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e didn t get the blame wages did come to think of it the policies that encouraged all that borrowing didn t get the blame either i wonder why that is at april 19 2021 1 comment email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest labels apr13 saturday april 17 2021 the implications greater than s s could imagine from the tuesday post writing of samuelson and solow s 1960 paper james forder said the question they were addressing was that of the explanation of the inflation of the 1950s particularly the period 1955 57 and the implications it had for macroeconomics from steve waldman in comments i agree that one episode is not a proof of anything but despite that the episode in question provoked massive and in my opinion unwarranted and very destructive changes in the views of macroeconomists i m trying to counter those changes here from waldman s post since the 1970s macroeconomics as a profession has behaved like some freud obsessed neurotic constantly spinning yarns about how the trauma of the 1970s means this and that keynes was wrong nairu independent ha central banks a new keynesian synthesis made of output gaps and inflation and no people at all just a representative household reveling in its microfoundations self serving tall tales of the great moderation all of them at april 17 2021 no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest labels apr13 thursday april 15 2021 doublechecking again proofreading tuesday s post in the wee hours i came to the end far as i know which isn t far i admit the cause of the 1955 57 inflation was never discovered that kind of thing bothers me i d prefer to know then i remembered steve waldman s comment we have just one big boom to look at big boom i thought little boom i should use little boom in a search so i did at google search the little boom in the labor force participation rate in 1955 ten results searching the page coincidentally turned up 10 occurrences of 1955 nine of them are in phone numbers the other one was in my search text hey that means one of the ten hits google turned up might be worth checking nope it redirects to some place i don t want to be so no news i still don t know if the cause of the 1955 57 inflation was ever found except of course i found it now would i rather have found the cause to be cost pressure caused by the growth of finance that is what my guess would have been on 7 april i was still looking at financial cost push in the years before 1965 that post was withdrawn because one of my graphs was bad but there is a big difference in financial cost as you go from 1955 to 1965 i still think the growing cost of finance was the small problem that created cost issues which look like conflict inflation i still think it was growing financial cost that got the great inflation started but if the 1955 57 inflation was not caused by the cost of finance that s probably good it would mean that finance was not already too big in the 1950s and that would be a useful thing to know at april 15 2021 1 comment email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest labels apr13 tuesday april 13 2021 answering an old question what caused the creeping inflation of 1955 57 lfpr labor force participation rate rising lfpr as a cause of falling productivity dietrich vollrath the late 1960s early 1970s coincide with the flood of baby boomers into the labor market are the returns to experience much more severe than we think from mincer regressions and so their entry lowered productivity growth before creating a spike in the late 90s as they really reached their peak steve randy waldman the crucial economic fact of the 1970s is an incredible rush into the labor force what was stagnant in the 1970s was productivity which puts hours worked beneath gdp in the denominator boomers headlong rush into the labor force created a strong arithmetic headwind for productivity stats falling productivity as a cause of inflation janet yellen my reading of the evidence suggests that the predominant medium term effect of a slowdown in trend productivity growth would likely be higher inflation tejvan pettinger if firms become less productive and allow costs to rise this invariably leads to higher prices rising lfpr falling productivity rising inflation hank m gracchus jr a change occurred in the late 1960s early 1970s however as labor productivity slowed under the then current regime labor income continued to grow in line with the economy maintaining its share of total income because productivity was no longer rising as much as previously though the return on capital consistent with a constant share of total income could not deliver an adequate rate of return a profit squeeze ensued this drove firms to increase prices leading to larger wage demands and cost push inflation waldman s not a monetary phenomenon the root cause of the high misery index 1970s was demographics plain and simple the nation faced a simple choice employ them and accept a lower rate of production per worker or insist on continued productivity growth and tolerate high unemployment the result was high inflation and would have been under any scenario that absorbed the men and the women of the baby boom in so short a period of time comments at waldman s slotowner writes i am concerned unanimous writes as slotowner says the history of a single episode is not really proof steve randy waldman writes slotowner unfortunately stats for the civilian labor force begin in 1948 we have just one big boom to look at and importantly steve randy waldman writes unanimous i agree that one episode is not a proof of anything but despite that the episode in question provoked massive and in my opinion unwarranted and very destructive changes in the views of macroeconomists i m trying to counter those changes here i think the evidence for a demographic explanation is at least as strong as any evidence of misguided policy and that post volcker triumphalism may well just be the fundamental attribution error in action there was a short lived but extremely rapid increase in the labor force participation rate in 1955 graph 1a labor force participation rate graph 1b percent change from year ago lfpr graph 1c detail showing the extraordinary 1955 increase i do not know why this anomalous increase occurred so the thoughts that follow could be ridiculous there was a drop in the labor productivity growth rate that appears to be related to and perhaps even caused by the lfpr increase the productivity drop does not appear to extend beyond the 1958 recession but i couldn t say graph 2 labor productivity quarterly 1950 1962 using the initial bounce of growth which typically follows recessions as start and stop points for short period comparison real gdp growth between bounces of the 1954 and 1958 recessions was noticeably low relative to earlier and later periods graph 3 average of annual rgdp growth rates including bounces omitting the fore and aft bounces from the calculations the average of annual growth rates shows an undeniable low between the 1954 and 1958 recessions graph 4 average of annual rgdp growth rates excluding bounces in evaluating rgdp growth in the 1950s keep in mind the high growth rates that were common in the early post wwii period this graph highlights rgdp growth during and after the 1955 lfpr increase graph 5 real gdp growth 1950 1962 there was despite the slow economy an unexplained creeping inflation during 1955 57 i want to say that acting through a decline in productivity the 1955 increase in the labor force participation rate was responsible for this inflation graph 6 three measures of inflation 1950 1962 the deflator starts rising a bit early but the pce price index bottoms out in 1955 q1 just where you might expect and the cpi rise starts after june 1955 writing of samuelson and solow s 1960 paper james forder said the question they were addressing was that of the explanation of the inflation of the 1950s particularly the period 1955 57 and the implications it had for macroeconomics nearing the end of their paper samuelson and solow wrote we have concluded that it is not possible on the basis of a priori reasoning to reject either the demand pull or cost push hypothesis or the variants of the latter such as demand shift if they couldn t distinguish what type the inflation was it s got to be safe to say they could not identify the cause of the inflation they wrote in 1960 it s been a long time far as i know which isn t far i admit the cause of the 1955 57 inflation was never discovered it is still an open question what caused the creeping inflation of 1955 57 the cause of that inflation was the 1955 increase in the labor force participation rate so that makes twice that an increase in lfpr created cost push inflation by causing a fall in productivity twice in the us data the link to the excel file with the bounce graphs at april 13 2021 3 comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest labels apr13 older posts home subscribe to posts atom why economists must think in terms of the cycle of civilization i ve been hearing the phrase late capitalism for so long that i m forced to conclude that the very concept of late cap looks like vigor to me went to harbor freight the other day when i left there was so much traffic i had to fight my way out of the parking lot at one p m on let s see if this one gets me into trouble as i write this it is mid october in an even numbered year elections are weeks away yesterday i saw republican candidates heavily adver not the rate of interest but the cost of finance not inflation but the decline of growth it is surely true that the price level cannot rise without a corresponding increase in the quantity of money or velocity or use of credit the most important difference between cost push and demand pull inflation i m not a fan of diagrams in economics but sometimes this is a screen capture of slide 36 from a slideshare presentatio federal debt is the measure of economic troubles in the private sector not the cause of them the cause is excessive private sector debt private debt is too big and too costly it slows the economy it slows income growth it makes decent jobs scarce we lost our greatness to excessive private sector debt we can regain american greatness by reducing private debt if we do so before china has all the greatness note that we have many policies to encourage the use of credit and no policies to encourage repayment of debt selected fred data free ebooks forever fadedpage levy institute publications art s old vigor page click folder tab to view contents quick quotes on debt sbt hover for the quote click for the source steve keen sbe thomas palley sbe palley again same source sbe arthurian spontaneous sbe arthurian sbe id a j toynbee a study of history unabridged vol 1 page 1 abridgement vol 1 thru 10 id mostly old cost push stuff 1937 the general theory of employment 1958 the phillips curve paper 1959 charles schultze recent inflation in the united states 1960 richard lipsey on the phillips curve 1960 samuelson and solow problem of achieving and maintaining a stable price level 1962 arthur okun potential gdp its measurement and significance 1968 friedman s presidential address the role of monetary policy or alt link 1970 milton friedman the counter revolution in monetary theory 1974 f a hayek prize lecture the pretense of knowledge 1977 thomas m humphrey on cost push theories of inflation in the pre war monetary literature id papers by johannes a schwarzer sbt samuelson and solow on the phillips curve and the menu of choice a retrospective 2013 sbe growth as an objective of economic policy in the early 1960s the role of aggregate demand 2014 sbe price stability versus full employment the phillips curve dilemma reconsidered 2016 sbe retrospectives cost push and demand pull inflation milton friedman and the cruel dilemma 2018 sbe id papers by norikazu takami 1950s cost push sbt baffling inflation cost push inflation theories in the late 1950s united states 2014 sbe the baffling new inflation how cost push inflation theories influenced policy debate in the late 1950s united states 2015 sbe id archive org links sbt archive org home sbe note at archive org the upper right corner search is for all of archive org to search the open book click the search icon on the left side of the window and use quotes around search phrases sbe historical statistics thru 1970 part 1 arrighi g the long twentieth century dalio r economic principles how the economic machine works delong h a profile of mathematical logic r c k ensor england 1870 1914 finley m i the ancient economy friedman m free to choose friedman m money mischief kissinger h the meaning of history reflections on spengler toynbee and kant leuchtenburg w franklin d roosevelt and the new deal leuchtenburg w the perils of prosperity lot ferdinand the end of the ancient world and the beginnings of the middle ages montagu a toynbee and history critical essays and reviews mullineux a w business cycles and financial crises quigley the evolution of civilizations rostovtzeff the social and economic history of the roman empire terborgh george the new economics tooke thomas an inquiry into the currency principle toynbee aj a study of history volumes i vi abridged wanniski jude the way the world works sbe id timelines industrial capitalism sbe mercantile capitalism sbe 10000 years of economy sbe id blog themes and on the pedestal these words appear my name is ozymandias king of kings look on my works ye mighty and despair nothing beside remains shelley toynbee maintained that the fate of civilizations is determined by their response to the challenges facing them stefan zenker the ideas of economists and political philosophers both when they are right and when they are wrong are more powerful than is commonly understood indeed the world is ruled by little else j m keynes economic policy encourages credit use and discourages the repayment of debt that s how we in the private sector got so indebted nathan becker attempts to describe complex interactions in the economy with overly simple adages can lead to incorrect conclusions meyer and tasci i remarked that a plurality of suffrages is no guarantee of truth where it is at all of difficult discovery as in such cases it is much more likely that it will be found by one than by many descartes i have thought it important not only to explain my own point of view but also to show in what respects it departs from the prevailing theory j m keynes blogthemes blog archive 2025 136 october 4 and debt forgiveness was biden s plan hume on the arbitrary power of tyrannical government hume quoted by keynes last chapter first sentence september 19 august 12 july 6 june 10 may 11 april 23 march 19 february 11 january 21 2024 100 december 15 november 9 october 14 september 10 august 7 july 12 june 7 may 3 march 13 february 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