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we are somehow going to go back to being an industrial manufacturing economy is pretty ludicrous moreover we wouldn t want to manufacturing jobs are increasingly becoming automated we are better off that our economy has already moved on in any event let s hope the republican party can right its ship i fear otherwise trump has basically written a playbook for future campaigns if you want to distinguish yourself in a large field of republicans be a bigot and try to mask it by saying you re just not being politically correct perhaps a new centrist conservative party will emerge one that embraces fiscal and economic conservatism libertarianism and ethnic religious and sexual diversity posted by x curmudgeon at 8 57 am no comments monday december 07 2015 the university of virginia football rip off the university of virginia announced a few days ago that it had hired a new football coach who it will reportedly pay 3 25 annually what a huge waste of money on top of this uva students are required to pay a sports fee of 657 annually one of the highest in the nation among large public universities uva students should go on strike against paying this exorbitant and useless fee to support a bloated athletic department budget here s an undeniable fact about college football 100 of games result in someone lossing in the aggregate 50 of games played will result in a loss what that means for schools like uva is that unless they can out recruit the likes of alabama clemson florida state ohio state etc they are going to be on the losing end and in the long run there is no way that uva can out recruit the major fbs football powers about the best uva can hope for is to occasionally have a decent season in the acc and go to a minor bowl heck anyone can go to a minor bowl these days but that very fact has completely devalued the entire bowl experience anyway there is a much better way for uva and similarly situated schools to go instead of participating in an ever escalating arms race that it cannot possibly win it should drop out uva ought to join other more academically oriented and or smaller schools such as duke unc wake forest temple villanova rutgers and form an ivy league type of college football conference one that promotes the true idea of student athlete the ivy league school play a ten game season with no playoffs no bowl games limited scholarships etc the season is still competitive within the league but not over the top the two teams that play for the national championship this season will likely have played 15 games apiece a ridiculous sacrifice for unpaid college kids to be asked to make for the glory of their rich alumnae uva could then slash its football budget eliminate the hated student fee and pursue its primary mission educating students it could also set an example that would encourage other schools to stop the madness and bring rationality some back to college football posted by x curmudgeon at 2 50 pm no comments new iowa poll provides further evidence that trump has nowhere to go in our last post we stated the theory that donald trump has corraled the wallace vote the lower income less educated white voters who are overtly bigoted and willing to vote that way in general elections we now have some additional evidence in support of that theory a recent poll from monmouth of iowa voters in the new monmouth poll http www monmouth edu assets 0 32212254770 32212254991 32212254992 32212254994 32212254995 30064771087 de240398 df23 47b6 8470 91977d38b749 pdf there is a tremendous amount of movement from the last poll about a month ago in particular carson has almost collapsed with the majority of his support moving to ted cruz likewise rubio has picked up some of the carson support as well as improving his position among more moderate gop voters at the expense of bush kasich fiorina and christie but trump has gone nowhere his support declined by a statistically insignificant 2 furthermore the poll shows that trump s strongest support relative to others is among republicans who have never previously participated in a caucus in iowa but say they will this year that cohort is notoriously fickle when it comes to actually turning out as opposed to drinking a beer and cursing as they watch fox news this poll reinforces our belief that trump has wrapped up support of overtly bigoted voters but in the process turned off everyone else leaving him with no room for further growth voters in iowa are changing their minds but not for trump the result is that with less than two months to go to the actual voting caucusing a new dynamic is emerging in which trump faces the danger of finishing second and maybe even third in iowa finishing third would be particularly damaging it would destroy his claim as the gop front runner further it would hasten the consolidation of republican voters in future contests such that he could also come in third in new hampshire trump will likely do better in the so called sec primary of mostly southeastern states those states have higher percentages of wallace type voters especially in the republican party thus he could garner as much as 40 in some of those states especially in the deep south but his support even in that cohort may erode if cruz and rubio emerge as the two front runners by then trump is a stubborn fellow who hates to lose we would not rule out having him take his campaign the independent route in the general election despite his pledge not to posted by x curmudgeon at 2 08 pm 1 comment thursday december 03 2015 explaining the trump phenomenon with george wallace many political pundits have tried to explain the trump phenomenon i e his staying power atop the gop polls despite statements that would sink many another candidate the explanation is really not that difficult donald trump has cornered the george wallace vote in most years that would not seem like much but in this unusual election year the wallace vote has taken on a disproportionate impact in the gop primaries few will recall that in 1968 george wallace ran for president on an avowedly racist segregationist platform it was also a populist platform economically his appeal was largely limited to lower class whites of more limited education but he nonetheless received nearly 14 of the vote nationwide and carried five southern states back in the 1960 s and 1970 s many wallace type voters identified themselves as democrats for historical reasons they tended to either stay out of national elections or vote republican particularly if someone like a goldwater was running many more were independents these days the parties have re aligned and wallace type of voters are more firmly in the gop camp although some are still independents to both the benefit and detriment of the republican party notwithstanding that realignment wallace voters have had a fairly limited impact on republican presidential nominating contests in a typical election year with maybe three serious gop candidates pursuing the presidential nomination the wallace type vote would not be so evident a leading centrist candidate such as a romney or mccain would have roughly 60 of the vote in polls in such a contest and a couple other more right wing candidates might carve up the wallace vote maybe one getting 16 and the other getting 10 in such a contest the wallace voters are out there but they in no way dominate or even significantly affect the course of the race this year is unusual there are more than a dozen candidates with no heir apparent trump went right out of the gate for the wallace type voters proclaiming in his first speech that mexico was sending rapists and murderers across the border he has continued to make a series of bigoted and racist comments since then and he has stayed at a pretty steady 20 25 in national polls of republicans in head to head polls against democrats hillary clinton and bernie sanders however trump typically polls the worst of the leading republicans but remember republicans make up roughly one third of the electorate so 25 of that one third is less than ten percent of the overall electorate basically the wallace vote these voters have always been around they probably always will be european democracies also have their hard core right wing nativist political groups who usually get around 10 of the vote barring something unusual trump is the first serious candidate for president since wallace to overtly court bigoted voters unlike wallace whose credentials as a racist were quite well established before he ran for president trump showed few signs of outright bigotry before running for office he certainly looked like a run of the mill sexist but not a bigot trump is no dummy we suspect that he made a very calculated move to corral the nativist right and has been fighting to hold on to it ever since of course that makes him practically unelectable in a general election but maybe he figured that would be a bridge to cross later in any event trump s enduring appeal is not that difficult to explain anyone can put together the hard core wallace vote if they are willing to be overtly racist and bigoted few have tried because it is not typically a winning strategy in the long run but don t expect trump s support to erode or fade as long as he keeps up what others view as outrageous statements he will maintain the wallace vote they have nowhere else to go posted by x curmudgeon at 4 11 pm no comments wednesday december 02 2015 is football a barbaric sport let me preface this post by saying that i enjoy football as much as any red blooded american and always have but these days i have a feeling that within 100 200 years humanity will view american football with the same disdain we have today for the gladiatorial contests of rome we are increasingly seeing the sheer brutality of football in the form of serious brain damage done to a large majority of players not just professional players either a recent study http www pbs org wgbh frontline article new 87 deceased nfl players test positive for brain disease found that 79 percent of all football players and 96 percent of pros had evidence of cte chronic traumatic encephalopathy which is a brain disease before the recent revelations about the problems with concussions and cte in football players all we the fans could really see is the more typical daily carnage of a football field torn ligaments and muscles and the occasional more serious injury requiring a player to be carted off the field we could live with this but can we should we live with a sport that practically guarantees its participants will suffer debilitating brain injuries it certainly makes me uncomfortable and i think if we could visualize it happening during the games we wouldn t let it continue to happen we can t continue to ignore the issue i doubt that a technological solution better helmets etc is going to emerge nor is it likely that rule changes can be effected that will maintain the integrity of the game while providing effective protection to its participants this same issue may be lurking for another sport futbol or soccer but the evidence so far is inconclusive there is big big big money on football especially professional and college ball so it will take awhile to work through to the conclusion that football is too dangerous to be viable i for one however am becoming increasingly queasy every time i tune in to watch my favorite teams literally butt heads posted by x curmudgeon at 4 34 pm no comments friday august 21 2015 why donald trump won t be president this is part one of an examination of why donald trump will not be elected president when it comes to voters pt barnum s adage rings true you can fool some of the voters all of the time you can fool all of the voters some of the time but you can t fool all of the voters all of the time for now trump has some of the voters fooled pretty much he has the voters who a tend not to vote b are angry white male bigots and misogynysts and c fall for anyone who is not a politician that is not an insignificant portion of the population but it is far from an electoral majority it is more or less the george wallace faction of american politics as we will see in a later part however trump illustrates why we should have politicians who are politicians non politicians make terrible political leaders and public servants trump has never served in any elective office and he won t serve as president let s start with part 1 of why trump won t be elected he is a spoiled brat bully most voters don t know trump s personal history yet at some point at least one of his republican opponents or a super pac aligned with one or the press will start to get this out trump is no friend of the working man he was born into a very wealthy family and given everything as a result he never had to work his way up from nothing and he hasn t required his kids to do real work either instead he has continued with a family dynasty typical of the old european feudal days where his children ivanka donald jr eric and baron are given key positions in his various enterprises regardless of their qualifications trump is also a thin skinned bully if anyone crosses him he either fires them or sues them he uses a phalanx of lawyers to intimidate his foes and if the lawyers get out of line he sues them too except for his family members no one who works for trump is safe they can be and regularly are fired for the most trivial reasons someone who is thin skinned is not going to make a good president the president has to get along with congress if he or she wants to get anything done trump is used to working without any checks or balances the most he has to deal with are boards of directors which in his case are mostly his own children or very loyal subordinates he also has to get along with other world leaders they don t owe him anything and they don t need to defer to him pissing off the rest of the world really isn t going to do anything to make america great again it s a new world donald america can t just go around invading everyone indeed our failed invasion of iraq while also pursuing a legitimate war in afghanistan both with allies showed the limits of our military power we have no real economic or military leverage over china and we aren t going to go to war against mexico which happens to be a very important trade partner trump would also need to appoint a cabinet serious people to lead important executive agencies of the federal government what is he going to appoint ivanka to state donald jr to defense eric to treasury tiffany who is in college to labor and barron who is 9 to education is he going to continuously hire and fire cabinet members who disagree with him or cross him in any way he has to get along with these people too bottom line being a thin skinned bully does not a good president make next why being a billionaire and not beholden to people making donations is a bad thing posted by x curmudgeon at 12 12 pm ...
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