th in hitting 3 red sox 7th in pitching 4th in fielding 1st in hitting 4 blue jays 5th in pitching 5th in fielding 5th in hitting 5 nationals 4th in pitching 9th in fielding 6th in hitting 6 mets 2nd in pitching 10th in fielding 9th in hitting 7 giants 6th in pitching 2nd in fielding 10th in hitting 8 indians 10th in pitching 6th in fielding 3rd in hitting 9 rangers 8th in pitching 7th in fielding 7th in hitting 10 orioles 9th in pitching 8th in fielding 8th in hitting click here for the companion piece with player level detail for every team at every position posted in blue jays cubs dodgers giants indians mets nationals orioles predictions rangers red sox 2 comments the gift of papi and other red sox tales posted on august 30 2016 by bryan here s one i wrote for the forecaster a few weeks ago at the bottom of the page you can follow links to the rest of my work for the paper this summer __________________________________________________ think about the best christmas present you ve ever opened it must have brought you joy it probably entertained you it might have made you the envy of your friends and family but how long did it last maybe it was a treasured stuffed animal the kind that lingers in your bedroom for a few years after your other toys were ready for a trip to goodwill seven years maybe eight maybe it was a bicycle one that made you a little faster and a little more stylish than your friends and took you on countless adventures you know until you outgrew it and it started gathering dust in the garage maybe it was technology a video game console or an ipod or a tablet all great gifts but those are planned to be obsolescent after three to five years if you kept if for six you probably felt a little embarrassed when your friends saw you playing with it after they had moved on to the newest model on january 22 2003 red sox nation opened a gift that might not have made them jump around the room hugging everyone when a little known twins first baseman named david ortiz was acquired as a free agent but 14 seasons later big papi has given red sox fans all the joy of a cuddly teddy bear all the adventure of a new bike and all the entertainment of an xbox and somehow he never got old ortiz is not only a gift himself but a spectacular giver of gifts on july 23 2003 for instance a relatively svelte papi with more hair on his head and less on his face hit the first walkoff hit of his red sox career a two out pinch hit double off the yankees armando benitez that pulled the red sox to within 2 5 games of first place after years looking up at the yankees in the standings ortiz gave us the gift of hope on october 8 2004 after two walkoff hits in the rollercoaster regular season papi made his presence felt for real with perhaps his most memorable moment a walkoff two run home run off the angels jarrod washburn in the 10th inning of game 3 of the american league division series ortiz delivered boston s first playoff series win of the new millennium the gift of bliss a week later in games 4 and 5 of the american league championship series ortiz delivered consecutive walkoff hits first a 12th inning homer off paul quantrill to avoid a sweep then a 14th inning single off esteban loiaza that pushed the series back to new york is there a greater gift than the promise of more baseball in august and september 2005 ortiz hit three go ahead ninth inning home runs and a walkoff single staving off a late season comeback by the yankees and preserving what would turn out to be a first place tie a boston institution and a must watch late inning at bat by this point ortiz helped boston stave off another collapse and gave the gift of dignity papi s lone walkoff in 2007 came on september 12 against the devil rays turning a deficit into a victory and maintaining a five game lead in the division boston would hold on to that lead and win a second title in four years giving a long downtrodden city the rare gift of superiority after battling with wrist injuries and slumping through much of 2008 and 2009 and even into 2010 ortiz came back with a vengeance in 2011 batting 309 with 32 home runs and looking like the superstar who had captivated boston for most of the previous decade he stepped it up again in 2012 batting 318 with 23 homers and a 415 on base percentage giving the gift of recaptured youth in 2013 boston was suffering after the marathon attacks ortiz delivered a rousing speech peppered with choice words assuring the people of boston that the red sox would continue to be a symbol of the city s resilience and resolve throughout another championship run ortiz delivered several speeches building on the first one giving boston the gift of recovery his grand slam into the bullpen in that same year s alcs also gave us the gift of an unforgettable image bullpen cop steve horgan s jubilantly raised arms juxtaposed against torii hunter s desperately flipped legs prior to the 2016 season ortiz announced that he would retire at year end committing to one last season long grind just another year of smiles and memories would have been a blessing to fans but big papi doesn t settle he put together one of the best first half batting lines any of us has ever seen batting 322 with 22 home runs and a ludicrous 34 doubles he s re imagining what a 40 year old baseball player can accomplish playing with youthful joy and skill reminiscent of his prime the red sox are contenders again full of power and speed and youth and promise this fall red sox fans will say goodbye to david ortiz after 14 legendary seasons the gift of papi _______________________________________________________ on mookie betts s mvp credentials on the 2016 al east division race on hanley ramirez putting it together in boston on the addition of drew pomeranz and brad ziegler on betts bogaerts and bradley on the pitcher clay buchholz once was posted in red sox uncategorized leave a comment awards preview posted on august 29 2016 by bryan so august is almost over and unless you re a loyal reader of the forecaster or usa today sports weekly you haven t read anything i ve written about baseball in most of a baseball season rather than make excuses i ll offer a cursory apology and attempt to write what will inevitably be an overlong piece on who should and maybe who will win the mvp and cy young awards in each league all four races are fascinating at this point since the only player who seemed destined to run away with one or two clayton kershaw decided it was not in his best interest to play baseball all summer through back and shoulder pain that leaves everything wide open with a month of games to go where should we begin nl mvp i m starting here only because i want to finish with the al cy young the most unpredictable of the awards there are two candidates here if you care at all about defense and three if you re a voting member of the bbwaa chicago s kris bryant has done everything this year 303 batting average walks in 10 8 of his pas 35 home runs eight stolen bases and great defense mostly at third base he plays for the best team in baseball in a big city is uncomfortably attractive and has a bright future ahead of him if there are any knocks against him his strikeout rate 22 might be one and the fact that the cubs would probably still be the best team in baseball without him might be another los angeles s corey seager is similarly well rounded 322 batting average 23 homers and even better defense at an even more important position shortstop his dodgers are poised to run away with the nl west after trailing the rival giants for most of the year and he s clearly the team s best player justin turner may be every bit the sidekick that anthony rizzo is but try to sell that to a voter seager doesn t have bryant s walk rate 7 8 or his speed 1 steal and the rookie of the year award he should win unanimously might distract some voters from the fact that he s been nearly bryant s equal so at the moment he has to be the runner up washington s daniel murphy has a compelling narrative to match his numbers after crushing homers for the mets last october he signed with the rival nationals and turned them around from an underachieving read managed by matt williams team to run away division winners his 346 average could win the batting title and he s added 25 home runs but if the voters have noticed his still dismal second base defense he should get plenty of third and fourth place votes and very few in the top two slots nolan arenado has 34 homers and a bunch of rbiz and makes highlight reel plays at third but still doesn t get on base like the guys above rizzo could show up on the voters radar by year end but it s hard to imagine anyone else entering the conversation unless the writers appreciate what brandon crawford has done with his glove should win bryant will win bryant al mvp this one s a slightly deeper field with at least five legitimate contenders we ll start with the guy who always deserves the award mike trout is hitting 312 432 548 that s tied for the best obp of his career and his 21 steals are his best since 2013 both keepers of war have him well ahead of the pack the only strikes against him are the awful angels team that employs him and the writers boredom at watching him dominate the game like this year in and year out jose altuve is batting 356 while batting average doesn t say a lot about value the fact that anyone can still do that with teams employing shifts that turn well placed rockets into outs and relievers throwing 99 with nasty sliders says a lot about altuve s talent altuve s 26 steals are also pretty impressive but i m more drawn to his 20 home runs the man weighs 71 pounds he stands on a pink dora the explorer stool to wash his hands he has a better slugging percentage ...
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