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ry smith smwn html chapter_num 9 book reader at december 29 2022 no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest six moments first this summary of an observation made in 1850 from the liberty fund frédéric bastiat while pondering the nature of war concluded that society had always been divided into two classes those who engaged in productive work and those who lived off their backs 1850 for bastiat the two classes were those who owned everything and those who did the work next from an 1895 book by brooks adams grandson of john quincy adams the latins had little economic versatility they lacked the instinct of the greeks for commerce or of the syrians and hindoos for manufactures they were essentially land owners and when endowed with the acquisitive faculty usurers the latter early developed into a distinct species at once more subtle of intellect and more tenacious of life than the farmers and on the disparity between these two types of men the fate of all subsequent civilization has hinged for adams the two classes were farmers and usurers note that ancient rome was an agricultural society so that when adams says farmers he means basically everyone usurers aside from a 1916 essay by vladimir simkhovitch because of this peculiar character of credit in certain historical periods money lending was not a savory occupation the gentleman therefore who in our industrial and mercantile life is a pillar of society and a respectable financier is known by a different name under agricultural conditions his name is usurer again farmers and usurers in ancient rome in the 1921 book modern economic tendencies by sidney a reeve under the heading the expansion of financialization indeed the birth and growth of this practice with its variations has so revolutionalized our national methods of organizing industry during the last quarter century that a business man of 1890 would find himself at sea to day the whole aspect of our more prominent engineering houses has been transformed to meet this modern condition from that of shops or designing offices pure and simple into concerns more or less completely financial in character and function reeve does not specifically identify the classes but notes the clear advance of finance that had taken place now more than 100 years ago from the abridged 1960 edition of toynbee s a study of history the horizontal schism of a society along lines of class is not only peculiar to civilizations but is also a phenomenon which appears at the moment of their breakdowns and which is a distinctive mark of the periods of breakdown and disintegration by contrast with its absence during the phases of genesis and growth toynbee does not identify the classes but does find momentous significance in the historical moment when the difference between classes becomes a schism at amazon michael hudson s 2022 book the destiny of civilization is described a narrow rentier class has gained control and become the new central planner using its power to drain income from increasingly indebted and high cost labor and industry the american disease of de industrialization has resulted from the costs of industrial production being inflated by the economic rents extracted by this class under the system of financialized monopoly capitalism that now prevails throughout the west the costs of industrial production have increased hudson says because of increasing financial costs to employer and employee alike in our increasingly indebted world i agree hudson s rentier is the same as the usurer of simkhovitch and adams myself i just refer to the growth of debt or the growth of finance and sometimes just to interest cost the graph below does not show the cost of interest payments or any cost it shows how often the phrase interest payments arises in google books books some but not all of the works quoted above are from google books most of the quoted authors probably used the phrase interest payments at one time or another but i didn t quote any of them using that phrase so what s the graph for it shows general interest in the phrase interest payments among writers who perhaps saw increasing interest cost as a problem or perhaps saw it as not a problem or who happened to use the phrase for other reasons i m using the ngrams image as a white noise background in the foreground i added the names of the six authors quoted above and the dates of the writing i think the rising background noise adds urgency to the quotes so does the grand decline in use of the phrase since 1988 which stands as an indication of the hopefully not yet final final victory of the rentier class as described by michael hudson notice also that in 1850 when bastiat wrote use of the phrase interest payments had not yet begun to percolate click image for a bigger view at december 29 2022 2 comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest tuesday december 27 2022 arthurian debt policy our anti inflation policy is all wrong i understand the raising interest rates method of fighting inflation it reduces the money flowing into the economy from borrowing less money means less inflation i get it but it is not a good plan less money means less spending and less spending means less inflation but less spending also means less economic growth that is why inflation fighting often leads to recession but recessions are not the big problem they are only evidence of it the big problem is that this anti inflation policy applied consistently results in the consistent slowing of economic growth to maintain a policy where inflation is limited to two percent as we did for many years is to maintain a policy of low economic growth economists ask why is economic growth slow growth is slow because of our anti inflation policy demand pull inflation arises from too much demand too much spending too much money in the economy by definition in a slow economy there is not too much demand our inflation is not demand pull cost push inflation arises from too much cost our inflation is cost push some people say cost push inflation is rare but they are wrong cost push inflation is common because there is too much cost in our economy too much financial cost in response to the financial crisis of 2007 2008 policymakers pushed interest rates down as low as they could go that response was an admission that financial cost was too high the problem is not interest rates the problem is debt we have so much debt that reducing interest rates does not solve the cost problem even when interest rates are as low as they can go we think of finance as the solution to all our economic problems but that thinking has created another problem that thinking has created the high cost of finance we have many policies that make credit more available and we have many policies that encourage the use of credit therefore credit use grows rapidly but we have no policies designed to accelerate the repayment of debt therefore debt grows to extremely high levels the personal income tax provides a deduction for mortgage interest so we don t have to pay income tax on the money we use to pay the mortgage interest in effect this makes mortgage interest less costly for the taxpayer that makes it less costly to have a mortgage the policy makes it less costly for us to be in debt it encourages people to be in debt that policy also reduces the tax revenue the government receives but even if the cost to government was exactly the same it would be better to have policy that encourages taxpayers to get out of debt instead of getting a tax deduction for the interest we pay we should be getting a tax deduction for paying down our debt ahead of schedule this policy would help us get out of debt it would reduce debt it would reduce financial cost it would reduce cost push inflation it would reduce the need to raise interest rates it would reduce the policy induced slowing of economic growth and by reducing the cost of finance it would bring some vigor back to our economy it has been a long time since people talked about economic vigor at december 27 2022 no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest labels nobody says this stuff but me but that doesn t make it wrong sunday december 25 2022 friends and family happy holidays at december 25 2022 no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest friday december 23 2022 the nubs of finance this one didn t go where i thought it would see for yourself the persistent growth of finance graph 1 the persistence of memory finance the growth of finance doesn t plot out as straight as the trend line but the plot is not far off based on the graph we can say that financial corporate business has been growing by two percent of gdp every 25 years but don t forget gdp was growing over all that time finance was gaining on that gain finance was growing faster than the economy as if we didn t have enough finance already maybe you are thinking 2 in 25 years isn t much but well the change in gdp growth was half as much it was only 1 period to period for the first 25 year period the average of quarterly real gdp growth rates was 4 1 percent for the second 25 year period the average was 3 1 percent for the third 25 year period the average growth rate was 2 3 economic growth was great in the first period not so good in the second terrible in the third and finance was gaining twice as fast as economic growth was declining economists predict even slower growth in the future mckinsey says global economic growth will fall by half in the next fifty years that would put us in the neighborhood of 1 growth probably in half the time mckinsey says and right on schedule and finance will be 10 of gdp by then while we re waiting take a look at the history shown on the graph in the first 25 year period 1947 thru 1972 when rgdp growth was great the growth of finance was running on the high side of its trend line but around 1963 something changed the blue line shows the growth of finance running below the trend line until the early 1980s what happened between those low side dates the great inflation happened inflation is related to the quantity of money the q of m is related to the borrowing we do an increase in borrowing is related to an increase in the size of finance there is a connection between inflation and the size of finance in the second 25 year period 1972 1997 after 1975 or so the blue line shows finance creeping back up to trend the line runs above trend from the early 1980s to around 1987 the reagan years but then the line goes low again indicating a slowdown in the growth of finance from 1987 to around 1997 this slowdown was a consequence of the savings and loan crisis wikipedia puts that crisis between 1986 and 1995 and the graph does show the blue line creeping back up to trend again after 1995 in the third 25 year period 1997 2022 the growth of finance runs high from around 1998 thru 2006 the growth of finance this time is greater than in the previous above trend episodes the gap between red and blue lines is greater but then suddenly we had a financial crisis you can identify it by the sharp low between 2007 and 2011 on the graph coming out of the crisis finance grew below trend for five or six years and then things got back to normal for finance for the rest of us not so much here s an interesting bit just at the end of the 1998 2006 high in the growth of finance there is a little nub i don t know what else to call it nub a small lump or protruberance according to oxford languages immediately after the little nub finance fell into crisis that s not the interesting part the interesting part is the second nub the one we see in the last two years on the graph it is similar in shape to the first nub and similarly higher than the five or six years leading up to it but this second nub is bigger and more ominous plus the federal reserve is busy right now raising rates and creating the next recession just like they did before the 2008 crisis does this mean that after the new nub we get a new financial crisis oh i don t know i m no good at predicting things i m always wrong so that s good right it means we don t get another financial crisis in 2023 right oh i don t know i m no good at predicting things happy holidays anyway at december 23 2022 1 comment email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest thursday december 22 2022 the words interest payments in google books 1800 1935 and the awakening to financialization it does go up more after 1935 at december 22 2022 no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest labels financialization in the 19th century wednesday december 21 2022 the importance of the interest item click for source at december 21 2022 no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest monday december 19 2022 surprise remember 2008 and the financial crisis remember how the economy was slow for several years after that they would show a graph of gdp rising on trend then suddenly falling below trend during the troubles and then resuming a trend of increase but at a lower level as you probably know gdp was briefly good in 2021 people thought covid was over and we felt pretty good about that the graph below shows gdi gross domestic income which is just another measure of gdp graph 1 gross domestic income at december 19 2022 4 comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest sunday december 18 2022 family income by source 1988 from an article from 1995 should we ax the capital gains tax at the st louis fed the second column capital in the table shows the percentage of income from capital as opposed to income from wages as the note below the table says funny thing about that note right in the middle of it they change from explaining the table to making excuses for favorable treatment of the wealthy it s blatant you ll find a similar midstream change in the third paragraph of the article paragraph 1 introduces the topic the battle over whether to cut the u s capital gains tax is raging again this was from 1995 remember paragraph 2 argues in favor on the one side are those who argue in favor of the capital gains tax cut paragraph 3 starts out by saying on the other side however are critics but the next sentence takes the proponents side and it s all downhill from there such writing is for people who already have their vested interest and their opinion in favor it wouldn t matter except in the long run this is part of a battle over the continued existence of civilization at december 18 2022 no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest saturday december 17 2022 the true meaning of capital you might be interested in this page from cfi i was going to quote two paragraphs but the terms of use are um very corporate you still might find the page on capital interes...
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