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t his case either american league 10 kyle seager mariners 9 robinson cano mariners seattle s 2nd and 3rd basemen had eerily similar years with wrc s of 138 and 133 respectively positive but not elite defensive numbers and negative but not atrocious baserunning numbers cano 39 homers to seager s 30 relies more on power to drive his offensive value while seager 10 2 walk rate to cano s 6 6 depends more on patience 8 adrian beltre rangers i m not convinced there will ever be another year when beltre isn t one of the ten best players in the american league in 2016 at age 37 he hit 300 358 521 with typical beltre defense the one great player on a surprisingly great team his last hit was his 2 942nd his last home run his 445th a legend 7 david ortiz red sox war disagrees with this pick ortiz finished 22nd among al position players in fwar and 17th in rwar offensively though ortiz was the second best player in baseball his 315 401 620 line equating to a 163 wrc he hit 38 home runs and 48 doubles in his age 40 season that s got to be worth some bonus points right 6 francisco lindor indians it s tempting to cheat lindor up a few spots after his postseason coming out party but this seems like the best spot for his regular season exploits he batted 301 with 15 homers 19 stolen bases and the best defense in the american league and it seems he may still go up from here 5 manny machado orioles when machado broke into the league everybody knew he could play shortstop the orioles decided to sign jj hardy presumably to keep the pressure off and let machado hone his hitting skills so he became the best defensive third baseman in baseball this year with hardy injured machado played 45 games at short and was as good as just about anyone in the league before moving back to third and making breathtaking play after breathtaking play throw his 37 homers on top of the second best infield defense in the al and he s one of the league s five best players if he can take 25 more walks next year he might be the second best 4 jose altuve astros being 5 6 has probably kept a lot of really good athletes from plying their trade professionally it was probably a hindrance to altuve at various times in his young life in 2016 though it won him the sporting news player of the year award over at least three more valuable players sure he hit 338 stole 30 bases and even hit a surprising 24 home runs he also provided less defensive and baserunning value than any of the three names to come i don t mean to sell altuve short he s a great player coming off a truly great season but let s not make a mountain out of a molehill 3 josh donaldson blue jays narratives can be a funny thing last year the blue jays surged to the front of the american league east for the first time since it s been a five team league in his first year on the team donaldson had a 154 wrc hit 41 homers and won the mvp award in 2016 the blue jays contended for the division title all year and made the playoffs led by donaldson s 155 wrc and 37 homers he might not finish in the top five in mvp voting it s true that his defense and baserunning were down a tick this year costing him a win above replacement and that the blue jays finished second but donaldson was basically the same guy this year as last year 2 mookie betts red sox perhaps to a greater degree than usual some of the game s greatest skills are concentrated with a few players fangraphs tells us that mookie betts was the game s most valuable baserunner in 2016 contributing 9 8 runs above average baseball reference tells us he was the best fielder at least according to his positional peers with an incredible 32 fielding runs thanks in large part to coming to bat 730 times betts was also the third most valuable offensive player in the american league if only he weren t playing in the same league as this guy 1 mike trout angels there s not much left to write about this guy he was by far the best hitter in baseball with a 315 441 550 line while playing half his games in a pitchers park he hit 29 homers and stole 30 bases he s still an above average outfielder and added more value on the bases than any major leaguer other than betts there s mike trout and there s everyone else posted in angels astros blue jays braves cubs dodgers giants indians mariners nationals orioles postseason awards rangers red sox rockies 2 comments forecasting october with playoff runs posted on october 3 2016 by bryan if you ve paid any attention to baseball over the past decade or so you know that playoff results are governed by something other than logic there is no formula that can identify a great playoff team october baseball is driven by some combination of heart guts grit and randomness a little heavier on the last one that paragraph served as the introduction to my 2015 mlb playoff preview an excuse perhaps for the inevitable failure of the playoff runs model i d just created as it turns out playoff runs worked pretty well whether by chance or due to some underlying validity i correctly predicted the winners of both wild card games three of four division series and the mets beating the cubs in the nlcs a result that probably surprised many observers all three series i missed were the result of the royals playoff magic perhaps i should rest on those laurels tell everyone i knew the mets were better than they looked and shut the whole thing down but i d rather try again and risk going 2 7 this year and losing both of my followers on twitter here s a link to last year s piece which goes into more detail about the process than i will below essentially playoff runs assigns roles to 25 players on each playoff team assumes a certain number of innings pitched plate appearances and defensive chances for each role and uses fangraphs runs above replacement for pitchers and hitters and runs above average for fielders and baserunners to determine how much value each player will provide over those innings and plate appearances like any prediction system and particularly one that tries to standardize each team s roster construction it has its flaws but i prefer it to a simple observation of each team s 2016 results because it gives full credit to the players on the roster right now leaving off injured players while giving full credit to called up prospects and trade acquisitions rather than simply ranking the teams based on their total scores let s mock the playoffs by assuming the team with the better playoff runs score for the appropriate length series 1 game best of five or best of seven wins every time here s guessing the result won t be as surprising as last year s american league wild card game blue jays 3 43 over orioles 3 06 why the blue jays win this simulation the blue jays basically do everything one can do on a baseball field better than the orioles do baltimore hits more home runs but not enough to offset the blue jays major advantage when it comes to avoiding outs baltimore has the better bullpen particularly at the back end but that s not enough to offset toronto s far better starting pitching neither team is using its best pitcher in the wild card game but marcus stroman stacks up better than chris tillman mostly thanks to a better walk rate baltimore by a miniscule margin is the weakest team in the playoffs according to playoff runs what the model doesn t consider buck showalter has gotten far more out of the orioles than their talent would suggest all year if baltimore can keep the game close in the early innings brad brach and zach britton could be the perfect antidote to the donaldson bautista encarnacion murderer s row national league wild card game mets 3 85 over giants 3 57 why the mets win this simulation this is where the playoff runs system is going to get accused of being biased in the mets favor no harvey no degrom no matz no wright no walker and these guys are supposed to beat bumgarner well as we learned last year these mets are good fangraphs is fip based so noah syndergaard s 218 strikeouts against 43 walks make him look like a pretty good option in an all or nothing game new york has the better bullpen and a better offense through these two teams hold the bottom two spots in offensive playoff runs home field advantage won t hurt either what the model doesn t consider i m not sure any quantitative model would have predicted any of the three championships the giants have won over the past six years this tends to be the position they find themselves in when they start catching breaks and sneaking past better teams if i knew how to assign points to bruce bochy i d give him some the model also gives no credit to bumgarner s bat which is certainly worth more than nothing american league division series blue jays 13 84 over rangers 11 92 why the blue jays win this simulation the only thing the rangers do well is win that may seem like an excellent formula for playoff success but based on the underlying results this team should have been closer to 500 than the top seed in the al if they hadn t added jonathan lucroy and carlos beltran at the trade deadline they would be by far the worst contender by playoff runs but that improved offense is enough for them to squeak past the orioles meanwhile the blue jays hit better pitch better and play better defense than texas what the model doesn t consider like the orioles the rangers tend to find a way to win the model doesn t love cole hamels because he walked a batter every other inning all year but he prevented runs at an elite level and the lineup behind him is legitimate there s little chance this one matches the intensity of last year s battle but it s likely to be close red sox 16 24 over indians 12 55 why the red sox win this simulation this was a truly great indians team unfortunately playoff runs doesn t see it as a great team now carlos carrasco and yan gomes are out corey kluber isn t likely to be ready for game 1 and danny salazar is hoping to pitch a few innings out of the bullpen cleveland has the third best offense among playoff teams but they re playing the team with the best offense by a crazy margin boston also has far better starting pitching and scores well on defense and in the bullpen what the model doesn t consider craig kimbrel has completely lost the plate over the past week and boston s strong bullpen is far less formidable if he s not throwing strikes kluber could come back to pitch games two and five while eduardo rodriguez and clay buchholz are question marks in boston s rotation andrew miller and cody allen will make terry francona more comfortable in the late innings than he would be if he were still managing the red sox this series won t be the blowout the numbers suggest national league division series cubs 18 21 over mets 13 24 why the cubs win this simulation the mets are good but they re nowhere near cub caliber jake arrieta jon lester and kyle hendricks are all among the best run preventers in major league baseball whether on their own merits or thanks to addison russell jason heyward and company on the field behind them chicago s defense scores more than twice as many playoff runs as any other team still playing their offense paced by likely unanimous mvp kris bryant tops that of everyone but the red sox the only weakness this team has is the letter on their caps what the model doesn t consider that letter on the cubs caps doesn t stand for championship and their opponent is certain to be either the team that swept them out of the playoffs last year or the team that always wins the world series in even years the scariest phrase to a cubs fan right now is probably anything can happen in baseball dodgers 17 90 over nationals 13 33 why the dodgers win this simulation like the cubs these dodgers do everything well the best pitchers in the playoffs by runs above replacement per inning pitched are aroldis chapman kenley jansen andrew miller clayton kershaw zach britton and rich hill you may have noticed that half of them wear dodger blue corey seager joc pederson and justin turner pace the fourth best offense left standing while seager turner and two good catchers lead the third best defense what the model doesn t consider max scherzer may win the nl cy young award and tanner roark is right on his heels if stephen strasburg can come back the model considers him the fourth starter giving him only three innings pitched in the series this team can pitch with la who will depend on more health from kershaw and hill than they got all year trea turner has emerged as a young star and bryce harper s 2016 numbers probably sell short his ability to dominate a playoff series american league championship series red sox 22 51 over blue jays 19 02 why the red sox win this simulation boston s offense is enough to carry them past just about anyone they play excellent defense particularly in the outfield and rick porcello and david price form a formidable one two punch in the rotation as much power as the middle of toronto s lineup packs boston s is just relentless with sandy leon jackie bradley jr and andrew benintendi forming the best bottom three in the playoffs by far what the model doesn t consider again boston s bullpen will have to stare down three great hitters and survive toronto s own offensive attack aaron sanchez marco estrada ja happ and marcus stroman form the deepest rotation on the al side of the playoffs the matchups in games 3 and 4 in toronto would likely favor the jays national league championship series cubs 25 10 over dodgers 24 73 why the cubs win this simulation last year the one surprise revealed by this model was that the mets might have had the best team in the playoffs if there s a surprise this year it s that the dodgers are this close to the cubs kershaw hill and kenta maeda would be a handful for any team and the dodger bats will be a tall order for the cubs pitching and defense but the model still prefers the cubs by a hair due entirely to their otherworldly defense in reality this would be an incredibly fun nlcs with two great rotations and lights out closers trying to lead their respective teams to the world series for the first time in 28 or 71 years what the model doesn t consider immense emotional gravity could pull this series out of the spreadsheets and reward the iron will of whatever team doesn t crack under intense pressure by playoff runs this is the closest matchup of all the series i m predicting capable of swinging on one slider just off the corner that the ump calls a strike or one ball that kicks up the tiniest bit of chalk down the left field line of course if kershaw and hill aren t healthy it might just be a cubs sweep leading us to some more emotional gravity in the form of world series cubs 25 10 over red sox 22 51 why the cubs win this simulation i wonder how many times pundits have predicted this world series since the matchup last happened in 1918 the storylines would be endless the team mired in a 108 year title drought against the te...
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