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ng rises crowding out is a phenomena where investors plow money into government debt instead of that issued by corporations right now we don t have crowding out but if foreign creditors demand more interest from our government that wil mean private corporations will have a much harder time finding the money they need to grow in a downward spiral less growth in turn means fewer jobs a weaker economy and a lower tax base which will force the government to borrow more cut spending or just print money borrowing through the issuance of debt is easy to do now but as the financial stability of the united states government declines with growth in debt creditors largely foreign government sovereign wealth funds will demand more interest it doesn t matter whether or not corporate debt is riskier at this point interest rates are relative government issued debt is considered risk free though it really isn t like any issuer of debt governments are rated on their ability to repay if tax receipts are rising the government s ability to repay looks quite good therefore when an economy weakens its fiscal strength weakens as tax receipts are down the best example of this are local governments many of whom have seen a dramatic decrease in tax revenues unlike state and local governments national ones can sell their debt based on the balance of payments the net sum of exports of goods and services less imports if a country exports a lot more than it imports it will a mass a pile of currencies from the nations that purchase its exports china has massed a big pile of dollars see this graph from mintlife visualizing the us china trade relationship to see how it works china can choose to hold or spend them on something like us government debt over time has done just this and over time assembled trillions of dollars in us treasuries in effect financing the us government s deficits up til now the chinese appear to have been willing to receive nothing other than paper ious which is what dollars essentially are in exchange their investment then came the cash for clunkers and the general migration away from dollar denominated deposits all of a sudden the dollar wasn t good enough we had to come up with something real in this case vehicles for scrap steel by imposing payment demands on us china is exercising an unprecedented level of clout chinese control over our national debt poses a threat to the independence of our foreign policy if the chinese think we should do something they can pressure us by threatening to sell off our debt or simply not to buy more which would force interest rates higher with the size of the chinese dollar holdings they d be committing financial suicide to sell them but they d be hurting us as well china couldn t sell off us bonds if it made its intentions to divest known in a crisis they d be unable to sell dollar denominated debt at all no one would offer anything for them other than dollars they could in the process decimate the value of us government issued debt although as the 1 hoarder of that debt they d suffer the most financial harm as a result the chinese would also have to contend with rapid dollar devaluation meaning they have to intervene massively buying dollars to prop up the fixed rate of exchange they have with it now rather than working at cross purposes selling dollar denominated debt while buying the dollar the chinese would likely let their currency rise this would greatly spike the price of chinese imports turning wal mart into tiffany s almost overnight neither china nor the u s wants this kind of change we re tied to each other at the hip at the same time the chinese have made it clear that they re not willing to observe the status quo indefinitely labels debt dollar fiscal insolvency inflation war spending posted by jbpeebles 8 58 pm 1 comments tuesday november 10 2009 escalation a liability for obama barack obama has been consistent in one thing his policy in afghanistan while obama promised change from bush era policies for a lot of things he was always a hawk on afghanistan swayed by barack s charisma many of his followers wrongly assumed that change meant reason in afghanistan obama did promise a departure from iraq if his hawkish position on afghanistan is a constant we can hope he ll be equally consistent on iraq without change the outcome is clear more devastation in iraq and afghanistan afghanistan is occupied by a rapidly growing american military force while iraq s appears to be gradually declining without an exit though thanks to the bush era sofa agreement with iraq the us military has basing rights and plans to keep 50 000 troops there indefinitely the constitutionality of sofas in general is questionable as they re de facto treaties with other countries which must be approved by the senate iraq s wasn t the base where a battle a few months ago in a remote base that took 10 american lives has been abandoned if they died protecting it why abandon it a hallmark of our vietnam experience was taking then giving up territory look at the movie hamburger hill for an idea of the impact on morale that kind of fighting strategy made killing from afar is far easier than confronting the enemy up close starting in the gulf war our military was criticized for fielding a nintendo type force using high tech weapons far from their targets we ve expanded the 9 11 retort to include pakistan who s ravaged by drone attacks by anonymous triggermen presumably american operatives in some faraway location these strikes are said to target terrorists but we have no way of knowing just how many civilian deaths are caused in this sense anonymous drone attacks are a convenient accountability dodging method one the cia probably would have loved to have during vietnam vietnam was marked by low morale and led to fragging intentional friendly fire i can think of no more visible sign of distress within a military than when they start killing each other we had the modern equivalent of a fragging occur down at fort hood the other day the alleged shooter hasan can t be justified in murder except perhaps in some twisted sense that he was protecting muslims many of the casualties were coming back not going out so i don t think he can claim to be protecting muslims there have been numerous incidents of afghan soldiers murdering american and nato troops in cold blood similarly in vietnam many in the south vietnamese army harbored sympathies for the enemy and contributed to many lost american lives obama s been sold on the mistaken belief that more troops will mean a different result obama has raised n strength pentagon jargon for the number of troops does the equation of n times firepower multiplier equal a number capable of winning the war and what is the impact of time how does extending the time frame increase the likelihood of winning i think vietnam our longest war prior to afghanistan showed that the longer a force occupies a country the less it s tolerated and the more nationalistic and pan muslim support builds in opposition israel s ongoing animosities with its arab neighbors and the palestinians may give an indication of kind of deep seated animosity we ll have to contend with being infidels in a muslim land discussing the afghan war with a supporter recently proved a touchy subject when i said we were losing he refuted me saying we were winning next when i asked why we there my ideological opposite came short of any reason plan or goal how then can the military achieve its goal to win if it doesn t have coherent goals i m not going to pigeonhole supporters of the war saying they re neo liberals even if they are nor will i say that obama is a pure hawk instead i ll say that supporters of escalation in afghanistan suffer from a lack of good reasons for the actions of their commander in chief why escalate if we d seen more progress with time i guess extending our presence would be a positive but the escalation hints at the inability to achieve our goals not success which would encourage a draw down in time the reasons will come floating to the surface out of stream of sewage regurgitated by the lamestream media if nothing else the washington establishment stage manages wars albeit to an audience that appears majority antiwar both in iraq and afghanistan consummate media master obama axelrod and his crew of showmeisters will try to repackage the lie that escalation will help us politically the escalation is a gamble the tradeoff for escalating might be swaying republican voters and democratic conservatives who ve made their visceral anti abortion positions known in the recent health care bill the reagan democrats may be easily convinced that escalation is necessary but i doubt the democratic base will rally behind obama even if he keeps his promises about iraq obama thinks he can gain some republican votes by escalating but this is true only if the republican candidate is to the left of obama on other issues a socially moderate candidate like a mccain might lose the conservative democrats to obama based on the militarist expansionary position in afghanistan a conservative s conservative need not fear obama s hawkishness he can always pander ever farther to the right on foreign policy militarism and ultranationalism any republican candidate will endorse militarism escalation in a rush to grab votes on the right the republicans will try to appear even more hawkish than obama no matter how far right he strays closet militarists dinos democrats in name only will support the escalation bothered by big government reagan democrats will secretly vote against obama anyway based on their predilection to support republicans in matters of national security limited to a duopoly the net result of the status quo is a persistent absence of a candidate opposed to escalation in this regard the establishment wins it continues to impose its consensus favoring escalation no matter which of the two candidates are elected it s kind of like goldman sachs they win no matter who wins the protest vote might make a huge impact in 2012 based on disillusion based on obama s rightward turn after his election take out 3 4 for a nader mckinney paul and perhaps a number of betrayed feeling liberals sitting out the election and obama s second term is out yet if the republican candidate is ultranationalist anti environment etc a bush maybe the lesser of evils thing will work in obama s favor personally from what i know about the far left and hardcore libertarians the protest movement will oppose obama the political winds may have already shifted two governorship and a house seat were at stake in recent elections republicans won in virginia and new jersey the media played down the significance of the losses but i m guessing the dnc is worried the health care bill has provided the republicans with a lot of ammunition three democratic congressmen in indiana were going to vote against the measure concerned about the possibility of federally funded abortions an amendment to the bill persuaded baron hill d in to vote in favor ellsworth in the western part of the state is seeking over a billion dollars for a new terrain i 69 through the southwestern portion of the state funding might be jeopardized by the imminent budget shortfall we have considering the 1 4 trillion deficit we re running then again what another billion of top of that i don t expect obama to win in 2012 and i think the midterms are shaping up into a catastrophe for democrats the democrats lack of conviction and leadership in foreign policy sends a double message unfortunately a lack of a real antiwar candidate will steer the military industrial complex onward depleting further our national treasure and sacrificing ever more american lives eventually we ll have to change our policy in afghanistan and downsize or even get out but we re there because of ignorance and apathy among americans and their willingness to surrender our foreign policy to well established foreign policy lobbies like that of israel obama s been too bush like in the lack of prosecutions on practices like extraordinary rendition even if our courts don t hold participants responsible for the illegal practices like harsh interrogations other nations can an italian court just found 23 american former cia employees guilty making them fugitives from justice obama s defended warrant less eavesdropping the practice of spying on americans we re building massive data warehousing facilities that will track and store communications between americans and few people seem to care if we continue to lose our civil liberties it ll be because we ve offered them up in exchange for promises of security i can understand why many people might support an escalation but i ll never agree with them the reasons for disagreeing really don t matter any more we ll simply have more war no matter who s in charge the washington establishment is too firmly rooted and the depth of american ignorance and apathy legend it s only when things get bad enough that americans will understand that their government works not for them but for corporations many of which who thrive off the ongoing death machine that our out of control pentagon has become results of these wars will be years in coming and probably financial depravity will be the outcome like all wars before it the government s overspending will force inflation onto the public a stealth tax with inflation lenders will lose while borrowers cheif among them the government itself will be able to repay good money with bad energy prices are headed straight up thanks to the carbon tax and trade policies that are heading through congress americans will have to use energy more efficiently or face higher taxes on their consumption of carbon based energy the overspending will eventually manifest into hyperinflation flooding the world with dollars already the dollar has dropped to a multi year low against other currencies spending their dollar reserves india just bought tons of gold from the imf china is awash in dollars for the first time they publicly scolded the us on our spending reuters a danger faced by any inter government lender the chinese are rightfully concerned that we ll just print up we owe and send it to them producing far less than we import our nation is unable to export our way back into prosperity so we re left to push piles of money around or work at reduced wages in what s sold as a service economy no wonder we re experiencing so much unemployment by allowing free but unfair trade foreign competition has gutted our manufacturing sector how best to restore the economy recently i saw an idea that we should fully nationalize the banks government could loan out at reduced rates directly to the public it s been said that for the amount of the tarp loans we could have bought outright most of our nations banks with a staggering amount of derivatives still on the banks books nationalization will be a l...
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