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ion to get involved in old world shit shit that concerns neither the native american stock nor immigrants from places like mexico or nigeria imagine that an eighteen year old moves out of his parents house because they are constantly fighting and getting violent with each other and the first thing he does upon taking up residence at a friend s house is to cajole his friend to intervene in his parents fights even though the friend doesn t know his parents and has no idea why they fight or whose side to be on not cool on one hand i don t begrudge hamid s or the taiwanese girl s desire to defend their people indeed i agree with a lot of what hamid writes regarding secular liberalism and islam tribalism is a natural human instinct and only progressive urban whites seem inclined to disavow their own kind on the other hand i do begrudge hamid s and the taiwanese girl s desire to hijack their new country s systems to address their old countries problems for them america is a tool and they don t seem particularly interested in what s good for america or americans in their decision to wield that tool for their own tribal ends staking a position in the chinese taiwanese fight is certainly not in america s interest nor is meddling in the sunni shia vortex but of course that ship has already sailed but as an american hamid shouldn t be exacerbating the problem by cajoling his new countrymen into joining his side in a fight that does not or should not involve us as david goldman has long pointed out the traditional bargain for immigrants to america was that they gained liberal access to all the benefits of american society on condition that they gave up their old world identities and stopped being involved in old world bullshit of course different ethnic groups honored this bargain on different time frames the fenians were futzing about as late as 1880 by and large however the bargain was honored by the italians the germans the greeks the slavs it was even honored by the first wave of mexicans in the middle of the twentieth century my grandparents made sure their kids grew up speaking english and dating gringos america is indeed an immigrant nation but historically it has been a nation of immigrants willing to give up their immigrant identity and to forge a new american one grounded in commerce a protestant work ethic and anglo political structures the trend lately is just the opposite more and more immigrants refuse to give up their old world identities they adopt an american identity to be sure but it is the quintessential hyphenated american identity bemoaned by the bull moose dual identity is the emerging norm immigrants children learn english although that may begin to change in california they dress like americans they consume american media however thanks to new technologies they also keep a foot in the old world which means we now have a growing immigrant population that is bringing more and more old world shit to the united states like hamid and the taiwanese girl let me admit that unfortunately america s political elite has if not created at least made worse a lot of the old world shit that immigrants are fleeing america is not as innocently isolationist and non imperialist as it was before the world wars as always the exploits of the washington establishment have consequences for everyone but themselves a kevlar bubble may 16 2016 uncategorized 2 comments i may be late to the party but is this moldbug in 2006 predicting the 2008 recession i don t know enough about finance to understand the details of the conversation but cpdos seem to be a play on credit default swaps so moldbug is obviously playing the prophet here the big short oversold the narrative that no one saw this coming plenty of people saw it coming but their voices were drowned out by the bulls and in fairness to michael lewis it is true that only his protagonists actually bet their money on the housing bubble bursting at any rate here s moldbug s comment in full posted 30 december 2006 the big picture in cpdos is that they are a classic example of government failure nothing like a cpdo could possibly exist in an unregulated economy of course that doesn t mean the best choice for this far from unregulated economy isn t to find some way of regulating the damn things out of existence but fortunately this is not my job cpdos exist because nrsros exist rating agencies moody s s p are not private actors they are granted enormous official authority imagining the market price of nrsro status sold with no questions asked for example to a company which could shake down its clients for ratings is one way to conceive of the scale of this delegation of power in a transparent professional system of government such as ours authority of this kind must never be personal and arbitrary old john moody perhaps could tell his customers that joe s railroad was a shoddy outfit run by notorious shysters whose bonds shouldn t be touched with a ten foot pole no matter how many payments they ve made if his successors rate jrx they have to justify their result with some serious math nothing else would be compatible with nationally recognized status as mises pointed out in the 20s excessive dependency on calculation is the general flaw in central planning the planners are constantly being forced to calculate things that cannot possibly be calculated credit default probabilities especially aggregate spread projections are a classic example so moody s can t issue a report saying that these cpdo things just don t smell right it can t call stratfor get a ballpark number on the chance of an israeli iranian war and factor that into the probability of a generalized credit panic it has to do what it does run the things through its models which predict as usual future results from past performance and it s not just that moody s has to do this it s that it can do this because it is effectively a government agency it has transferred all of its risk for this behavior to the state it is uncle sam that will take the hit if the models fail and rightly so moody s only existential risk is failure to comply with its own properly approved policies and procedures fortunately uncle sam is perfectly capable of insuring the risk of the models he can after all print more dollars which will then be used to buy bonds keeping those spreads svelte moreover with this same mechanism he can stimulate the economy keeping the people who actually have to make their payments flush this is a perfect example of an expansionary ratchet it is a political mechanism that causes immediate pain if the presses are stopped hyperinflation happens because the political cost of a liquidating recession exceeds the political cost of continuing around the spiral systems that increase sensitivity to default like the system that the cpdo is gaming make the spiral harder to escape in other words the more cpdos are outstanding the more stress the financial system will suffer in the case of a sharp credit spread widening that overpowers the stabilizing reaction when the cpdos automatically react by selling protection the cpdo machine sets up a critical point below which it is a stabilizing feedback loop that causes spreads to converge as cpdos gear up and above which it is a thoroughly destabilizing one that causes them to diverge as cpdos max out and fail it is in other words major bubble skin the lovely old metaphor of a bubble which really just means disequilibrium can easily be extended to other materials than the usual soapy water if your bubble is made out of latex for example it can get much bigger and sustain a much higher internal pressure it is harder to pop but it makes more noise when it does with cpdos and ultimately with the power of the printing press the bubble is the size of the hindenburg its interior could easily be mistaken for the atmosphere of jupiter and its walls are kevlar and nanotubes as steve says it is very hard to break and it is very important to note that it is not just the personal whim of bulimic cbs that supports it it itself enforces exactly that bulimia the bubble skin is not really the critical point of the cpdos it is the fact that cbs cannot allow spreads to reach that critical point for all the hawkish talk they will accept any level of consumer price inflation first it is much easier to tweak the index again maybe it could just be the gcpi the game console price index measured in triangles per second per dollar and suffer the occasional human interest story in the times or post about how the man on the street thinks prices are too high despite the fact that there is no inflation so fasten your seatbelts everyone if i am even close to right there are no brakes on this thing and we are headed north in a hurry it may be a happy 2007 indeed independence sovereignty and networks may 5 2016 uncategorized 6 comments nick land s latest musings on independence dependence and connectivity got me thinking about networks briefly land recasts the left right dichotomy not in terms of individualism and collectivism but in terms of independence and dependence while the left he writes is enthused by interdependency while merely accepting a degree of comparative independence the right in reverse is enthused by independence but accepts a comparative degree of inter dependency independence land continues is a rough synonym for sovereignty i would add that independence is a rough synonym for power independence means i can do or get what i want of course power is always constrained by the laws of physics if not by other humans so a degree of interdependency is always there to constrain independence however ideologies emphasize one constraint over the other do we emphasize inter dependence and admit a degree of independence here and there or do we emphasize independence and admit a degree of inter dependence here and there wendy chun a media professor at brown provides the ultimate left emphasis on inter dependence in her book programmed visions in the book s conclusion chun attempts to define freedom as an immersion in larger human collectives arguing that true political freedom may in fact rightly curtail economic and civil freedom by undoing the autonomous subject she illustrates her point with a story from an individual who taking part in a mass protest in the philippines was at first frightened by but eventually at one with the throngs of humanity surrounding her i was caught in the thick waves of people far from the center of the rally i could barely breathe from the weight of the bodies pressing on my back and sides after what seemed like an eternity of extremely small movements slowly slowly there appeared a clearing before me i was grateful not because i survived but because i experienced the discipline and respect of one for the other of the people there was no pushing no insulting everyone even helped each other and a collective patience and giving way ruled the night deepened while resting on the sidewalk i felt such immense pleasure safe from danger free happy in the middle of thousands and thousands of anonymous buddies thus the individual found safety and happiness amidst an anonymous mass of humanity that operated upon a principle of giving way taken in a moral direction the story might illustrate a pseudo buddhist parable on the importance of abandoning one s ego so that others might live and that all might live together in peace however taken in a political direction which is where chun takes it the story illustrates an ideological emphasis on inter dependence that only allows a small degree of independence to exist within the confines of and only when subordinated to that larger system of dependence being immersed in a massive crowd whether or not it s orderly is for me a vision of hell but for chun it becomes a metaphor for the philosophical ground of political freedom at the expense of independence someone like me who would be darting for the nearest exit the nearest way out of that crowd is in chun s estimation subverting larger political freedoms through my insistent obsession with independence however let s reorient the story and its object lesson a little and totally undermine what chun is trying to do with it the individual in the crowd we read feels safe and at peace with the crowd only once it has given her a way through or made room for her that is she finds freedom in the crowd only once she has been given space and granted a place of independence presumably what she does in that space is up to her so as long as what she s doing doesn t invade other spaces she is also granted a place of sovereignty maybe she wants to invite some other people into her space she s not a rugged individualist after all she will probably not invite everyone into her space though because then it s not her space anymore she s not an idiot either the mass of humanity is a given how we divide that humanity in space and i m thinking here both in literal geographic terms as well as more abstract political terms determines our ideology network theory gives us some basic terms given the mass of humanity we have three ways to divide it one node rules and subordinates all the other nodes a centralized network all nodes are clustered discriminately into autonomous communities a decentralized network or more commonly a scale free network or all nodes are in equal connection an ordered network in the centralized network independence and sovereignty are granted only to one node be it a person i e monarchy or a small elite i e oligarchy in a decentralized network local clusters are granted independence from other local clusters and sovereignty exists only locally it does not expand outward i e patchwork governance in an ordered lattice like network sovereignty is nonexistent a function of the fact that hierarchy is nonexistent and every node is equally not subordinated chun would have us believe that every node in this network would therefore be free but by that same token every node is equally positioned to control every other node i e the world is just as easily its own tyranny as its own utopia chun i imagine wants a political system that embodies an ordered lattice like network no hierarchy no clustering no radical differences in node connection or degree the ordered network is the leftist inter dependency ideology personified given the networks above we might also posit that differences among right wing political ideologies are partially reducible to a preference for centralized or decentralized sovereignty networks is there one ring to rule them all or does each ring only work among its own people is true independence granted to a privileged elite or does independence simply mean a freedom from other communities a freedom from other ways of doing things i have simplified network theory quite a bit here but it gives us a starting point by which political ideology and in particular independence and sovereignty can be e...
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