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w max _ epsilon left z varphi epsilon alpha epsilon v_ e v_ u right then differentiating with respect to w displaystyle w and rearranging gives us d d w v e v u 1 r q α ϵ 0 displaystyle d over dw v_ e v_ u 1 over r q alpha epsilon 0 where ϵ displaystyle epsilon is the optimal search effort this implies that a wage increase drives up job search effort and therefore the job finding rate additionally the unemployment rate u displaystyle u at equilibrium is given by u q q α ϵ displaystyle u q over q alpha epsilon a hike in the wage which increases the search effort and the job finding rate decreases the unemployment rate so it is possible that a hike in the minimum wage may by boosting job seekers search effort increase employment taken together with the previous section the minimum wage in labor markets with frictions can increase employment and reduce the unemployment rate when it is sufficiently low however a high minimum wage is detrimental to employment and increases the unemployment rate empirical studies edit estimated minimum wage effects on employment from a meta study of 64 other studies showed insignificant employment effect both practically and statistically from minimum wage raises the most precise estimates were heavily clustered at or near zero employment effects elasticity 0 72 economists disagree as to the impact of minimum wages on employment empirical studies usually estimate the elasticity of employment with respect to the minimum wage level this is done by dividing the estimated causal effect on employment rate by the percentage change in the minimum wage economists have done empirical studies on different aspects of the minimum wage including 27 employment effects the most frequently studied aspect effects on the distribution of wages and earnings among low paid and higher paid workers effects on the distribution of incomes among low income and higher income families effects on the skills of workers through job training and the deferring of work to acquire education effects on prices and profits effects on on the job training until the mid 1990s a consensus existed among economists both conservative and liberal that the minimum wage reduced employment especially among younger and low skill workers 14 in addition to the basic supply demand intuition there were some empirical studies that supported this view for example edward gramlich in 1976 found that many of the benefits went to higher income families and that teenagers were made worse off by the unemployment associated with the minimum wage 73 brown et al 1983 noted that to that point time series studies had found that a 10 percent increase in the minimum wage was associated with a 1 3 percent decrease in teenage employment however the studies found wider variation from 0 to over 3 percent in their estimates for the effect on teenage unemployment teenagers without a job and looking for one in contrast to the simple supply and demand diagram it was commonly found that teenagers withdrew from the labor force in response to the minimum wage which produced the possibility of equal reductions in the supply as well as the demand for labor at a higher minimum wage and hence no impact on the unemployment rate using a variety of specifications of the employment and unemployment equations using ordinary least squares vs generalized least squares regression procedures and linear vs logarithmic specifications they found that a 10 percent increase in the minimum wage caused a 1 percent decrease in teenage employment and no change in the teenage unemployment rate the study also found a small but statistically significant increase in unemployment among adults aged 20 24 74 cbo table illustrating projections of the effects of minimum wage increases on employment and income under two scenarios wellington 1991 updated brown et al s research with data through 1986 to provide new estimates encompassing a period when the real i e inflation adjusted value of the minimum wage was declining because it had not increased since 1981 she found that a 10 increase in the minimum wage decreased absolute teenage employment by 0 6 with no effect on the teen or young adult unemployment rates 75 some research suggests that other factors dominate the unemployment effects of small increases in the minimum wage 76 in florida where voters approved an increase in 2004 a follow up comprehensive study after the increase confirmed a strong economy with increased employment above previous years in florida and better than in the us as a whole 77 when it comes to on the job training some believe the increase in wages is taken out of training expenses a 2001 empirical study found that there is no evidence that minimum wages reduce training and little evidence that they tend to increase training 78 the economist wrote in december 2013 a minimum wage providing it is not set too high could thus boost pay with no ill effects on jobs america s federal minimum wage at 38 of median income is one of the rich world s lowest some studies find no harm to employment from federal or state minimum wages others see a small one but none finds any serious damage high minimum wages however particularly in rigid labour markets do appear to hit employment france has the rich world s highest wage floor at more than 60 of the median for adults and a far bigger fraction of the typical wage for the young this helps explain why france also has shockingly high rates of youth unemployment 26 for 15 to 24 year olds 79 a 2019 study in the quarterly journal of economics found that minimum wage increases did not affect the overall number of low wage jobs in the five years following the wage increase however it did find disemployment in tradable sectors defined as those sectors most reliant on entry level or low skilled labor 80 a 2018 study published by the university of california agrees with the study in the quarterly journal of economics it finds that minimum wages actually lead to fewer jobs for low skilled workers the article discusses a trade off for low to high skilled workers when the minimum wage is increased gdp is more heavily redistributed toward high academia jobs 81 in another study which shared authors with the above published in the american economic review found that a large and persistent increase in the minimum wage in hungary produced some disemployment with the large majority of additional cost being passed on to consumers the authors also found that firms began substituting capital for labor over time 82 david card and alan krueger edit in 1992 the minimum wage in new jersey increased from 4 25 to 5 05 per hour an 18 8 increase while in the adjacent state of pennsylvania it remained at 4 25 david card and alan krueger gathered information on fast food restaurants in new jersey and eastern pennsylvania in an attempt to see what effect this increase had on employment within new jersey via a difference in differences model a basic supply and demand model predicts that relative employment should have decreased in new jersey card and krueger surveyed employers before the april 1992 new jersey increase and again in november december 1992 asking managers for data on the full time equivalent staff level of their restaurants both times 83 based on data from the employers responses the authors concluded that the increase in the minimum wage slightly increased employment in the new jersey restaurants 83 card and krueger expanded on this initial article in their 1995 book myth and measurement the new economics of the minimum wage 84 they argued that the negative employment effects of minimum wage laws are minimal if not non existent for example they look at the 1992 increase in new jersey s minimum wage the 1988 rise in california s minimum wage and the 1990 91 increases in the federal minimum wage in addition to their own findings they reanalyzed earlier studies using updated data generally finding that the earlier negative employment effects did not hold up in the larger datasets 85 this had major implications on policy challenging long held economic views that increasing minimum wage led to deadweight loss research after card s and krueger s work edit a 2010 study published in the review of economics and statistics compared 288 pairs of contiguous u s counties with minimum wage differentials from 1990 to 2006 and found no adverse employment effects from a minimum wage increase contiguous counties with different minimum wages are in purple all other counties are in white 86 in 1996 david neumark and william wascher reexamined card and krueger s results using payroll records from large fast food chains and reported that minimum wage increases led to decreases in employment their initial findings did not contradict card and krueger but a later version showed a four percent decrease in employment with statistically significant disemployment effects in some cases 87 card and krueger rebutted these conclusions in a 2000 paper 88 a 2011 paper reconciled differences between datasets showing positive employment effects for small restaurants but negative effects for large fast food chains 89 a 2014 analysis found that minimum wage reduces employment among teenagers 90 a 2010 study using card and krueger s methodology supported their original findings showing no negative effects on low wage employment 91 a 2011 study by baskaya and rubinstein found that federal minimum wage increases negatively impacted employment particularly among teenagers 92 other studies including a 2012 study by sabia hansen and burkhauser found substantial adverse effects on low skilled employment particularly among young workers 93 a 2019 paper in the quarterly journal of economics argued that job losses in studies like those by meer and west who found that a minimum wage significantly reduces rates of job growth are driven by unrealistic assumptions and that the effects of the minimum wage are more complex 94 another 2013 study by fang and lin found significant adverse effects on employment in china particularly among women young adults and low skilled workers 95 a 2017 study in seattle found that raising the minimum wage to 13 per hour reduced the incomes of low wage workers because they worked fewer hours as businesses adjusted to higher labor costs 96 a 2019 study in arizona suggested that smaller minimum wage increases might lead to slight economic growth without significantly distorting labor markets 97 in 2019 economists from georgia tech found that minimum wage increases could harm small businesses by increasing bankruptcy rates and reducing hiring with significant impacts on minority owned businesses 98 the congressional budget office s 2019 report on a proposed 15 federal minimum wage predicted modest improvements in take home pay for those who retained employment but warned of potential job losses reduced hours and increased costs of goods and services 99 similarly a 2019 study found that increasing the minimum wage could lead to increased crime among young adults 100 studies from denmark and spain further highlighted that significant increases in the minimum wage could lead to substantial job losses particularly among young workers 101 102 a 2021 study on germany s minimum wage found that while wages increased without reducing employment there were significant structural shifts in the economy including reduced competition and increased commuting times for workers 103 a 2010 study on the uk minimum wage found that it did not cause immediate price increases but led to faster price rises in sectors with many low wage workers over the long term 104 a 2012 uk study 1997 2007 found the minimum wage reduced wage inequality and had neutral to positive effects on employment 105 another 2012 uk study found no spill over effects from the minimum wage on higher earning brackets 106 a 2016 us study associated the minimum wage with reduced wage inequality and possible spill over effects though these might be due to measurement error 107 meta analyses edit a 2013 meta analysis of 16 uk studies found no significant employment effects from the minimum wage 108 a 2007 meta analysis by neumark found a consistent though not always significant negative effect on employment 109 a 2019 meta analysis of developed countries reported minimal employment effects and significant earnings increases for low paid workers 110 in 1995 card and krueger noted evidence of publication bias in time series studies of minimum wages favoring studies showing negative employment effects 111 a 2005 study by t d stanley confirmed this bias and suggested no clear link between the minimum wage and unemployment 112 a 2008 meta analysis by doucouliagos and stanley supported card and krueger s findings showing little to no negative association between minimum wages and employment after correcting for publication bias 113 debate over consequences edit protesters in new york city call for an increased minimum wage as part of the fight for 15 movement to require a us 15 per hour minimum wage 2015 minimum wage laws affect workers in most low paid fields of employment 27 and have usually been judged against the criterion of reducing poverty 114 minimum wage laws receive less support from economists than from the general public despite decades of experience and economic research debates about the costs and benefits of minimum wages continue today 27 various groups have great ideological political financial and emotional investments in issues surrounding minimum wage laws for example agencies that administer the laws have a vested interest in showing that their laws do not create unemployment as do labor unions whose members finances are protected by minimum wage laws on the other side of the issue low wage employers such as restaurants finance the employment policies institute which has released numerous studies opposing the minimum wage 115 116 the presence of these powerful groups and factors means that the debate on the issue is not always based on dispassionate analysis additionally it is extraordinarily difficult to separate the effects of the minimum wage from other variables that affect employment 42 studies have found that minimum wages have the following positive effects improves the functioning of the low wage labor market which may be characterized by employer side market power monopsony 117 118 raises family incomes at the bottom of the income distribution and lowers poverty 119 120 positive impact on small business owners and industry 121 encourages education 122 resulting in better paying jobs increases incentives to take jobs as opposed to other methods of transferring income to the poor that are not tied to employment such as food subsidies for the poor or welfare payments for the unemployed 123 increased job growth and creation 124 125 encourages efficiency and automation of industry 126 removes low paying jobs forcing workers to train for and move to higher paying jo...
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