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description= 4 posts published by Reidar Visser during December 2006;
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iraq, and, for, the, gulf, analysis, archive, december, 2006, archives, categories, meta, my, latest, book, on, amazon, com, twitter, updates, subscribe, recent, posts, timetabled, conditional, surge, strategy, dealing, with, sadrists, study, group, regionalisation, not, balkanisation, federalism, from, below, in, some, historical, comparative, reflections,
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the (697), and (205), for (116), that (114), iraq (100), iraqi (85), with (75), this (65), from (59), would (58), #federalism (45), but (42), was (39), their (38), iqlim (37), some (32), are (32), 2006 (31), has (30), referendum (29), have (28), two (28), not (28), one (27), more (26), may (26), process (24), spain (24), which (24), new (24), regions (24), there (23), had (23), etherington (23), federal (22), regional (22), should (22), politicians (22), level (21), about (21), all (21), even (21), december (21), also (20), such (20), region (20), governorates (20), been (20), any (20), janub (20), united (20), shiite (19), could (19), constitution (18), local (18), political (18), government (18), states (18), surge (18), national (17), sadrists (17), law (16), autonomy (16), into (16), pre (16), governorate (16), were (16), policy (16), other (15), point (15), can (15), many (15), initiative (15), basra (15), poll (15), october (15), its (15), initiatives (15), what (15), they (15), sadrist (15), below (14), will (14), federalisation (14), wasat (14), might (14), issues (13), 2005 (13), today (13), june (13), time (13), 2008 (13), 2010 (13), 2013 (13), these (12), areas (12), current (12), scale (12), most (12), april (12), only (12), forces (12), washington (12), january (12), 2014 (12), 2007 (12), 2009 (12), 2011 (12), 2012 (12), like (11), constitutional (11), under (11), majority (11), than (11), middle (11), najaf (11), baghdad (11), between (11), september (11), kind (11), february (11), situation (11), november (11), august (11), report (10), without (10), administrative (10), politics (10), 2004 (10), state (10), spanish (10), well (10), rafidayn (10), case (10), perhaps (10), south (10), march (10), support (10), same (10), make (10), pro (10), wasit (10), general (10), security (10), reconciliation (10), war (10), control (9), small (9), through (9), whereas (9), far (9), how (9), very (9), those (9), international (9), particular (9), iraqis (9), turn 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tion against this alliance shortly before open unrest began in april 2004 and in a subsequent private crisis meeting with the top sadrist representative in kut the gap between the two sides appeared to be just as unbridgeable as that between the americans and muqtada al sadr s supporters in najaf etherington found the sadrist cleric to be impossibly young and implacably opposed to the foreign forces thus ended the dialogue days later following the arrest of several sadrists in najaf and elsewhere in iraq kut was in armed rebellion and the cpa were forced to temporarily withdraw how could this happen to some extent etherington explains the revolt as a failure to engage the middle classes something which in turn left the opportunists to dominate the scene in his words the jaysh al mahdi danced briefly on a largely empty stage etherington then goes on to describe how in a final push before the june 2004 handover a new provincial governor was selected caucus style to ensure a more meaningful involvement of that important silent majority he carefully details the dilemmas involved in choosing between unrestrained democracy which would always be tempered by the fact that the political parties including the sadrists mostly had militias at their disposal and paternalist efforts to circumvent the opportunists by promoting selected independent candidates outside the parties and without tribal affiliations the outcome of this sort of process could smack of neo imperialism whether intended or not a local representative of the supreme council for the islamic revolution in iraq sciri was sidelined in the wasit council allegedly because the council chairman had indicated that the candidature of this person would be unacceptable to etherington an independent candidate was selected instead apparently to the cpa s satisfaction they had been wary of the influence of the sciri militia to what extent this effort to engage the educated middle classes was truly successful in kut remains a moot point though later in the january 2005 local elections a coalition in which sciri participated would receive around 75 per cent of the vote in wasit whereas the december 2005 parliamentary elections returned a sadrist candidate prominently placed as number two candidate on the united iraqi alliance list in the province on top of this from january to december 2005 the absolute number of secularist voters in wasit was reduced by some 50 per cent even if the cpa may have succeeded in ensuring a head start for those elements they believed to represent the true centre in iraqi politics it seems clear that other forces prevailed in the subsequent period towards the end of 2006 many of the problems discussed by etherington assumed renewed importance today rumours from washington suggest that once more the united states is headed for confrontation with the sadrists leaked policy papers from the national security council indicate us ambitions about some kind of reconfigured iraqi coalition government supposedly a moderate one where the sadrists would be excluded from office this in turn would facilitate a move by the iraqi government possibly aided by a surge of us forces or by what is apparently seen as good militia by washington the pro iranian badr brigades to rein in sadrist paramilitaries which are now considered one of the greatest threats to security in and around baghdad even on the surface such a new coalition would have obvious problems although the parliamentary arithmetic might support it it would be a huge gamble to isolate one of the few blocs inside the iraqi parliament that can claim to have a degree of support on the iraqi streets rumours suggest that the other sadrist grouping the fadila would also remain outside government also it could cause a dramatic reduction of grassroots shiite support for the government without any appreciable strengthening of its sunni level of support reportedly only the iraqi islamic party would be involved in this case a perpetuation of the sunni insurgency along with increased sadrist violence might be expected and this on top of problems already underway in basra with the fadila and above all this would be just another deal among the cadres of the green zone many of them returnees from exile without any substantial links to the millions of ordinary iraqis who care less about ideological bickering and the finer points of federalism than about security and services to a non us observer it really is difficult to grasp the logic of the policy now being proposed still it has to be remembered that to many americans muqtada al sadr means war whereas the rest of the world tended to view the sadrist uprising in spring 2004 as yet another facet of general iraqi discontent about the occupation us media reported it much in terms of a d day operation there were phone ins with agitated citizens on the pros and cons of an advance on najaf and muqtada al sadr was soon portrayed as a demon and arch enemy of the united states ironically muqtada al sadr who is easily the shiite islamist with the most long standing iraqi nationalist credentials is frequently described in such publications as the new york times as pro iranian is there an alternative to the confrontationist position the evidence from the south of iraq is not too promising with another interesting and recent british account that of rory stewart the prince of the marshes and other occupational hazards of a year in iraq clearly demonstrating that a more reconciliatory approach to the sadrists in maysan and dhi qar ultimately did not pay off but there are other cases that can be of interest in basra for instance the fadila party which shares much of the sadrist ideology has at least periodically demonstrated a more businesslike attitude than could be expected on the basis of the anti western rhetoric of their spiritual leader muhammad al yaqubi early in 2006 they claimed to have rejected any oil dealings with the british on account of the occupation but at the same time were happy to publicise their alleged oil contacts with the russians and whereas the increasing involvement of sadrists in government in baghdad has mostly been portrayed as an appropriation of government property for the sake of party and militia interests there is also a different aspect to this last summer western media made much of the resignation from government service by a leading christian iraqi archaeologist it was alleged that iraq s cultural heritage was coming under threat from sadrists who now had come in control via the ministry of tourism on closer inspection however it emerged that the main complaint concerned a shift of emphasis from classical mesopotamian to islamic archaeology surely in the bigger scheme of things a temporary decline in babylonian archaeology in favour of a focus on islamic medieval artefacts might be a price worth paying for a sadrist move from armed uprising to participation in government unless the united states pursues a policy that stimulates the sadrists to take part in government in a responsible manner it may soon be facing the same kind of challenge as that described in etherington s book uprisings on two fronts any increase of troops levels that comes without some serious attention to political reform would simply mean more of the same even if us forces should prove capable of handling increased sadrist militancy they would wake up to unchanged realities on the ground in iraq once the surge was over it is conceivable that the united states might be able to engineer a ceasefire within the iraqi parliament and install an eggshell coalition of nominally pro us politicians but this would be an arrangement whose expiry date would coincide with the end of the proposed surge on the whole the united states would remain locked in its current predicament it is being held hostage to iraqi politicians who are not working in accordance with their professed ideals of iraqi nationalism instead they are exploiting the open ended us military commitment to pursue their own narrow party interests the only way a troop surge could possibly succeed would be to firmly align it with the vision that washington ostensibly supports iraqi nationalism the point of departure would be the realisation that american and iraqi interests in many ways coincide like iraqi nationalists the united states is seeking a unified non sectarian iraq and by now it has understood mostly that other declared war aims such as a model democracy for the middle east or even a torch of secularism in the region are distinctly unrealistic the bush administration should therefore start by admitting in a very public manner that grave mistakes in the conduct of the iraq war have created a situation in which the american presence has had a destructive rather than a unifying effect and that the current policy is working to the detriment of both iraqi and american interests to boost troop levels in the current situation without at the same time addressing fundamental issues of national reconciliation would simply perpetuate and augment the artificial sectarianism that has exploded in iraqi politics over the past years similarly to rely exclusively on the baker hamilton recommendation of increased regional diplomacy in itself a commendable proposal would probably be difficult given the likely lapse of time before real results with the potential to induce national reconciliation in iraq would filter through any credible troop surge then would have to be moulded as a one off project to try to open a new chapter in us iraqi relations if attempted it should consist of a herculean effort in which the united states would undertake to make available the very best of its mighty resources to create the sort of post 1945 european reconstruction climate that it should have aimed at once the fateful decision to go to war was taken back in 2003 this would mean more troops temporarily but such an increase would make sense only in the context of a definitive timetable for the surge including substantial and speedy reductions after the surge phase to levels far below current ones as well as specific guarantees and limits concerning foreign bases and foreign advisers two factors which historically have provoked allergic reactions among iraqis and have made many of their governments worthless in the eyes of the general public but with this kind of concessions to iraqi nationalism washington would also be in a position to make certain demands on the iraqi government in return for the investment any surge should be made conditional on immediate constitutional and legal reform to defuse sectarianism and to get all components of iraqi society back to the table in particular there would need to be real concessions on the part of the forces that have so far dominated the constitutional and legislative process the two biggest kurdish parties and sciri over issues like de baathification militias and federalism importantly the united states would be able to appeal to popular iraqi nationalist sentiment on this whereas politicians in the green zone have made federalism and de baathification into holy cows most ordinary iraqis south of kurdistan i e those who actually experienced the baathist regime of the 1990s do not care a fig for federalism and know well that most of the population at some point had to engage in dealings with the former regime only in this way would the quarrelsome elite politicians of the iraqi parliament come under some substantial pressure from below it would become painfully clear that by insisting on their narrow pet projects and various causes célèbres they are effectively hindering national reconciliation diminishing the prospects for a reduction of foreign troops levels and preventing all iraqis from sharing the oil income that theoretically could have made them into one of the wealthiest nations in the region by pursuing this kind of policy the united states might be able to turn nationalism into a formidable tailwind for its reconstruction efforts in iraq but this would require a serious rethink in washington above all the bush administration must realise that it needs to prioritise the real components of iraqi society like the powerful sadrist base instead of seeking hollow truces among elite politicians jostling for positions in the iraqi government posted in uia dynamics us policy in iraq leverage issues comments off on a strategy for dealing with the sadrists the iraq study group regionalisation not balkanisation posted by reidar visser on wednesday 6 december 2006 20 06 in a remarkable rejection of partitionist winds that have blown through america over the past year the iraq study group isg in its report of 6 december 2006 recommended a final big push for the iraqi national reconciliation process with the collective effort of regional powers as a potential catalyst as far as state structure issues are concerned partition or any kind of unconstitutional federalisation whether from above by iraqi elite politicians or on the basis of foreign advice was apparently never taken seriously by the isg already prior to the release of the report a few members of the isg working groups had complained to the press that they had felt marginalised during the process and that their proposals never truly came on the agenda the report itself rather brusquely dismisses the prospect of devolution to three regions p 43 citing arguments that for once are almost identical to those of the bush administration practical infeasibility and the dangers of greater regional chaos elsewhere the report mostly shuns the federalisation question with the implicit message that the isg envisages this process to stay on track according to the constitution outside kurdistan federal decentralisation is optional not mandatory and if it is to be done it will start by initiatives from below in the iraqi governorates not by baghdad politicians or by outsiders with plans for iraq instead the report advocates a serious attempt to get the national reconciliation process back on track especially as regards re inclusion of the sunnis to facilitate this it proposes new initiatives at several levels perhaps most significantly there are proposals to work for greater regional momentum that could be conducive to a more peaceful iraq the isg advocates the creation of an international support group for iraq that would include neighbouring states which in a collective forum might be able to transcend some of their narrow interests linked to their particular protégées inside iraq importantly active steps to progress in the wider arab israeli conflict and the palestine issue are recognised as a central pillar for improving the regional atmosphere the isg also suggests that the iraqi government itself is not doing enough to drive the national reconciliation effort forward it focuses on the need for rapprochement with the marginalised sunnis and introduces several new ...
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