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tivity gains u s steel needed a price increase to cover their rising interest costs but the negotiations apparently were all about productivity and the cost of labor at november 26 2022 no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest labels an alternative to the wage push inflation thesis thursday november 24 2022 the us economy in the early years after wwii the 1960 paper by paul samuelson and robert solow and the issue it addressed were the topic of james forder s 2010 paper economists on samuelson and solow on the phillips curve the question they were addressing was that of the explanation of the inflation of the 1950s particularly the period 1955 57 and the implications it had for macroeconomics mild though that was later to seem this creeping inflation as it was called was at the time a source of much anxiety this graph shows the years 1948 to 1978 the blue line shows inflation using the urban data that seems to serve as a nationwide measure the red line shows the interest rate that the federal reserve raised or lowered to control inflation graph 1 blue is inflation shown as percent change from year ago of the cpi red is the federal funds interest rate for which the federal reserve set targets after the end of the second world war it took a few years to get inflation stabilized but inflation blue did quiet down to below 1 by the end of 1952 the federal funds rate red doesn t appear on the graph until july 1954 but we can reasonably assume interest rates rose enough to reduce early 1950s inflation and create a recession in mid 1953 my proxy for fedfunds rises from the end of the 1949 recession to the start of the 1953 54 recession the red line shows the fedfunds rate following the same pattern after the 1953 54 recession persistent increase from the end of one recession to the beginning of the next rates only fall as the ensuing recession slows the economy and starts to bring inflation down the graph shows the federal funds interest rate rising almost immediately as the 1953 54 recession ends the graph shows that the interest rate kept going up even as prices fell for a whole year the blue line inflation went below zero in september 1954 and didn t surface again until september 1955 as lorraine lee rightly says counterinflationary policy is basically severe austerity the increase in the blue line between 1955 and the 1957 58 recession was the inflation that samuelson and solow were writing about in 1960 the creeping inflation and again almost immediately after the 1957 58 recession the fed started raising the interest rate the fedfunds rate hit bottom in july 1958 and started going up inflation continued falling until april 1959 and only rose after that this brings us to the 1960 recession the 1960 recession began in april 1960 and ended in february 1961 cq researcher provides wage policy in recovery a remarkable article by h b shaffer dated june 21 1961 the opening paragraph satisfaction over multiplying signs that the country is fast leaving the recession behind is currently clouded by fears that too vigorous a recovery will set in motion a new inflationary surge the risks in the situation have impelled the kennedy administration to make special efforts to prevail on labor and management to keep wage price levels steady as business activity expands shaffer s words emphasize the bipolar approach to inflation management that is visible in the historical data march april may june it took four months to go from things are great to oh no things are too good and shaffer s article was written even before june was out there was much anxiety about inflation as james forder said and this brings us to president kennedy at november 24 2022 2 comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest labels an alternative to the wage push inflation thesis tuesday november 22 2022 jfk assassination 22 november 1963 fifty nine years i was in algebra class when they announced it some things you don t forget at november 22 2022 no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest a detail my habit is to use the inflation measure fred calls cpiaucsl because i memorized the name of it and because it was fred s most popular inflation measure when i was looking for a name to memorize it still is their most popular inflation measure but that inflation measure gives the cpi for all urban consumers i figure most consumers are urban consumers i used the urban measure for a long time without worrying that it might be different from the national measure but now i have decided to take a look at it and that is our adventure today on the graph i show the first dataset as a wide bright blue line and the second one narrow and bright red so i can see how the one line matches the other but it is easier to see if the image is bigger to see a bigger version of the graph below click on the graph image to access the graph at fred click the word graph in the caption graph 1 by eye red and blue differ a little in 1954 1962 1967 and 1970 but the two lines are similar enough that i figure the urban measure is a good match to the national measure i should say though that i don t really know if the blue is a national measure it sounds national from the dataset title consumer price index in the united states but if it is a national measure i don t really know the values used for the graph are annual the red line starts in 1948 and ends with the most recent annual data to date 2021 the blue starts in 1951 i don t know why and ends in 2012 this series was discontinued i like it because the red line sticks out at both ends i think that makes the graph easier to read not that it matters but fred s name for the blue dataset is usacpibls i didn t memorize this one but it is easy enough to parse for the usa it is a measure of cpi from the bls sometimes the names are easy like that if you remember the 1970s inflation you know cpi is consumer price index it was on the news all the time with this current inflation i don t know that they emphasize cpi so much and bls is the bureau of labor something i m not happy that i don t know if the blue line is supposed to represent national data so i found another dataset that sounds like it might be national inflation consumer prices for the united states i don t know if this one represents national data either but i figure two weak links are better than one because i m using them in parallel not in series i m using two chains to carry this analysis each with one weak link fred s name for this one is fpcpitotlzgusa i didn t even try to parse it for this graph i used the one above at fred and just swapped datasets the colors and line widths worked themselves out automatically my second chain graph 2 this time the blue line starts in 1960 and ends with the red one in 2021 and here blue matches red so well it makes me wonder if they just used the red data and cut off the first few years to make the new dataset look different so i still don t know about urban vs national but i m going to keep using the for all urban consumers measure of inflation and i m gonna figure that it works as a measure of inflation nationwide at november 22 2022 2 comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest labels an alternative to the wage push inflation thesis sunday november 20 2022 monetary interest paid by households as a percent of disposable personal income graph 1 monetary interest paid by households as a percent of dpi 1946 2021 arthurian theory interest cost to households rose from 1 of dpi in 1946 to 2 by 1951 those costs rose to 3 by 1956 4 by 1963 and 5 by 1977 that s fact not theory usually a normal yearly pay raise is around 3 they say but the source graphs behind that claim only go back to 1998 lacking better data let s suppose the 3 annual pay increase was typical going all the way back to 1946 in 1956 households were paying 3 of their disposable income just to cover their interest costs in other words the pay raise that year barely covered the cost of interest in later years the annual interest cost kept rising reaching 8 by 1986 but the old reliable pay raise kept plugging along at 3 annual maybe we should allow for inflation which started climbing in the mid 60s raises would have increased that s just part of the inflation does this affect this analysis no because the pay raises are reflected in the disposable income numbers and the interest paid is shown as a percent of disposable income inflation did increase our income yes but even so monetary interest paid increased faster than income in those years that s what the graph shows anyway the inflation mostly impacts the graph and the economy after 1965 or so and by then the annual interest cost amounted to more than four and a quarter percent of income and was still climbing even if pay raises amounted to more than 3 annual the interest paid by households each year increased faster than after tax income all through the 1950s and 60s and 70s as the graph shows reviewing what we know annual interest costs after 1956 were higher than annual pay raises interest costs made gains on income every year so the cost of interest all by itself could have been enough to get the great inflation going in the 1960s as people struggled many even going on strike to keep their income from falling behind their costs thus the rising cost of finance created the great inflation that s arthurian theory everyone else blames oil or wages this same cost problem the cost of finance would have affected the business world one price increase that comes to mind is the 1962 increase by u s steel president kennedy was not happy about that one my goal here as always is to show that the rising cost of finance is the one factor we can reasonably hold responsible for the decline of the us economy in the decades since the second world war at november 20 2022 no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest labels an alternative to the wage push inflation thesis friday november 18 2022 if supply side economics doesn t solve the problem we could always try this another slavery quote from arnold j toynbee when attica on solon s initiative led the way from a regime of mixed farming to a regime of specialized agriculture for export this technical advance was followed by an outburst of energy and growth in every sphere of attic life the next chapter of the story however takes a different and a sinister turn the next stage of technical advance was an increase in the scale of operations through the organization of mass production based on slave labor here the technical advance was offset by a grave social lapse for the new plantation slavery was a far more serious social evil than the old domestic slavery it was worse both morally and statistically it was impersonal and inhuman and it was on a grand scale it eventually spread from the greek communities in sicily to the great area of southern italy which had been left derelict and devastated by the hannibalic war wherever it established itself it notably increased the productivity of the land and the profits of the capitalist but it reduced the land to social sterility for wherever slave plantations spread they displaced and pauperized the peasant yeoman as inexorably as bad money drives out good the social consequence was the depopulation of the countryside and the creation of a parasitic urban proletariat in the cities and more particularly in rome itself i was gonna leave it at that but what follows is too good to leave out decline of civ stuff not all the efforts of successive generations of roman reformers from the gracchi onwards could avail to rid the roman world of this social blight which the last advance in agricultural technique had brought upon it the plantation slave system persisted until it collapsed spontaneously in consequence of the breakdown of the money economy on which it was dependent for its profits this financial breakdown was part of the general social debacle of the third century after christ and the debacle was doubtless the outcome in part of the agrarian malady which had been eating away the tissues of the roman body social during the previous four centuries thus this social cancer eventually extinguished itself by causing the death of the society upon which it had fastened these technical advances solon s and the plantation slavery were by any measure economic developments economic issues are always most crucial and as your negative reaction to that assertion will likely confirm are the least recognized as crucial until troubles get particularly bad as hayek said in the road to serfdom the common view that economic matters are matters of secondary importance only is altogether unwarranted at november 18 2022 no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest thursday november 17 2022 toynbee on the growth of government from a study of history a classic example of this necessity of stepping ever farther into an ever widening breach is afforded by the administrative history of the roman empire during the two centuries following its establishment the roman secret of government was the principle of indirect rule the hellenic universal state was conceived of by its roman founders as an association of self governing cities with a fringe of autonomous principalities in regions where the hellenic culture had not yet struck political root the burden of administration was to be left to these local authorities this policy was never deliberately revised yet if we resurvey the empire at the end of two centuries of the roman peace we shall find that the administrative structure has been in fact transformed the client principalities have been turned into provinces and the provinces themselves have become organs of direct and centralized administration the human resources for the conduct of local government gradually ran dry and the central government faced with this increasing dearth of local administrative talent found itself constrained not only to replace client princes by imperial governors but to put the administration of the city states into the hands of appointed managers by the end of the story the whole administration of the empire had passed into the hands of a hierarchically organized bureaucracy toynbee explains the growth of governance and authoritarian control as the necessity of stepping ever farther into an ever widening breach we have an ever widening breach the attack on the capitol was fruit of that poisonous tree there is a lot of focus on that attack and a lot of fret all the focus is on the january 6th result of the breach none of the focus is on the cause of the breach which to my mind is the unrelenting decline of the us economy and on the failure of democrats even to acknowledge that decline a lifetime ago factcheck org evaluated president trump s inaugural address i wr...
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