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Text of the page (random words):
se nz data it would have been impossible stats new zealand just makes it too hard to access nz microdata so we wind up with nz researchers using american data and helping advance global understanding of what s going on in the us hayden s thesis was out in 2014 it s 2026 stats nz just put out a couple of releases looking at earnings among lgbt populations i wanted to check whether the lesbian wage premium held up in nz data so i went to have a look and it s just a big mess first we get a press release highlighting substantial differences in age adjusted average annual personal disposable income between the lumped together lgbt population and the non lgbt population with the transgender and non binary population having the lowest age adjusted annual disposable income that sounds like discrimination right but then you check the second page the one listed as a related page that folks might not click on that one notes that the lgbt population reports disability rates of 25 6 compared to 15 8 for others 37 9 of the transgender and non binary population were identified as disabled disability will mean lower earnings stats nz s big headline press release figures adjusted for age but didn t adjust for disability that seems like an important omission people might chalk differences up to identity that are at least partially differences by ability a cross tab so you could compare earnings by disability status across the categories could help but this is one of those if we didn t pre supply the cross tab it is unknowable things i downloaded the excel sheet hoping that i might be able to check for differences in earnings between heterosexual and homosexual men and between heterosexual and homosexual women but that appears to be impossible in their gender splits by row in the cross tabs male and female include the transgendered identifying with each category heterosexual males including the cisgendered and transgendered earn more than males including the cisgendered and transgendered who identify with a sexual minority that latter category lumps together people identifying as gay those identifying as asexual and many others there could be substantial differences within that bundling so i can t have a clean read on earnings differences between non trans straight men and non trans homosexual men and among females including cisgendered and transgendered mean personal disposable income for heterosexuals is suppressed stats nz does this when reported numbers are too low but they do report earnings among females reporting as sexual minorities which is difficult to understand the sample size tends to be smaller for minority groups but even if it were not suppressed it wouldn t be helpful because i wouldn t be able to get difference between cisgendered heterosexual women and cisgendered homosexual women i don t know if us data has gotten any worse over the period but nz data sure hasn t gotten any better i ve emailed snz asking whether any of this is knowable there could be good reasons for lumping groups together as they have they have a lot of potential categories and splitting out each one would just mean everything would wind up being suppressed but splitting out the main obvious categories would seem pretty possible posted by eric crampton at 12 45 00 0 comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest labels statistics new zealand superannuation affordability options lyric waiwiri smith at the spinoff asked me what i thought the options might be for dealing with rising superannuation costs her story s here along with comment from max rashbrooke and shamubeel eaqub my most preferred option is ongoing increases in immigration rates coupled with shifting to cpi indexation of super benefits and indexing the age of eligibility to healthy life expectancy i did some rough ballparking if net migration were around 1 8 people per person turning 65 we could maintain current ish ratios of working age people relative to 65 that would have to increase over time as life expectancy increases but there is a real and obvious play here nz is aging europe as aged immigration new zealand could explicitly advertise for young productive migrants in places where those young workers are being predated upon by their country s elderly voters even more heavily that they are here getting a small proportion of young and productive workers from large countries could postpone the inevitable here almost indefinitely remember that one big reason that nz super costs haven t already blown out is higher net migration than treasury had expected in the 2000s consider the number of people aged 65 per population aged 20 64 on that basis nz is around 29 5 and germany is already at 39 8 france at 40 2 italy at around 42 this kind of play is self sustaining on the receiving side the more young germans who leave for younger shores the more who ll want to leave and there d be advantages to being in the first wave of leavers because if the flow gets too large their government might start setting exit taxes i asked gpt to come up with some sample immigration nz campaigns targeted on this basis places where the demographics make nz attractive by comparison it did a reasonable job the top five if this were a real campaign i d put serious money into 1 germany the cleanest combination of size ageing pressure worker burden education and plausible nz fit 2 uk not the purest demographic case but probably the best cost per success market the sales pitch is less escape pension collapse and more same language better lifestyle credible residency pathway and fewer inherited fiscal messes 3 france strong burden story and strong human capital especially if targeted at engineering health tech science agriculture and public sector professionals tired of state sclerosis 4 south korea this is the big non european play the message writes itself your country is about to experience the steepest demographic cliff in the oecd move before your peak earning years become the funding mechanism 5 poland czechia slovakia a regional central european campaign could be very productive educated mobile demographically pressured and plausibly attracted by an english speaking high income destination outside the eu rat race posted by eric crampton at 11 48 00 0 comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest labels superannuation tuesday 2 june 2026 another non tariff barrier i do not see the problem here i do see a lot of ways of creating a problem though andrew bevin writes for newsroom ministers were warned of trade implications relating to mandatory health star ratings before choosing to vote against the development of the scheme if health star ratings are made compulsory by australasian food ministers and new zealand manages to opt out australia would likely block imports of non compliant food that s according to advice given to the cabinet economic policy committee ahead of new zealand s vote against developing a mandated health star rating system earlier this year if nz made the fsanz health star ratings compulsory kiwi firms would have to comply so would anyone else wanting to sell food in nz international outfits would then either eschew our market as not being worth the hassle run limited production runs meeting the fsanz standard at higher cost both because of the smaller run and because they d lose flexibility to shift products across markets as market conditions change or make kiwi retailers put stupid little stickers onto everything manually all of those would limit competition here and push up costs if nz did not make the health star ratings compulsory kiwi firms wanting to export to australia would have to comply and that s fine they can do that they could even sell the same version of the pack in nz and product from other countries could come in too if they met our biosecurity standards why create another non tariff barrier posted by eric crampton at 13 42 00 0 comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest labels regulation thursday 28 may 2026 assorted budget bits a few minor bits i noted in looking through the budget won t bother going through the headline stuff that will have been well covered elsewhere they expect to save 1 97 billion by 2029 2030 through the public sector transformation project reducing staffing numbers there will be pressure on that figure despite the substantial increase in public sector staffing both in absolute numbers and as fraction of population over the past six years statistics new zealand gets a large budget increase both opex and capex to modernise the idi at the same time it will be held to baseline savings like the rest of the public sector the minister for statistics might want to watch that snz doesn t siphon idi money out for other activities they re fixing part of the fif regime as it faces domestic investors to match the fixes made for those moving to nz taxing unrealised gains was always dumb good that they re fixing this the proposal for reducing the risk of online harm to children puts 30 75m over four years to develop policy and possible regulatory options to improve children s online safety subject to future policy and funding decisions this is just for the policy development work it seems like far more money than necessary for a project that shouldn t be being undertaken in the first place they ve set a defence technology accelerator as part of the defence capability plan sounds neat only gets 16 1m over 4 years maybe if its first year looks promising funds from the online harm thing could be shunted over here customs is getting 15 3m opex and 19 5m capex to respond to increased smuggling text says it s aimed at illicit drugs and 35 9m in third party levy revenue could affect tobacco excise too a whole page of the befu supplementary materials goes through the weaker outlook for tobacco excise they ve sharply reduced forecast tobacco excise revenue as compared to the hyefu forecast 1 58 billion over the forecast period they note a weakened demand profile but they don t get into whether it s a drop in smoking or a shift to illicit markets it s a drop in demand for excised tobacco in either case but they do note an offsetting minor increase in forecast tobacco revenue over the same period and this is kinda funny the excise rates for heated tobacco products htps were reduced by 50 on 1 july 2024 recent data show that the decline in duty from the lower htp duty rates has not been as large as was expected furthermore subsequent research suggests that future htp take up will not be as large as was previously assumed remember the giant beat up on casey costello in 2024 for the tax break for big tobacco it was all based on that very stupid estimate that treasury stuck in the forecasts nobody should have believed the figure at the time it was ludicrous i don t know whether hon verrell actually believed it or whether it just gave her a convenient line to beat up on the government for its changes to tobacco policy neither s great my column on the stupidity of that figure is here i think treasury is likely overestimating alcohol excise returns recall that snz reports very sharp reductions in per capita alcohol available for consumption those figures are based on excise returns treasury has applied a one off drop to current levels but then a reversion to prior pre covid trend growth in excise i think covid and glp 1 inhibitors and general trends in youth risk aversion have caused a structural break total alcohol available for consumption on the snz figures peaked in 2021 at 36 3 million litres and have declined since despite population growth 2025 was only 31 3 million litres overall it ll take a heroic effort to stick to the plan they have and that ll only get us to structural surplus by 2029 posted by eric crampton at 17 56 00 0 comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest labels budget new zealand monday 25 may 2026 sezs as policy trial areas a decade ago i coauthored a report looking at how greater localism and subsidiarity could be achieved in a very centralised country where local councils have variable capabilities we settled on policy trial areas the basic gist was as follows first a community would pitch a policy trial area a special economic zone with different policy or regulatory settings more suitable for local conditions the idea would come from the local community some national level policies are really unsuitable to some local conditions that community would work with treasury to come up with indicators ahead of time how could we tell if the trial were working what side effects might we need to watch as well successful trials would often mean higher tax revenue for central government lower dependence or both share the gains with the originating community as a policy discovery payment then let it extend to other communities asking to take it up failed trials would fail at small scale central government would rule out any proposals that could not in principle be extended to other similar communities if the trial were successful so tax concession areas would be right out different consenting processes could be fine a successful trial could extend to similar consents in other places i have not read the proposal for marsden point but i do not recognise our proposal in bryce edwards critique of what s been proposed at marden point edwards writes a lobbyist s paradise the economist michael reddell saw the obvious problem the moment jones first floated the idea if there were any substance to the sez concept reddell wrote the policy seemed likely to be a lobbyist s paradise and perhaps that of political party donors recipients he recalled that the new zealand initiative had pitched something very similar a decade ago reddell s lobbyist point is the one that nz first does not want to engage with the moment you start designating discretionary zones with bespoke tax treatment and accelerated consenting you create exactly the kind of high value low transparency politics in which the lines between commercial interest and political access become blurred who decides which company qualifies as being inside the zone who decides what activities achieve the aims of the zone who appoints the panel on what criteria under what review process these are not pedantic questions they are the central governance questions and they are conspicuously absent from anything peters or jones have said in public nz first of all parties used to have something to say about that sort of arrangement to answer edwards questions within the framework that my shop proposed 1 nobody decides which companies qualify as being inside the zone the zone applies to activities within the zone s boundaries if the company s activities are inside the zone then those activities would qualify 2 nobody would be deciding on activities except when the zone is struck a proposal to for example ...
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