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description= 15 posts published by Lars Syll during March 2012;
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Text of the page (random words):
e an optimum market solution while those who make mistakes in trying to figure out the ergodic process are like the dinosaurs doomed to fail and die off leaving only the survival of the fittest for a free market economy to prosper on the proof is why all those 1 far cats ceo managers in the banking business receive such large salaries for their correct decisions involving financial assets alternatively if the financial and economic system is non ergodic then there is a positive role for government to regulate what decision makers can do so as to prevent them from mass destruction of themselves and other innocent bystanders and also for government to take positive action when the herd behavior of decision makers are causing the economy to run off the cliff so this distinction between ergodic and nonergodic is essential if we are to build institutional structures that make running off the cliff almost impossible and for the government to be ready to take action when some innovative fool s discovers a way to get around institutional barriers and starts to run the economy off the cliff to keynes the source of uncertainty was in the nature of the real nonergodic world it had to do not only or primarily with the epistemological fact of us not knowing the things that today are unknown but rather with the much deeper and far reaching ontological fact that there often is no firm basis on which we can form quantifiable probabilites and expectations share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky has modern macroeconomics delivered 29 mar 2012 at 14 37 posted in economics comments off on has modern macroeconomics delivered jonathan schlefer research associate at harvard business school has written a new book the assumptions economists make on what modern macroeconomics has delivered during the last few decades although schlefer shares milton friedman s instrumentalist view on theories and models he can t really see that they have delivered what they promised useful predictions justin fox summarizes by that standard here are schlefer s judgments on the succession of theories that have dominated academic macroeconomics since the 1970s rational expectations which proposed that we re all too smart to be fooled by money printing central bankers and deficit spending governments intellectually interesting and maybe helpful in normal times whatever those are but not very good at describing or predicting the actual behavior of the economy at any time and worthless in a crisis real business cycle theory which says that economic ups and downs are all caused by technology induced changes in productivity n ot only are these models a tautology they are a tautology that turns out to be wrong they say that employment rises or falls because actors choose to work more when productivity is high and less when it s low this is nuts dsge sometimes called new keynesian models not quite as bad as they sound as they do describe an economy that moves along by fits and starts they just don t leave room for any crazy stuff share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky keen answers krugman 29 mar 2012 at 11 42 posted in economics 4 comments steve keen has answered krugman to the point brief read it share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky neoclassical economics visionless and escaping responsibility 28 mar 2012 at 23 29 posted in economics theory of science methodology comments off on neoclassical economics visionless and escaping responsibility a while ago roger backhouse and bradley bateman had a nice piece in new york times on the lack of perspectives and alternatives shown by mainstream economists when dealing with the systemic crises of modern economies economists do much better when they tackle small well defined problems as john maynard keynes put it economists should become more like dentists modest people who look at a small part of the body but remove a lot of pain however there are also downsides to approaching economics as a dentist would above all the loss of any vision about what the economic system should look like even keynes himself was driven by a powerful vision of capitalism he believed it was the only system that could create prosperity but it was also inherently unstable and so in need of constant reform this vision caught the imagination of a generation that had experienced the great depression and world war ii and helped drive policy for nearly half a century in the 20th century the main challenge to keynes s vision came from economists like friedrich hayek and milton friedman who envisioned an ideal economy involving isolated individuals bargaining with one another in free markets government they contended usually messes things up overtaking a keynesianism that many found inadequate to the task of tackling the stagflation of the 1970s this vision fueled neoliberal and free market conservative agendas of governments around the world that vision has in turn been undermined by the current crisis it took extensive government action to prevent another great depression while the enormous rewards received by bankers at the heart of the meltdown have led many to ask whether unfettered capitalism produced an equitable distribution of wealth we clearly need a new alternative vision of capitalism but thanks to decades of academic training in the dentistry approach to economics today s keynes or friedman is nowhere to be found and now philip mirowski has an equally interesting article on opendemocracy net explaining why neoclassical economists don t seem to have suffered one whit for the subsequent sequence of events a slow motion train wreck that one might reasonably have expected would have rubbished the credibility of lesser mortals read it share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky centerpartiet och lärarlönerna 27 mar 2012 at 10 41 posted in economics education school comments off on centerpartiet och lärarlönerna det nyliberala centerpartiet med en devot margaret thatcher och ayn rand beundrande annie lööf i spetsen har föreslagit att ingångslönerna skall sänkas för att skapa jobb som jag skrivit om tidigare är detta en helt galen idé med liten eller ingen förankring i ekonomisk klokskap men man kan också undra över hur det står till med partiets ideologiska renlärighet centern hävdar nämligen också att staten ska ha en aktiv roll i lönebildningsprocessen det låter inte så varken liberalt eller nyliberalt och varför anammar inte partiet samma inställning när det gäller skolan och lärarlönerna hade det inte varit konsekvent att också kräva statlig styrning av lärarlönerna öronmärkning av statliga bidrag till kommunerna så att pengar villkoras till att också innebära lärarlönehöjningar återförstatligande av skolan jag bara undrar share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky sänkta löner löser ingenting 24 mar 2012 at 14 53 posted in economics 14 comments för varje månad som går vinner konjunkturnedgången i sverige i oavbruten styrka de närmsta åren hotar bjuda på en långvarig konjunkturnedgång i den svenska ekonomin i detta minst sagt svåra läge när ekonomin åter börjar hänga på repen har vi de senaste veckorna kunnat läsa hur man från både regerings och arbetsgivare håll föreslagit att man ska försöka lösa krisen med hjälp av lönesänkningar i en eller annan form inte minst ungdomslönerna har varit på tapeten egentligen ska man nog främst se detta som ett tecken på hur lågt förtroendet för det ekonomiska systemet sjunkit från gårdagens nyliberala våtdrömmar om ekonomins kommandohöjder har vi sjunkit till den ekonomiska verklighetens bankkrascher företagsnedläggelser och galopperande arbetslöshet för det är ju självklart inte så att lönesänkningar räddar jobb i en situation där krisen som började kring 2007 08 långt ifrån är över varken globalt eller här hemma har vi mer än något annat behov av stimulansåtgärder och en ekonomisk politik som leder till ökad effektiv efterfrågan på samhällsnivå ökar lönesänkningar bara risken för att ännu fler kommer att stå utan jobb att tro sig kunna lösa kriser på detta sätt är en tillbakagång till den förfelade ekonomiska teori och politik som john maynard keynes slutgiltigt gjorde upp med redan på 1930 talet det var en politik som gjorde miljontals människor världen över arbetslösa trettiotalsdepressionen åtföljdes av deflation som visserligen kunde innebära höjda reallöner men bara för dem som lyckades behålla sina jobb visst kan det kortsiktigt fungera för enskilda företag och fackföreningar att satsa på frysta eller sänkta löner men det är ett atomistiskt felslut att tro att en generell lönesänkningspolitik skulle främja ekonomin tvärtom som keynes visade blir den aggregerade effekten av lönesänkningar katastrofal de sätter igång en kumulativ prissänknings spiral som får företags och enskildas skulder att realt öka eftersom skulderna nominellt inte påverkas av den allmänna pris och löneutvecklingen i en ekonomi som alltmer kommit att bygga på ökat låntagande och skuldsättning blir detta inkörsporten till en deflationskris detta i sin tur leder till att ingen vill låna pengar och kapital eftersom betalningsbördan över tiden blir för betungande företag blir insolventa investeringarna minskar arbetslösheten ökar och depressionen står för dörren låt oss tala och tala tydligt risken för skulddeflation kan aldrig bagatelliseras ser vi på svenska data över inflationsförändring och bnp för åren 1980 2008 kan vi konstatera att för varje punkt som den reala bnp understiger den potentiella bnp så tenderar inflationstakten att minska med en halv punkt detta måste tas på fullt allvar om gapet mellan real och potentiell bnp ökar de närmsta åren innebär detta att deflationen snart riskerar bli ett faktum det överhängande problemet för svensk ekonomi är att vi inte får fart på konsumtion och kreditgivning förtroende och effektiv efterfrågan måste återupprättas vi kan självklart inte bara sitta med armarna i kors och vänta på att ovädret drar vidare men att föreslå krislösning byggd på sänkta löner är att skriva ut recept på än värre katastrofer vill regering och arbetsgivare ta samhällsansvar och inte låta enfald få ersätta analysförmåga och besinning måste de klart och tydligt ta avstånd från allehanda kortsiktiga och kontraproduktiva lönesänkningsstrategier skall man ta sig ur djupa ekonomiska svackor krävs vassare bättre och effektivare instrument som exempelvis en aktiv och offensiv finanspolitik share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky austerity in depressed economies 23 mar 2012 at 11 44 posted in economics comments off on austerity in depressed economies paul krugman has a niece piece today on his blog commenting on the recently published paper by brad delong and larry summers on fiscal policy in a depressed economy even though the long run effects of austerity policies may be minimal they certainly impose large costs here and now self evident conclusion stop cutting and start stimulate at least as long as we are stilled trapped in a liquidity trap i ve been posting various versions of a scatterplot showing the relationship between one indicator of fiscal policy and growth since the crisis began here s a version restricted to eurozone countries and countries maintaining a fixed exchange rate against the euro with many of the countries labeled all data from eurostat still is this the kind of outcome you would have expected if you believed what the austerians were saying or is it what you would have expected if you d been reading those of us horrified by the turn to austerity what gets me about all of this is the incredible unwarrented arrogance of the austerians they decided that they knew better than textbook macroeconomics even though none of them had predicted the crisis or even seen the possibility of such a crisis and the wreckage now lies all around us share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky new keynesian macroeconomics and involuntary unemployment 21 mar 2012 at 16 25 posted in economics 7 comments people calling themselves new keynesians a gross misnomer ought to be rather embarrassed by the fact that the kind of microfounded dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models they use cannot incorporate such a basic fact of reality as involuntary unemployment of course working with representative agent models this should come as no surprise if one representative agent is employed all representative agents are the kind of unemployment that occurs is voluntary since it is only adjustments of the hours of work that these optimizing agents make to maximize their utility being a new keynesian it ought to be of interest to know what keynes had to say on the issue in general theory 1937 chapter 2 he writes the classical school maintains that while the demand for labour at the existing money wage may be satisfied before everyone willing to work at this wage is employed this situation is due to an open or tacit agreement amongst workers not to work for less and that if labour as a whole would agree to a reduction of money wages more employment would be forthcoming if this is the case such unemployment though apparently involuntary is not strictly so and ought to be included under the above category of voluntary unemployment due to the effects of collective bargaining etc the classical theory is best regarded as a theory of distribution in conditions of full employment so long as the classical postulates hold good unemployment which is in the above sense involuntary cannot occur apparent unemployment must therefore be the result either of temporary loss of work of the between jobs type or of intermittent demand for highly specialised resources or of the effect of a trade union closed shop on the employment of free labour thus writers in the classical tradition overlooking the special assumption underlying their theory have been driven inevitably to the conclusion perfectly logical on their assumption that apparent unemployment apart from the admitted exceptions must be due at bottom to a refusal by the unemployed factors to accept a reward which corresponds to their marginal productivity obviously however if the classical theory is only applicable to the case of full employment it is fallacious to apply it to the problems of involuntary unemployment if there be such a thing and who will deny it the classical theorists resemble euclidean geometers in a non euclidean world who discovering that in experience straight lines apparently parallel often meet r...
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