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ion 1 4 gdp measurement 1 4 1 equation using expenditure approach 1 4 2 gdp deflator 1 5 measuring the supply of money 1 6 open economies 2 history toggle history subsection 2 1 before keynes 2 2 keynes and keynesian economics 2 3 austrian perspective 2 4 monetarism 2 5 new classical economics 2 6 new keynesian response 2 7 2008 financial crisis 2 8 growth models 2 8 1 climate change in macroeconomics 2 9 heterodox macroeconomics 3 austrian school macroeconomics 4 macroeconomic policy toggle macroeconomic policy subsection 4 1 monetary policy 4 2 fiscal policy 4 3 comparison of fiscal and monetary policy 5 macroeconomic models toggle macroeconomic models subsection 5 1 specific models 5 1 1 is lm model 5 1 2 ad as model 6 see also 7 references 8 further reading toggle the table of contents macroeconomics 101 languages afrikaans aragonés العربية مصرى অসমীয়া asturianu azərbaycanca تۆرکجه башҡортса беларуская тарашкевіца беларуская български भोजपुरी বাংলা བོད ཡིག bosanski català cebuano 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pdf printable version in other projects wikimedia commons wikibooks wikiquote wikidata item appearance move to sidebar hide from wikipedia the free encyclopedia study of an economy as a whole not to be confused with microeconomics production and national income macroeconomics takes a big picture view of the entire economy including examining the roles of and relationships between firms households and governments and the different types of markets such as the financial market and the labour market part of a series on macroeconomics basic concepts output and measurement growth business cycle financial crisis recession depression national accounts sna gdp gni nni output gap unemployment money and prices exchange rate inflation cost push deflation demand pull disinflation price level shrinkflation stagflation interest rate liquidity trap money creation demand liquidity preference endogenous supply dynamics and theory aggregate demand effective demand aggregate supply balance of payments expectations adaptive rational government debt investment saving microfoundations nominal rigidity shocks demand supply policies fiscal austerity government spending welfare spending stimulus tax policy monetary central bank inflation targeting open market operation quantitative easing commercial capital control free trade protectionism tariff models accelerator ad as arrow debreu endogenous growth general equilibrium dsge harrod domar is lm keynesian cross matching multiplier mundell fleming nairu overlapping generations overshooting phillips curve quantity theory of money ramsey cass koopmans solow swan taylor rule schools mainstream keynesian new monetarism new classical rbc new neoclassical synthesis saltwater and freshwater stockholm heterodox austrian chartalism mmt disequilibrium ecological market monetarism marxian post keynesian circuitism structuralist supply side people barro bernanke blanchard diamond domar fisher frisch friedman hansen harrod hayek hicks kaldor kalecki keynes klein krugman kuznets kydland lerner lucas malthus mankiw marx minsky mitchell modigliani mundell myrdal nordhaus okun phelps prescott quesnay ramsey ricardo robinson samuelson sargent smith solow stiglitz stone taylor tinbergen tobin walras wicksell related fields development economics econometrics economic statistics evolutionary economics international economics monetary economics public finance see also economics applied macroeconomic model mathematical economics microeconomics political economy publications in macroeconomics economics portal business portal v t e macroeconomics is a branch of economics that deals with the performance structure behavior and decision making of an economy as a whole 1 2 this includes regional national and global economies 3 4 macroeconomists study aggregate measures of the economy such as output or gross domestic product gdp national income unemployment inflation consumption saving investment or trade 5 macroeconomics is primarily focused on questions that help to understand aggregate variables in relation to long run economic growth 6 macroeconomics and microeconomics are the two most general fields in economics 7 given macroeconomists focus on large scale phenomena or aggregate variables they differ significantly from microeconomists who study markets and decision making at a smaller level of analysis such as firms or consumers this divide is institutionalized in the field of economics given the differences in both methods and outcomes of interest 5 macroeconomics is further divided into topics based on the time frame of analysis short term fluctuations over the business cycle medium term determinants of aggregate variables such as unemployment that are unaffected by short term shocks and long term economic growth the field also includes analysis of monetary and fiscal policies particularly where they target stabilization of certain indicators or the rate of economic growth macroeconomics as a separate field of research and study is generally recognized to have begun in 1936 when john maynard keynes published his the general theory of employment interest and money but its intellectual predecessors are much older 5 swedish economist knut wicksell wrote the book interest and prices 1898 translated into english in 1936 is considered to be the pioneer of macroeconomics while keynes who introduced national income accounting and various related concepts can be said to be the founding father of macroeconomics as a formal discipline since world war ii various macroeconomic schools of thought like keynesians monetarists new classical and new keynesian economists have made contributions to the development of the mainstream research basic concepts edit macroeconomics encompasses a variety of concepts and variables but above all the three central macroeconomic variables are output unemployment and inflation 8 39 besides the time horizon varies for different types of macroeconomic topics and this distinction is crucial for many research and policy debates 8 54 a further important dimension is that of an economy s openness economic theory distinguishing sharply between closed economies and open economies 8 373 it is usual to distinguish between three time horizons in macroeconomics each having its own focus on e g the determination of output 8 54 the short run e g a few years focus is on business cycle fluctuations and changes in aggregate demand which often drive them stabilization policies like monetary policy or fiscal policy are relevant in this time frame the medium run e g a decade over the medium run the economy tends to an output level determined by supply factors like the capital stock the technology level and the labor force and unemployment tends to revert to its structural or natural level these factors move slowly so that it is a reasonable approximation to take them as given on a medium term time scale though labour market policies and competition policy are instruments that may influence the economy s structures and hence also the medium run equilibrium the long run e g a couple of decades or more on this time scale emphasis is on the determinants of long run economic growth like accumulation of human and physical capital technological innovations and demographic changes potential policies to influence these developments include education reform incentives to change saving rates or incentives to increase r d activities output and income edit national output is the total amount of everything a country produces in a given period of time everything that is produced and sold generates an equal amount of income the total net output of the economy is usually measured as gdp adding net factor incomes from abroad to gdp produces gross national income gni which measures the total income of all residents in the economy in most countries the difference between gdp and gni is modest so that gdp can be treated as the total income of all inhabitants as well however in some countries e g those with very large net foreign assets or debt the difference may be considerable 8 385 advances in technology accumulation of machinery and other capital and better education and human capital are all factors that lead to increased economic output over time however output does not always increase consistently over time business cycles can cause short term drops in output called recessions economists look for macroeconomic policies that prevent economies from slipping into either recessions or overheating and that lead to higher productivity levels and standards of living unemployment edit main article unemployment a chart using us data showing the relationship between economic growth and unemployment expressed by okun s law the relationship demonstrates cyclical unemployment high short run gdp growth leads to a lower unemployment rate the amount of unemployment in an economy is measured by the unemployment rate i e the percentage of persons in the labor force who do not have a job but who are actively looking for one people who are retired pursuing education or discouraged from seeking work due to a lack of job prospects are not part of the labor force and consequently are not counted as unemployed either 8 156 unemployment has a short run cyclical component which depends on the business cycle and a more permanent structural component which can be loosely thought of as the average unemployment rate in an economy over extended periods 9 and which is often termed the natural 9 or structural 10 8 167 rate of unemployment cyclical unemployment occurs when growth stagnates okun s law represents the empirical relationship between unemployment and short run gdp growth 11 the original version of okun s law states that a 3 increase in output would lead to a 1 decrease in unemployment 12 the structural or natural rate of unemployment is the level of unemployment that will occur in a medium run equilibrium i e a situation with a cyclical unemployment rate of zero there may be several reasons why there is some positive unemployment level even in a cyclically neutral situation which all have their foundation in some market failure 9 search unemployment also called frictional unemployment occurs when workers and firms are heterogeneous and there is imperfect information generally causing a time consuming search and matching process when filling a job vacancy in a firm during which the prospective worker will often be unemployed 9 13 sectoral shifts and other reasons for a changed demand from firms for workers with particular skills and characteristics which occur continually in a changing economy may also cause more search unemployment because of increased mismatch 14 15 16 efficiency wage models are labor market models in which firms choose not to lower wages to the level where supply equals demand because the lower wages would lower employees efficiency levels 14 trade unions which are important actors in the labor market in some countries may exercise market power to keep wages over the market clearing level for the benefit of their members even at the cost of some unemployment legal minimum wages may prevent the wage from falling to a market clearing level causing unemployment among low skilled and low paid workers 14 17 in the case of employers having some monopsony power however employment effects may have the opposite sign 18 inflation and deflation edit changes in the ten year moving averages of price level and growth in money supply using the measure of m2 the supply of hard currency and money held in most types of bank accounts in the us from 1880 to 2016 over the long run the two series show a clear positive correlation a general price increase across the entire economy is called inflation when prices decrease there is deflation economists measure these changes in prices with price indexes inflation will rise when an economy overheats and grows too quickly similarly a declining economy can lead to decreasing inflation and in some cases deflation changes in the inflation rate may result from several factors too much aggregate demand in the economy will cause an overheating raising inflation rates via the phillips curve because of a tight labor market leading to large wage increases which will be transmitted to increases in the price of the products of employers too little aggregate demand will have the opposite effect of creating more unemployment and lower wages thereby decreasing inflation aggregate supply shocks will also affect inflation e g the oil crises of the 1970s and the 2021 2023 global energy crisis changes in inflation may also impact the formation of inflation expectations creating a self fulfilling inflationary or deflationary spiral 8 the monetarist quantity theory of money holds that changes in the price level are directly caused by changes in the money supply 19 central bankers conducting monetary policy usually have as a main priority to avoid too high inflation typically by adjusting interest rates high inflation as well as deflation can lead to increased uncertainty and other negative consequences particularly when inflation or deflation is unexpected consequently most central banks aim for a positive but stable and not very high inflation level 8 whereas there is empirical evidence that there is a long run positive correlation between the growth rate of the money stock and the rate of inflation the quantity theory has proved unreliable in the short and medium run time horizon relevant to monetary policy and is abandoned as a practical guideline by most central banks today 20 gdp measurement edit equation using expenditure approach edit one way to capture gdp or total net output is the expenditure method the expenditure approach requires aggregating four main components of spending consumer spending cs government spending gs investment is and net exports exp imp 21 cs is composed of household purchases of goods and services including investments in 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